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Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The Geological Pathway Diversity Model (GPDM): A Unified Classification and Predictive Framework for Anomalous Luminous Phenomena

John Carter

Published: 2026-04-16
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Other Physics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure

Atmospheric plasma phenomena — persistent luminous orbs, recurrent earth lights, and earthquake lights observed at geographically distributed sites worldwide — share a common mechanism family rooted in stress-activated electronic charge carrier physics. The Geological Pathway Diversity Model (GPDM) formally classifies six geological activation pathways. Version 2.4 introduces four new Variable 3 [...]

Width-Saturated Fault Scaling and AI-Driven Seismic Hazard: A Global First-Principles Machine Learning Framework

Sujan Bhattarai

Published: 2026-04-16
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) relies on empirical magnitude-area scaling relationships that systematically overestimate energy release in large, geometrically saturated fault systems. This study presents a dynamic, data-driven framework integrating first-principles geophysics with Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) to produce a physics-informed global seismic hazard [...]

A Google Earth Engine Tool for Mapping Key Metrics of Glacier Health from Space

Kara Ann Lamantia, Laura Larocca, Rainey Aberle, et al.

Published: 2026-04-14
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Satellite-based observations enable monitoring of glacier health metrics, essential for assessing glacier response to climate change and the environmental services they provide. Here, we present a Google Earth Engine tool for automated mapping of key climate- and mass balance- modulated parameters, including total visible ice area, snow-covered area (SCA), accumulation-area ratio, and snowline [...]

Estimating the ice thickness and water depth of a frozen lake using flexural waves recorded by distributed acoustic sensing

Eduardo Valero Cano, Ludovic Moreau, Felix Anton Strobel, et al.

Published: 2026-04-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Information about frozen lakes, including ice rigidity, ice thickness, and water depth, is essential for both environmental studies and practical applications. Although these properties can be measured in the field, such measurements are labor-intensive and spatially limited, motivating the development of alternative observation methods. Seismic waves offer an alternative approach to studying [...]

Geospatial Machine Learning for Predicting Flash Flood Response at Ungauged Appalachian Watersheds: Terrain, Soil, and Land Cover Controls

Sujan Bhattarai

Published: 2026-04-14
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Flash floods remain among the deadliest weather hazards in the United States, yet the majority of flood-prone watersheds in the Appalachian region lack streamflow monitoring. Predicting flood response characteristics at these ungauged sites requires understanding which landscape properties control hydrologic behavior. This study evaluates whether geospatial basin descriptors derived from [...]

Paleoarchean seawater and seafloor hydrothermal processes: insights from 3.5 to 3.3 Ga carbonate geochemistry

Wanli Xiang, Dr., Jan-Peter Duda, Prof. Dr., Andreas Pack, Prof. Dr., et al.

Published: 2026-04-13
Subjects: Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Carbonates (3.5 to 3.3 Ga) in the East Pilbara Terrane (EPT), Western Australia, including interstitial carbonate between pillow basalts, fracture-filling calcite, sedimentary carbonates and carbonate associated with stromatolites, provide valuable geochemical archives for reconstructing Early Earth environments. This study highlights three key findings: (1) Fracture-filling calcite D-2-W from [...]

Agent-based Modelling of Microbialite Formation through Sedimentation and Precipitation Dynamics

Niall Rodgers, Laurane Fogret, Mark Van Zuilen, et al.

Published: 2026-04-13
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Other Earth Sciences, Paleobiology, Paleontology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy

Fossil microbialites resulting from the interplay of sedimentation and microbially induced precipitation are among the oldest evidence of life on Earth and help geobiologists interpret many sedimentary environments. However, the factors governing their internal structure and external morphology are still poorly understood. Additionally, abiotic processes can mimic the morphology of some [...]

Learning-Based Methods and the Future of Numerical Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling

Charlotte Durand, Daria Botvynko, Hugo Frezat, et al.

