Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Fast climate impact emulation for global temperature scenarios with the Rapid Impact Model Emulator (RIME)
Published: 2025-03-25
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Climate model emulation has long been applied to assess the global climate outcomes of IAM emissions scenarios, but is typically limited to first-order climate variables like mean surface air temperatures at minimal regional resolution. Here we introduce RIME, the Rapid Impact Model Emulator, which uses global warming level interpolation approaches based on inputs of global mean air temperature [...]
An Improved Methodology to Estimate Cross-Scale Kinetic Energy Transfers from Third-Order Structure Functions using Regularized Least-Squares
Published: 2025-03-25
Subjects: Analysis, Applied Statistics, Fluid Dynamics, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Methodology, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics
Several methods exist for estimating cross-scale kinetic energy (KE) transfers; however, they are ill-adapted for sparse ocean observations, hindering the study of oceanic KE transfers. A newly developed third-order structure function $D3(r)$ framework allows estimation of KE injection rates $\epsilon_j(k)$ and KE transfers $F(k)$ across scales using sparse data. This approach requires inverse [...]
Nanogeios Nanoliquid CO₂ – Performance Evaluation of Hybrid Nanofluid-Enhanced Liquid CO₂ for Advanced District and Data Center Cooling Applications
Published: 2025-03-22
Subjects: Chemical Engineering, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Engineering, Engineering Science and Materials, Mechanical Engineering, Neuroscience and Neurobiology, Other Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics
This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of a novel hybrid nanofluid-enhanced liquid CO₂, engineered to address cooling challenges in water-scarce environments. Developed by NanoGEIOS, the fluid combines graphene oxide (GO) and carbon nanotubes (CNTs) in a 1:1 ratio (2 vol%) and is optimized using AI-powered NanoFusion dispersion technology. The nanofluid exhibits a 77% increase in thermal [...]
Three times accelerated glacier area loss in Svalbard revealed by deep learning
Published: 2025-03-22
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The rapid warming in polar regions highlights the need to monitor climate change impacts such as glacier retreat and related global sea level rise. Glacier area is an essential climate variable but its tracking is complicated by the labour-intensive manual digitisation of satellite imagery. Here we introduce ICEmapper, a deep learning model that maps glacier outlines from Sentinel-1 time series [...]
Non-linear dynamical approaches for multi-sector climate resilience under irreducible uncertainty
Published: 2025-03-22
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Internal climate variability (ICV) remains a major source of uncertainty in climate projections, complicating impact assessments across critical sectors. Given that ICV emerges from the nonlinear interactions of the climate system, we argue that nonlinear dynamical (NLD) approaches can improve its characterization, providing physically interpretable insights that strengthen adaptation strategies [...]
Weakening of AMOC linked to past Greenland Ice Sheet retreat
Published: 2025-03-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Paleontology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
A weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is predicted to occur under multiple scenarios of future warming. However, the effect of meltwater from a decaying Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) on AMOC is uncertain. Using a basin-wide network of North Atlantic sediment cores, we show that the largescale melting of the GrIS during a previous interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 11c [...]
Unprecedented Social-Ecological Impacts of the 2023 Extreme Drought in the Central Amazon
Published: 2025-03-21
Subjects: Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
While the 2023 record-breaking drought led to widespread social-ecological impacts across Amazonia, local impacts of such extreme events are rarely described in detail. Here we leverage a large interdisciplinary data collection related to social and ecological impacts in the Central Amazon. Compound hazards (reduced river water levels, lack of rainfall, high water/air temperatures, river erosion [...]
Holocene rapid (decades) multi-metre marine transgressions by climatically driven Antarctic ice-collapse events. Another event imminent?
Published: 2025-03-20
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The controversial 1961 'Fairbridge Curve' of Holocene global sea-level (SL), showing metre-scale (to ~5m) oscillations based on carbon-dated geological index points (SL 'benchmarks''), is vindicated by syntheses (companion-articles by present author) of the literature on: (1) Holocene sea level, exposing flawed assumptions and methods in constructing non-oscillating SL curves; and (2) English [...]
Holocene oscillatory sea level: literature review and implications for imminent anthropogenic multi-metre transgression
Published: 2025-03-20
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The famous 1961 'Fairbridge Curve' of Holocene sea level (SL) shows metre-scale (up to ~5m) oscillations, based on a worldwide compilation of carbon-dated geological data-points. Dozens of later authors found further evidence for such fluctuations; while dozens of others, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), deny oscillations >50cm. The debate is settled here by (1) [...]
Geological review of English coastal archaeological evidence portending multi-metre sea-level rise by 2100
Published: 2025-03-20
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
English archaeological literature, its sea-level significance hitherto underappreciated, is reviewed here from a geological (sedimentological) perspective. Five Roman-built (~300AD) waterside forts and a seaside palace (~100AD), all meticulously excavated by archaeologists, tightly dated (tree-rings, coins, pottery), and published in great detail, yield evidence proving a ~4-metre (m) sea-level [...]
Some mechanical and thermal manifestations of the 1908 Tunguska event near its epicenter
Published: 2025-03-19
Subjects: Education, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This paper is a continuation of a series of works, devoted to various aspects of the 1908 Tunguska event. It is devoted to some manifestations near the epicenter of the event. Many of the manifestations were established back in the 1960s. Recently a couple of works have appeared that reveal previously undetected phenomena, namely, traces of exposure to high temperatures and high pressure. A [...]
The New Method of Estimation Greenhouse Effect and Climate Change
Published: 2025-03-19
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Global climate change is one of the major concerns of modern society. To estimate this change, the global mean temperature is often used. Measuring and calculating the Earth’s average temperature is a complex, multi-step process that combines data from various sources and employs statistical techniques. Today, datasets containing spatial-temporal data on Earth’s temperature are readily [...]
Physically consistent sectoral pathways for phasing out fossil fuels
Published: 2025-03-18
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The transition away from fossil fuels relies on electricity-producing renewable energy sources. To understand how much electricity is needed to substitute fossil fuels, sectors of the economy being electrified must be analysed discretely, as their suitability for electrification varies significantly. Constructing, operating, and maintaining these renewable power plants requires substantial [...]
Large reductions in United States heat extremes found in overshoot simulations with SPEAR
Published: 2025-03-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Increases in the intensity and frequency of heatwaves are already evident in the observational record, and these increases are expected to be further amplified in future climate projections with greater radiative forcing. However, it is unclear how temperature extremes will respond regionally to emissions reductions and declines of greenhouse gases later in the 21st century, such as through the [...]
An Enhanced Deep-Learning Catalog of the Mw 8.8 Maule Aftershock Sequence
Published: 2025-03-17
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We re-examine the aftershock sequence of the Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake in south-central Chile using deep learning on 10 months of continuous seismic data from 156 temporary stations along the rupture zone (March 2010–March 2011). By integrating back-projection and matched filtering with PhaseNet (a deep-learning phase picker), we initially identify 99,137 earthquakes. We then relocate these events [...]