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Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Tidal flexure reveals effective elasticity in grounding zones on the Ross Ice Shelf

Faye M. Elgart, Brent Minchew, Colin R. Meyer

Published: 2025-04-10
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The grounding zones of Antarctic ice shelves are among the continent’s most dynamic regions, where floating ice shelves buttress grounded upstream ice and tidal forcing drives cyclic flexure at the ice-ocean-bed interface. We use ICESat-2 altimetry and airborne ice-penetrating radar to constrain the effective Young’s modulus E* of ice in the flexure zone at three sites on the Ross Ice Shelf. By [...]

Differential Impacts of Marine Heatwaves and Coldwaves on Air-Sea CO2 Flux Across Global Oceans

Zhao Meng

Published: 2025-04-10
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The contrasting impacts of marine heatwaves (MHWs) and marine cold waves (MCWs) on the ocean carbon cycle remain insufficiently understood. Based on observational and reanalysis data from 1990 to 2019, this study investigates the global-scale responses of air-sea CO2 fluxes (FCO2) to MHWs and MCWs. Results reveal that MHWs and MCWs exert opposing influences on FCO2, with the magnitude of [...]

How the Magnetic North Pole and Energetic Particle Precipitation Control Earth's Climate

Chris Barnes

Published: 2025-04-09
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The hypothesis that the position of the magnetic North Pole (Dip Pole) (latitude) ought to be very highly correlated with global temperature change on Earth has been tested and shown to be correct. The probability of such a correlation happening by chance is close to zero. Moreover, this has likely been the dominant climate driver for the last 2000 years. A Granger causality test shows Pole [...]

Deep source regions for Patagonia backarc volcanism imaged by finite frequency body wave tomography

Walid Ben-Mansour, Valerie Maupin, Douglas A Wiens, et al.

Published: 2025-04-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure, Volcanology

The subduction of Chile Ridge beneath South America beginning 12-16 Myr ago opened a gap in the subducting slab beneath southern Patagonia, which migrated northward and is located today at 46oS. Geodynamic processes associated with the slab window are poorly understood. Here we apply finite-frequency P and S body wave tomography to seismic data from several temporary arrays as well as regional [...]

Assessing Future Ice Shelf Collapse Vulnerability in the ISMIP6 Ensemble

Benjamin Reynolds, Sophie Nowicki

Published: 2025-04-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Understanding the possibility of future ice shelf collapses similar to the Larsen B is critical for improving sea-level-rise projections due to the restraint on upstream flow that ice shelves provide. Prior research has provided a criterion for assessing the vulnerability of ice shelf to hydrofracture. We apply these calculations to the model ensemble results from the Ice Sheet Modeling [...]

An event-based methodology to estimate emissions from upstream O&G sites

Mozhou Gao, Zahra Ashena, Steve H.L. Liang, et al.

Published: 2025-04-05
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Estimating annual site-level emissions in the oil and gas (O&G) sector is a key requirement for regulatory and voluntary initiatives worldwide. This study introduces an Emission Event Data Model (EEDM) that applies Allen’s interval algebra and spatial proximity to group multi-scale emissions observation and O&G operational data into discrete events. The model classifies emissions events [...]

A New Fault Model for the 1933 Long Beach Earthquake, Long Beach Area, Southern California

Steve Boljen, Dan Gish

Published: 2025-04-05
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Newly identified thrust faults and their corresponding thrust sheets, combined with recent micro-earthquake epicenters, better explain anomalous rupture data observed during the 1933 Long Beach Earthquake than previous models based exclusively on Newport-Inglewood Fault Zone strike-slip faulting. A high-quality 45 km2 3D seismic dataset was recorded in 2017, centered along the Seal Beach [...]

Geoscientific Input Feature Selection for CNN-driven Mineral Prospectivity Mapping

Arya Kimiaghalam, Kyubo Noh, Andrei Swidinsky

Published: 2025-04-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

In recent years, machine learning techniques such as convolutional neural networks have been used for mineral prospectivity mapping. Since a diverse range of geoscientific data are often available for training, it is computationally challenging to select a subset of features that optimizes model performance. Our study aims to demonstrate the effect of optimal input feature selection on [...]

Chaotic variability of the magnetic field at Earth's surface driven by ionospheric and space plasmas

Alexander Bershadskii

Published: 2025-04-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

It is shown that the universal chaotic/turbulent processes in space (solar wind and magnetosphere) and in ionospheric plasmas drive the chaotic temporal variability and determine the level of randomness of the magnetic field at Earth's surface in the temporal range from a few hours to a few years. The results of observations provided by the spacecraft and satellite missions, and the global [...]

Active Face Emissions: An Opportunity for Reducing Methane Emissions in Global Waste Management

David Risk, Athar Omidi, Evelise Bourlon, et al.

Published: 2025-04-03
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

This study used mobile surveys of ten Canadian landfills to assess how methane emissions varied across different landfill sources and operational conditions. The studied landfills included two closed landfills, four open landfills equipped with Gas Collection and Control Systems (GCCS), and four open landfills operating without GCCS. We employed the Gaussian dispersion model to estimate emissions [...]

Multiple scattering of seismic waves in a heterogeneous magmatic system and spectral characteristic of long period volcanic earthquakes

Mirko Bracale, Michel Campillo, Nikolai M. Shapiro, et al.

Published: 2025-04-03
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Long-Period (LP) volcanic earthquakes are characterized by a relatively long duration codas and spectra containing pronounced spectral peaks. These peculiar spectral characteristics are often attributed to source effects, such as resonances of fluid-filled cracks. In this paper, we report the results of numerical simulations of seismic wave propagation showing that the main signal features of the [...]

Embedding seismic scattering from seismograms

Reza Esfahani, Mirko Bracale, Léonard Seydoux, et al.

Published: 2025-04-03
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Heterogeneities in the Earth's crust scatter seismic waves at many scales, trapping seismic energy and producing coda waves that encode valuable information on geological structures. In regions such as volcanoes and fault systems, analyzing coda waves is essential for characterizing non-uniform subsurface heterogeneity, improving interpretation and seismic imaging. Here, we apply unsupervised [...]

Examining copper supply feasibility in decarbonization pathways: a mine-level dynamic approach

Gaël Parpan, Baptiste Andrieu, Olivier Vidal, et al.

Published: 2025-04-01
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Primary copper production capacity is a major concern in light of estimates of future demand. This issue is not sufficiently taken into account in models providing decarbonization pathways. Our study assesses the feasibility of SSPs basic drivers for primary copper requirements derived from the DyMEMDS model, alongside our projections of primary copper production capacities. We introduce a [...]

Finding the potential height of tropical cyclone storm surges in a changing climate using Bayesian optimization

Simon D A Thomas, Dani Jones, Talea Mayo, et al.

Published: 2025-04-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

We introduce a new framework for systematically exploring the largest storm surge heights that a tropical cyclone in a given climate can create. We calculate the tropical cyclone potential intensity and the potential size from climate model projections and find that both these limits increase in response to climate change. We then use Bayesian optimization with a barotropic ocean circulation [...]

Volcano flank instabilities and lateral collapse

Lucia Capra, Alexander Belousov, Benjamin Bernard, et al.

Published: 2025-03-31
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The gravitational instability and subsequent lateral collapse of a volcano is a common phenomenon observed in most types of volcanoes, from continental to oceanic environments. Both intrinsic and extrinsic factors contribute to volcanic collapse, including the volcano's internal structure, geological setting, and a range of volcanic and non-volcanic processes, including climatic conditions. [...]

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