Preprints
There are 6976 Preprints listed.
Crowdsourced air temperature data for the evaluation of urban microscale simulations: Insights into spatiotemporal patterns from three German cities
Published: 2026-03-10
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Rapid development of microscale urban climate models in recent years requires ongoing model evaluation under different scenarios and conditions. In a previous study, we utilised crowdsourced air temperature data from Netatmo citizen weather stations (CWS) for the evaluation of the PALM model during a hot summer day in the city of Bochum, Germany. The data proved valuable due to their high spatial [...]
Application of statistical downscaling models to assess climate change impacts on the East Rapti River Basin using the Rx5day index
Published: 2026-03-10
Subjects: Statistics and Probability
A landlocked, mountains-dominated country, Nepal is one such country that is highly susceptible to climate change. The East Rapti River Basin (ERRB), a sensitive corridor, is under extreme threats due to flooding as well as rainfall variability. The study aims to evaluate the performance of the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in simulating historical rainfall and to project future changes in [...]
Structural–carbon decoupling and forest structural thinning in degrading forests of Southwestern Nigeria using GEDI LiDAR and multi-sensor data fusion
Published: 2026-04-13
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geography
Accurate monitoring of forest degradation requires indicators that capture both structural condition and carbon dynamics. While canopy height derived from spaceborne LiDAR is widely used as a proxy for forest condition, its ability to represent aboveground biomass (AGB) under ongoing degradation remains uncertain. This study examines the relationship between canopy height and AGB in tropical [...]
Thoughts on prognostically modeling an eddying double-gyre ensemble mean
Published: 2025-11-06
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We address the question of separating the ocean’s deterministic response to time-dependent forcing from its intrinsic chaotic variability. Because the forcing is neither stationary nor periodic and spatial homogeneity is precluded by both the forcing pattern and boundary conditions, statistical analysis must rely on ensemble averaging. Here, we define this as the arithmetic mean over realizations [...]
Stable isotopic composition, paleoecology, and habitat of the ammonite Sphenodiscus lobatus in the Late Cretaceous (Maastrichtian) Western Interior Seaway
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Paleobiology, Paleontology, Sedimentology
Despite their abundance as fossils, the life histories of ammonites are still poorly understood. We analyzed the oxygen (δ18O) and carbon (δ13C) isotopic composition of well-preserved shell material taken from different growth stages of the streamlined oxyconic ammonite species Sphenodiscus lobatus from the Upper Cretaceous (Maastrichtian) Pierre Shale and Fox Hills Formation of South Dakota. [...]
Bayesian Calibration of dynamic models of earthquake sequences using observations from past large earthquakes
Published: 2026-04-01
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Physics-based models of the earthquake cycle could be used for time-dependent hazard assessment. For such an application, their parameters must be calibrated so that simulated earthquake sequences reproduce the statistics of past earthquakes, including recurrence statistics and magnitudes. This is challenging because the dynamics are described by nonlinear partial differential equations, initial [...]
Fault-mediated magma propagation and triggered seismicity revealed by the 2022 São Jorge Azores unrest
Published: 2024-12-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure, Volcanology
Understanding failed volcanic eruptions is key to mapping magma plumbing and forecasting hazards. Faults and fractures guide magma, but their mechanisms remain unclear due to the lack of precise earthquake locations and limited 3-D fault mapping in volcanic regions. The triple-junction setting of the Azores Archipelago, where volcanic systems and seismogenic faults coexist, offers a natural [...]
Temporal Analysis of Site-Level Methane Emissions from Nearly One Thousand Upstream Oil and Gas Facilities Equipped with Fixed-Point Continuous Monitoring Systems
Published: 2026-03-18
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Temporal variability in methane emissions from oil and gas facilities may significantly impact the accuracy of measurement-based emissions inventories and the effectiveness of measurement-based mitigation policies. Yet the existing knowledge of duration, frequency, and magnitude of emission events remains very limited. A deeper understanding of these temporal characteristics is therefore [...]
Fine-scale Segmentation and Spatiotemporal Variability of the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule Aftershock Sequence Revealed by a Deep-Learning-Based Earthquake Catalog
Published: 2025-03-18
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We re-examine the aftershock sequence of the Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake in south-central Chile to understand how seismicity, magnitude-frequency distribution, and fault structure vary along the rupture zone. Using the International Maule Aftershock Deployment (IMAD) dataset, we analyze ten months of continuous data from approximately 156 temporary stations and build a high-resolution aftershock [...]
Drought Adaptation Mapping in the Southern African Development Community: a review
Published: 2026-03-11
Subjects: Environmental Studies
Evidence on how people adapt to drought frequency and severity is expanding, yet remains fragmented and insufficiently informative for assessing progress, limits, equity, and key priorities. Previous global syntheses demonstrate that adaptation is occurring but provide limited insight into how, where, for whom, and with what risks. This scoping review addresses these gaps by mapping peer-reviewed [...]
Increased precipitation in NW Europe triggered by the Hudson Bay Ice Saddle collapse
Published: 2026-02-25
Subjects: Earth Sciences
The collapse of the Hudson Bay Ice Saddle (HBIS), whose freshwater signal is dated between 8.6 and 8.5 ka b2k, is increasingly viewed as the primary driver of the abrupt '8.2 ka' cooling anomaly. Yet linking the two implies that the climatic repercussion of the HBIS collapse lagged by centuries – a delay at odds with some climate models projecting that meltwater forcing can influence climate [...]
vathra.xyz — Crowdsourced Monitoring of Greece's Geodetic Heritage: Architecture, Empirical Results, and Legal Framework
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Other Earth Sciences, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Greece's national trigonometric network comprises 25,258 geodetic survey points established by the Hellenic Military Geographical Service (HMGS/GYS). This paper presents vathra.xyz, an open-source web platform for crowdsourced condition monitoring of these points using Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) methods. We describe the system architecture (React, PostGIS, Leaflet, browser-based AR [...]
Processing flaws and uneven Sentinel-1 coverage distort global flood trend interpretations
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Hydrology
Can We Evaluate the Effectiveness of Diverting Agent Only by Hydraulic Fracturing Pressure Signals
Published: 2026-02-05
Subjects: Mining Engineering
Conventional industry practice evaluates the effectiveness of diverting agents in hydraulic fracturing of oil and gas wells by monitoring treatment pressure, predicated on the assumption that a pressure increase signifies the successful plugging of dominant fractures and subsequent fluid diversion. This study critically examines the reliability of using pressure response as a sole diagnostic [...]
A Scalable Borehole Thermometry Framework for Process-Based Monitoring of Near-Surface Thermal Dynamics Across Polar and High-Mountain Cryosphere Systems
Published: 2026-02-26
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics
Rapid climate warming is fundamentally altering the thermal structure and stability of glaciers, ice sheets, and ice shelves across polar and high-mountain environments. While satellite remote sensing and surface meteorological networks provide essential observations of atmospheric forcing and surface conditions, the near-surface subsurface layer (approximately 0–3 m depth)—where energy is [...]