Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Learning-Based Methods and the Future of Numerical Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling
Published: 2026-04-11
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The field of operational oceanography is undergoing a significant evolution with the increasing integration of artificial intelligence (AI) methods, which are complementing and, in some cases, redefining traditional numerical modeling approaches. This review explores how AI methods—particularly model-based autoregressive emulators, hybrid modeling, and end-to-end model-free approaches—are [...]
Fractal Tomography and the Fisher Information Barrier of Seismicity: Addressing the Origin of Dual Paradoxes via Precision-Calibrated Bayesian Inference
Published: 2026-04-10
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Non-linear Dynamics, Other Statistics and Probability, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Methodology, Statistics and Probability, Tectonics and Structure
The spatial organization of seismicity presents dual multi-decade paradoxes: (1) earthquake catalogs exhibit quasi-planar correlation dimensions (D2 ≈ 2.0–2.6) despite volumetric lithospheric deformation (geometric projection paradox), and (2) Bayesian inference systematically yields D3 ≈ 3.0 contradicting structural geology (Bayesian saturation paradox). We address both through the Fractal [...]
Climate variability introduces uncertainty into future emissions pathways
Published: 2026-04-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Uncertainty in long-term climate outcomes arises not only from physical processes but also from societal responses to climate variability and change. Here we embed a range of temperature anomalies into an empirically-informed, coupled climate–social model to investigate how natural temperature variability shapes global emissions trajectories. Using Monte Carlo ensembles spanning social, [...]
Persistent Geochemical Zonation (“Striping”) within the Galápagos Mantle Plume
Published: 2026-04-10
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Some hotspot tracks, such as those formed by the Hawai’i and Galápagos mantle plumes, exhibit long-lived cross-track isotopic zonation, thought to reflect the streaking out of heterogeneous material in the plume conduit during upwelling. In lavas associated with the Galápagos mantle plume, three geochemical domains, present for at least 15 Myr, have been identified: northern, southern and [...]
HydroScholar AI: A Collaborative Agent for End-to-End Automated Hydrological Research Lifecycle
Published: 2026-04-09
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Hydrological research relies on multi-stage computational workflows that are often slow, fragmented across disparate tools, and inconsistently documented, limiting reproducibility. This study presents HydroScholar AI, an agentic, human-in-the-loop platform that consolidates the plan-to-paper research lifecycle into a single interactive automated framework. From a natural-language prompt, the [...]
Modeling PDC cutter-rock interactions using finite discrete element method for geothermal drilling applications
Published: 2026-04-09
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) cutters are used in geothermal energy drilling operations as they are exceptionally effective due to their strength and resistance to abrasion. It is important to understand the effect of downhole conditions to accurately model rock-cutter-rock interactions, as well as wear on the bit and drilling efficiency. Cutting efficiency is determined through the [...]
Automated Detection of Slow Slip Events from InSAR: Application to the North Anatolian Fault
Published: 2026-04-09
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure
The growing volume of InSAR time series offers new opportunities to systematically detect transient aseismic deformation, but identifying low-amplitude slow slip events (SSEs) remains challenging due to noise and limited temporal resolution. Here, we adapt the geodetic matched filter, originally developed for GNSS data, to InSAR displacement time series in the context of shallow strike-slip [...]
Simulation of Groundwater Flow To Evaluate Hydrogeologic Controls on a PFAS Plume, Coakley Landfill Superfund Site, Rockingham County, New Hampshire
Published: 2026-04-09
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), including perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS), have been detected at combined concentrations above 2,000 nanograms per liter (ng/L) at groundwater seep locations near the Coakley Landfill Superfund site, in North Hampton, New Hampshire. The landfill was active from 1972 to 1985. An impermeable cap was placed on the [...]
Geochemical and granulometric fingerprints of 8,200-year Westerly variability recorded in inner-fjord lake sediments from Central Svalbard
Published: 2026-04-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Arctic is warming faster than any other region on Earth. As sea-ice diminishes, surface boundary conditions (roughness and air-sea coupling) change and open-water fetch increases, potentially strengthening the effective wind forcing on Arctic coasts. These changes can be recorded in lake sediments through the deposition of wind-blown grains and elements, offering insights into past wind and [...]
Seasonal Shift in the Dominant Pathway Energizing Mesoscale Eddies in the California Current
Published: 2026-04-08
Subjects: Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Mesoscale eddies are the dominant reservoir of kinetic energy in the ocean, yet the mechanisms that generate and maintain them in eastern boundary current systems remain incompletely assessed. Here we use a 1-km resolution simulation of the California Current System (CCS) to diagnose and quantify the processes that supply kinetic energy to the mesoscale band. A pronounced seasonal transition is [...]
Longitudinal stress induced by basal slippery patch
Published: 2026-04-07
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Supraglacial lake drainages create spatially finite regions of reduced basal friction, slippery patches, at the ice-bed interface that perturb local stresses in the overlying ice, potentially sufficiently to trigger cascading hydrofracture-driven lake drainage events. We derive analytical solutions for the perturbed stress response to such slippery patches using the shallow shelf approximation [...]
Aerosol Removal and Solar Decline Drive Post-1980 Surface Warming Acceleration
Published: 2026-04-06
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Standard climate models do not fully reproduce post-1980 surface warming acceleration. Two forcing pathways explain the gap: Western clean air legislation progressively removed industrial sulphate aerosols from 1980 onward, unmasking suppressed greenhouse warming; and the Sun's magnetic output declined secularly after 1980, partially offsetting that unmasking. We quantify both using MERRA-2 [...]
Multi-Sensor Monitoring of Wetland Inundation Using a Machine Learning and Data Fusion Framework
Published: 2026-04-03
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Continuous, high-resolution inundation data are needed to understand how small-scale, short-term wetland flooding influences global methane emissions and carbon cycling. Small (less than 1,000 m²), variably inundated wetlands are significant methane sources, yet coarse satellite products often miss their dynamics. Integrating optical and radar imagery with resolutions less than 30 m offers a [...]
The Anthropocene as a Multi-Level Stability Landscape Regimes, Transitions, and Reorganization of the Human–Earth System
Published: 2026-04-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Understanding the evolution of the human–Earth system over decadal-to-centennial timescales remains a central challenge in Earth system science. The Anthropocene is commonly described using trajectories, tipping elements, and scenario pathways, which capture non-linear dynamics but do not provide a unified representation of regime structure and transitions at planetary scale. Here we introduce a [...]
Dilution drives deep degassing of sulfur in hydrous magmas
Published: 2026-04-02
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Sulfur (S) is thought to degas deep from hydrous magmas (e.g., arc basalts), in contrast to water-poor magmas where S degasses at very shallow depths (e.g., Kīlauea, mid-ocean ridge basalts). Our modelling of degassing shows this occurs for magmas that are both reduced (i.e., S is present predominantly as H2S in the vapor and dissolved sulfide in the melt) and oxidised (i.e., SO2 in the vapor and [...]