Preprints
There are 7999 Preprints listed.
Projected spatial reorganization of Köppen–Geiger climate zones under climate change and consequences for population and economic exposure
Published: 2026-02-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Sustainability
Climate change is expected to reorganize macro-climatic regimes at the planetary scale, with implications that extend beyond physical climate variables to the spatial configuration of human systems. While projected shifts in temperature and precipitation are well documented, their translation into categorical climate-regime transitions and associated socio-economic exposure remains insufficiently [...]
Quantifying the Causal Strength of Compound Drought–Heatwaves: Implications for Fire Events and Cropland Productivity
Published: 2026-02-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events represent one of the most disruptive forms of climate extremes, as the simultaneous occurrence of dry and hot conditions signifies their impacts far beyond those of individual events. Yet, despite their increasing significance, the causal influence of CDHW frequency and severity on fire activity and crop yield variability remains poorly quantified, [...]
Nickel Isotope Systematics in the Talvivaara Paleoproterozoic Black Shale Deposit Reveal Mineralogy-Controlled Fractionation with a Preserved Biogenic Signal
Published: 2026-04-01
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Nickel isotope systematics in sediment-hosted sulfide deposits are now more commonly used to infer redox and diagenetic processes, yet their potential to record biological signals and their preservation through diagenesis and metamorphism remains poorly constrained. Here we present micro-scale coupled δ60Ni, δ34S, δ13C, REE pattern, and paleoproductivity proxy data from the Paleoproterozoic [...]
Robust Uneven Shift of Extreme Storm Surges Observed in Data Sparse Northeast Indian Ocean Cities
Published: 2026-03-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability
Reanalysis-driven storm surge datasets enable extreme analysis, but previous studies translate these time series into extremes using a single statistical model, leaving model-selection uncertainty unquantified. In this study, we analyze ERA5-forced surge residual dataset (1950–2024) from Copernicus Climate Change Service for data-sparse 11 Northeast Indian Ocean (NIO) cities using an ensemble of [...]
Changing the Chilly Climate: Observations on Gender Diversity and Inclusion at a Geoscience Conference in the Netherlands
Published: 2026-04-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Higher Education, Social and Behavioral Sciences
The aim of this study was to observe audience participation in a conference where the planned structures (presenters, keynotes and chairs) had an equal gender balance. The collected data can give an indication of the effectiveness of diversity and inclusion initiatives beyond the planned structures of the conference itself. We observed behaviours of attendees of the annual Dutch Earth and [...]
Open-source GIS-Based Multi-Criteria Flood Risk Model for data-constrained environments
Published: 2026-03-11
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Flooding poses a major hazard across diverse environments and can be particularly difficult to estimate in urban/urbanizing cities without detailed hydrodynamic data/models. This paper presents a GIS-based, multi-criteria model that integrates openly available hydrological, soil, land cover, and drainage network data to produce a relative Flood Risk Index (FRI) at high spatial resolution. A [...]
Emergent Spatio-Semantic Structure in Large Language Model Embedding Spaces
Published: 2026-02-23
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Geographic Information Sciences
Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used in geospatial applications typically as generators of geographic text or as natural language interfaces to spatial data. Here, we explore whether LLM embedding spaces can instead function as geospatial representations that can be exploited directly. Using embeddings extracted from Airbnb property descriptions in London, we show that [...]
Stealth pressurisation of boiling magma limits geodetic detectability of volcanic eruptions
Published: 2026-03-11
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Volcanology
Crystallisation-driven volatile exsolution (second boiling) is widely invoked to pressurise shallow magma reservoirs, yet its ability to generate eruption-triggering overpressure and detectable ground deformation is poorly quantified. We couple phase equilibria with thermal and viscoelastic models of sill-like intrusions to map pressure evolution and geodetic detectability of second boiling. [...]
Redox-network reconfiguration inferred from the ln[O2]-Eh relationship under mixed-potential conditions in a shallow pond time series
Published: 2025-11-23
Subjects: Biogeochemistry
Oxidation-reduction potential (Eh) is widely used as an in situ indicator of redox conditions in aquatic environments, and field electrodes typically record a mixed potential generated by multiple concurrent interfacial redox reactions. Beyond a simple Nernstian interpretation based on a single redox couple, here we ask what mechanistic information can be extracted from an observed relationship [...]
Aligning emissions with decisionmaking: estimating urban contributions to global carbon dioxide emissions
Published: 2025-05-08
Subjects: Social and Behavioral Sciences
Urban areas are widely viewed as central to the global carbon challenge, yet estimates of the urban contribution to global CO2 emissions vary substantially because studies define “urban” and allocate emissions using different boundaries and accounting perspectives. We address this challenge by introducing a globally consistent, administrative-boundary framework that aligns emissions with [...]
Mapping Temperature Deviation and Elderly Vulnerability using Open Source Technology: A One-Week Analysis of Manhattan, New York City
Published: 2026-02-23
Subjects: Geographic Information Sciences, Nature and Society Relations, Remote Sensing
This paper outlines a research method for collecting, analyzing, and visualizing real-time temperature data for cities using open data and open source technology. The system collects temperature data for each census tract in Manhattan three times daily via the OpenWeather API and stores observations in a PostgreSQL/PostGIS database. A one-week pilot study (November 15-22, 2025) analyzed 8,990 [...]
Analysis of the potential of NLP techniques to identify climate change themes in Canadian social media textual content
Published: 2026-06-17
Subjects: Environmental Studies
Social media discussions about climate change offer valuable insights into how the public views climate issues and their willingness to engage in personal climate actions. Understanding individual climate actions is crucial because households are responsible for more than 70% of global carbon emissions, and lifestyle changes alone can reduce carbon emissions by approximately 15%. This research [...]
A Foundational Synthesis of Ecosystem Services Knowledge to Critically Assess and Structure Their Integration into Life Cycle Impact Assessment
Published: 2026-05-11
Subjects: Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment
Purpose: The integration of ecosystem services in life cycle assessment has gained increasing attention. Its operationalization remains limited and inconsistent, particularly within the impact assessment phase. This study provides the first comprehensive and structured critical review that bridges foundational ecosystem services knowledge with life cycle assessment modeling needs. Method: We [...]
Extrapolation Approaches for Creating Comprehensive Measurement-Based Methane Emissions Inventories
Published: 2025-06-07
Subjects: Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Oil, Gas, and Energy
Measurement-based methane emissions inventories are essential for U.S. oil and natural gas operators to track their progress toward emissions targets, demonstrate the impact of improved operational and monitoring practices, and enable the scientific community to monitor methane budgets at various scales. However, translating raw emission measurement data, whether from continuous monitoring [...]
Interactions between human activities and natural processes shape specific conductance and ion composition of United States lakes
Published: 2024-08-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Specific conductance (SC) and major ions are important water quality constituents and key indicators of freshwater salinization. Being relatively conservative and less influenced by biological activity, they integrate hydrologic, climatic, and anthropogenic influences, allowing us to track and understand lake responses to global change. However, the patterns and drivers of macroscale (regional to [...]