Preprints
There are 6976 Preprints listed.
Machine learning predictions of summertime warming jumps on decadal timescales
Published: 2025-09-28
Subjects: Climate
Extreme events are responsible for some of the most severe impacts of climate change, but regional extreme event prediction remains a challenge as the events contain a large amount of stochasticity. Here we demonstrate an approach for predicting future summertime temperature extremes on decadal timescales by first identifying an abrupt jump in average summertime temperature as a covariate of [...]
Integrating Climate Services into Health Systems for Nutrition Security: A Scoping Review
Published: 2025-04-20
Subjects: Public Health
Climate information services (CIS) are science-based tools used to inform decision-making in climate-sensitive sectors, such as agriculture, water resources, energy, disaster risk reduction and health. These CIS rely on high-quality climate and weather data in order to predict and prepare for specific extreme weather or climate events such as droughts and floods. Within the health sector, most [...]
Validating and Comparing Energy Estimation Methods at Water Resource Recovery Facilities
Published: 2025-08-23
Subjects: Engineering
Water resource recovery facilities play a crucial role in the water-energy nexus, consuming a substantial amount of energy in the United States. Growing treatment volumes and more stringent water quality standards are expected to increase the amount of energy needed to treat wastewater, but accurately estimating energy consumption and potential remains challenging due to variability in scale, [...]
Modulation of tropical cyclogenesis on subseasonal-to-interannual timescales in the deep-learning climate emulator ACE2
Published: 2025-05-02
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Deep-learning global climate emulators are providing a new lens to investigate tropical cyclogenesis (TC genesis). However, without explicitly enforcing known physics, it is necessary to assess whether TC genesis in these models is physical. To address this question, we use the Ai2 Climate Emulator version 2 (ACE2) trained on ERA5 reanalysis to investigate TC genesis and its relationship with the [...]
Towards more reliable interdisciplinary modeling of global human-environment dynamics driving biodiversity change
Published: 2023-02-19
Subjects: Agriculture, Biodiversity, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Studies, Forest Sciences, Geography, Life Sciences, Nature and Society Relations
Environmental problems are typically vast, urgent, and complex. Confronted with such problems, we are often tempted to act fast by pulling together little bits and pieces from different fields and simply adding these to pre-existing models and frameworks. Seldom, though, do we pause long enough to look whether and for how long those larger structures we build can support reliable answers to our [...]
Two decades of land cover changes in the Colombian Andes
Published: 2025-08-27
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Other Earth Sciences
The Colombian Andes faces severe anthropogenic pressures from deforestation, agricultural expansion, mining, and urban development. Given its status as one of the world’s biodiversity hotspot, land cover monitoring for effective conservation strategies and sustainable development planning is essential. While early research relied on coarse or medium-resolution satellite imagery for limited [...]
Detecting and Explaining Persistent Road Underdevelopment in Greater Accra Region Using Multi-Temporal Geospatial Data and Machine Learning
Published: 2026-04-30
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Uneven transport infrastructure development remains a persistent challenge in rapidly urbanising cities, where disparities in road conditions shape mobility, accessibility, and socio-economic op-portunities. In Greater Accra, Ghana, rapid urban expansion has produced a road network character-ised by strong spatial inequalities, with many neighbourhood roads remaining unpaved despite sur-rounding [...]
Polygonal peatlands and treed plateau bog in Northwest Hudson Bay Lowlands, Canada: Holocene development and permafrost dynamics
Published: 2026-05-17
Subjects: Life Sciences
Since the retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, peatland development in the Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) has been mainly influenced by postglacial isostatic rebound and climate. We studied the timing of permafrost aggradation and the successional trajectories of low Arctic and subarctic polygonal peatlands and a boreal plateau bog in Wapusk National Park (WNP), in northwestern HBL. We also explored [...]
MPsizeBase: a database for particle size distributed and size aligned environmental microplastic data
Published: 2025-10-24
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Understanding the sources, dispersion, and health impacts of microplastic (MP) pollution requires quantitative observations in terms of MP number and/or mass concentrations. Measurements of environmental MP fragments or fibers typically target variable size spans within the formal 1 to 5000 µm range, due to different sampling and detection techniques, and are therefore not directly comparable. In [...]
How Do Discrete Global Grid Systems Actually Perform? A Systematic Benchmark Across Geometry, Computation and Relational Joins
Published: 2026-04-30
Subjects: Computer and Systems Architecture, Databases and Information Systems, Earth Sciences, Geographic Information Sciences, Software Engineering, Spatial Science
As geospatial datasets exceed the billion-row threshold, Discrete Global Grid Systems (DGGS) promise to replace expensive vector spatial joins with fast relational hash-joins on discrete cell identifiers. However, the real-world performance of different grid implementations and the upfront cost of converting vector geometries into grid indexes remains largely unquantified. This paper introduces [...]
A Blueprint for Integrated Climate Intelligence
Published: 2026-05-13
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Planetary Sciences, Sustainability
Climate information is advancing faster than the decision systems designed to use it. Emergency response operates on timescales of hours, whereas societal adaptation unfolds over decades. Yet climate science, impact assessment and policy remain poorly integrated, limiting coherent action across timescales. We argue that artificial intelligence should be developed not only as a domain-specific [...]
Extreme recharge triggers seismicity in a confined karst aquifer in southern Spain
Published: 2026-05-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Hydrology, Tectonics and Structure
Hydrological forcing during extreme recharge events can perturb crustal stress and trigger seismicity in a critically stressed crust, yet the coupling between aquifer dynamics and the spatio-temporal distribution of earthquake swarms remains poorly constrained. Here we document such a response during an exceptional rainfall episode in early 2026 that affected a confined karst aquifer in southern [...]
The Coupling Cloud: A community database of megathrust kinematic coupling models
Published: 2026-01-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Kinematic coupling models inverted from geodetic data are widely used to evaluate how slip deficit is distributed along subduction megathrusts during the interseismic period, and are central to earthquake and tsunami hazard assessment. Yet, existing coupling models differ widely in methodology and inputs, lack common community standards, and are scattered across publications and repositories. [...]
Assessing the impact of Colombian public land acquisitions on forest cover in the Andes
Published: 2026-05-01
Subjects: Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Human Geography, Nature and Society Relations, Remote Sensing
Public land acquisitions (PLAs) are a promising conservation instrument, combining the permanence of protected areas with the voluntary, compensatory structure of payments for ecosystem services, yet causal evidence on their effectiveness remains limited. Colombia’s Article 111 mandate, which requires departments to allocate 1% of revenue to land acquisition for watershed protection, has produced [...]
Orthomagmatic Ni-Cu-Au-PGE mineralisation in Ireland and Northern Ireland: A review of historic exploration and future prospectivity
Published: 2026-05-13
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology
Platinum group elements (PGEs) are essential constituents in established and emerging green technologies, yet European supply is dominated by a small number of very large deposits, necessitating the identification of alternative domestic sources. Most economic mineralisation is associated with orthomagmatic Ni-Cu-Au-PGE systems, where chalcophile elements are concentrated within sulphide minerals [...]