Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Prescribed burns as a tool to mitigate future wildfire smoke exposure: Lessons for states and rural environmental justice communities

Makoto Michael Kelp, Matthew Carroll, Tianjia Liu, et al.

Published: 2022-12-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Smoke from wildfires presents one of the greatest threats to air quality, public health, and ecosystems in the United States, especially in the West. Here we quantify the efficacy of prescribed burning as an intervention for mitigating smoke exposure downwind of wildfires across the West during the 2018 and 2020 fire seasons. Using the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, we [...]

Functional relationships reveal differences in the water cycle representation of global water models

Sebastian Gnann, Robert Reinecke, Lina Stein, et al.

Published: 2022-12-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Global water models are widely used for policy-making and in scientific studies, but substantial inter-model differences highlight the need for additional evaluation. Here we evaluate global water models by assessing so-called functional relationships between system forcing and response variables. The more widely used comparisons between observed and simulated fluxes provide insight into model [...]

Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification of Magma Interaction Times using Statistical Emulation

Luca Insolia, Stéphane Guerrier, Chiara Paola Montagna, et al.

Published: 2022-12-02
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology

Evolution of volcanic plumbing systems towards eruptions of different styles and sizes largely depends on processes at crustal depths that are outside our observational capabilities. These processes can be modeled and the outputs of the simulations can be compared with the chemistry of the erupted products, geophysical and geodetic data to retrieve information on the architecture of the plumbing [...]

Persistent effect of El Niño on global economic growth

Christopher Callahan, Justin Mankin

Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shapes extreme weather globally, causing myriad socioeconomic impacts. But whether economies recover from ENSO events and how changes to ENSO from anthropogenic forcing will affect the global economy are unknown. Here we show that El Niño persistently reduces country-level economic growth, attributing $4.9T and $7.4T in global income losses to the 1982-83 and [...]

Constraining flow and sediment transport intermittency in the geological past

Sinead J. Lyster, Alexander C Whittaker, Alex Farnsworth, et al.

Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Quantitative investigations of ancient rivers usually provide insights into either instantaneous or mean flow conditions. There is a critical gap between these timescales of investigation which reflects the intermittency of flow and sediment transport, and closing this gap is crucial to fully explore the dynamics and evolution of ancient fluvial landscapes. Here, we combine fluvial stratigraphic [...]

SWAT model-based quantification of the impact of land use change on sediment yield in the Fincha watershed, Ethiopia

Motuma Shiferaw Regasa, Michael Nones

Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

In recent years, Ethiopia is facing problems due to soil erosion, mainly because of the conversion of natural vegetation cover into cultivated land. Soil erosion is also affecting dam reservoirs, which are threatened by an increase in sediment yield entering the lake. The present study focuses on the Ethiopian Fincha watershed and takes advantage of the potentiality of SWAT, to investigate how [...]

Standardised indices to monitor energy droughts

Sam Allen, Noelia Otero

Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sustainability

To mitigate the effects of climate change, energy systems are becoming increasingly reliant on renewable energy sources. Since these energy sources are typically dependent on the prevailing weather, renewable energy systems are susceptible to shortages during certain weather conditions. As renewable sources become larger contributors to the energy mix, the risks associated with these shortages, [...]

The Paleozoic Central Patagonian Igneous Metamorphic Belt: its geodynamic and tectonic interpretation based on Paleogeographic reconstructions

Haroldo Vizán

Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

In the southwestern margin of the North Patagonian Massif there is a NW26 SE belt of igneous and metamorphic rocks defining a limit between the North Patagonian Massif and southern Patagonia (including the Deseado Massif), named the Central Patagonian Igneous Metamorphic Belt (CPIMB). The objective of this paper is to better understand the geodynamic and tectonic processes that generated its [...]

Comment on "Estimates on the Frequency of Volcanic Eruptions on Venus" by Byrne & Krishnamoorthy (2022)

Iris van Zelst

Published: 2022-12-01
Subjects: Other Planetary Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Geology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Planetary Sciences

Byrne & Krishnamoorthy (2022) estimated the frequency of volcanic eruptions on Venus by scaling the eruption frequency obtained from a database containing Earth data. In reproducing their study, I found that the estimated number of new and ongoing volcanic eruptions on Venus in a given year is approximately 42, instead of the previously reported 120 eruptions. This updated estimate of Byrne & [...]

Additive Model Perturbations Scaled by Physical Tendencies for Use in Ensemble Prediction

Michael Tsyrulnikov, Elena Astakhova, Dmitry Gayfulin

Published: 2022-11-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Imperfections and uncertainties in forecast models are often represented in ensemble prediction systems by stochastic spatio-temporal perturbations of model equations. A new technique for this purpose termed Additive Model-uncertainty perturbations scaled by Physical Tendencies (AMPT) is proposed in this article. AMPT employs the previously developed Stochastic Pattern Generator (Tsyrulnikov and [...]

The small-amplitude dynamics of spontaneous tropical cyclogenesis

Hao Fu, Morgan O'Neill

Published: 2022-11-23
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Cloud-permitting simulations have shown that tropical cyclones can form spontaneously in a quiescent environment with uniform sea surface temperature. While the moisture-radiation instability is known as the main mechanism for early-stage growth, two key questions remain unresolved: First, how does the noisy cumulus cloud field organize into a mesoscale perturbation? Second, what determines the [...]

Call for collaboration: Benchmark datasets for landslide susceptibility zonation

Massimiliano Alvioli, Liesbet Jacobs, Marco Loche, et al.

Published: 2022-11-23
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Landslide susceptibility, the spatial likelihood of occurrence of landslides in a specific geographical area, is the subject of countless scientific publications. Different authors use heterogeneous data, and apply many different methods, mostly falling under the definition of statistical and/or machine learning approaches, with the common feature of considering many input variables and a single [...]

The effect of uncertainties in creep activation energies on modeling ice flow and deformation

Meghana Ranganathan, Brent Minchew

Published: 2022-11-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Ice deformation is commonly represented by a power-law constitutive relation, Glen's Flow Law, where deformation (strain) rate equals stress raised to the power n and multiplied by a flow-rate parameter A. Glen's Law represents bulk ice rheology as a single power-law even though multiple mechanisms, each with their own power-law relation and parametric values, act together during viscous [...]

Positive Matrix Factorization of Large Aerosol Mass Spectrometry Datasets Using Error-Weighted Randomized Hierarchical Alternating Least Squares

Benjamin Sapper, Daven Henze, Manjula Canagaratna, et al.

Published: 2022-11-17
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Weighted positive matrix factorization (PMF) has been used by scientists to find small sets of underlying factors in environmental data. However, as the size of the data has grown, increasing computational costs have made it impractical to use traditional methods for this factorization. In this paper, we present a new weighting method to dramatically decrease computational costs for these [...]

How reproducible is geophysical research? A review of the availability of code, software and data in journals

Mark Ireland, Guillermo Algarabel, Michael Steventon, et al.

Published: 2022-11-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sustainability

Geophysical research frequently makes use of agreed methodologies, formally published software, and bespoke code to process and analyse data. The reliability and repeatability of these methods is vital in maintaining the integrity of research findings and thereby avoiding the dissemination of unreliable results. In recent years there has been an increased attention on aspects of reproducibility, [...]

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