Preprints
There are 7999 Preprints listed.
Household water storage compromises drinking water safety in a “safely managed” system
Published: 2026-02-24
Subjects: Public Health
While nearly three-quarters of the globe use safely managed drinking water services, water quality can deteriorate between the point of service provision and point of consumption due to intermittent supply and the need to store water at the household level. To test if water storage contributes to waterborne pathogen hazards, we estimated prevalence and concentration of enteric pathogens in piped [...]
Energy-Driven Radius Evolution of Chthonian Planets: A Viscoelastic Maxwell Framework with Applications to Earth
Published: 2026-02-03
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Chthonian planets—dense rocky or metallic remnants of gas giants stripped of their gaseous envelopes—experience extreme internal pressures and energy densities, making their structural evolution fundamentally different from classical terrestrial planets. We aim to develop a physically grounded framework to describe energy-driven radius evolution in such bodies and to understand how internal [...]
Global patterns of commodity-driven deforestation and associated carbon emissions
Published: 2024-04-18
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Natural Resource Economics, Statistical Models, Sustainability
Rapid agriculture-driven deforestation poses considerable challenges to achieving climate and biodiversity targets. However, the limited scope and comprehensiveness of the datasets available for linking deforestation to food production restrict their effectiveness in supporting forest conservation and climate change mitigation efforts. By integrating the best available spatial and statistical [...]
Fast and Slow Groundwater Reservoir Dynamics Revealed by Seismic Velocity Changes and Bayesian ICA in a Taiwan Mountain Ridge
Published: 2026-03-12
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Mountain block recharge (MBR) is an important but difficult-to-observe component of mountain water budgets, especially in steep terrain where groundwater measurements are sparse. In such settings, relative seismic velocity changes (dv/v) derived from ambient-noise interferometry provide a potential proxy for hydrological storage variations, but interpretation is complicated because each frequency [...]
Rethinking grounding-zone basal drag for improved projections of Antarctic ice loss
Published: 2026-02-24
Subjects: Geology, Geomorphology, Glaciology
Ice-stream grounding zones are critical parts of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and we must be able to model how they retreat with confidence. This is because for most of Antarctica, the grounding-zone location determines the flux of ice to the ocean. As such, future grounding-zone locations (as the ice-sheet edge retreats inland) dictate the pattern and rate of ice loss and the associated sea-level [...]
Comparison of probabilistic approaches to acoustic full-waveform inversion in compressed model and data spaces
Published: 2026-03-18
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Full-waveform inversion estimates subsurface properties by minimizing the misfit between observed and modelled data. However, conventional deterministic approaches are highly sensitive to noise, dependent on the starting model and prone to converging to local minima of the cost function. Bayesian approaches offer a viable alternative, enhancing solution space exploration and providing uncertainty [...]
EQ-INSAR: A Python Package for Generating Synthetic Earthquake InSAR Deformation Data
Published: 2026-02-24
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Remote Sensing
EQ-INSAR is an open-source Python package for generating synthetic Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) surface deformation data from earthquake sources. The package implements the Davis (1986) point source model to compute three component ground displacement from double-couple earthquake mechanisms. Then it projects the displacement onto satellite line-of-sight (LOS) geometries to [...]
Evaluating global spectral unmixing techniques using imaging spectroscopy data for retrieval of green, non-photosynthetic vegetation, and soil fractional cover
Published: 2026-03-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Remote Sensing, Soil Science
Global estimates of fractional cover of green vegetation (GV), non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV), and soil provide valuable information about the Earth system. As the new generation of Earth visible-to-shortwave infrared (VSWIR) imaging spectrometers take orbit, global fractional cover data will be obtainable with new and improved spectral unmixing algorithms. Using an ASD Field Spectrometer [...]
Current deformation in Hispaniola from InSAR--derived surface velocities
Published: 2026-05-11
Subjects: Earth Sciences
The oblique convergence between the Caribbean and North American plates is accommodated, in Hispaniola, by left-lateral strike-slip on two major left--lateral fault systems and by intra-arc shortening. We apply a Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSInSAR) approach to Sentinel-1 data using six tracks acquired between 2016 and 2023 to generate time series of interseismic velocities over the [...]
Scalable and locally mass-conservative simulation of basin-scale variably saturated groundwater flow
Published: 2026-10-26
Subjects: Hydrology
Groundwater is the largest store of liquid fresh water, yet because it is hidden beneath the surface, it is primarily understood through models of porous-media flow. Richards' equation, a physically faithful description of variably saturated groundwater flow, remains costly for basin-scale groundwater modelling. Consequently, operational models use reduced physics, either by assuming linearity or [...]
Territorially-Specialized Machine Learning Models for Wildfire Risk Prediction Across Argentina Using Satellite Data and H3 Hexagonal Grids
Published: 2026-03-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences
Wildfire risk prediction in large, ecologically diverse countries requires models that account for regional variation in fire drivers. We present GeoAlertAR-ML, a wildfire risk prediction system for Argentina that uses an ensemble of regionally specialized Random Forest classifiers operating over a national hexagonal grid of 13,231 H3 cells. Unlike global fire danger indices or single-model [...]
Seismic Efficiency during Volcanic Unrest: Insights from the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull Eruption
Published: 2026-02-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Volcanology
Identifying patterns in precursory signals may aid forecasting over month to year timescales. We examine the relationship between seismicity and ground deformation during unrest prior to the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, finding the ratio between seismic moment and horizontal GPS ground displacement is constant within two distinct phases, with a step increase from one to the other. This is [...]
Leveraging synthetic data for deep learning denoising and prediction of measured earthquake waveforms
Published: 2026-03-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Single-station recordings of teleseismic earthquakes are inherently complex due to the superposition of numerous seismic phases and their contamination with noise, which can be particularly problematic in urban environments. A detailed knowledge of the wavefield generated by teleseismic earthquakes is critical for high-precision research facilities like those involved in photon science or gravity [...]
Multi-decadal Barrier Island Fate Varies as a Function of Management Strategy
Published: 2026-03-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Barrier islands are highly dynamic components of sandy coastlines, making up 10% of coastlines globally. Barriers provide recreational opportunities, protect mainland communities from storms, support tourism, and provide ecologically important habitat. Using a spatially explicit barrier island model, CASCADE, calibrated to represent the historical dynamics of Ocracoke, a barrier island in the [...]
Explaining the Equatorial Pacific Thermocline Response to Climate Change with a Model Hierarchy
Published: 2025-10-17
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Most studies of the equatorial Pacific response to anthropogenic forcing have focused on patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) change. However, similar SST patterns can be consistent with a range of different subsurface responses, each with differing physical and biogeochemical implications. While historical observation and climate model mismatches have been suggested in the literature, we [...]