Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Multi-Sensor Monitoring of Wetland Inundation Using a Machine Learning and Data Fusion Framework
Published: 2026-04-03
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Continuous, high-resolution inundation data are needed to understand how small-scale, short-term wetland flooding influences global methane emissions and carbon cycling. Small (less than 1,000 m²), variably inundated wetlands are significant methane sources, yet coarse satellite products often miss their dynamics. Integrating optical and radar imagery with resolutions less than 30 m offers a [...]
The Anthropocene as a Multi-Level Stability Landscape Regimes, Transitions, and Reorganization of the Human–Earth System
Published: 2026-04-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Understanding the evolution of the human–Earth system over decadal-to-centennial timescales remains a central challenge in Earth system science. The Anthropocene is commonly described using trajectories, tipping elements, and scenario pathways, which capture non-linear dynamics but do not provide a unified representation of regime structure and transitions at planetary scale. Here we introduce a [...]
Dilution drives deep degassing of sulfur in hydrous magmas
Published: 2026-04-02
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Sulfur (S) is thought to degas deep from hydrous magmas (e.g., arc basalts), in contrast to water-poor magmas where S degasses at very shallow depths (e.g., Kīlauea, mid-ocean ridge basalts). Our modelling of degassing shows this occurs for magmas that are both reduced (i.e., S is present predominantly as H2S in the vapor and dissolved sulfide in the melt) and oxidised (i.e., SO2 in the vapor and [...]
Nickel Isotope Systematics in the Talvivaara Paleoproterozoic Black Shale Deposit Reveal Mineralogy-Controlled Fractionation with a Preserved Biogenic Signal
Published: 2026-04-01
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Nickel isotope systematics in sediment-hosted sulfide deposits are now more commonly used to infer redox and diagenetic processes, yet their potential to record biological signals and their preservation through diagenesis and metamorphism remains poorly constrained. Here we present micro-scale coupled δ60Ni, δ34S, δ13C, REE pattern, and paleoproductivity proxy data from the Paleoproterozoic [...]
Persistent Multi-Scale Consistency in Best-Track Intensity Evolution and Rapid Intensification in Atlantic Tropical Cyclones (1851–2024)
Published: 2026-04-01
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Rapid intensification (RI), commonly defined as an increase in maximum sustained wind speed of at least 30 kt within 24 h, remains one of the most challenging aspects of tropical cyclone forecasting. This study evaluates whether persistent multi-scale consistency in best-track intensity evolution is statistically associated with RI occurrence across the full Atlantic historical record. A [...]
Bayesian Calibration of dynamic models of earthquake sequences using observations from past large earthquakes
Published: 2026-04-01
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Physics-based models of the earthquake cycle could be used for time-dependent hazard assessment. For such an application, their parameters must be calibrated so that simulated earthquake sequences reproduce the statistics of past earthquakes, including recurrence statistics and magnitudes. This is challenging because the dynamics are described by nonlinear partial differential equations, initial [...]
A Global Catalogue of Lunar Topographic Prominence ≥ 1 km
Published: 2026-04-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Geomorphology, Planetary Sciences
We present the Lunar Ribus Database, a global catalogue of lunar summits with topographic prominence ≥1 km derived from the highest-resolution global and regional digital elevation models currently available. Each summit in the catalogue is reported with summit and key col elevations relative to the global minimum, prominence, key col elevation, and geographic coordinates of both summit and key [...]
Mercury
Published: 2026-04-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Data from the Mercury Surface, Space Environment, Geochemistry and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft, the Mariner 10 spacecraft, and decades of ground-based observations have revealed a wealth of information about the geochemistry of Mercury, the inner most planet in our Solar system. These data indicate that Mercury is an endmember among the terrestrial planets with a core mass fraction of ~71–78% [...]
MonteCarlo Biphasic Estimation of Fire Properties (McBEF): Part II, Night-time VIIRS Implementation
Published: 2026-03-29
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
This study presents the application and global evaluation of the Monte Carlo Biphasic Estimation of Fire Properties (McBEF) algorithm using nighttime observations from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). McBEF extends traditional fire retrieval techniques by partitioning sub-pixel combustion into flaming and smoldering phases, enabling the estimation of phase-specific [...]
MonteCarlo Biphasic Estimation of Fire Properties (McBEF): Part I, Algorithm formulation
Published: 2026-03-29
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Sub-pixel fire characterization is essential for quantifying wildfire energetics, combustion phase dynamics, and their atmospheric impacts from satellite observations. This study presents a series of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) to systematically evaluate the influence of temperature phase complexity, channel selection, and intra-phase temperature heterogeneity on the [...]
A snag for nutrient fertilization: decoupled production and export
Published: 2026-03-28
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Sciences, Life Sciences, Marine Biology, Microbiology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Interest in nutrient fertilization waned after inconclusive field experiments, but has resurged. Collating Southern Ocean \textit{in-situ} observations and available fertilization simulations, we find phytoplankton primary production and organic carbon export are uncorrelated in the largest high-nutrient-low-chlorophyll (HNLC) region, while model estimates cast doubt on realistic deployments [...]
The Oceanic Response to Winds in the Antarctic Sea Ice Loss at the end of the 1970s
Published: 2026-03-28
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The sea ice extent (SIE) in the Southern Ocean experienced a substantial decline in the late 1970s, although less pronounced than the one observed in 2016. Though several studies explain the decline since 2016, the 1970s drop is critical in understanding the long-term variability of SIE. To investigate the underlying mechanisms for this decline, we conducted wind stress-forced multi- ensemble [...]
mineralML: Leveraging Machine Learning for Probabilistic Mineral Classification
Published: 2026-03-27
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Probability, Statistical Methodology, Statistics and Probability, Volcanology
Characterizing phase assemblages in igneous rocks and the chemical variability within these phases is the fundamental basis of many petrological investigations. We present mineralML (mineral classification using Machine Learning), an open-source Python package that classifies common igneous minerals based on oxide chemical data, with prediction scores. mineralML employs a two-stage neural [...]
Nearly three decades of laser altimetry reveal strong regional contrasts and glacier-driven ice losses in Greenland
Published: 2026-03-27
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Greenland Ice Sheet, a major contributor to sea-level rise, loses mass through complex processes that are not fully understood. Laser altimetry provides direct and accurate measurements of ice sheet surface elevation. Here, we present the first continuous, laser altimetry-based annual reconstruction of Greenland Ice Sheet mass change from 1994 to 2020 at 1 km horizontal resolution. Our novel [...]
Spectral seismic interferometry: Efficient monitoring of unbiased seismic velocity changes at high temporal resolution
Published: 2026-03-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Ambient noise based monitoring of subsurface velocity changes does not require the explicit retrieval of Green's functions by correlation. Velocity variations can directly be observed from the fluctuations in the spectrograms of ambient noise time series or their cross-spectra. This approach is more resource efficient than the conventional Green's function based monitoring and ideally suited for [...]