Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
3D dynamic rupture modeling of the 2021 Haiti earthquake used to constrain stress conditions and fault system complexity
Published: 2024-12-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The 2021 Mw7.2 Haiti earthquake was a devastating event which occurred within the Enriquillo Plantain Garden Fault Zone (EPGFZ). It is not well-understood why neither the 2021 nor the prior Mw7.0 2010 earthquake were simple strike slip events and, instead, ruptured with distinct patches of dip slip and strike slip motion on largely separate fault planes. We develop several 3D dynamic rupture [...]
An Analytical Model for CO2 Surface Forcing, with Application to the Direct Precipitation Response
Published: 2024-12-15
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
If temperature is held constant, increasing atmospheric CO2 reduces atmospheric radiative cooling and suppresses precipitation. Global Climate Models suggest this “direct” precipitation response ranges from -2% to -3% per CO2 doubling and hence contributes significantly to the net precipitation response of +3% to +9% per CO2 doubling. Our study aims to explain the magnitude and state-dependence [...]
Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C
Published: 2024-12-15
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Glaciers adapt slowly to changing climatic conditions, resulting in long-term changes in their mass with implications for sea level rise and water supply, even if the climate were to stabilize. Using eight glacier evolution models, we simulate global glacier evolution over multi-centennial timescales, allowing glaciers to equilibrate with climate under various constant global temperature [...]
Modest, not extreme, northern high latitude amplification over the Mid to Late Miocene shown by coccolith clumped isotopes
Published: 2024-12-13
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The ongoing global warming is characterized by a high latitude amplification effect, with Northern Hemisphere air temperatures increasing significantly faster than the global average. Widely-used paleotemperature proxies suggest that during past warm climate states, there was extreme high-latitude and polar amplified warming, along with flat latitudinal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients. [...]
Evaluation and prediction of the Effects of Planetary Orbital Variations to Earth’s Temperature Changes
Published: 2024-12-11
Subjects: Education, Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Existing climate studies mainly assessed the effect of greenhouse gases and aerosols, among other forcings on Earth’s temperature. None of them has not evaluated the effect of the planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature. Here, we deconvolved the effects of greenhouse gases and planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature and to forecast the latter at different time scales. Our [...]
Demise of the Barra Honda carbonate shoal (Costa Rica) at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary linked to climate change and forearc tectonics
Published: 2024-12-11
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The latest Cretaceous(?)–Paleocene Barra Honda Formation represents one of the largest carbonate shoals (>900 km2, 350 m thick) of the convergent margin of Costa Rica. Although the mode of formation of the carbonate shoal is well understood, how environmental and tectonic factors interacted to cause its demise near the Paleocene-Eocene boundary remains poorly constrained. Stable isotopic, [...]
Joint effects of submesoscale lateral dispersion and biological reactions on biogeochemical flux
Published: 2024-12-11
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Submesoscale dynamics, operating at spatial scales of O(1−10 km) and temporal scales of O(1 day), are particularly important for marine ecosystems as they occur on similar timescales as phytoplankton growth, enabling biophysical feedbacks. While submesoscale dynamics are known to impact biological fluxes by modifying nutrient upwelling, horizontal transport has traditionally been assumed to only [...]
Disappearance of Homo floresiensis from Liang Bua alongside seasonal aridification of Flores 61,000-47,000 years ago
Published: 2024-12-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Fresh Water Studies, Geochemistry, Hydrology, Paleobiology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Speleology
The cause of the disappearance of the primitive hominin, Homo floresiensis, from the Indonesian island of Flores ~50,000 years ago is a key question in palaeoanthropology. The potential roles of human agency and climate change continue to be debated, but the history of freshwater availability critical to survival at the type locality, Liang Bua, remains unknown. Although speleothem 18O is used [...]
WMSAN Python Package: From Oceanic Forcing to Synthetic Cross-correlations of Microseismic Noise
Published: 2024-12-09
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seismic ambient noise spectra show ubiquitously two amplitude peaks corresponding to distinct oceanic wave interaction mechanisms called primary (T≈ 14s) and secondary (T ≈ 7s) microseismic peaks. Seismic noise records are used in a wide range of applications, including crustal monitoring, imaging of the Earth’s deep interior using noise correlations, and studies on the coupling between oceans [...]
Theory and Conditions for AI-Based Inversion Paradigm of Geophysical Parameters Using Energy Balance
Published: 2024-12-07
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
To construct a universal artificial intelligence (AI) model for geophysical parameter inversion, this study proposes a new remote sensing parameter inversion paradigm theory by changing cognition to unify physical, statistics and AI methods. Using the energy balance equation, we demonstrate that establishing a closed system of physical inversion equations between input and output variables in [...]
Seismic Data Interpretation of the Rashidpur Anticline: Implications for Structural Analysis and Trapping Mechanisms
Published: 2024-12-07
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Rashidpur anticline, trending N-S, is a surface anticline with reverse faulting located in an area characterised by low hillocks. It is part of the youngest structural province along the western flank of the Indo-Burman Ranges, formed by the oblique subduction of the Indian plate beneath the Burmese plate. Many folds in the area are influenced by faults along their axes. Seismic transect [...]
Innovation-based Methods for Estimating Observation Error Variances During Ensemble Data Assimilation
Published: 2024-12-06
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Comprehensive global dataset of 300,000 uniformly processed shear-wave splitting measurements with regular updates
Published: 2024-12-06
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seismic anisotropy can inform us about convective flow in the mantle. Shear waves traveling through azimuthally anisotropic regions split into fast and slow pulses, and measuring the resulting shear-wave splitting provides some of the most direct insights into Earth’s interior dynamics. Shear-wave splitting is a constraint for path-averaged azimuthal anisotropy and is often studied regionally, [...]
Geoscience for Earth Stewardship, Sustainability and Human Well-being: a conceptual framework for integrating planet, prosperity and people
Published: 2024-12-02
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
There is a growing view that the mission of the Earth sciences ought to be reframed around the global sustainability agenda, and specifically the grand challenges of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Yet the SDGs are criticised for lacking a coherent sense of the complex interconnections and synergies between its economic, environmental and social ambitions, for maintaining the impetus of [...]
An Integrated Geothermal Resource Assessment and Techno-Economic Analysis in Presidio County of the Trans-Pecos Region of Texas
Published: 2024-11-30
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Presidio County of the Trans-Pecos region of Texas has substantial, undeveloped geothermal resources. We conduct a thorough, multi-scale characterization of geothermal resources and assess techno-economics for power generation and direct use facilities. We integrate surface geology, high-resolution gravity, borehole geophysical logs, and core data for subsurface characterization and carry out [...]