Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
A Changing North Atlantic Background Amplifies Western European Heatwaves
Published: 2026-09-06
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Western European summer heatwaves have increased markedly since the 1990s, culminating in the record warmth of May–July 2026 since 1950. We show that this rise is closely associated with the slowly evolving North Atlantic background. We combine two leading April sea surface temperature modes, representing basin-wide warming and a tripole-like pattern, into an Atlantic Two-Mode Index (ATMI). The [...]
Station spacing bounds the recovery of rainfall extremes by interpolation: an independent-network test with consequences for landslide thresholds
Published: 2026-09-06
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Gridded rainfall products interpolated from gauge networks underpin landslide early warning, and a common view holds that their main deficiency in mountains is the omission of orographic enhancement. This study tests that view using an independent network: 464 mountain stations operated by the Korea Forest Service that do not enter the operational grid of the Korea Meteorological Administration. [...]
A Unified Forearc Subsidence Model Based on the Three-Arc Unjoined Structure of the Honshu Arc
Published: 2026-09-06
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study reinterprets the subsidence, uplift, fault activity, and geomorphic development observed in the Nōbi Plain, Ise Bay, Lake Biwa, Wakasa Bay, and Osaka Bay through a new structural framework in which the Honshu Arc is understood as an incompletely joined system of three arcs. The Southwest Japan Arc (narrow sense), the Hida–Tamba Terrane, and the Northeast Japan Arc approached each other [...]
Systematic Evaluation of a Transformer-Based Surrogate for Distributed Groundwater Dynamics: Long-Horizon Prediction, Dynamic–Static Fusion, and Data Augmentation
Published: 2026-09-05
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Transformers are increasingly reshaping artificial-intelligence-based Earth system prediction, yet their suitability for distributed groundwater surrogate modeling remains poorly understood. Groundwater dynamics combine strong temporal persistence with spatial interactions governed by heterogeneous hydrogeological conditions. These characteristics make attention-based architectures potentially [...]
Typhoons reseal mountain groundwater systems after earthquake damage
Published: 2026-09-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Bedrock groundwater supplies drinking water to half the global population, and earthquakes can disrupt this resource for years by changing subsurface permeability. Previous studies proposed several mechanisms to explain coseismic permeability changes but lacked an observational tool to distinguish them; moreover, all assumed an immediate onset. Here, we analyse groundwater and seismic data from [...]
Isochrone overturning in steady glacier flow
Published: 2026-09-04
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Ancient ice recovered at Allan Hills extends into the Miocene, but steep layers, age reversals and folds complicate its interpretation. Whether steady glacier flow can overturn initially ordered layers remains uncertain. Here, we track the horizontal order of particles deposited sequentially at the surface. This order is measured by a signed Jacobian that is equivalent to the inverse [...]
Simulation analysis method of drainage system of tideland paddy zone
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The tideland paddy zone drainage system plays an important role in preventing flood damage and protecting the tideland paddy zone by draining the rainwater from the paddy zones and the surrounding catchments in good time. Therefore, scientific design of drainage system and accurate assessment of drainage capacity in tideland paddy zones are important for sustainable development in agricultural [...]
Association of Atmospheric River Frequency over the Western Himalayas with Large scale Modes of Climate Variability
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Winter atmospheric rivers (ARs) contribute substantially to precipitation in the Western Himalaya, but how large-scale climate modes jointly influence their frequency remains unclear. Using 19 climate modes and their interactions over 39 winters (1980-2018), we combine correlation, phase-composite analysis of integrated vapor transport (IVT), and linear, generalized linear (GLM) and generalized [...]
The importance of ice shelf melt rate distributions in modelling of Antarctic ice loss
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Glaciology, Oceanography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Ocean-induced basal melting of ice shelves is a major cause of Antarctic ice loss. It is well known that the magnitude of this melt is an important factor to consider when modelling the future evolution of the ice sheet, and values of total melt volume or mean melt rates are often quoted for ice shelves. The finer detail of the distribution of this melt is usually given less attention. Here we [...]
Fault roughness as a driver of rupture complexity in fluid-induced microearthquakes
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Subsurface fluid-injection can induce microearthquakes whose rupture complexity and arrest mechanisms remain poorly understood, limiting our ability to assess the seismic hazard associated with geo-energy applications. We investigate how fault roughness modulates the response of fluid-pressurized faults using an ensemble of 1395 3D dynamic rupture simulations on self-similar rough faults, varying [...]
The Elastic Stiffness C13 in Transversely Isotropic Shales
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Shales are often anisotropic due to fine-scale layering and preferred alignment of clay particles with bedding. They may be approximated as transversely isotropic (TI) media with symmetry axis (x3) perpendicular to bedding. TI media have five independent elastic stiffnesses C11, C33, C55, C66 and C13, with C12 = C11−2C66. While C11, C33, C55 and C66 may be estimated from velocities measured [...]
Post-Fire Resuspension of Metal Toxins at the Wildland–Urban Interface
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Medicine and Health Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
After wildland–urban interface (WUI) fires, the severe destruction leaves metal-containing materials on the ground. During post-fire recovery, wind, debris removal, vehicle movement, and reconstruction can disturb these residues and release these materials into the air. However, what toxic metals are released into the air from fire-altered materials and what controls their airborne release are [...]
Experiential and Collective Responses to Health Implications of Extreme Weather Events
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Education, Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Extreme weather events, including wildfires, are becoming more frequent, intense, and consequential for human health. Scientific advances have improved our ability to characterize hazards and the socioeconomic constraints shaping exposure, but these dimensions are not always integrated throughout the development of environmental health knowledge. Meanwhile, broader publics, although often not [...]
Sea-Level Change in Asia since the Last Glacial Maximum
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
As a ‘far-field’ area, distal from former ice sheets, Asia is minimally influenced by the glacial isostatic adjustment process. Therefore, Relative sea-level (RSL) data from Asia, recorded by various geological proxies, provide essential constraints on the history of ice-equavilent sea-level changes. The global mean sea-level has risen over 130 m on average since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), [...]
Seismoacoustic recovery of the SpaceX CRS-32 Dragon re-entry with a proof-of-concept for automated detection
Published: 2026-09-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Atmospheric re-entries of human-made objects are increasing in frequency, yet detailed information on their trajectory, fragmentation, and debris footprint is rarely made publicly available. This creates an information asymmetry in which regulators, independent agencies, and the scientific community lack the means to verify that re-entries occurred as reported or to characterize their physical [...]