Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Large-scale flow toward low-velocity anomalies reconciles seismic and geodynamic constraints in the deepest mantle beneath Alaska
Published: 2025-12-05
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Deep mantle downwellings are typically located away from the two Large Low-Velocity Provinces (LLVPs) in Earth's mantle. Geodynamic models based on global seismic tomography generally predict that convective flow at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) spreads laterally away from downwelling regions and towards LLVPs. While this offers a framework for understanding large-scale deformation in the [...]
Comment on Barboni et al. (2025), ‘Pervasive impact modification of pristine lunar clasts’
Published: 2025-12-05
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Sciences
In a recent contribution, Barboni et al. (2025) present an experimental calibration relating the aluminium content of zircon and its parent melt under lunar conditions. This calibration is then used to argue that lunar zircons are not in equilibrium with their host silicate melts, and that caution is required when interpreting zircon-derived U-Pb dates in evolved lunar rocks. Their contribution [...]
Open-source tools for making geometrically-complex fault surfaces
Published: 2025-12-05
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Three--dimensional fault geometries are critical for realistic analyses of crustal deformation, seismic hazard, and rupture dynamics, yet 3D fault datasets are sparse outside a few well--studied regions. We present a set of free and open-source QGIS plugins that enable users to construct accurate 3D fault surfaces from common types of geological and geophysical data. The workflow combines (1) [...]
Recurrent evacuation of mantle mush by mafic recharge in ocean island basalts, recorded by La Palma clinopyroxene
Published: 2025-12-03
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
Temporal variations in magma plumbing architecture and magmatic processes influence eruption priming and the interpretation of pre- and syn-eruptive signals. Yet, how these processes operate in low-flux volcanoes remains poorly constrained, leaving a key gap in understanding eruption precursors. Here we examine the temporal evolution of magmatic processes at La Palma, Canary Islands, a low-flux [...]
Revised History of Pleistocene Vertical Motions in NE Sicily and Southern Calabria, Italy, from 40Ar/39Ar Dating and Fault Zone Morphology
Published: 2025-12-03
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Stratigraphy, Tectonics and Structure
Long-term rates of crustal uplift in southern Calabria and NE Sicily are incompletely understood due to limited information about the age of marine terraces at 1.0–1.3 km above sea level (asl). This study provides a new constraint on high-elevation terrace ages through integrated analysis of geochronology, stratigraphy, shoreline modeling, and fault-zone morphology. 40Ar/39Ar step-heating [...]
Evaluating Trade-offs Between Irrigation Profit and Streamflow Depletion Using a Hydro-Economic Model
Published: 2025-12-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
Groundwater overexploitation can reduce flows in connected rivers through streamflow depletion, which threatens ecosystems and downstream users who often rely on these flows for their economic wellbeing. Quantifying groundwater-surface water interactions and their economic trade-offs remains challenging for sustainable water management. This study integrates analytical groundwater and streamflow [...]
The Formation of Seaward-dipping Reflectors in Volcanic Margins: Insights from High-resolution Visco-elasto-plastic Geodynamic Models with Extrusive Surface Processes
Published: 2025-11-29
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seismic reflection data from volcanic margins show thick packages of seaward-dipping reflectors (SDRs) that are commonly interpreted as buried subaerial lava flows. The origins of SDRs remain debated with proposed mechanisms including (1) syn-kinematic extrusion of lava flows on extended continental crust, (2) progressive rotation of subaerial lava flows due to volcanic loading and magmatic [...]
Estimating the Global Oil-Gas Methane Emission Rate Distribution at Facility Scale using Multiple Satellite Systems
Published: 2025-11-28
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We estimate the global oil and gas (OG) emission rate distribution above ~20 kg h-1 at facility scale using 16,294 quantified OG methane emission rates detected from five high-resolution satellite instrument/data processing combinations in 2024 and 2025 (GHGSat/GHGSat, Tanager/Carbon Mapper, EMIT/Carbon Mapper, Sentinel-2/IMEO-MARS, Landsat/IMEO-MARS). We find that the emission rate distribution [...]
Characterization of historical rainfall patterns: linear segmentation and quadratic bifurcation
Published: 2025-11-28
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This article proposes a method for characterizing rainfall transitions based on historical series. Two synthetic parameters are analyzed: the annual or seasonal amount of rainfall (RR) and the median of daily rainfall (m). This median is estimated by means of a log-logistic adjustment (Fisk), ensuring a robust measurement of the daily rainfall distribution. Two complementary approaches are used [...]
Foreshock Behaviors and Mainshock Rupture Properties Associated with the 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka Earthquake Sequence
Published: 2025-11-27
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The July 29 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka earthquake ruptured the plate interface off the east coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula along the Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone. Following the mainshock, tsunamis were recorded in multiple countries along the Pacific Ocean boundary and its islands, along with the eruption of several volcanoes in Kamchatka. The mainshock was preceded by a strong foreshock sequence [...]
Retrospective Detection of Seismic Precursors Using Multi-Scale Energy Curvature
Published: 2025-11-27
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Energy curvature controls catastrophic failure in seismic systems. We show this through a self-normalizing logarithmic functional Fω = ω(t)² · log(1 + |ω(t)| / median(|ω|)), where ω is the second derivative of seismic energy release. When F stays bounded, the system remains stable. When F diverges, rupture becomes more probable. Our precursor detection method combines spectral analysis using [...]
Short-term morphological response of rubble coral islands to the impact of a small tropical cyclone
Published: 2025-11-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are extreme storm events with the potential to cause significant damage to coral reef and island ecosystems. The evolution of coral rubble (shingle) islands within these ecosystems relies on the complex eco-morphodynamic relationship between the supply of biogenic sediment from the reef and subsequent transport by hydrodynamic forces. Storms have the potential to alter [...]
A First Principles Critique of the Back Calculation Method: Understanding and Assessing the Alteration of Atmospheric Gases Trapped in Ancient Fluid Inclusions
Published: 2025-11-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The extraction of atmospheric gases from fluid inclusions has emerged as an extremely promising approach for directly constraining the composition of Earth's ancient atmospheres. However, the veracity of data obtained from these inclusions critically depends on how well one can account for the effects of physical chemistry and post-depositional alteration. The Back Calculation Method (BCM) [...]
Timescales of Antarctic ice shelf loss via basal crevassing
Published: 2025-11-26
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Antarctic ice-shelves are vulnerable to collapse in a warming climate. However, when this might happen is largely unknown, propagating significant uncertainty into sea-level-rise projections. To constrain this uncertainty, we use fracture modelling to predict the timescales on which crevasses fully penetrate ice-shelves, and consider how these timescales change under future warming. We find that [...]
Computation to Choose a Future: Planetary Stewardship in the Age of AI
Published: 2025-11-26
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The accelerating transformations of the Anthropocene demand governance systems capable of anticipating and steering complex, nonlinear Earth-system dynamics. Existing models optimize for likely trajectories rather than exploring a broader set of futures. This commentary introduces the concept of Computational Foresight (CF): an integrative framework combining artificial intelligence, simulation, [...]