Preprints
There are 6976 Preprints listed.
Comparison of estimation methods for a nonstationary index-flood model in flood frequency analysis using peaks over threshold
Published: 2019-04-05
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Other Civil and Environmental Engineering
Accurate estimation of flood frequency is crucial for designing safe infrastructures. To reduce model uncertainty, threshold modeling techniques are often useful in bringing more valuable flood information into the analysis than traditional models based on annual maximum discharges. Due to climatic or anthropogenic causes, changes in flood magnitudes in many parts of the world have been observed [...]
Matlab/R workflows to assess critical choices in Global Sensitivity Analysis using the SAFE toolbox
Published: 2019-04-05
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability
Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) is a set of statistical techniques to investigate the effects of the uncertainty in the input factors of a mathematical model on the model’s outputs. The value of GSA for the construction, evaluation, and improvement of earth system models is reviewed in a companion paper by Wagener and Pianosi [n.d.]. The present paper focuses on the implementation of GSA and [...]
What has Global Sensitivity Analysis ever done for us? A systematic review to support scientific advancement and to inform policy-making in earth system modelling
Published: 2019-04-08
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Life Sciences, Mathematics, Medicine and Health Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability
Computer models are essential tools in the earth system sciences. They underpin our search for understanding of earth system functioning and support decision- and policy-making across spatial and temporal scales. To understand the implications of uncertainty and environmental variability on the identification of such earth system models and their predictions, we can rely on increasingly powerful [...]
Comment on “Earthquake-induced prompt gravity signals identified in dense array data in Japan” by Kimura et al.
Published: 2019-04-05
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
A recent work by Kimura et al. (2019) (hereafter referred to as K19) claims to provide the first observational constraints on the prompt elastogravity signals (PEGS) induced by an earthquake. To make their claim, the authors argue that the observations shown in Vallée et al. (2017) (hereafter referred to as V17) are spurious and their modeling inaccurate. Here we show that K19’s claim is invalid [...]
The vulnerability of tidal flats and multi-channel estuaries to dredging and disposal
Published: 2019-04-05
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Geomorphology, Other Civil and Environmental Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Shipping fairways in estuaries are continuously dredged to maintain access for large vessels to major ports. However, several estuaries worldwide show adverse side effects to dredging activities, including a shift from multi-channel systems to single-channel systems and the loss of ecologically valuable intertidal flats. We used a time series of bathymetry of the Western Scheldt estuary (the [...]
Ridge Subduction and Afterslip Control Aftershock Distribution of the 2016 Mw 7.8 Ecuador Earthquake
Published: 2019-04-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We characterise the aftershock sequence following the 2016 Mw=7.8 Pedernales earthquake. More than 10,000 events were detected and located, with magnitudes up to 6.9. Most of the aftershock seismicity results from interplate thrust faulting, but we also observe a few normal and strike-slip mechanisms. Seismicity extends for more than 300 km along strike, and is constrained between the trench and [...]
Mapping geospatial processes affecting the environmental fate of agricultural pesticides in Africa
Published: 2019-04-02
Subjects: Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The application of agricultural pesticides in Africa has high negative effects on human health and the environment. To analyse the effect, spatial data characterizing the environmental fate of agricultural pesticides are needed. However, poor availability and quality of data that quantify pesticide application and pesticide fate limit direct analysis of the effect. This study selected key [...]
Boundary element methods for earthquake modeling with realistic 3D geometries
Published: 2019-04-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Boundary element methods have become a foundational tool in earthquake science for the modeling of earthquake cycle kinematics. Despite their wide use and convenience typical rectangular and triangular constant slip dislocation methods produce stress singularities at the edges of every element rendering these models physically unrealistic. As we demonstrate, in an earthquake cycle simulation [...]
A simplified seasonal forecasting strategy, applied to wind and solar power in Europe
Published: 2019-04-01
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics, Probability, Statistics and Probability, Sustainability
We demonstrate levels of skill for forecasts of seasonal-mean wind speed and solar irradiance in Europe, using seasonal forecast systems available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). While skill is patchy, there is potential for the development of climate services for the energy sector. Following previous studies, we show that, where there is skill, a simple linear regression-based [...]
The Cyclic Preservation of Clastic and Evaporitic Sabkha Sediments: Insights from the Cedar Mesa Sandstone Formation of the Cutler Group, Utah, USA
Published: 2019-04-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology
The strata of arid continental basins commonly comprise evaporitic sediments deposited in sabkha settings combined with clastic sediments derived from aeolian, fluvial and/or lacustrine settings. The sedimentary character of these mixed successions and the degree to which evaporitic strata influence their composition, both contribute towards the economic potential of the evaporitic and the [...]
A global survey on the perceptions and impacts of gender inequality in the Earth and space sciences
Published: 2019-04-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Studies, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
The leaky pipeline phenomenon refers to the disproportionate decline of female scientists at higher academic career levels and is a major problem in the natural sciences. Identifying the underlying causes is challenging, and thus, solving the problem remains difficult. To better understand the reasons for the leaky pipeline, we assess the perceptions and impacts of gender bias and imbalance—two [...]
Fast non-linear gravity inversion in spherical coordinates with application to the South American Moho
Published: 2019-04-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Estimating the relief of the Moho from gravity data is a computationally intensive non-linear inverse problem. What is more, the modeling must take the Earths curvature into account when the study area is of regional scale or greater. We present a regularized non-linear gravity inversion method that has a low computational footprint and employs a spherical Earth approximation. To achieve this, we [...]
A macroscale hydrogeological numerical model of the Suio hydrothermal system (central Italy)
Published: 2019-04-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Natural Resources and Conservation, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
The complex behaviour of the Suio hydrothermal system (central Italy) and its potential exploitation as a renewable energy source are still unclear. To quantitatively evaluate the geothermal resource, the Suio hydrothermal system has been investigated with a hydrogeological numerical model that couples fluid flow, thermal convection, and transport of diluted species inside a hybrid [...]
Observation and explanation of spurious seismic signals emerging in teleseismic noise correlations
Published: 2019-04-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Deep body waves have been reconstructed from seismic noise correlations in recent studies. The authors note their great potential for deep-Earth imaging. In addition to the expected physical seismic phases, some spurious arrivals having no correspondence in earthquake seismograms are observed from the noise correlations. The origins of the noise-derived body waves have not been well understood. [...]
Minimal surfaces in porous media: pore-scale imaging of multiphase flow in an altered-wettability Bentheimer sandstone
Published: 2019-03-28
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics
We observed features of pore scale fluid distributions during oil-brine displacement in a mixed-wet sandstone rock sample. High-resolution X-ray imaging was used in combination with differential pressure measurements to measure relative permeability and capillary pressure simultaneously during a steady-state waterflood experiment on a sample of Bentheimer sandstone 51.6 mm long and 6.1 mm in [...]