Preprints
There are 6976 Preprints listed.
Large-scale Climate Modes Drive Low-frequency Regional Arctic Sea Ice Variability
Published: 2023-06-01
Subjects: Climate
Summer Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly but with superimposed variability on multiple timescales that introduces large uncertainties into projections of future sea ice loss. To better understand what drives at least part of this variability, we show how a simple linear model can link dominant modes of climate variability to low-frequency regional Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies. [...]
Using Detrending to Assess SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Loads as a Leading Indicator of Fluctuations in COVID-19 Cases at Fine Temporal Scales: Correlations Across Twenty Sewersheds in North Carolina
Published: 2023-06-02
Subjects: Public Health
Wastewater surveillance emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic as a novel strategy for tracking the burden of illness in communities. Previous work has shown that trends in wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral loads correlate well with reported COVID-19 case trends over longer time periods (i.e., months). We used detrending time series to reveal shorter sub-trend patterns (i.e., weeks) to identify leads or [...]
A city-wide emissions inventory of plastic pollution
Published: 2023-06-02
Subjects: Environmental Sciences
A global agreement on plastic should have quantitative reduction targets for emissions of plastic pollution and regular measurements to track success. Here, we present a framework for measuring plastic emissions, akin to greenhouse gas emissions, and demonstrate its utility by calculating a baseline measurement for the city of Toronto in Ontario, Canada. We identify relevant sources of plastic [...]
Despite a century of warming, increased snowfall has buffered the ice phenology of North America’s largest high-elevation lake against climate change
Published: 2023-06-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Lakes are sentinels of environmental change. In cold climates, lake ice phenology—the timing and duration of ice cover during winter—is a key control on ecosystem function. Ice phenology is likely driven by a complex interplay between physical characteristics and climatic conditions. Under climate change, lakes are generally freezing later, melting out earlier, and experiencing a shorter duration [...]
Enhancing Flood Risk Assessment Through Machine Learning and Open Data
Published: 2023-06-02
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring
Urban flooding causes billions of dollars in damages annually, with severe flood events becoming more frequent and destructive as our climate changes. While extreme weather is a primary driver of flooding, its consequences depend on the interconnectedness of urban systems - referred to as the Urban Multiplex, which includes the power grid, transportation network, natural surface water and [...]
ChatGPT as a mapping assistant: A novel method to enrich maps with generative AI and content derived from street-level photographs
Published: 2023-06-05
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Computer Sciences, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Other Computer Sciences, Other Geography, Spatial Science
This paper explores the concept of leveraging generative AI as a mapping assistant for enhancing the efficiency of collaborative mapping. We present results of an experiment that combines multiple sources of volunteered geographic information (VGI) and large language models (LLMs). Three analysts described the content of crowdsourced Mapillary street-level photographs taken along roads in a small [...]
Ensemble modeling of the two-dimensional stochastic confined groundwater flow through the evolution of the hydraulic head's probability density function
Published: 2023-06-05
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering
Groundwater storage in aquifers has become a vital water source due to water scarcity in recent years. However, aquifer systems are full of uncertainties, which inevitably propagate throughout the modeling computations, mainly reducing the reliability of the model output. This study develops a novel two-dimensional stochastic confined groundwater flow model. The proposed model is developed by [...]
Learning generative models for geostatistical facies simulation based on a single training image
Published: 2023-06-02
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Characterization of subsurface reservoirs often requires geological facies models to identify areas with favorable rock properties. With the development of computing powers, deep learning approaches, such as the generative adversarial networks (GANs), became widely used for simulating complex geological models. However, training of the GANs typically requires a large quantity of training data for [...]
Crowded and warmer: unequal dengue risk at high spatial resolution across a megacity of India
Published: 2023-06-02
Subjects: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
The role of climate factors on transmission of mosquito-borne infections within urban landscapes must be considered in the context of the pronounced spatial heterogeneity of such environments. Socio-demographic and environmental variation challenge control efforts for emergent arboviruses, a major class of pathogens responsible for dengue, Zika and chikungunya, transmitted via the urban mosquito [...]
Diamond open access with preregistration: a new publishing model for palaeontology
Published: 2023-06-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Paleontology
The current academic publishing model is systemically unfit for purpose. The academic publishing ecosystem is dominated by a few large for-profit publishing houses which, at every stage of the publication process, transform academic work and public resources into private profit. Although extracting substantial profits, these publishing houses themselves add little value to the final published [...]
Is Snow Drought a Messenger for the Upcoming Severe Drought Period? A Case Study in the Upper Mississippi River Basin
Published: 2023-06-03
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Water Resource Management
The exacerbation of floods and the extension of droughts, attributed to climate change and other human-induced factors, are posing a substantial risk to communities by causing water scarcity and insecurity. The significance of safeguarding water resources and managing them is increasingly gaining prominence. Snow is an efficient source of water for recharging groundwater compared to rainfall. [...]
Universal techniques for mineral identification in thin-section
Published: 2023-06-08
Subjects: Education, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Mineral identification using an optical microscope forms a key part of every introductory course in Earth Sciences. The presence or absence of particular minerals and their textural relationships to one another - that is, the visual impression of the size, shape, and arrangement of grains/crystals/particles in a rock - act as keys to the origin and evolution of the Earth system. Indeed, many [...]
Assessing Decadal Variability of Subseasonal Forecasts of Opportunity using Explainable AI
Published: 2023-06-07
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Identifying predictable states of the climate system allows for enhanced prediction skill on the generally low-skill subseasonal timescale via forecasts with higher confidence and accuracy, known as forecasts of opportunity. This study takes a neural network approach to explore decadal variability of subseasonal predictability, particularly during forecasts of opportunity. Specifically, this work [...]
Non-structural Flood Mitigation Optimization at Community Scale: Middle Cedar Case Study
Published: 2023-06-07
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Risk Analysis
Flooding is the leading natural hazard in Iowa and has resulted in billions of dollars of damage to properties and critical infrastructure over the past couple of decades. Land alterations, urbanization, and changing precipitation regimes increase the magnitude and frequency of flood events. Considering the increasing risk, flood mitigation efforts are significant to reduce future losses. In this [...]
Assessment of Oceanographic Conditions during the North Atlantic EXport Processes in the Ocean from RemoTe Sensing (EXPORTS) Field Campaign
Published: 2023-06-07
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
This manuscript presents an overview of NASA’s EXport Processes in the Ocean from Remote Sensing 2021 Field Campaign in the North Atlantic (EXPORTS NA) and provides quantitative and dynamical descriptions of the physical processes modulating water transformations during the study. A major programmatic goal was to conduct the sampling in a Lagrangian mode so that ocean ecological and [...]