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Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Data Assimilation in Reduced-order Model of Chaotic Earthquake Sequences

Hojjat Kaveh, Jean-Philippe Avouac, Andrew Mark Stuart

Published: 2025-07-22
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Realistic models of earthquake sequences can be simulated by assuming faults governed by rate-and-state friction embedded in an elastic medium. Exploring the possibility of using such models for earthquake forecasting is challenging due to the difficulty of integrating Partial Differential Equation (PDE) models with sparse, low-resolution observational data. This paper presents a [...]

Tephra fallout and associated deposits (Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, 3rd edition, book chapter)

Marco Pistolesi, Paul G. Albert, Alvaro Aravena Ponce, et al.

Published: 2025-07-22
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology

The lifecycle of volcanic fall deposits begins with explosive fragmentation, continues as particles rise through the atmosphere, and culminates with sedimentation on the ground. This chapter explores how fall deposits can reveal the unique eruption and transport processes that shaped them. While we can directly observe modern eruptions to understand their dynamics, unobserved volcanic events are [...]

Existence of Charnockites in Hellas Basin, Mars

Adnan Ahmad, Archana M Nair, Tomson Kallukalam, et al.

Published: 2025-07-19
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Charnockite, an orthopyroxene-bearing granitic rock, is formed under high-temperature and high-pressure environments. Charnockite exhibits spectral characteristics similar to mafic rocks in the VNIR region and shows low emissivity at ~ 8.5 µm due to its high quartz content in the TIR region. The association of charnockite with the Anorthosite-Mangerite-Charnockite-Granite suite make it a suitable [...]

The Seismic Fingerprint of Tree Sway

Josefine Umlauft, Karin Mora, Fabian Limberger, et al.

Published: 2025-07-18
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme events like heat waves, droughts, and storms, placing forests under growing physiological and mechanical stress. Common indicators of tree stress, such as sap flow, stomatal conductance, water potential, or photosynthetic activity, provide valuable insights but are costly, maintenance-intensive, and difficult to scale for [...]

Desert dust exerts a substantial longwave radiative forcing missing from climate models

Jasper F Kok, Ashok Gupta, Amato Tomas Evan, et al.

Published: 2025-07-18
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Historical increases in desert dust have affected climate by perturbing Earth’s energy balance, including through interactions with longwave radiation that remain poorly quantified. Here, we use a data-driven analytical model to estimate the global dust longwave direct radiative effect (DRE). Our results align with observational estimates of longwave radiative effects, constraining the [...]

Ice dynamic and hydrological response to ice-dammed lake drainages at Isunnguata Sermia, West Greenland

Stephen Livingstone, Robert Storrar, Samuel Doyle, et al.

Published: 2025-07-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Ice-marginal lakes are increasingly common around Greenland and are important for modulating glacier runoff and dynamics. This study investigates the evolution of a ~3 km2 and up to ~100 m deep ice-dammed lake at Isunnguata Sermia, West Greenland. Satellite observations between 1987 and 2024, and field observations of a 2023 drainage using passive seismics, GNSS and time-lapse imagery reveal that [...]

A Constraint-Convergent Framework for Tornado Formation (the ARCH Equation)

Tahir Rahman

Published: 2025-07-16
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Despite significant advances in meteorological observation and modeling, the precise prediction of tornado occurrence remains a persistent challenge. Traditional forecasting approaches often rely on additive or probabilistic frameworks, assuming that the likelihood of a tornado increases as favorable parameters accumulate. However, many environments that appear highly conducive to tornadoes fail [...]

Statistical rock physics inversion for assessing source rock properties from seismic signatures: an application to the Canning Basin, Australia

Jiayuan Huang, Allegra Hosford Scheirer, Tapan Mukerji

Published: 2025-07-15
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

Quantifying petrophysical properties and potentials of source rocks is important for subsurface modeling and characterization. However, predicting these properties using seismic signatures and well-log information is a high-dimensional, nonlinear inverse problem, and is subject to uncertainty due to data ambiguities. In this study, a statistical rock physics inversion workflow is proposed to [...]

