Preprints
There are 7999 Preprints listed.
A new method of assessing Climate Sensitivity.
Published: 2025-07-22
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Planetary Sciences
Abstract— The IPCC regards carbon dioxide as the most relevant driver of climate warming and their Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) refines this to a likely range of 2.5°C to 4.0°C and a very likely range of 2.0°C to 5.0°C for climate sensitivity to a doubling of present levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Since this is a very large range the need exists to find a method to better quantify climate [...]
A Search for Life in the Universe Advances Life on Earth
Published: 2025-07-21
Subjects: Planetary Biogeochemistry, Planetary Geochemistry, Planetary Sciences
Astrobiology, while traditionally focused on understanding the origin of life on Earth and the potential for life elsewhere, offers powerful tools and insights for addressing urgent challenges on our planet. This perspective, written by early career researchers, calls for a deliberate integration of astrobiological research with applied sciences in environmental engineering, biotechnology, and [...]
Improving Integrated Vapour Transport Forecasts over the Himalayas Using a Convolutional Neural Network for Better Atmospheric River Prediction
Published: 2026-06-27
Subjects: Engineering
Extreme precipitation over the Himalayas is often linked to Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) interacting with its unique and complex topography. The topographic complexity and sparse observational data pose a challenge for numerical weather prediction models. We find that the widely used Global Forecast System (GFS) exhibits systematic errors in high-magnitude Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT), and its [...]
Impacts of zonal SST gradients on subtropical highs and implications for early season tropical cyclone landfall frequency
Published: 2025-07-25
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Tropical cyclone (TC) seasonal landfall probability is challenging to forecast because of the limited seasonal predictability of steering flow patterns. Past studies mainly focus on the large-scale ocean and atmospheric conditions that lead to changes in seasonal tropical cyclone genesis frequency in a given basin, but less attention has focused on seasonal landfall probability inherent to [...]
Machine learning estimates for G20 subnational GHG emissions from 2000-2020 using self-reported emissions data
Published: 2025-07-23
Subjects: Social and Behavioral Sciences
Reliable, comparable greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions data at the subnational level remain scarce, despite growing expectations for cities and regions to lead on climate action. Inconsistent reporting, methodological variation, and limited coverage of self-reported inventories hinder efforts to track progress and guide mitigation opportunities. To address these challenges, we develop a machine [...]
Gauging the Effectiveness and Translatability of Oil Spill Response Technologies to Plastic Pellet Spills
Published: 2025-07-25
Subjects: Engineering
Plastic pellet spills are a growing environmental concern, yet response strategies remain limited and poorly adapted. This study evaluates whether existing oil spill recovery tools, including booms, skimmers, and specialized vessels, can be repurposed to respond to acute releases of plastic pellets. Plastic pellets, while small (typically 1–5 mm in diameter), are characterized by complex physical [...]
Validation Challenges in Large-Scale Tree Crown Segmentations from Remote Sensing Imagery Using Deep Learning: A Case Study in Germany
Published: 2025-07-25
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Forest Sciences
Deep-learning–based individual tree-crown (ITC) mapping has become increasingly prominent in remote sensing, yet rigorous validation of these predictions at large spatial scales remains challenging. Using data from an extensive case study involving the mapping of approximately 218.7 million trees across the German federal states of Sachsen and Sachsen-Anhalt from multispectral aerial imagery, [...]
Forest or tundra? How different vegetation reconstructions of Last Glacial landscapes in Europe may shape our perception of early human dispersal processes
Published: 2026-05-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geography, Human Geography, Nature and Society Relations, Paleobiology, Paleontology, Physical and Environmental Geography
Regional variability and long-term changes of past ecosystems likely had a strong impact on hunter-gatherer population dynamics, including the expansion of anatomically modern humans and the disappearance of Neanderthals. However, our understanding of these ecosystems remains limited, even when looking at large-scale patterns, such as the extent and distribution of forested areas. Vegetation [...]
A Spatial Analysis of the Groundwater Emergence Flood Hazard in Long Island, New York and near Coastal Areas Surrounding Long Island Sound in New York, Connecticut, and Rhode Island
Published: 2025-07-25
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Long Island, New York and near coastal areas surrounding Long Island Sound are densely populated and, like other coastal areas, are susceptible to flooding from several potential sources, including stormwater from precipitation events, tidal flooding and storm surge, and groundwater inundation or groundwater emergence flooding. The latter refers to the intersection of a rising water table with [...]
Only half of the calories produced on croplands are available for human consumption
Published: 2025-07-24
Subjects: Agriculture, Sustainability
Managing limited agricultural land to feed a growing population with changing diets requires understanding and managing tradeoffs associated with how crops are utilized. Here, we quantify the impact of how 50 crops are used for food, livestock feed, biofuels, and other non-food uses on available calories from 2010 to 2020. We find that, although total calorie production increased by 23.9% from [...]
Regionally divergent drivers behind transgressions of the freshwater change planetary boundary
Published: 2025-07-31
Subjects: Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Human-driven freshwater change contributes to elevated Earth system risks. Here, we advance the understanding of drivers behind the transgression of the planetary boundary for freshwater change (PB-FW), based on historical (1901–2019) streamflow (blue water) and soil moisture (green water) simulations from a large ensemble of global hydrological models. Since the former estimate ending in 2005, [...]
High Awareness, Limited Action: Explaining Attitudinal Barriers to Climate Mitigation in Academia
Published: 2026-05-23
Subjects: Higher Education
General support for climate action is widely expressed within academia and public research, with surveys consistently reporting exceptionally high levels of awareness and concern about the climate crisis. Yet, the implementation of mitigation policies in universities and research institutions remains limited. Drawing on a national survey of 4,688 academics and research personnel in France, we [...]
Analysis of Long-term Trends and Variability of Sea Surface Chlorophyll-a and Temperature in The Northern Papua Sea, Indonesia
Published: 2025-07-25
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Chlorophyll-a serves as an important proxy for marine ecological productivity, and its dynamics playing pivotal role in the marine productivity, especially within the coral biodiversity hotspot such as Coral Triangle’s Northern Papua Sea (NPS). Consequently, elucidating the dynamics in such region is essential. This work aims to investigate the long-term trends and variability of the sea surface [...]
Impact of Spatially Continuous Urban Surface Properties on Heatwave Simulations: A Multi-City Analysis
Published: 2025-07-25
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences
Urban areas are unique in form and function, and representing them in process-based models requires prescribing facet-level morphological and radiative properties, among others. Most urban canopy models prescribe these by density class or local climate zone (LCZ), assigning identical values across broad regions or worldwide. However, properties can vary widely between and within cities. Global [...]
Shear localization and its impact on mass-transport complexes seal potential: insights from geophysical datasets
Published: 2025-07-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Sedimentology
Mass-transport complexes (MTCs), the deposits of submarine slope failures and common features of sedimentary basins worldwide, can act as effective seals for hydrocarbons and carbon sequestration due to shear-induced overcompaction. However, seal failure is occasionally observed in specific parts of MTCs, leading to hydrocarbon and carbon dioxide leakage, and posing potential threats to seabed [...]