Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
GEOCHEMICAL DIAGNOSTICS OF COAL GENOTYPES: METHOD, CALIBRATION, AND BASIN TYPOLOGY
Published: 2026-03-10
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study presents a geochemical method for discriminating coal types based on vitrinite maceral composition (telinite vs. collinite), using trace element ratios normalized to a reference aluminum content of 1.5%. Analysis of 146 samples from 13 coal basins demonstrates that conventional geochemical proxies (V/Ni, Ni/Co, U/Th, V/Cr) are unreliable for paleoenvironmental interpretation, whereas [...]
Remote Forcing of Internal Waves in Regional Ocean Models
Published: 2026-03-10
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Regional oceanic general circulation models with nested grids are an essential approach to allow the use of higher grid resolutions. High resolution is required for the study of smaller scale processes, such as submesoscale currents and the internal wave field, in particular the baroclinic tide. Limits of available computing power determine the size of the computational grid, setting the [...]
Rethinking Hydroclimatic Extremes: Occurrence of abrupt Drought-to-Heavy-Precipitation transition events
Published: 2026-03-10
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Drought-to-heavy-precipitation abrupt transitions (sometimes called dry-to-wet extremes, whiplash events, or drought–flood transitions) are an emerging research focus. These are rapid shifts from a period of sustained drought (rainfall deficits, soil moisture stress, low streamflow) to intense precipitation or flooding over short timescales. Also described as climate whiplash events, they reflect [...]
A Multi-year Analysis of Supraglacial Lake Seasonal Dynamics in the Karakoram
Published: 2026-03-10
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Supraglacial lakes are a key feature of many debris-covered glaciers in the Karakoram region. These lakes are highly dynamic, often forming and draining rapidly on seasonal timescales. However, due to their small size and transient nature, they are largely absent from regional and global glacial lake inventories. In this study, we used Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to examine [...]
Bridging ERA5 Reanalysis Data and Regulatory Air Dispersion Modelling: A Transparent Workflow Implemented through the WindRose Toolkit
Published: 2026-03-07
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Regulatory atmospheric dispersion models such as AERMOD and CALPUFF are widely adopted for Environmental Impact Assessments involving atmospheric emissions. Despite their scientific maturity and regulatory acceptance, the practical application of these modelling systems outside the North American context is often constrained by the limited availability of suitable meteorological datasets. In many [...]
Arctic summer cloud optical properties and annual sea-ice retreat
Published: 2026-03-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Changes in Arctic sea-ice areal coverage have major ecological, climate, and economic implications and are driven by diverse natural and anthropogenic forcings acting over a wide range of time scales. Cloud-related variability in atmospheric radiative budgets is suspected to be particularly important in year-to-year changes in ice melt. Here, we describe a decade of pan-Arctic satellite light [...]
Time-dependent forecast of large earthquakes from physics-informed probabilistic approach
Published: 2026-03-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The elastic energy that fuels large earthquakes accumulates heterogeneously along faults, resulting in complex earthquake occurrence patterns. Although earthquake cycle simulations help capture such complexity in seismic hazard models, their high computational cost prevents widespread use and uncertainty quantification. Here, we propose a physics-based probabilistic method to forecast the timing [...]
Characterization of the Kinematics of the Cordillera Blanca Normal Fault from InSAR
Published: 2026-03-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure
The Cordillera Blanca Normal fault (CBNF), located along the western margin of the Cordillera Blanca batholith in northern Peru, is a major extensional structure of the central Andes. Geological and geomorphological evidence indicates sustained slip over the past ~4 Ma, yet its present-day kinematics have not been quantified geodetically. Here, we use Sentinel-1 InSAR (Interferometric [...]
Assessing the medium-term risk to reef damage and rubble generation for the Great Barrier Reef
Published: 2026-03-06
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Life Sciences, Marine Biology, Natural Resources and Conservation, Oceanography, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Coral reef systems live in multi-hazard environments and are exposed to a wide range of disturbance events that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. We identify seven drivers derived from hazards that have and can result in reef damage in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR): waves, winds, bottom current velocity, coral bleaching, crown-of-thorns seastar outbreaks, ship groundings, and [...]
An analysis of landslides in Great Britain using soil texture, rainfall, and topography reveals contrasting failure conditions between organic and mineral soils
Published: 2026-03-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Soil Science
Rainfall-induced landslides cause millions of pounds in damage to infrastructure in Great Britain (GB) annually and occasionally result in human fatalities. However, there are limited guidelines or policies aimed at reducing landslide risk in GB and few studies have broadly characterized landslide incidence across the region. Furthermore, peat landslides, which are a phenomenon that occur almost [...]
Connectivity between primary and secondary subglacial drainage systems beneath a land-terminating outlet glacier of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Published: 2026-03-05
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The evolution and connectivity of subglacial drainage systems controls basal sliding and therefore modulates ice flow, yet direct observations of these systems remain limited. Here, we investigate hydraulic connectivity and its influence on ice motion at Isunnguata Sermia - a large land-terminating outlet glacier of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We use ‘Cryoegg’ wireless sensors to obtain moulin [...]
Deep-learning climate emulator ACE2 reveals a global decrease in tropical cyclone 5 frequency in the 15th Century under an El Niño-like sea surface temperature pattern
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The relatively short modern observational record limits our understanding of the relationship between global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and sea surface temperature (SST), resulting in uncertain future TC projections. Using novel deep-learning-based past-millennium simulations with the Ai2 Climate Emulator version 2 (ACE2), we provide insight into the connections between SSTs and TCs. ACE2 [...]
On the seasonal predictability of the 2020 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The 2020 Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) season was exceptionally active, producing over twenty named storms, yet several seasonal forecasts failed to predict such extreme activity across their ensemble spread. Even when forced with the observed 2020 sea surface temperatures (SSTs), physics-based models simulated only a moderately active season across their ensemble members. Using observations and [...]
Cube2sph-GPU: A GPU accelerated toolkit enabling flexible continental-scale regional and teleseismic full waveform inversion
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We present Cube2sph-GPU, a GPU-accelerated framework for continental-scale regional and teleseismic full-waveform inversion (FWI). Building upon the capabilities of SPECFEM3D_Cartesian, the toolkit introduces: (1) a flexible hybrid simulation scheme for tele-seismic simulations; (2) curvilinear C-PML; (3) spherical PDE-based kernel smoothing; and (4) highly optimized GPU kernels and I/O [...]
Accounting for uncertainty from internal variability in global-temperature based attribution of climate extremes with single realisations
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Attribution of regional climate change to anthropogenic forcing within the single realisation available from observations is an important but challenging goal for statistical methods in climate science. Correlating regional conditions with global temperatures is a popular approach, especially for attributing downstream impacts on human health or the economy. However, the influence of internal [...]