Volcano-tectonic controls on magmatic evolution at Campi Flegrei, Italy: insights from thermodynamic modelling

Fay M Amstutz, Michael Stock, Victoria C Smith, et al.

Published: 2025-07-15
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology

Campi Flegrei caldera (Naples, southern Italy) is one of the most hazardous volcanoes on Earth, having produced more than 70 eruptions in the past 15 kyr, and currently showing significant signs of unrest within a densely populated part of Europe. Post-15 ka eruptions span a range of eruptive styles and compositions, which broadly correlate with the spatial and structural location of vents within [...]

Flux Modulated Magmatic Architecture in Continental Magmatic Arcs

Charles Lewis, Shan de Silva

Published: 2025-07-14
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Petrochronology of the magmatic reservoir that underpinned the Chaxas Volcanic Complex for the duration of its 8.59 – 1.24 Ma lifecycle reveals that magmatic architecture can be regulated by magmatic flux. Modulation of the magmatic reservoir was controlled via two distinct flux regimes during the Pre-Chaxas and Chaxas Complex stages of the Chaxas Volcanic Complex, emphasizing the dynamic nature [...]

Ancient DNA and lipid biomarkers quantify the climate sensitivity of highland shrubification in Iceland

David Harning, Samuel Sacco, Jonathan Raberg, et al.

Published: 2025-07-12
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Future changes in high latitude shrubification are expected to lead to changes in ecosystem structure and positive climate feedbacks, but the rates and elevational range of shrubification are still poorly constrained. Using a sediment record from a small lake in Iceland’s eastern highlands (422 m asl), we merge a sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) record of Betula with mean summer lake temperature [...]

Insights into the 3D structure and behaviour of Icelandic crystal mushes from gabbroic nodules

RAHUL SUBBARAMAN, Margaret Hartley, Jonathan Fellowes, et al.

Published: 2025-07-11
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Crystal mushes – porous yet cohesive frameworks of crystals interspersed with interstitial melts – form the plumbing systems of active volcanoes. In Iceland, magmatic plumbing systems are inferred to be constructed from vertically stacked mushy magma reservoirs separated by subsolidus rock. Gabbroic nodules from Gígöldur in central Iceland provide a rare window into the structure, evolution, and [...]

GROW: A Global Time Series Dataset for Groundwater Studies within the Earth System

Annemarie Bäthge, Claudia Ruz-Vargas, Gunnar Lischeid, et al.

Published: 2025-07-10
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Groundwater is a central component of the Earth system. However, our understanding of how it is dynamically interlinked with the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, geosphere, and anthroposphere remains limited. In the pursuit of understanding groundwater dynamics across diverse global settings, we present GROW (global integrated GROundWater package). This analysis-ready, [...]

Variable methane–arsenic interactions in groundwater of Northern Bangladesh revealed by stable isotopes and geochemical analyses

Kai Ernst, Charlotte Stirn, Martin Maier, et al.

Published: 2025-07-10
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The reductive dissolution of arsenic (As)-bearing Fe(III) (hydr)oxides is widely regarded as the primary mechanism driving As mobilisation into groundwater in the aquifers of Bangladesh. Recently, methane (CH4) has been proposed as a potentially important electron donor in this process, with CH4 oxidation by methanotrophic bacteria facilitating Fe(III) reduction and subsequent As release. [...]

Glacier algae phenology on the Qaanaaq Ice Cap (Northwest Greenland)

Giacomo Traversa, Yukihiko Onuma, Davide Fugazza, et al.

Published: 2025-07-08
Subjects: Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Glacier algae are relevant factors in the darkening phenomenon of glaciers, especially at the margins of the ice sheets. This study focuses on glacier algae variation during summer seasons in the 2016-2023 period at Qaanaaq Ice Cap, NW Greenland. Based on ice samples and field spectroscopy measurements, an empirical model is proposed to estimate glacier algae abundance from a reflectance ratio [...]

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