Preprints
There are 6976 Preprints listed.
High-resolution agent-based modelling of non-exhaust emissions reveals the limits of urban fleet electrification
Published: 2026-02-26
Subjects: Environmental Health and Protection
As exhaust emissions decline, non-exhaust emissions (NEEs) from brake and tyre wear are emerging as the dominant source of traffic-related particulate matter. This transition is complicated by the increasing mass of electric vehicles and the push toward high-capacity public transport. We introduce a high-resolution, moving-observer agent-based model calibrated against hyperlocal Google Air View [...]
Paleo- and Neo-Tethyan subducted slabs beneath the Eastern Mediterranean region
Published: 2026-02-26
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The late Paleozoic to recent Alpine-Himalayan orogen contains the geological remnants of subducted lithosphere of the Paleotethys and Neotethys oceans and of microcontinents within these. Along its ~12,000 km length, this orogenic belt is divided into segments marked by abrupt changes along-strike. These discontinuities align with paleo-transform faults, across which the histories of ocean [...]
The biodiversity paradox: declining conservation discourse amid ecological crisis in global urban policies
Published: 2026-04-24
Subjects: Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Despite escalating biodiversity crises, conservation discourse in urban environmental policies has declined, revealing a governance paradox in which ecological urgency is inversely correlated with policy representation. We analyzed 202 urban environmental policies from 85 countries spanning 1984-2025 using computational text analysis (LDA, NMF, hierarchical clustering). The results reveal an [...]
Foreshock Acceleration Linked to Slow Earthquakes Before a Large Earthquake: Implications for Two-Stage Aseismic Processes
Published: 2026-02-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Foreshocks are important for understanding the initiation process of large earthquakes. It has long been suggested that the acceleration of foreshock activity is driven by precursory aseismic fault slip. However, observational evidence supporting this relationship remains limited. Furthermore, while slow earthquakes—diverse low-velocity fault slip phenomena—frequently occur at plate boundaries, [...]
Error-aware surrogate modeling for accelerated three-dimensional probabilistic inversion of controlled-source electromagnetic data
Published: 2026-02-26
Subjects: Education, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We present a workflow for three-dimensional probabilistic inversion of controlled-source electromagnetic data that effectively balances accuracy and computational efficiency. The approach mitigates the high computational cost of forward modeling by employing a surrogate model derived from a mesh coarsening strategy. To account for the modeling errors inherent to this approximation, we implement a [...]
Introducing Difference: from Euclidean Space to Geological Limits
Published: 2026-01-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Lithotectonic Framework (LTF) provides a systematic approach to describing regional geology in terms of geological history. While LTF has been applied to vocabulary development and regional geological description, its theoretical foundations have remained undocumented. This paper introduces the Spatio-Temporal Framework (STF), which extends Euclidean geometry by adding 'difference' as a [...]
Interpretable Relations between Tropical Sea Surface Temperature and U.S. Precipitation in Winter Season Forecasts
Published: 2026-03-13
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We explore the large-scale relations between anomalies of global tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and U.S. precipitation to assess the sources of December-February (DJF) predictability and skill. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is applied to forecasts from NOAA's latest seasonal prediction system, the Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research (SPEAR). We find that DJF [...]
Natural organic matter coating changes the role of iron oxides in carbon preservation in marine sediments
Published: 2026-04-08
Subjects: Biogeochemistry
Preservation of organic carbon (OC) in marine and terrestrial depositional settings is enhanced by the association between OC and reactive iron oxides. However, microbially mediated iron reduction in anoxic marine sediments may lead to the reductive dissolution of iron oxides and consequently to the remobilization of iron-associated organic matter. The underlying mechanism remains poorly studied. [...]
Comprehensive Inventory of Coseismic Landslides Triggered by the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes, Türkiye
Published: 2026-03-19
Subjects: Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology
We provide two geospatial inventories covering ~80,000 km² in southern Türkiye for the 6 February 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence: (i) a coseismic landslide polygon inventory including 20,270 landslides and (ii) a pre-earthquake geomorphic inventory of pre-existing slope instability including 4,495 landslide polygons. Coseismic landslides were mapped by systematic expert visual [...]
The Response of Onset and Withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon to Volcanic Aerosols
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
Large volcanic eruptions are a source of climate variability, affecting the seasonal mean precipitation of the Indian summer monsoon. However, the extent to which changes in seasonal precipitation can be attributed to variations in monsoon length vs. monsoon intensity has remained unclear. Using large ensemble simulations of idealised volcanic eruptions at varying latitudes, we find that the [...]
Frictional weakening in the highly mobile 2025 Blatten (Switzerland) rock–ice avalanche
Published: 2026-03-17
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Dynamics and Dynamical Systems, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Geotechnical Engineering, Multivariate Analysis, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Planetary Geomorphology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Risk Analysis
Cascading slope failures in alpine environments are intensifying as glaciers retreat and slope stability adjusts to a warming climate. Yet, the mechanisms governing such large, rapidly evolving events remain poorly understood. The 28 May 2025 rock–ice avalanche from Birch Glacier, Switzerland ($\approx9.3\times10^{6}~\mathrm{m^3}$), which devastated part of the village of Blatten, provides a [...]
An analysis of landslides in Great Britain using soil texture, rainfall, and topography reveals contrasting failure conditions between organic and mineral soils
Published: 2026-03-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Soil Science
Rainfall-induced landslides cause millions of pounds in damage to infrastructure in Great Britain (GB) annually and occasionally result in human fatalities. However, there are limited guidelines or policies aimed at reducing landslide risk in GB and few studies have broadly characterized landslide incidence across the region. Furthermore, peat landslides, which are a phenomenon that occur almost [...]
A comprehensive calibration framework for the Northwest River Forecast Center
Published: 2025-04-19
Subjects: Civil Engineering, Hydrology, Other Civil and Environmental Engineering
We present a comprehensive framework developed by the Northwest River Forecast Center for calibrating hydrologically diverse basins. The framework includes models for snow, soil moisture, routing, channel loss, and consumptive use. Data inputs include a wide range of open-access datasets for meteorology, land use, topography, and land cover. The framework uses conceptual hydrologic models to [...]
Calibrated spatial uncertainty for Earth observation foundation models via Matérn-motivated latent stochastic regularization
Published: 2026-05-16
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models
Earth observation foundation models produce dense spatial embeddings that support transfer learning across sensors and regions, yet these representations carry no explicit spatial statistical model for covariance, smoothness, or uncertainty. Existing deep learning uncertainty methods produce per-pixel variance estimates that ignore spatial dependence, and their calibration is rarely assessed [...]
Benefits of the Sentinel-2 mission triplet constellation in 2025
Published: 2026-03-21
Subjects: Life Sciences
With the first-year extension of Copernicus Sentinel-2A satellite operations nearing its end, an evaluation of its added-value is urgently needed. Here, we show that despite reduced spatio temporal coverage, the additional Sentinel-2A acquisitions in 2025 enhanced the number of usable Sentinel-2 observations over Europe for the March-December period by almost 34%, and at the global scale by more [...]