Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Forecasting Lives Lost to Climate Change
Published: 2026-05-27
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This review synthesises empirical evidence linking global mean surface temperature to climate mortality through undernourishment, heat, extreme events, conflict, and disease, and introduces an exploratory precautionary metric: cumulative climate-related deaths per cumulative megatonne of greenhouse gas emissions (CO₂-e), intended to support policy evaluation under deep uncertainty. Using observed [...]
Hydroelectric Regulation Decouples Arctic Silica Delivery from the Diatom Bloom: A Climate-Independent Causal Attribution Across Twenty Subarctic Rivers
Published: 2026-05-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Oceanography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Large subarctic rivers deliver most of their dissolved nutrients during the spring freshet, in approximate phase with the ice-edge diatom bloom that those nutrients support. Hydroelectric regulation flattens the river hydrograph, holding back the freshet and raising winter discharge, and in doing so it redistributes nutrient delivery in time. Across twenty subarctic rivers spanning the Arctic [...]
Emerging links between Greenland ice melt, Euro-Mediterranean heat extremes, and destructive convective storms
Published: 2026-05-23
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Greenland ice loss is accelerating, but its consequences beyond sea-level rise remain poorly understood. At the same time, the Euro-Mediterranean region is facing unprecedented summer climate extremes where the underlying mechanisms have been long debated. Here we present the first evidence of a far-reaching cascading mechanism by which Greenland ice sheet melting acts as a major forcing of [...]
Dendritically-Drained Peat Plateaus: A Distinctive Thaw-Sensitive Organic-Rich Permafrost Landsystem in Northwestern Canada
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Peatlands in northwestern Canada comprise one of the most thaw-sensitive and carbon-rich permafrost landscapes of North America, and undergo rapid thaw due to surface disturbance and climate change. Dendritically-drained peat plateaus (DPPs) are a distinctive permafrost landform assemblage characterized by branching networks of channelized fens and bogs dissecting raised peat plateaus with [...]
Deep learning identification of SST teleconnections driving early-winter North Atlantic climate
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seasonal predictability over the North Atlantic-European (NAE) sector is strongly modulated by the background climate state, particularly in early winter. In this season, different ENSO teleconnections have been reported before and after the 1990s. However, these studies rely on linear analysis, and the reasons for this lack of stationarity and its implications for seasonal forecasting have not [...]
Persistent Future North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Risk in Two Contrasting CMIP6 Scenarios
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We analyze North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity using the Columbia HAZard (CHAZ) model to downscale 12 models from CMIP6 under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios --- those with the least and greatest anthropogenic forcing respectively. TC frequency increases along the Southeastern U.S. and declines along the Gulf under both SSPs. Greater TC frequency is not projected in the [...]
Climate Change Perceptions and Policy Priorities in Pakistan: A Community Survey Analysis and Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Perspective
Published: 2026-05-21
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Climate change constitutes a compound existential risk for Pakistan — a nation responsible for less than one percent of global greenhouse-gas emissions yet consistently ranked among the ten most climate-vulnerable states on earth (Germanwatch, 2021). Escalating heatwaves, intensifying monsoon floods, accelerating glacial retreat, chronic smog, and advancing desertification are not future [...]
Stratigraphy as a low-pass filter: selective preservation of spatial variability on a Holocene carbonate platform
Published: 2026-05-21
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Walther’s law, a fundamental principle in geoscience, predicts that laterally adjacent depositional environments become preserved as a vertical succession of layers (facies). As an expression of uniformitarianism, this law underpins interpretations of Earth’s history, yet it has not been quantitatively tested. We test this law and examine its limitations by quantifying multidecadal changes in [...]
Legacy brewery phosphorus as a management constraint in the Mashapaug Watershed: unresolved reservoirs and pathways in an urban pond cascade
Published: 2026-05-21
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Spectacle and Mashapaug Ponds have been listed as impaired waters in Rhode Island since 2002, with 20 public-health advisories issued since 2011. Phosphorus is treated as the primary limiting nutrient for harmful algal blooms in the watershed, and Spectacle Pond is the largest direct phosphorus source to Mashapaug Pond and the lower pond cascade. In February 2026, the Rhode Island Department of [...]
Seasonality and Trends in Coastal Water Temperatures from NOAA Water Level Monitoring Stations along US Coasts
Published: 2026-05-21
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Coastal regions are complex environments. They lie at the confluence of physical oceanic, atmospheric, and land-based processes, and continue to undergo significant change due to both natural and human-driven factors. Although it is well known that ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have increased over the past several decades, extending these trends and patterns to coastal waters is [...]
Integrating machine learning with a process-based model for estimating global wetland methane emissions
Published: 2026-05-21
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Methane emissions from natural wetlands are a major contributor to the changing global climate. However, estimates of such emissions are uncertain and depend on the modeling approach used. Process-based modeling of wetland emissions incorporates scientific knowledge of the underlying biogeochemical process, but prediction accuracy is insufficient. Machine learning models have the potential to [...]
Lumped Thermal Impedance Modeling of Anthropogenic Global Warming of the Troposphere
Published: 2026-05-19
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Anthropogenic global warming has reached a level so high that it is now possible to an- alyze its dynamics and spatial variation. Spatially varying Surface Air Temperature (SAT) anomalies [1] can be well described by exponential functions with increase rates that range from 2.1 to 3.7% per year, depending on the region. The Northern Hemisphere has warmed significantly more than the Southern [...]
Learning Seismic Wavefield Structure from Regional Arrays with Self-Supervised Deep Learning
Published: 2026-05-19
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seismic wavefields recorded across regional arrays exhibit spatial structure governed by propagation physics, including phase alignment, apparent slowness, and source directionality. These properties underpin array processing, yet in sparsely sampled arrays the wavefield is only partially observed, making it difficult to determine how information is distributed across sensors. Particularly, it [...]
Transformation of climatologically anomalous water masses
Published: 2026-05-16
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Wederiveanovelanomalous water mass budget framework in which water masses are defined by bounds on tracer anomalies rather than absolute tracer values, extending Water Mass Transformation (WMT) theory to ocean variability and extremes. The material derivative of tracer anomalies introduces three additional transformation terms absent from the standard WMT framework: advection of climatological [...]
From clay raw materials to ceramics: mineralogical and geochemical markers for assessing refinement technologies and provenance in north-western Tuscany (Italy)
Published: 2026-05-16
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Understanding the provenance and selection of ceramic raw materials is essential for reconstructing past technological practices and production networks. Twenty-four clay outcrops from geological formations and deposits located near documented production sites in north-western Tuscany (Italy) were sampled, refined into experimental briquettes, and fired. The samples were characterised using a [...]