Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Lumped Thermal Impedance Modeling of Anthropogenic Global Warming of the Troposphere
Published: 2026-05-18
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Anthropogenic global warming has reached a level so high that it is now possible to an- alyze its dynamics and spatial variation. Spatially varying Surface Air Temperature (SAT) anomalies [1] can be well described by exponential functions with increase rates that range from 2.1 to 3.7% per year, depending on the region. The Northern Hemisphere has warmed significantly more than the Southern [...]
Learning Seismic Wavefield Structure from Regional Arrays with Self-Supervised Deep Learning
Published: 2026-05-18
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seismic wavefields recorded across regional arrays exhibit spatial structure governed by propagation physics, including phase alignment, apparent slowness, and source directionality. These properties underpin array processing, yet in sparsely sampled arrays the wavefield is only partially observed, making it difficult to determine how information is distributed across sensors. Particularly, it [...]
Transformation of climatologically anomalous water masses
Published: 2026-05-15
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Wederiveanovelanomalous water mass budget framework in which water masses are defined by bounds on tracer anomalies rather than absolute tracer values, extending Water Mass Transformation (WMT) theory to ocean variability and extremes. The material derivative of tracer anomalies introduces three additional transformation terms absent from the standard WMT framework: advection of climatological [...]
From clay raw materials to ceramics: mineralogical and geochemical markers for assessing refinement technologies and provenance in north-western Tuscany (Italy)
Published: 2026-05-15
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Understanding the provenance and selection of ceramic raw materials is essential for reconstructing past technological practices and production networks. Twenty-four clay outcrops from geological formations and deposits located near documented production sites in north-western Tuscany (Italy) were sampled, refined into experimental briquettes, and fired. The samples were characterised using a [...]
Kaolin as a potential lithium source: a preliminary study of the Torniella ceramic raw material deposit (southern Tuscany)
Published: 2026-05-15
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Torniella ceramic raw material deposit (southern Tuscany) is hosted within highly altered rhyolites of the Tertiary Tuscan magmatic province. Locally, kaolinite-rich veins occur, consisting of more 80% kaolinite, with minor quartz and traces of svanbergite, SrAl3(PO4)(SO4)(OH)6. The bulk vein material shows interesting lithium (Li) contents, ranging from 1600 to 3700 mg/kg, with local [...]
ENSO-conditioned evolution of global mean surface temperature
Published: 2026-05-12
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Here we examined how the June--May trajectory of global mean surface temperature (GMST) can be anticipated from recent GMST evolution and upcoming boreal winter Ni\~no-3.4 values. Principal component analysis and dimension reduction of the data led to a simple, interpretable model in which the June--May monthly GMST trajectory is conditioned on two quantities: the average GMST of the prior 12 [...]
Episodic slowdown of global warming by a multi-year La Niña
Published: 2026-05-12
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Global mean surface temperature (GMST), which has continued to rise due to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, is closely related to the sea surface temperature variability in the tropical Pacific. In particular, GMST is known to increase during a strong and short-lived El Niño. By contrast, the global cooling effect of a weak and long-lived La Niña remains underexplored, particularly that [...]
Can Hyperscale Data Centers Alter Local Meteorology in the Kathmandu Valley? A Simulation-Based Assessment
Published: 2026-05-11
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
There is growing interest in Nepal in hosting large data centers inside the Kathmandu Valley, but how the valley’s atmosphere would respond to substantial additional heat emissions remains uncertain. The Kathmandu Valley is a closed bowl-shaped basin surrounded by mountains, with persistent nocturnal cold pools and weak boundary-layer winds that limit the dispersal of pollutants and heat from the [...]
An analogue-conditioned multi-satellite framework for daily precipitation reconstruction
Published: 2026-05-10
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Precipitation is a key component of the Earth system, yet remains difficult to reconstruct accurately due to its stochastic nature, physical drivers, and sparse observational coverage. Existing gridded datasets rely on trade-offs between station-based observations, satellite retrievals, and multi-source blending, often introducing inconsistencies and temporal limitations. Here, we present an [...]
TiMEpy: A Python Package for Analyzing Tidal Modulation of Fast and Slow Earthquakes
Published: 2026-05-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Due to interactions between the solid Earth and tidal forces, the crust experiences continuous stress perturbations. Understanding how earthquakes respond to tidal stresses provides unique insights into the mechanisms governing earthquake nucleation. Here, we present TiMEpy, an open-source Python package designed to detect tidal modulation in both fast and slow earthquakes. TiMEpy includes [...]
Adaptive Model Parameter Estimation Triggered by the Beneficial Observation Rate from Forecast Sensitivity to Observations
Published: 2026-05-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In NWP, the assimilation of various observations contributes to improving forecast accuracy. The contribution of each observation can be estimated by existing methods. Empirically, it is well known that only a fraction of assimilated observations are diagnosed as beneficial, meaning that they improve forecast accuracy. Previous studies have indicated that the beneficial observation rate depends [...]
Extreme Heat and Rainfall Risk Attributed to Cumulative CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Producers
Published: 2026-05-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Legal and political approaches to climate accountability require demonstrating that a particular emitter contributed to a climate impact, but quantitative solutions to this attribution challenge remain nascent. This study leverages the proportionality of global warming to cumulative CO2 emissions to develop statistical models that directly predict extreme climate risk from cumulative emissions. [...]
Polar ice-cores unravel the formation of a UV window during magnetic field collapse ~ 42 ka BP
Published: 2026-05-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
During geomagnetic excursions (GEs), compromised magnetic field and increased cosmic-ray bombardment can deplete the ozone layer forming ‘UV window(s)’ in the Earth’s atmosphere. Here, using triple sulfur-isotope systematics in polar ice-core sulfate record spanning 600 years of the Laschamp GE, we provide direct evidence of the formation of a UV window. Several events of UV-induced anomalous [...]
Antimicrobial Resistance – A Growing Global Groundwater Challenge
Published: 2026-05-08
Subjects: Education, Engineering, Life Sciences, Medicine and Health Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Antimicrobials are composed of medications such as antibiotics and antivirals which are widely used to ensure human and animal health. However, inappropriate use of antimicrobials is a major driver of antimicrobial resistance. AMR arises from complex interactions between humans, animals, microbial organisms, medicines, wildlife and the environment. Once in the wastewater stream, antibiotics are [...]
Diagnosing subseasonal and seasonal drivers of European and North African winter extremes using information theory
Published: 2026-05-08
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Diagnosing subseasonal and seasonal drivers of European and North African winter extremes using information theory