Preprints
There are 7999 Preprints listed.
Machine learning predictions of summertime warming jumps on decadal timescales
Published: 2025-09-29
Subjects: Climate
Extreme events are responsible for some of the most severe impacts of climate change, but regional extreme event prediction remains a challenge as the events contain a large amount of stochasticity. Here we demonstrate an approach for predicting future summertime temperature extremes on decadal timescales by first identifying an abrupt jump in average summertime temperature as a covariate of [...]
Integrating Climate Services into Health Systems for Nutrition Security: A Scoping Review
Published: 2025-04-20
Subjects: Public Health
Climate information services (CIS) are science-based tools used to inform decision-making in climate-sensitive sectors, such as agriculture, water resources, energy, disaster risk reduction and health. These CIS rely on high-quality climate and weather data in order to predict and prepare for specific extreme weather or climate events such as droughts and floods. Within the health sector, most [...]
Validating and Comparing Energy Estimation Methods at Water Resource Recovery Facilities
Published: 2025-08-23
Subjects: Engineering
Water resource recovery facilities play a crucial role in the water-energy nexus, consuming a substantial amount of energy in the United States. Growing treatment volumes and more stringent water quality standards are expected to increase the amount of energy needed to treat wastewater, but accurately estimating energy consumption and potential remains challenging due to variability in scale, [...]
Modulation of tropical cyclogenesis on subseasonal-to-interannual timescales in the deep-learning climate emulator ACE2
Published: 2025-05-02
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Deep-learning global climate emulators are providing a new lens to investigate tropical cyclogenesis (TC genesis). However, without explicitly enforcing known physics, it is necessary to assess whether TC genesis in these models is physical. To address this question, we use the Ai2 Climate Emulator version 2 (ACE2) trained on ERA5 reanalysis to investigate TC genesis and its relationship with the [...]
Unequal weather exposure across teams and groups at the 2026 FIFA World Cup: an event-based analysis using hourly reanalysis
Published: 2026-05-30
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Studies, Human Geography
The connection between climate change and sports is evident, as sports contribute to environmental challenges, while climate change impacts the conditions for playing, organizing, and enjoying sports. In professional football, heat, humidity, rain, wind, and insufficient recovery time at night can influence player health, physical stress, and game performance. Evaluations of the 2026 FIFA World [...]
Regional anthropogenic aerosol reductions amplify probability of record-breaking heat extremes
Published: 2026-06-18
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Record-breaking heat extremes are becoming more likely due to anthropogenic climate change, with their probability depending on the regional warming rate. Anthropogenic aerosol forcing modulates these warming rates, and aerosols are declining globally. However, the influence of aerosols on the probability of record-breaking heat extremes remains unclear. Here, we assess how aerosol trends alter [...]
ENSO Modulation of the Amazonian Low-Level Jet: More Moisture, Less Rain, and the Role of Land Surface Reception
Published: 2026-05-30
Subjects: Climate, Hydrology, Meteorology
The Amazonian Low-Level Jet (ALLJ) carries moisture from the tropical Atlantic coast into the basin interior, sustaining wet-season convection. Here we analyze 45 years of ERA5 reanalysis (1979–2023), 44 years of CHIRPS precipitation (1981–2024), GRACE terrestrial water storage (2002–2025), and SMAP root-zone soil moisture (2015–2024) to determine how ENSO modulates this transport pathway and its [...]
Stadiums as climate-exposed socio-technical infrastructures: a scoping review of fragmented risks and emerging challenges
Published: 2026-01-27
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Environmental Public Health, Environmental Studies
Stadiums are among the most climate-sensitive infrastructures in global sport, yet the evidence available to characterise their climate-related risks remains fragmented. Although billions of spectators attend sporting events each year and climate change is recognised as a multiplier of existing hazards, research on stadium environments continues to treat risks separately. Heat is examined through [...]
Climate Change Perceptions and Policy Priorities in Pakistan: A Community Survey Analysis and Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Perspective
Published: 2026-05-20
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Climate change constitutes a compound existential risk for Pakistan — a nation responsible for less than one percent of global greenhouse-gas emissions yet consistently ranked among the ten most climate-vulnerable states on earth (Germanwatch, 2021). Escalating heatwaves, intensifying monsoon floods, accelerating glacial retreat, chronic smog, and advancing desertification are not future [...]
Modelling the Evolution of Elliptical Röthlisberger Channels
Published: 2026-06-12
Subjects: Fluid Dynamics, Glaciology, Other Mathematics
Subglacial water flow is critical to basal sliding and ice dynamics. Modelling the coupled evolution of subglacial drainage and ice flow remains challenging, however. This study investigates the evolution of the basal ice-water interface by analysing heat and fluid flow in idealised englacial channels. We extend the classical Röthlisberger model for circular channels to elliptical channel [...]
Towards more reliable interdisciplinary modeling of global human-environment dynamics driving biodiversity change
Published: 2023-02-20
Subjects: Agriculture, Biodiversity, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Studies, Forest Sciences, Geography, Life Sciences, Nature and Society Relations
Environmental problems are typically vast, urgent, and complex. Confronted with such problems, we are often tempted to act fast by pulling together little bits and pieces from different fields and simply adding these to pre-existing models and frameworks. Seldom, though, do we pause long enough to look whether and for how long those larger structures we build can support reliable answers to our [...]
Two decades of land cover changes in the Colombian Andes
Published: 2025-08-27
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Other Earth Sciences
The Colombian Andes faces severe anthropogenic pressures from deforestation, agricultural expansion, mining, and urban development. Given its status as one of the world’s biodiversity hotspot, land cover monitoring for effective conservation strategies and sustainable development planning is essential. While early research relied on coarse or medium-resolution satellite imagery for limited [...]
A hidden component of magnetic storms makes Earth's mantle transition zone look drier than it is
Published: 2026-07-04
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Electromagnetic sounding provides a primary geophysical constraint on water in Earth's mantle transition zone, yet conductivity models disagree by up to an order of magnitude. We identify a source-side systematic invisible to internal consistency checks: omitting the degree-3 zonal (P₃⁰) storm-field component biases transition-zone conductivity by 0.1–0.35 decades, a tenth to a quarter of that [...]
Detecting and Explaining Persistent Road Underdevelopment in Greater Accra Region Using Multi-Temporal Geospatial Data and Machine Learning
Published: 2026-05-01
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Uneven transport infrastructure development remains a persistent challenge in rapidly urbanising cities, where disparities in road conditions shape mobility, accessibility, and socio-economic op-portunities. In Greater Accra, Ghana, rapid urban expansion has produced a road network character-ised by strong spatial inequalities, with many neighbourhood roads remaining unpaved despite sur-rounding [...]
Future heat-stress regimes under CMIP6: a multi-index assessment of persistence and human-relevant thermal constraints
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Studies, Geography, Nature and Society Relations
Human exposure to heat stress is increasing under climate change as rising temperatures interact with atmospheric moisture to constrain thermoregulation and outdoor activity. While numerous heat-stress indices are used in climate impact studies, their joint interpretation in terms of climatic regimes, persistence, and physiological relevance remains fragmented. Here, we provide a global, [...]