Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
A Report on Assumptions and Uncertainties in Modeling Nuclear Winter
Published: 2026-04-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Nuclear winter is arguably the biggest consequence of a nuclear war that the field seeks to prevent; experts study nuclear winter to prevent civilizational collapse and widespread catastrophe. A nuclear winter would be, for lack of better words, really bad. As long as the risk of nuclear war exists, so too will the catastrophic risk of a nuclear winter. Much of the modeling and research that [...]
Overshoot pathways of 1.5°C: reversible biophysical change, irreversible socioeconomic impacts
Published: 2026-04-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Exceedance of 1.5°C in the near term is now unavoidable. Among pathways consistent with the remaining carbon budget, an overshoot pathway, in which exceedance is followed by decline to or below 1.5°C through net-negative emissions, is the best case of what remains achievable. Permanent exceedance produces strictly worse outcomes, yet even an overshoot pathway leaves lasting legacies. We propose a [...]
Spatial Assessment of Soil Erosion Risk Using RUSLE and GIS in Upland Agricultural Barangays of Candelaria, Quezon, Philippines
Published: 2026-04-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study integrated Geographic Information System (GIS) and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model, A= R • K • LS • C • P, to assess soil loss and propose soil conservation strategies in Candelaria, Quezon, Philippines, addressing increasing erosion evidenced by collapsing hillsides, sedimentation, and soil displacement from construction. The RUSLE model, with adjustments in the [...]
Evaluation of H2O-CO2 solubility models in silicate melts: Precision and accuracy of vapor saturation pressure and composition
Published: 2026-04-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Solubility models for H2O and CO2 in silicate melt are crucial in igneous petrology and volcanology, in particular for calculating the pressure of vapor saturation of melts from their dissolved volatile content as a barometer, as well as melt and vapor compositions and proportions during degassing. We assessed the accuracy and precision of the calculated pressure of vapor saturation and [...]
Microphysical Evolution of Precipitation During Convective Storm Life-Cycles and Implications for Radar QPE: Combined Radar–Disdrometer Observations from Kolkata, Eastern India
Published: 2026-04-25
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Through dedicated observations with a Joss–Waldvogel disdrometer at Dumdum (22.65°N, 88.43°E) and the S-band Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) (22.57°N, 88.35°E) over Kolkata, this study provides in-depth analysis of drop size distribution (DSD) evolution over each stage from initiation to decay of contrasting convective storms over Kolkata, eastern India due to its complicated terrain in monsoon [...]
Statistics of curvature in the submesoscale surface ocean
Published: 2026-04-24
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Ocean submesoscale (1--10\,km) variability is hypothesised to contribute substantially to upper-ocean vertical exchange and heat fluxes, but the three-dimensional turbulent nature of the variability makes it difficult to interpret submesoscale variability dynamically. Statistics of velocity gradients are often analyzed to characterize the nature of submesoscale dynamics. Previous analyses show [...]
Continuous Water Surface Elevation Estimates Using Deep Learning with Legacy Altimetry and Surface Water and Ocean Topography Data
Published: 2026-04-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
We present the development of a high-temporal-resolution global dataset of daily river water surface elevation (WSE), spanning January 2008 through May 2025. By utilizing a deep learning framework to integrate legacy satellite altimetry and the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission data, we produced a continuous record covering 9,184 river reaches, 5,926 rivers, and 1,342 basins. The [...]
Airborne imaging spectrometer measurements of methane releases under turbulent conditions
Published: 2026-04-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics
Methane plume detection and quantification from airborne and spaceborne platforms offers a promising approach for monitoring localized greenhouse gas emissions. Its performance must be demonstrated under realistic but controlled conditions. An airborne demonstrator of a compact shortwave infrared imaging spectrometer developed for the AIRMO Earth observation mission was therefore evaluated during [...]
The biodiversity paradox: declining conservation discourse amid ecological crisis in global urban policies
Published: 2026-04-24
Subjects: Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Despite escalating biodiversity crises, conservation discourse in urban environmental policies has declined, revealing a governance paradox in which ecological urgency is inversely correlated with policy representation. We analyzed 202 urban environmental policies from 85 countries spanning 1984-2025 using computational text analysis (LDA, NMF, hierarchical clustering). The results reveal an [...]
From sectoral silos to climate hegemony: analysis of global urban policies (1984-2025)
Published: 2026-04-23
Subjects: Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Contemporary urban environmental governance faces a paradox: while international frameworks advocate integration, climate discourse appears to subsume. This study analyzed 202 urban policies from 85 countries (1984-2025) using various methods, temporal discourse analysis, keyword co-occurrence networks, framing detection, and sentiment analysis. Policies accelerated exponentially, with 2010-2025 [...]
A proposal for a horizontal vector approach in 3D electrical resistivity tomography and its associated geometric factor
Published: 2026-04-22
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is commonly implemented with collinear electrode arrays that measure only electric-field components along the survey line, neglecting horizontal variations in other directions. While this limitation is acceptable in 2D ERT, it can be significant in 3D settings with complex geometry and strong resistivity contrasts. To address this issue, we propose an [...]
Erosion-driven changes in soil cation exchange capacity quantified using barium isotopes
Published: 2026-04-22
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Soil Science
Human activities have perturbed the balance between rates of soil erosion and formation, driving declines in soil quality. However, quantifying these soil imbalances remains challenging, especially at large scales. Here we present a novel isotope mass balance approach that can be used to quantify river catchment wide rates of change in cation exchange capacity (CEC), a key soil quality metric, in [...]
Mesozoic ocean plate stratigraphy reveals a Franciscan plate separating Farallon and North America
Published: 2026-04-22
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Ocean plate stratigraphy preserved in the Franciscan Complex recorded the Mesozoic plate tectonic evolution of the North American Cordillera and eastern Pacific basin. New and published ocean floor and accretion ages for Jurassic–Cretaceous oceanic crust, derived from detrital zircons and radiolarians, indicate that eastward younging ocean floor existed between the Farallon and North American [...]
First-principles theory for Earth's tropical-midlatitude climate boundary
Published: 2026-04-22
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In Earth's climate, the boundary between the tropics and midlatitudes is a key determinant of temperature and precipitation characteristics, influencing human societies through daily weather, atmospheric chemistry, carbon cycling, and vegetation distribution. The physical origin of these climate zones has been investigated through idealized simulations, observations, and state-of-the-art climate [...]
A hybrid physics–ML framework for integrating groundwater dynamics into land surface modeling
Published: 2026-04-22
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics