Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Drivers of The Daggers: Backstress-triggered fracture propagation on the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf, West Antarctica
Published: 2026-10-28
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The destabilization of ice shelves around Antarctica is not just a sea-level-rise priority, but an opportunity to observe and understand the mechanisms of ice-shelf failure. Recent studies show that ice shelves fail against their pinning points or ridges once sufficiently weakened by thinning and damage---a "backstress-triggered" failure mechanism that is not represented in ice-shelf collapse [...]
Surface signatures of surge dynamics over six decades at Tweedsmuir Glacier, Saint Elias Mountains, Canada
Published: 2026-10-27
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The dynamically driven advance and retreat of surge-type glaciers shapes surrounding ecosystems and landscapes differently from non-surging glaciers; however, the diversity in surge behaviour, even among neighbouring glaciers, makes them challenging to predict. Here, we reconstruct the six-decade surge history of Tweedsmuir Glacier in the Saint Elias Mountains, capturing two surge cycles. We use [...]
Erosion-induced momentum production and system acceleration govern landslide mobility
Published: 2026-10-26
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Geotechnical Engineering, Glaciology, Hydraulic Engineering, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Sedimentology, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Erosion can fundamentally alter landslide acceleration through the produced momentum. However, existing analytical landslide velocity models do not account for the energy dissipation associated with erosion-induced system acceleration. Here, I present a novel, complete dynamical velocity model for erosive landslides that incorporates two intrinsically coupled mechanically essential processes: [...]
Contour-crossing calculations quantify decadal changes in the pCO2 impacts of inorganic chemical weathering in the North American Arctic
Published: 2026-10-26
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Degradation of Arctic permafrost is altering biogeochemical dynamics by exposing previously frozen sediment to water, acids, and oxidants. While thaw-driven enhancement of carbonate and silicate mineral weathering results in drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2), acting as a negative feedback on modern climate change, enhancement of sulfide mineral oxidation increases pCO2 and acts as a [...]
Data-efficient prediction of rare earth leaching from industrial residues with physics-constrained machine learning
Published: 2026-10-25
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Geochemistry, Mining Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Coal ash, mine-water sludge, red mud and phosphogypsum contain rare earth elements, and each new feedstock needs its own leaching recipe. LixaLearn couples a small neural network to closed-form rate laws for four metal hosts (exchange sites, fast-dissolving minerals, slow-dissolving minerals and a locked fraction), with part of the fast host limited by the solubility of its mineral. The network [...]
The ocean’s gravity-driven carbon flux from serendipitous particle traps
Published: 2026-10-25
Subjects: Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Particles sinking into the ocean’s interior are a food source for deep-sea ecosystems and sequester carbon from the atmosphere. Yet, measurements of the sinking flux are sparse, leaving substantial uncertainties in its magnitude and variability. We demonstrate how a fleet of Argo floats has serendipitously measured the sinking flux for the last decade because particles settled onto the floats [...]
Incision Sets the Growth Rate of Delta Channel Networks
Published: 2026-10-24
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
River deltas support large human populations and diverse ecosystems, but many are increasingly threatened by relative sea-level rise and sediment deprivation. Delta growth is widely viewed as a depositional process driven by sediment accumulation. However, the distributary channels that deliver sediment across deltas often extend before major episodes of subaerial land growth. Recent field [...]
Integrating rapid 3D structural validation into interpretation: forward modelling of the Katnook Graben, Otway Basin
Published: 2026-10-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure
Structural validation of a prospect is invariably applied after the interpretation is finished, by restoring one or two key lines in 2D or, rarely, by a full 3D restoration that needs finished horizons and a specialist. The authors propose that a simple 3D kinematic forward model, built in minutes using a few explicit structural rules, fully restorable and scaled onto the mapped horizons, is a [...]
Mapping Ghana's Vanishing Tree Cover: Two Decades of Regional Loss and Shifting Deforestation Hotspots (2001-2024)
Published: 2026-10-24
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Ghana has lost a great deal of tree cover since 2000, but it is less clear where the loss is greatest and whether those places have changed over time. This study used satellite records of tree cover loss from 2001 to 2024 and counted the loss in each of Ghana's 16 regions. Only areas that had at least 30% tree canopy in 2000 were included. Out of about 6.97 million hectares of tree cover in 2000, [...]
NepalDTM: A National 8-Metre Bare-Earth Digital Terrain Model of Nepal from Multi-Source Satellite Data Fusion
Published: 2026-10-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
NepalDTM is an open bare-earth elevation model of Nepal stored on an 8 m grid. Where the NASA High Mountain Asia 8 m stereo mosaic has a usable height, that mosaic is the surface. Elsewhere the surface is Copernicus GLO-30. A histogram gradient-boosting model, trained on 6,230,548 ICESat-2 points and 7,035,904 GEDI points, predicts how far the surface sits above the ground and subtracts that [...]
Settling-driven Rayleigh–Taylor instability in a pre-existing turbulent field
Published: 2026-10-24
Subjects: Fluid Dynamics, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics
Vertical particle transport controls environmental processes ranging from sediment deposition and the export of organic material and microplastics to the fate of minerals released for carbon dioxide removal. When a particle-laden layer overlies denser water, particles destabilize the interface and descend collectively as convective plumes, far faster than individual settling. Yet this mechanism [...]
Unified Explanation of Long-Period Ground Motion Using the Basin Sloshing Index (BSI): A Dimensionless Analysis of Large-Scale Sloshing Phenomena in Sedimentary Basins
Published: 2026-10-24
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study introduces a new dimensionless index, the Basin Sloshing Index (BSI), to provide a unified explanation for long-period ground motion and persistent shaking observed in large sedimentary basins. Inspired by fluid sloshing dynamics, BSI is defined using three fundamental parameters—the basin scale L, seismic wavelength λ, and attenuation factor Q —and takes the simplified [...]
On-Fault Parameters and Fault Connectivity Control Synthetic Earthquake Catalogs and 30-Year Rupture Probabilities in RSQSim Simulations of the Eastern San Francisco Bay Area
Published: 2026-10-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The faults in the Eastern San Francisco Bay Area in California have long been known as a source of seismic hazard. This potential for large earthquakes, paired with high population density and economic activity leads to high seismic risk in the Bay Area. In this study we utilize the physics-based earthquake simulator RSQSim to generate synthetic earthquake catalogs for the San Francisco East Bay. [...]
Satellite-Based CO and NOx Emission Estimates from South-Central Chilean Plantation Fires
Published: 2026-10-23
Subjects: Environmental Chemistry, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We present top-down CO and NOx emission estimates for a south-central Chilean fire from Sentinel-5P/TROPOMI observations. Applying the Cross-Sectional Flux method to CO and the Exponentially Modified Gaussian method to NO2, with uncertainty propagated through 500-member Monte Carlo ensembles, we retrieve a median CO flux of 1,273 kg s⁻¹ (95% CI: 676–1,843 kg s⁻¹) and a median NOx flux of 7,505 g [...]
Pedogenic magnetic enhancement in a Latossolo Vermelho (Oxisol) formed on slate in the Brazilian Cerrado: an integrated record of repeated wetting–drying cycles
Published: 2026-10-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seasonal wetting–drying cycles in tropical soils can drive redox reactions that control the formation and transformation of ferrimagnetic iron oxides. In the profile-scale case study, we investigated a well-drained, clayey Latossolo Vermelho (Oxisol/ Ferralsol) developed on weakly magnetic slate in the Brazilian Cerrado. The profile was sampled to 190 cm depth in the dry season (July 2023) and at [...]