Published: 2026-04-11
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The field of operational oceanography is undergoing a significant evolution with the increasing integration of artificial intelligence (AI) methods, which are complementing and, in some cases, redefining traditional numerical modeling approaches. This review explores how AI methods—particularly model-based autoregressive emulators, hybrid modeling, and end-to-end model-free approaches—are [...]

Fractal Tomography and the Fisher Information Barrier of Seismicity: Addressing the Origin of Dual Paradoxes via Precision-Calibrated Bayesian Inference

Facundo Firmenich, Pau Firmenich, León Firmenich

Published: 2026-04-10
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Non-linear Dynamics, Other Statistics and Probability, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Methodology, Statistics and Probability, Tectonics and Structure

The spatial organization of seismicity presents dual multi-decade paradoxes: (1) earthquake catalogs exhibit quasi-planar correlation dimensions (D2 ≈ 2.0–2.6) despite volumetric lithospheric deformation (geometric projection paradox), and (2) Bayesian inference systematically yields D3 ≈ 3.0 contradicting structural geology (Bayesian saturation paradox). We address both through the Fractal [...]

Climate variability introduces uncertainty into future emissions pathways

James Gilroy Larson, Patrick W Keys, Frances Moore, et al.

Published: 2026-04-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences

Uncertainty in long-term climate outcomes arises not only from physical processes but also from societal responses to climate variability and change. Here we embed a range of temperature anomalies into an empirically-informed, coupled climate–social model to investigate how natural temperature variability shapes global emissions trajectories. Using Monte Carlo ensembles spanning social, [...]

Persistent Geochemical Zonation (“Striping”) within the Galápagos Mantle Plume

Matthew Lloyd Morgan Gleeson, Mark Richards, Cinzia G Farnetani, et al.

Published: 2026-04-10
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Some hotspot tracks, such as those formed by the Hawai’i and Galápagos mantle plumes, exhibit long-lived cross-track isotopic zonation, thought to reflect the streaking out of heterogeneous material in the plume conduit during upwelling. In lavas associated with the Galápagos mantle plume, three geochemical domains, present for at least 15 Myr, have been identified: northern, southern and [...]

HydroScholar AI: A Collaborative Agent for End-to-End Automated Hydrological Research Lifecycle

Vinay Pursnani, Yusuf Sermet, Ibrahim Demir

Published: 2026-04-09
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Hydrological research relies on multi-stage computational workflows that are often slow, fragmented across disparate tools, and inconsistently documented, limiting reproducibility. This study presents HydroScholar AI, an agentic, human-in-the-loop platform that consolidates the plan-to-paper research lifecycle into a single interactive automated framework. From a natural-language prompt, the [...]

Modeling PDC cutter-rock interactions using finite discrete element method for geothermal drilling applications

Erin Heilman, Bryan Euser, Luke Frash, et al.

Published: 2026-04-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) cutters are used in geothermal energy drilling operations as they are exceptionally effective due to their strength and resistance to abrasion. It is important to understand the effect of downhole conditions to accurately model rock-cutter-rock interactions, as well as wear on the bit and drilling efficiency. Cutting efficiency is determined through the [...]

Automated Detection of Slow Slip Events from InSAR: Application to the North Anatolian Fault

Estelle Neyrinck, Baptiste Rousset, Cécile Doubre, et al.

Published: 2026-04-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure

The growing volume of InSAR time series offers new opportunities to systematically detect transient aseismic deformation, but identifying low-amplitude slow slip events (SSEs) remains challenging due to noise and limited temporal resolution. Here, we adapt the geodetic matched filter, originally developed for GNSS data, to InSAR displacement time series in the context of shallow strike-slip [...]

Simulation of Groundwater Flow To Evaluate Hydrogeologic Controls on a PFAS Plume, Coakley Landfill Superfund Site, Rockingham County, New Hampshire

Philip T Harte, Andrew Collins

Published: 2026-04-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), including perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS), have been detected at combined concentrations above 2,000 nanograms per liter (ng/L) at groundwater seep locations near the Coakley Landfill Superfund site, in North Hampton, New Hampshire. The landfill was active from 1972 to 1985. An impermeable cap was placed on the [...]

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