Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Simulation analysis method of drainage system of tideland paddy zone
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The tideland paddy zone drainage system plays an important role in preventing flood damage and protecting the tideland paddy zone by draining the rainwater from the paddy zones and the surrounding catchments in good time. Therefore, scientific design of drainage system and accurate assessment of drainage capacity in tideland paddy zones are important for sustainable development in agricultural [...]
Modelling Winter Atmospheric River Frequency over the Western Himalayas Using Large-Scale Climate Modes Via Statistical Approach
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Winter Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) contribute substantially to precipitation in the Western Himalayas, but how large-scale climate modes jointly influence their frequency remains unclear. In this study, we use a statistical method that combines correlation, phase-composite analysis of Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT), and predictive models such as linear regression, Generalized Linear Models (GLMs), [...]
The importance of ice shelf melt rate distributions in modelling of Antarctic ice loss
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Glaciology, Oceanography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Ocean-induced basal melting of ice shelves is a major cause of Antarctic ice loss. It is well known that the magnitude of this melt is an important factor to consider when modelling the future evolution of the ice sheet, and values of total melt volume or mean melt rates are often quoted for ice shelves. The finer detail of the distribution of this melt is usually given less attention. Here we [...]
Fault roughness as a driver of rupture complexity in fluid-induced microearthquakes
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Subsurface fluid-injection can induce microearthquakes whose rupture complexity and arrest mechanisms remain poorly understood, limiting our ability to assess the seismic hazard associated with geo-energy applications. We investigate how fault roughness modulates the response of fluid-pressurized faults using an ensemble of 1395 3D dynamic rupture simulations on self-similar rough faults, varying [...]
The Elastic Stiffness C13 in Transversely Isotropic Shales
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Shales are often anisotropic due to fine-scale layering and preferred alignment of clay particles with bedding. They may be approximated as transversely isotropic (TI) media with symmetry axis (x3) perpendicular to bedding. TI media have five independent elastic stiffnesses C11, C33, C55, C66 and C13, with C12 = C11−2C66. While C11, C33, C55 and C66 may be estimated from velocities measured [...]
Post-Fire Resuspension of Metal Toxins at the Wildland–Urban Interface
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Medicine and Health Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
After wildland–urban interface (WUI) fires, the severe destruction leaves metal-containing materials on the ground. During post-fire recovery, wind, debris removal, vehicle movement, and reconstruction can disturb these residues and release these materials into the air. However, what toxic metals are released into the air from fire-altered materials and what controls their airborne release are [...]
Experiential and Collective Responses to Health Implications of Extreme Weather Events
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Education, Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Extreme weather events, including wildfires, are becoming more frequent, intense, and consequential for human health. Scientific advances have improved our ability to characterize hazards and the socioeconomic constraints shaping exposure, but these dimensions are not always integrated throughout the development of environmental health knowledge. Meanwhile, broader publics, although often not [...]
Sea-Level Change in Asia since the Last Glacial Maximum
Published: 2026-09-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
As a ‘far-field’ area, distal from former ice sheets, Asia is minimally influenced by the glacial isostatic adjustment process. Therefore, Relative sea-level (RSL) data from Asia, recorded by various geological proxies, provide essential constraints on the history of ice-equavilent sea-level changes. The global mean sea-level has risen over 130 m on average since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), [...]
Seismoacoustic recovery of the SpaceX CRS-32 Dragon re-entry with a proof-of-concept for automated detection
Published: 2026-09-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Atmospheric re-entries of human-made objects are increasing in frequency, yet detailed information on their trajectory, fragmentation, and debris footprint is rarely made publicly available. This creates an information asymmetry in which regulators, independent agencies, and the scientific community lack the means to verify that re-entries occurred as reported or to characterize their physical [...]
Krasheninnikov eruption facilitated by M8.8 Kamchatka earthquake and hidden critical state
Published: 2026-09-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
Large earthquakes can trigger volcanic eruptions, but the required conditions and mechanisms remain uncertain. Here, we investigate whether the August 2025 eruption of Krasheninnikov volcano, Russia, was facilitated by the July 29th, 2025, Mw 8.8 Kamchatka megathrust earthquake. InSAR observations from 2016 to 2025 show no pre-earthquake inflation and satellite SO2 data indicate no detectable [...]
Estimating CO2 Leakage Fluxes along Legacy Wells Using a Rapid Physics-Based Screening Approach
Published: 2026-09-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Geology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Petroleum Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Achieving net-zero targets demands the rapid expansion of CO2 geological storage, but legacy wells in mature petroleum provinces represent a significant containment risk when engineered barriers degrade. At the early assessment stage, storage projects need to rapidly bound plausible leakage magnitudes across large legacy-well inventories when integrity data are sparse; however, suitable modelling [...]
Investigation of Drivers and Sources of Potential Harmful Algal Blooms in Lake Anna, Virginia, 2023–24
Published: 2026-09-02
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
Algal blooms in freshwater reservoirs are an increasing concern because of the risk to aquatic ecosystem health, recreational use, and water quality. Among the taxa that comprise an algal bloom, cyanobacteria are of particular concern due to the potential to produce toxic compounds which can cause acute and chronic illness in humans if ingested through contaminated water or shellfish. When toxins [...]
A cascade, not a flood: testing the competing accounts of the 26 August 2026 Lhende Khola–Bhote Koshi disaster
Published: 2026-09-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Glaciology, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
On 26 August 2026 a rock–ice mass detached above the Lhende Khola on the China–Nepal border, blocked the channel, and released a flow that travelled about 100 km down the Bhote Koshi and Trishuli, killing hundreds of people and removing about a tenth of Nepal's generating capacity in a single morning. Reporting produced mutually incompatible accounts of the cause, while the agency best placed to [...]
Recurrent High-Resolution Satellite Observations Quantify Facility-Resolved Annual Large-Emitter Methane Emissions in the Permian Basin
Published: 2026-08-31
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Repeated high-resolution satellite observations can identify large methane emissions from individual oil and gas facilities, but sparse sampling, intermittent emissions, and variable observation conditions complicate the estimation of annual facility-level emissions. We develop an empirical hierarchical Bayesian method to estimate facility-resolved annual large-emitter methane emissions, with [...]
Quantifying Uncertainty in Climate Sensitivity Metrics Using Large Ensemble Observational Datasets
Published: 2026-08-31
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Gridded surface temperature observational datasets are an important line of evidence for estimating climate sensitivity metrics. Climate sensitivity metrics are often derived from comparing historical warming in these observations against climate model simulations, an approach that is known to be sensitive to the choice of observational dataset. With observational products now providing large [...]