Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Novel pseudo-logistic spatial regression for the assessment of local/zonal susceptibility to landslides – case study in Central Vietnam (Bình Định Province)
Published: 2026-07-11
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Abstract. The exploratory geographic modeling process aims to formalize spatial relationships through the combination of metrics or variables that explain spatial phenomena and integrate spatial dimensions. This study adopts a similari-ty-based induction process, evaluating multidimensional distances using derived variables or exploratory geographic modeling metrics. The methodology integrates [...]
Validation of Baer-Babinet's Law using modern Landsat retrievals
Published: 2026-07-11
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In this study, I use a modern river erosion dataset created by Langhorst and Pavelsky (LP) in 2023 (LP 2023) to validate the long-standing contention behind Baer-Babinet's Law (BBL). This law postulates that rivers preferentially erode the right bank of rivers in the Northern Hemisphere and the left bank in the Southern Hemisphere, as a result of the Coriolis Force. Albert Einstein also [...]
Problems of Global Ocean Averages and Integrals
Published: 2026-07-10
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The ocean circulation exhibits a great regional variation in the temporal behavior of physical parameters such as temperature or salt or carbon. Some of the variety is very familiar, e.g. equatorial versus mid-latitude, but in addition much heterogeneity appears within those very large-scale geographical regions. Questions arise in computing and understanding the meaning of such quantities as the [...]
A Multiscale Geometric PDE Framework Coupling Macroscopic Curvature and Microscopic Grain Boundary Motion: An Application to Snow Deformation and Sintering
Published: 2026-07-09
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The motion of grain boundaries in polycrystalline materials and porous media has conventionally been modeled by local geometric evolution equations, such as Mean Curvature Flow (MCF). However, existing models primarily depend on local interfacial geometry and generally do not account for the influence of macroscopic curvature fields induced by the deformation of the bulk continuum. In this study, [...]
Decomposing drivers of global temperature change after net zero
Published: 2026-07-09
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Net-zero CO2 (NZCO2) and greenhouse gas emission (GHG) targets are central to the development of mitigation scenarios. Global surface air temperature (GSAT) change after NZCO2 depends on several factors that broadly fall into two categories: scenario-specific factors that account for the diversity of possible mitigation pathways to net zero and beyond, and model-specific factors that describe the [...]
Toxic Ultrafine to Nanoparticulate Materials in Wildfire Smoke
Published: 2026-07-08
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Wildfire smoke contains metal-laden ultrafine particles (less than 0.25 µm) systematically overlooked in air quality monitoring, representing a hidden hazard. We show that these ultrafine particles dominate smoke composition, accounting for >60% of particle mass and carrying toxic metals including chromium, nickel, and titanium at sizes down to 5 nm, small enough to penetrate lung barriers and [...]
Wind farms occupy fire-prone terrain but show no evidence of targeting burnt land: a multi-scale, time-ordered analysis for Greece
Published: 2026-07-08
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
A recurring claim in Greek public discourse holds that wildfires are set to clear land for windfarms, so that turbines end up on previously burnt ground. We test this claim with a designbuilt to avoid the base-rate fallacy of simple overlap statistics, comparing the operationalGreek wind fleet against wind-viable land with a use-availability case-control model and atime-ordered survival model, on [...]
Stable estimates of when global temperature thresholds will be crossed: least-squares fits as the end date of the fitted span is reduced
Published: 2026-07-08
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Reliable estimates of when global mean temperature will exceed the Paris Agreement's 2°C threshold1 are generally derived from emissions scenarios and climate models rather than from the observed temperature record itself. This study investigates whether the observed warming trajectory alone can provide a stable empirical estimate of the crossing date. Least-squares exponential, quadratic and [...]
Flood Risk Management Strategies for Bridgeport, Connecticut: AComparative Analysis of Infrastructure Hardening and Managed Retreat
Published: 2026-07-08
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study analyzes sea-level rise management options for Bridgeport, Connecticut, comparing infrastructurehardening and managed retreat using a mixed-methods approach that integrates geospatial analysis, policy analysis,and vulnerability assessment. Sea-level rise projections under NOAA scenarios range from 3.3 ft (low emission) to15.1 ft (extreme) by 2100, with the South End and East End [...]
CSUFlow25: Colorado Streamflow Ungaged Prediction Models
Published: 2026-07-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
CSUFlow25 is an updated set of statistical models for predicting streamflow in ungaged basins in Colorado, USA. It builds on the earlier CSUFlow18 models (Eurich et al., 2021) by extending the streamflow record from water years 2001–2018 to 2001–2024, expanding the pool of candidate predictor variables, and increasing the number of streamflow metrics predicted. Models were developed from a [...]
Surface, not exhaust: a multi-sensor satellite test bounds the local thermal footprint of hyperscale data centres
Published: 2026-07-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Whether hyperscale data centres (DCs) warm their surroundings has become a live policy question with directly conflicting answers: a coarse-resolution satellite preprint attributes ~2 °C of land-surface warming to facilities worldwide (Marinoni et al 2026), while peer-reviewed mobile transects near Phoenix measure +0.7-0.9 °C of near-ground air warming within a few hundred metres downwind (Sailor [...]
Leakage-audited machine learning versus ETAS for earthquake forecasting in the Sea of Marmara
Published: 2026-07-06
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Sea of Marmara hosts a seismic gap directly beneath a metropolitan region of some 18 million people, and the 23 April 2025 Mw 6.2 Kumburgaz earthquake renewed attention on whether short-term forecasting can add value there. We report a leakage-audited forecasting experiment built on a strictly causal, homogenized KOERI catalogue (31,329 model-box events, 2003–2026). Motivated by the finding [...]
When does array moveout help borehole phase picking? A leave-one-site-out, confound-free benchmark of array versus per-trace deep learning
Published: 2026-07-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Deep-learning phase pickers are increasingly deployed on borehole microseismic arrays, yet two questions central to operational monitoring remain poorly quantified: how well such models generalize to a site they were not trained on, and whether the cross-station moveout that an array provides actually improves that generalization. We give the first confound-free answer using the AMBER benchmark [...]
Transformer-based Reconstruction of Canopy Profiles from Large-Footprint Waveform LiDAR
Published: 2026-07-03
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Spaceborne laser scanning (SLS) presents a cost-effective means for frequent, global-scale monitoring of forest ecosystem parameters. Compared to airborne laser scanning (ALS), SLS offers substantially greater spatial coverage and revisit frequency, but at the cost of larger footprints, sparser sampling, and attenuated return signals. These constraints typically result in a loss of fine-scale [...]
Capturing Time-Resolved Prescribed Fire Emissions with TEMPO Special Observations
Published: 2026-07-02
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Prescribed fires are widely used for land management in the United States, but their emissions remain difficult to quantify due to their small spatial extent and short duration. We present here the first demonstration that high-resolution "special observations" from the TEMPO geostationary instrument resolve sub-hourly nitrogen dioxide NO2 column enhancements from individual prescribed fires in [...]