Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Carbon and the Elements of Life: Integrated Observing and Modeling of Marine Biological Carbon Cycles
Published: 2026-09-25
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biodiversity, Biogeochemistry, Biology, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The global ocean acts as a massive reservoir for carbon dioxide, establishing ocean biogeochemistry as a primary driver of global carbon distributions [1-3]. This dynamic system is mediated by living organisms that cycle carbon and other elements through the ocean interior and air-sea interface, and is already being altered by warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and shifting nutrient supply [...]
Rare deglacial-aged corals point to weaker El Niño in a colder world
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Extreme El Niño events, the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have increased in frequency since the late 20th century, intensifying concerns about ENSO’s response to a changing climate and its far-reaching impacts on global weather. Yet climate model projections of future ENSO behaviour remain divergent, and simulations under past glacial boundary conditions likewise lack [...]
A brief history of equifinality in hydrological modelling: from GST to GLUE to ML
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Education, Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
AbstractEquifinality has shaped hydrological modelling for five decades. The equifinality thesis rejects the concept of an “optimal” model in favour of the possibility that different model structures or parameter sets can provide similarly acceptable representations of a system when uncertainties in the forcing and evaluation data are considered, especially when those data are subject to [...]
Deep seismo-volcanic tremors constrain the magma supply from the mantle
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
Volcanic eruptions are driven by magma supplied from the mantle, yet deep magmatic flux remains poorly constrained. Here we propose to quantify it based on deep seismic tremors. We adopt a model of tremor generation by rapid growth of gas bubbles in response to magma decompression and establish a physical relationship between the cumulative seismic moment and the volume of the ascending magma. By [...]
Subvolcanic magma pathways in transtensional regimes; AMS and structural evidence from SE Iceland
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study presents an integrated analysis of magmatic and tectonic strain data recorded within and around the Reyðarártindur intrusion, southeast Iceland, combining anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) with UAV-based fracture mapping. Thermomagnetic experiments and petrography confirm AMS fabrics capture magmatic-state strain, defining a consistent NNE–SSW magnetic lineation with [...]
A Probabilistic Framework for Site-Specific Tropical Cyclone Loss Quantification and Reinsurance Optimization
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Computational Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Quantifying the financial risk posed by landfalling tropical cyclones requires statistical methods that extend beyond the limits of a short and non-stationary historical observational record. This paper explores techniques for improving site-specific loss estimation in tropicalcyclone catastrophe risk, an area of ongoing interest to insurance and reinsurance pricingand solvency capital [...]
Ambient Noise Surface-Wave Polarization in Anisotropic Media: Theory, Measurement, and Interpretation
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We develop an adiabatic theory and practical methodology for measuring quasi-Rayleigh and quasi-Love polarization from the complete ambient noise cross-correlation tensor. The formulation allows the polarization parameters at both stations of a pair to be estimated jointly and, under sufficiently adiabatic propagation, interpreted in terms of local anisotropic structure at those locations. A new [...]
Hydrogeology and Water Quality of the Unconsolidated Aquifer System in the Lower Fall Creek Valley, Tompkins County, New York
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Tompkins County and the Town of Dryden, conducted a hydrogeologic investigation of the lower Fall Creek unconsolidated aquifer system in Tompkins County, New York. This study is part of an ongoing effort to characterize major valley-fill aquifers in the region to support sustainable groundwater management. The lower Fall Creek valley, encompassing [...]
New mapping along Ishtar Terra margins: use and limits of Magellan SAR data for testing Venus crustal plateau formation models
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The origins of crustal plateaus on Venus are poorly understood. Several formation models have been proposed, including four previously explored models: downwelling, upwelling, pulsating continents, and bolide impact models; as well as a waning heat-pipe model. Key predictions which vary across models include surface deformation, marginal deformation, and the tessera-plain onlapping relationships. [...]
Three-Dimensional Numerical Modeling of Glacier Flow and U-Shaped Valley Evolution in Subtropical Taiwan
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Glacial erosion plays a critical role in shaping alpine topography,yet the coupled effects of ice deformation, basal sliding, andbedrock erosion on millennial-scale valley morphodynamics remainchallenging to quantify. This study presents three-dimensionalsimulations of glacier dynamics and bed evolution in Xue MountainGlacial Cirque No.~2, Taiwan, over an effective glaciation timescaleof 9~ka. [...]
P-T-t-d history of the Greater Himalayan Sequence in the Zanskar Shear Zone, NW India
Published: 2026-09-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure
We present a synthesis of pressure-temperature-time-deformation (P-T-t-d) conditions that track the evolution of the Greater Himalaya Sequence (GHS) exhumed along the Zanskar Shear Zone (ZSZ), the western arm of the South Tibetan Detachment and that spans the entirety of the Himalayan range. The dominant mineralogy is Qz + Kfs + Pl + Bt + Grt + Ilm + Sil(Fi) ± Ms ± Ky ± St. P-T paths constructed [...]
Urban Sprawl and Traffic-Related Air Pollution in Greater Gaborone: A Spatial Analysis of the Land Use–Transport–Environment Relationship
Published: 2026-09-23
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Rapid urban sprawl in many Sub-Saharan African cities has significantly reshaped urban mobility patterns, resulting in longer commuting distances, increased private vehicle dependence, and growing pressure on major transport corridors. These trends have important implications for environmental quality, urban sustainability, and climate resilience. This paper investigates the spatial relationship [...]
Changes to the Madden-Julian Oscillation with Surface Temperature Warming in Aquaplanet Simulations
Published: 2026-09-23
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Interactions between waves and the mean-state in the tropics are of fundamental importance for reliable future projection of tropical waves and their impacts under anthropogenic climate change. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant source of weather variability over many parts of the globe on intraseasonal timescales. In this study, we investigate the influence of mean-state changes [...]
Assessment of methods for collection, preservation, and storage of water samples for dissolved methane and nitrous oxide concentration measurements
Published: 2026-09-23
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) are potent greenhouse gases produced and consumed in freshwater and marine systems. Their measurement in water is challenging due to contamination risks at various sampling, storage, and analysis stages. Samples that are stored before analysis are commonly preserved with mercuric chloride (HgCl2), which is highly toxic. To date, no studies have conducted a [...]
DispSAC: Surface-wave dispersion inversion using soft actor-critic reinforcement learning
Published: 2026-09-23
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Surface-wave inversion (SWI) is widely used to image shear-wave velocity structure in the crust and upper mantle. Locally linearized methods offer computational efficiency but can be sensitive to the initial model and regularization, whereas Bayesian sampling methods can characterize model uncertainty at substantial computational cost. Neural networks provide another route to efficient inversion, [...]