Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Quantifying the contributions of climate change and adaptation to mortality from unprecedented extreme heat events
Published: 2025-02-15
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Understanding the mortality effects of the most extreme heat events is central to climate change risk analysis and adaptation decision-making. Accurate representation of these impacts requires accounting for the effects of prolonged sequences of hot days on mortality, the change in that mortality due to anthropogenic forcing, and the potential compensating effects of adaptation to heat. Here, we [...]
Positive isotropic components of the 2025 Santorini-Amorgos earthquakes
Published: 2025-02-14
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We used full waveforms of the Hellenic Unified Seismic Network (HUSN) regional stations and a frequency range of 0.03-0.06 Hz. We calculated full moment tensors (MTs) and focused on their ISO and CLVD components. In the tested depth range of 1-20 km, the medians of ISO (=VOL) and CLVD are positive, but their 68% confidence intervals are broad due to the tradeoff of the non-DC with depth. When [...]
Cross-Shelf transport by (storm-modified, sandy) hyperpycnal flows in the Eastern Rhenish Massif during the Upper Eifelian, Middle Devonian
Published: 2025-02-13
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
High-resolution sedimentary facies analysis on ten profiles (252.24 m total length) reconstructed a complex depositional system characterised by cross-shelf sediment transport via (storm-modified) hyperpycnal flows in the Unnenberg Formation (Upper Eifelian, Middle Devonian) of the Eastern Rhenish Massif. The hyperpycnal-fed prodeltaic shelf system comprised proximal and distal lobe deposits [...]
A practical metric for estimating the current climate forcing of natural mires
Published: 2025-02-13
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Commensuration of the radiative effects of different greenhouse gases (GHGs) is crucial for understanding the effects of land cover and ecosystem changes on the global climate. However, none of the current commensuration approaches are suitable for addressing the current climatic effect of mire ecosystems as compared to the situation in which such mires would not exist. The mire ecosystems have [...]
Effects of Stress and Friction Heterogeneity on Spatiotemporal Complexity of Seismic and Aseismic Slip on Strike-Slip Faults
Published: 2025-02-13
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Numerical and laboratory models of earthquake cycles on faults governed by rate-and-state friction often show cycle-invariant behavior, while natural faults exhibit considerable variability in slip history. Possible explanations include heterogeneities in fault stress and frictional properties. We investigate how various types of heterogeneity in simulations of quasi-dynamic sequences of seismic [...]
Mid-crustal strain localisation triggered by localised fluid influx and activation of dissolution-precipitation creep
Published: 2025-02-12
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
To understand how the mid-crust deforms is vital in understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of strain localisation, with implications for upper-crust deformation including seismic hazard. Here, we conduct fieldwork and microstructural and chemical analyses on the amphibolite-facies, 100-m-wide Upper Badcall shear zone in northwest Scotland, which deforms initially anhydrous [...]
Managing Smoke Risk from Wildland Fires: Northern California as a Case Study
Published: 2025-02-11
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Smoke fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from increasing wildfires in the western United States threatens public health. While land managers often prioritize reducing wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface, the impact on regional air quality from mitigating wildfire spread is less explored. We develop a framework to quantify wildfire contributions to smoke exposure and assess targeted land [...]
Inclusive Qualifying Exams Toolkit
Published: 2025-02-08
Subjects: Education, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Doctoral qualifying or comprehensive exams are widely used in the earth and space sciences, yet research on assessment pervasively demonstrates that high-stakes exams are heavily biased and poor predictors of success. To address these issues and work towards broadening participation in these fields, this toolkit presents related-research and strategies for academic units looking to update their [...]
Glacially enhanced silicate weathering revealed by Holocene lake records
Published: 2025-02-08
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
How glaciation affects CO2 drawdown by chemical weathering sets the strength of the weathering-climate feedback, which controls the exogenic carbon cycle and planetary habitability (Kump et al., 2000). However, the exact role of glaciers remains elusive as glaciation alters multiple factors controlling weathering, the net effect of which is ambiguous even in directionality. While illustrative, [...]
From Magma Chambers to Magma Oceans: A Unified Model for the Thermo-chemical-mechanical Evolution of Magma Bodies
Published: 2025-02-07
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Sciences
Magma bodies play a critical role in Earth's geological evolution, influencing volcanic activity, crustal differentiation, and planetary-scale processes. Understanding their thermo-chemical and mechanical evolution requires models that integrate fluid dynamics, phase changes, and chemical transport. This study presents a new numerical model that couples these processes using a multi-phase, [...]
A New Theory of Global Climate and Ecosystem Change Based on Planetary Orbital Variations
Published: 2025-02-05
Subjects: Education, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Traditional climate change research has primarily focused on internal factors of Earth, particularly the impact of human activities on greenhouse gas emissions. This paper proposes the "Mao's Theory of Global Climate and Ecosystem Change Based on Planetary Orbital Variations", which suggests that changes in Earth's climate and ecosystems are primarily driven by the orbital variations of external [...]
The b value as a strain meter: a comparison of the 1982-1984 and 2005-2024 volcanic unrest at Campi Flegrei - Italy
Published: 2025-02-05
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Campi Flegrei caldera has experienced several episodes of volcanic unrest during the last few centuries, most notably in 1982-1984 and 2005-present. These periods of unrest are characterized by ground uplift, seismic swarms, and increased degassing. In this study, we compare the seismicity and associated b value variations during the 1982-1984 and 2005-2024 unrest periods. The b value is [...]
A simple model for predicting agronomy floods in rice fields in Bicol, Philippines
Published: 2025-02-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Climate change is expected to intensify the impacts of flood events on agricultural production, particularly in flood-prone regions like the Philippines, where rice farming is heavily affected by frequent typhoons. Flood forecasting and early warning systems can aid in mitigating these risks; however, the insufficient coverage of hydrometric monitoring stations and limited computational resources [...]
Cross-equatorial northerly surges associated with extratropical cold surges and tropical variability over the Maritime Continent
Published: 2025-02-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Cross-equatorial northerly surge (CENS) is characterized by a strengthening of northerly moist monsoon winds over south of the South China Sea in the western Maritime Continent. The CENS typically lasts a few days in boreal winter and is frequently reported as a crucial synoptic forcing of heavy rainfall and flood events over northern Java Island. The occurrence of CENS has been generally [...]
Feasibility of Time-Lapse Surface Seismic for CO2 Monitoring: A Case Study from the Decatur CCS Site, Illinois, United States
Published: 2025-01-31
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We study the feasibility of time-lapse surface seismic to detect and monitor CO2 plume movement over the time at the onshore Decatur CCS site, United States. We develop and test a workflow, integrating results from subsurface characterization, dynamic flow simulation, rock physics, time-lapse fluid saturation logs, and operational information to model surface seismic responses of the [...]