Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
On the seasonal predictability of the 2020 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The 2020 Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) season was exceptionally active, producing over twenty named storms, yet several seasonal forecasts failed to predict such extreme activity across their ensemble spread. Even when forced with the observed 2020 sea surface temperatures (SSTs), physics-based models simulated only a moderately active season across their ensemble members. Using observations and [...]
Cube2sph-GPU: A GPU accelerated toolkit enabling flexible continental-scale regional and teleseismic full waveform inversion
Published: 2026-03-03
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We present Cube2sph-GPU, a GPU-accelerated framework for continental-scale regional and teleseismic full-waveform inversion (FWI). Building upon the capabilities of SPECFEM3D_Cartesian, the toolkit introduces: (1) a flexible hybrid simulation scheme for tele-seismic simulations; (2) curvilinear C-PML; (3) spherical PDE-based kernel smoothing; and (4) highly optimized GPU kernels and I/O [...]
Accounting for uncertainty from internal variability in global-temperature based attribution of climate extremes with single realisations
Published: 2026-03-03
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Attribution of regional climate change to anthropogenic forcing within the single realisation available from observations is an important but challenging goal for statistical methods in climate science. Correlating regional conditions with global temperatures is a popular approach, especially for attributing downstream impacts on human health or the economy. However, the influence of internal [...]
Water-efficient Indian rice cultivation boosts exports despite high carbon footprints
Published: 2026-03-03
Subjects: Agriculture, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Sciences, Plant Sciences
Most agricultural sustainability efforts adopt a national-scale view, masking regional trade-offs between crop yields and environmental footprints. To measure trade-offs, satellite remote sensing based life cycle assessment of rice agroecosystems across India from 2004 to 2021 was conducted revealing pivotal shifts of four cultivation typologies, termed as unsustainable, conventional, productive, [...]
Resonant Activation of Oxygen as a Hypothetical Method for Low-Temperature Oxidation of Methane in Coal Seams: Theoretical Analysis, Parametric Modeling, and Regime Maps
Published: 2026-03-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This paper presents a comprehensive theoretical study of a hypothetical method for low-temperature oxidation of methane directly within a coal seam. The method is based on resonant excitation of molecular oxygen by an electromagnetic field at ∼1.6 MHz, corresponding to its EPR transition in the Earth's geomagnetic field. The work includes calculation of a priori determinable parameters (resonant [...]
Proof-of-Concept: Vertical Wind Profile Reconstruction from Ground-Based Optical Sensors Using Machine Learning
Published: 2026-03-01
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Mathematics, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Vertical wind profiles are critical for weather forecasting, aviation safety, and atmospheric research, yet remain sparsely observed due to the high cost of radiosondes (€100–200 per launch) and wind profiler radars (€100,000–1,000,000). We present a proof-of-concept demonstrating that ground-based optical measurements from low-cost amateur radio sensors can predict upper-air wind speeds across [...]
Quantifying Wave Setup Climatology along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts using a Coupled Hydrodynamic-Wave Model
Published: 2026-02-28
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Wave setup, the increase in coastal mean water level due to wave breaking, is an important but understudied component of coastal sea-level long-term variability. This study quantifies the wave setup climatology along the U.S. East and Gulf of Mexico coasts using high-resolution hydrodynamic (ADCIRC) and wave (SWAN) models. The models are forced with hourly surface pressure and wind fields, total [...]
Multi-Parametric Assessment of Avian Biodiversity and Anthropogenic Disturbance for Conservation Prioritization in Belize
Published: 2026-02-28
Subjects: Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Background: Anthropogenic climate change and rising levels have accelerated global warming, causing severe disruptions to Belizean ecosystems through sea-level rise and habitat fragmentation. To mitigate these impacts, identifying high-value land for protected status is a critical conservation priority for maintaining medicinal biodiversity and preventing zoonotic disease spillover. Objective: [...]
Structural Shifts in Urban Air Pollution Patterns in Trinidad After COVID-19: Evidence from Diurnal and Weekday/Weekend PM Profiles, 2022-2024
Published: 2026-02-27
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The COVID-19 pandemic temporarily reduced air pollution by disrupting human mobility. This study tests whether particulate pollution patterns in Trinidad and Tobago underwent lasting structural change during the post-pandemic period 2022-2024. We analyse continuous PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ observations from four Environmental Management Authority monitoring sites representing distinct source environments: [...]
Error-aware surrogate modeling for accelerated three-dimensional probabilistic inversion of controlled-source electromagnetic data
Published: 2026-02-26
Subjects: Education, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We present a workflow for three-dimensional probabilistic inversion of controlled-source electromagnetic data that effectively balances accuracy and computational efficiency. The approach mitigates the high computational cost of forward modeling by employing a surrogate model derived from a mesh coarsening strategy. To account for the modeling errors inherent to this approximation, we implement a [...]
Foreshock Acceleration Linked to Slow Earthquakes Before a Large Earthquake: Implications for Two-Stage Aseismic Processes
Published: 2026-02-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Foreshocks are important for understanding the initiation process of large earthquakes. It has long been suggested that the acceleration of foreshock activity is driven by precursory aseismic fault slip. However, observational evidence supporting this relationship remains limited. Furthermore, while slow earthquakes—diverse low-velocity fault slip phenomena—frequently occur at plate boundaries, [...]
Paleo- and Neo-Tethyan subducted slabs beneath the Eastern Mediterranean region
Published: 2026-02-25
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The late Paleozoic to recent Alpine-Himalayan orogen contains the geological remnants of subducted lithosphere of the Paleotethys and Neotethys oceans and of microcontinents within these. Along its ~12,000 km length, this orogenic belt is divided into segments marked by abrupt changes along-strike. These discontinuities align with paleo-transform faults, across which the histories of ocean [...]
A Scalable Borehole Thermometry Framework for Process-Based Monitoring of Near-Surface Thermal Dynamics Across Polar and High-Mountain Cryosphere Systems
Published: 2026-02-25
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics
Rapid climate warming is fundamentally altering the thermal structure and stability of glaciers, ice sheets, and ice shelves across polar and high-mountain environments. While satellite remote sensing and surface meteorological networks provide essential observations of atmospheric forcing and surface conditions, the near-surface subsurface layer (approximately 0–3 m depth)—where energy is [...]
Real-time Forecasting and Operational Control of Perceivable Induced Seismicity in Geo-Energies
Published: 2026-02-25
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Geo-energies, including enhanced geothermal systems, geological carbon storage, and underground hydrogen storage, are essential for decarbonizing the energy and heavy industry sectors. However, their widespread implementation is hindered by the risk of perceivable induced seismicity. This review begins by evaluating existing seismic hazard mitigation schemes, particularly the traffic light system [...]
Sub-pixel mapping of disturbance and tree mortality dynamics from Sentinel-2 time series around the globe
Published: 2026-02-24
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Biogeochemistry, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Natural Resources and Conservation, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Elevated forest disturbances and excess tree mortality are increasingly reported worldwide. Yet existing assessments are either based on patchy terrestrial observations or on large-scale satellite products, which are limited in resolution to pixel-level, binary tree loss detection. This leaves a blind spot on fine-scale disturbances where only a few trees are declining in an otherwise intact [...]