Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Extreme changes in water level regenerate reed stands and a stable water regime leads to die-off: lessons from the analysis of 40-year satellite times series observations in a shallow lake ecosystem.
Published: 2026-05-30
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Hydrology, Natural Resources and Conservation, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology, Water Resource Management
Reed wetlands are key to the productivity of shallow lakes, and their condition is tightly governed by water level variability. Using long-term satellite observations, we provide the first analysis linking hydrology and reed vitality at Lake Neusiedl, a major climate sensitive wetland system in the Pannonian Basin. We assembled a 40-year record (1985–2025) of Landsat derived Enhanced Vegetation [...]
Future Strengthening of North Atlantic Anthropogenic Carbon Transport Despite AMOC Weakening
Published: 2026-05-30
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The North Atlantic is a major hotspot for the uptake, accumulation, and storage of anthropogenic carbon (Canth), processes that are closely linked to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, the role of ocean transport in driving this accumulation remains poorly constrained, leading to uncertainty in future carbon uptake and circulation changes under climate forcing. CMIP6 [...]
A Petrographic P-Axis as an Independent State Coordinate of Coal Organic Matter: Decoupling of Organic Sulfur and Inorganic Fe–S Subsystems
Published: 2026-05-29
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study proposes an architectural framework for coal organic matter in which geochemical behavior emerges from the interaction of partially independent subsystems rather than from a single maturity or redox gradient. Using a globally compiled coal dataset, we introduce the P-axis—a petrographic coordinate derived exclusively from the balance between gelified and tissue-preserved vitrinite [...]
A benchmark deep learning dataset for the classification of supraglacial lake drainage mechanism across the central-west Greenland Ice Sheet
Published: 2026-05-29
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Supraglacial lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet drain through physically distinct pathways: hydrofracture, moulins, lateral stream routing, and crevasse-fields. Each drainage mechanism carries unique implications for ice sheet dynamics. Existing automated classifications reduce each lake's drainage behavior to a time-series of scalar values representing the observed water surface-area and classify [...]
Resolving the SAI Trilemma with a Novel Core–Shell Mineral Aerosol: DoloSil-20, a Silica-Passivated Dolomite Architecture for Simultaneous Optical Efficiency, Thermal Neutrality, and Ozone Safety
Published: 2026-05-29
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Materials Science and Engineering, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Conventional stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) strategies based on liquid sulfate aerosols (H2SO4.H2O) introduce well-documented risks of catalytic ozone destruction and stratospheric near-infrared heating. From a materials-science perspective, the core challenge is one of multi-objective material selection: identifying a particle composition that simultaneously optimizes optical performance, [...]
Development and Evaluation of the High-Resolution MUSICA UK Domain: A Case Study of Global and Regional Biomass Burning Impacts
Published: 2026-05-28
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Regional air quality models provide insights into local pollution and exposure, but limitations in representing large-scale atmospheric processes and long-range transport can introduce inconsistencies across spatial scales, which can be addressed using multi-scale chemical transport models. We develop the first UK-specific regionally refined grid (UKne30×16; ∼7 km), alongside a global uniform [...]
Local heat islands and vegetation losses are microclimatic consequences of global data centers
Published: 2026-05-28
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The explosion in cloud computing and artificial intelligence has driven a rapid expansion of data centers. While the immense energy and water consumption of these facilities is well-documented, their impacts on local microclimates remain largely unexplored. Here, using satellite-derived estimates of land surface temperature and surface greenness, we isolate the microclimate footprint of almost [...]
Forecasting Lives Lost to Climate Change
Published: 2026-05-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This review synthesises empirical evidence linking global mean surface temperature to climate mortality through undernourishment, heat, extreme events, conflict, and disease, and introduces an exploratory precautionary metric: cumulative climate-related deaths per cumulative megatonne of greenhouse gas emissions (CO₂-e), intended to support policy evaluation under deep uncertainty. Using observed [...]
Hydroelectric Regulation Decouples Arctic Silica Delivery from the Diatom Bloom: A Climate-Independent Causal Attribution Across Twenty Subarctic Rivers
Published: 2026-05-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Oceanography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Large subarctic rivers deliver most of their dissolved nutrients during the spring freshet, in approximate phase with the ice-edge diatom bloom that those nutrients support. Hydroelectric regulation flattens the river hydrograph, holding back the freshet and raising winter discharge, and in doing so it redistributes nutrient delivery in time. Across twenty subarctic rivers spanning the Arctic [...]
Emerging links between Greenland ice melt, Euro-Mediterranean heat extremes, and destructive convective storms
Published: 2026-05-23
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Greenland ice loss is accelerating, but its consequences beyond sea-level rise remain poorly understood. At the same time, the Euro-Mediterranean region is facing unprecedented summer climate extremes where the underlying mechanisms have been long debated. Here we present the first evidence of a far-reaching cascading mechanism by which Greenland ice sheet melting acts as a major forcing of [...]
Dendritically-Drained Peat Plateaus: A Distinctive Thaw-Sensitive Organic-Rich Permafrost Landsystem in Northwestern Canada
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Peatlands in northwestern Canada comprise one of the most thaw-sensitive and carbon-rich permafrost landscapes of North America, and undergo rapid thaw due to surface disturbance and climate change. Dendritically-drained peat plateaus (DPPs) are a distinctive permafrost landform assemblage characterized by branching networks of channelized fens and bogs dissecting raised peat plateaus with [...]
Deep learning identification of SST teleconnections driving early-winter North Atlantic climate
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seasonal predictability over the North Atlantic-European (NAE) sector is strongly modulated by the background climate state, particularly in early winter. In this season, different ENSO teleconnections have been reported before and after the 1990s. However, these studies rely on linear analysis, and the reasons for this lack of stationarity and its implications for seasonal forecasting have not [...]
Persistent Future North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Risk in Two Contrasting CMIP6 Scenarios
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We analyze North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity using the Columbia HAZard (CHAZ) model to downscale 12 models from CMIP6 under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios --- those with the least and greatest anthropogenic forcing respectively. TC frequency increases along the Southeastern U.S. and declines along the Gulf under both SSPs. Greater TC frequency is not projected in the [...]
Climate Change Perceptions and Policy Priorities in Pakistan: A Community Survey Analysis and Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Perspective
Published: 2026-05-20
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Climate change constitutes a compound existential risk for Pakistan — a nation responsible for less than one percent of global greenhouse-gas emissions yet consistently ranked among the ten most climate-vulnerable states on earth (Germanwatch, 2021). Escalating heatwaves, intensifying monsoon floods, accelerating glacial retreat, chronic smog, and advancing desertification are not future [...]
Stratigraphy as a low-pass filter: selective preservation of spatial variability on a Holocene carbonate platform
Published: 2026-05-20
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Walther’s law, a fundamental principle in geoscience, predicts that laterally adjacent depositional environments become preserved as a vertical succession of layers (facies). As an expression of uniformitarianism, this law underpins interpretations of Earth’s history, yet it has not been quantitatively tested. We test this law and examine its limitations by quantifying multidecadal changes in [...]