Preprints
There are 6976 Preprints listed.
Episodic slowdown of global warming by a multi-year La Niña
Published: 2026-05-12
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Global mean surface temperature (GMST), which has continued to rise due to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, is closely related to the sea surface temperature variability in the tropical Pacific. In particular, GMST is known to increase during a strong and short-lived El Niño. By contrast, the global cooling effect of a weak and long-lived La Niña remains underexplored, particularly that [...]
Estimating the ice thickness and water depth of a frozen lake using flexural waves recorded by distributed acoustic sensing
Published: 2026-04-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Information about frozen lakes, including ice rigidity, ice thickness, and water depth, is essential for both environmental studies and practical applications. Although these properties can be measured in the field, such measurements are labor-intensive and spatially limited, motivating the development of alternative observation methods. Seismic waves offer an alternative approach to studying [...]
The African Transport Systems Database: an open geospatial database of multi-modal connected networks
Published: 2025-09-30
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Transportation Engineering
We present the first comprehensive geolocated multi-modal transport database for the whole continent of Africa, the African Transport Systems Database (AfTS-Db), including road, rail, aviation, maritime and inland waterway networks. To do so, we created and standardized asset and network data across all transport modes, including inter-modal connections, attributes of road and rail corridors and [...]
Unprecedented Social-Ecological Impacts of the 2023 Extreme Drought in the Central Amazon
Published: 2025-03-21
Subjects: Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
While the 2023 record-breaking drought led to widespread social-ecological impacts across Amazonia, local impacts of such extreme events are rarely described in detail. Here we leverage a large interdisciplinary data collection related to social and ecological impacts in the Central Amazon. Compound hazards (reduced river water levels, lack of rainfall, high water/air temperatures, river erosion [...]
Long-term future Greenland ice loss determined by peak global warming
Published: 2026-04-29
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Climate, Glaciology
The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is known to be very sensitive to climate change, and persistent global warming only slightly higher than today could be enough to completely melt it. However, the implications of a temporary crossing of this temperature threshold for future GrIS mass loss remain unknown. Here we present simulations of the next 10,000 years under different future anthropogenic [...]
Direct quantification of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence using compact solar-blind optical radiometers
Published: 2026-04-30
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Optics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics
Remote sensing of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) provides a non-invasive, quantitative measure of plant photosynthetic activity, linking leaf-level physiology to canopy and ecosystem behavior and the global carbon cycle. Current SIF measurements rely on hyperspectral retrievals of the weak fluorescence signal from small changes in Fraunhofer lines or atmospheric absorption features [...]
Reduced geomagnetic shielding increased UV-B radiation at Earth’s surface during the Laschamps Event
Published: 2026-04-30
Subjects: Astrophysics and Astronomy, Atmospheric Sciences, Biochemistry, Biogeochemistry, Biology, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Life Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Life Sciences, Paleobiology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Geochemistry, Planetary Geology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Sciences, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Statistics and Probability
Exposure to excess UV-B radiation can harm organisms through DNA damage and oxidative stress, and has likely been a key ecological and evolutionary driver throughout Earth’s history. Here, we show UV-B at Earth’s surface was significantly increased during the Laschamps Event, the last major geomagnetic excursion ca. 41ka BP. During the Laschamps, we find significant and prolonged (lasting [...]
Operational Flood Forecasting System in Denmark – Integrating Groundwater and Surface-water
Published: 2025-06-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology
Most operational flood forecasting systems provide predictions of pluvial and fluvial floods, often neglecting groundwater flooding. Groundwater-induced floods can occur when prolonged rainfall, high river stages or elevated sea levels raise the groundwater table above the surface of the land, often occurring in low-lying areas or areas with specific soil and land-surface conditions. This study [...]
A Google Earth Engine Tool for Mapping Key Metrics of Glacier Health from Space
Published: 2026-04-14
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Satellite-based observations enable monitoring of glacier health metrics, essential for assessing glacier response to climate change and the environmental services they provide. Here, we present a Google Earth Engine tool for automated mapping of key climate- and mass balance- modulated parameters, including total visible ice area, snow-covered area (SCA), accumulation-area ratio, and snowline [...]
ENSO-conditioned evolution of global mean surface temperature
Published: 2026-05-12
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Here we examined how the June--May trajectory of global mean surface temperature (GMST) can be anticipated from recent GMST evolution and upcoming boreal winter Ni\~no-3.4 values. Principal component analysis and dimension reduction of the data led to a simple, interpretable model in which the June--May monthly GMST trajectory is conditioned on two quantities: the average GMST of the prior 12 [...]
Geostatistical Assessment of Shallow Groundwater Risk in Urban Coastal Virginia: A Case Study from Virginia Beach
Published: 2026-04-14
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Hydrology, Life Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, Water Resource Management
Urban groundwater assessments in coastal cities often rely on public monitoring datasets that are spatially uneven and temporally discontinuous. This study evaluates shallow groundwater risk in Virginia Beach, Virginia, using 30 years of records (1991–2020) from 121 monitoring wells for groundwater levels and 55 wells with groundwater‑quality data for chloride (Cl), iron (Fe), and manganese (Mn). [...]
Assessing Causality in PM2.5 and NO2 Changes One Year After New York City’s Congestion Pricing Policy
Published: 2026-04-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Sciences
On January 5, 2025, New York City implemented the Central Business District Tolling Program (CBDTP), a congestion pricing policy targeting lower Manhattan. We evaluate its air quality effects after one year using ground-based and satellite observations. Using New York City Community Air Survey (NYCCAS) real-time PM2.5 monitors, we compare PM2.5 concentrations during the first year of CBDTP [...]
Assessment of riverbed evolution in the Vam Nao River under the influence of sand mining using a numerical model
Published: 2026-04-28
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Riverbed sand mining is a major anthropogenic driver of sediment imbalance and riverbank erosion in the Mekong Delta. This study investigates its morphological impacts using the hydrodynamic–morphological model HYDIST, coupled with a sand mining source function (Ssm), to directly simulate unsustainable sand mining. The model is applied to the Vam Nao River, a confluence connecting the Tien and [...]
Response of atmospheric convection to surface drying: new insights from isentropic analysis
Published: 2025-10-24
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
There is strong evidence that the atmospheric moisture content of several solar system planets, including Earth, has varied over their lifetimes. A growing body of work also documents a range of atmospheric water vapor content on exoplanets. An improved understanding of the coupling between atmospheric moisture availability and convection could yield greater intuition about the past and current [...]
Acceleration and Spatial Reorganization of Bank Erosion under Prolonged Sediment Starvation: Multi-decadal Evidence from the Vam Nao Channel
Published: 2026-04-29
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The reduction in sediment supply in major deltas worldwide is altering the morphological dynamics of river delta systems. However, the way in which this process leads to the spatial reorganization of erosion has not yet been fully quantified. This study analyzes shoreline variations in the Vam Nao channel, Mekong Delta, over the period 1988–2025 in order to clarify the morphological changes of [...]