Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
ENSO-conditioned evolution of global mean surface temperature
Published: 2026-05-12
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Here we examined how the June--May trajectory of global mean surface temperature (GMST) can be anticipated from recent GMST evolution and upcoming boreal winter Ni\~no-3.4 values. Principal component analysis and dimension reduction of the data led to a simple, interpretable model in which the June--May monthly GMST trajectory is conditioned on two quantities: the average GMST of the prior 12 [...]
Episodic slowdown of global warming by a multi-year La Niña
Published: 2026-05-12
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Global mean surface temperature (GMST), which has continued to rise due to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, is closely related to the sea surface temperature variability in the tropical Pacific. In particular, GMST is known to increase during a strong and short-lived El Niño. By contrast, the global cooling effect of a weak and long-lived La Niña remains underexplored, particularly that [...]
Can Hyperscale Data Centers Alter Local Meteorology in the Kathmandu Valley? A Simulation-Based Assessment
Published: 2026-05-11
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
There is growing interest in Nepal in hosting large data centers inside the Kathmandu Valley, but how the valley’s atmosphere would respond to substantial additional heat emissions remains uncertain. The Kathmandu Valley is a closed bowl-shaped basin surrounded by mountains, with persistent nocturnal cold pools and weak boundary-layer winds that limit the dispersal of pollutants and heat from the [...]
An analogue-conditioned multi-satellite framework for daily precipitation reconstruction
Published: 2026-05-10
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Precipitation is a key component of the Earth system, yet remains difficult to reconstruct accurately due to its stochastic nature, physical drivers, and sparse observational coverage. Existing gridded datasets rely on trade-offs between station-based observations, satellite retrievals, and multi-source blending, often introducing inconsistencies and temporal limitations. Here, we present an [...]
TiMEpy: A Python Package for Analyzing Tidal Modulation of Fast and Slow Earthquakes
Published: 2026-05-09
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Due to interactions between the solid Earth and tidal forces, the crust experiences continuous stress perturbations. Understanding how earthquakes respond to tidal stresses provides unique insights into the mechanisms governing earthquake nucleation. Here, we present TiMEpy, an open-source Python package designed to detect tidal modulation in both fast and slow earthquakes. TiMEpy includes [...]
Adaptive Model Parameter Estimation Triggered by the Beneficial Observation Rate from Forecast Sensitivity to Observations
Published: 2026-05-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In NWP, the assimilation of various observations contributes to improving forecast accuracy. The contribution of each observation can be estimated by existing methods. Empirically, it is well known that only a fraction of assimilated observations are diagnosed as beneficial, meaning that they improve forecast accuracy. Previous studies have indicated that the beneficial observation rate depends [...]
Extreme Heat and Rainfall Risk Attributed to Cumulative CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Producers
Published: 2026-05-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Legal and political approaches to climate accountability require demonstrating that a particular emitter contributed to a climate impact, but quantitative solutions to this attribution challenge remain nascent. This study leverages the proportionality of global warming to cumulative CO2 emissions to develop statistical models that directly predict extreme climate risk from cumulative emissions. [...]
Polar ice-cores unravel the formation of a UV window during magnetic field collapse ~ 42 ka BP
Published: 2026-05-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
During geomagnetic excursions (GEs), compromised magnetic field and increased cosmic-ray bombardment can deplete the ozone layer forming ‘UV window(s)’ in the Earth’s atmosphere. Here, using triple sulfur-isotope systematics in polar ice-core sulfate record spanning 600 years of the Laschamp GE, we provide direct evidence of the formation of a UV window. Several events of UV-induced anomalous [...]
Antimicrobial Resistance – A Growing Global Groundwater Challenge
Published: 2026-05-08
Subjects: Education, Engineering, Life Sciences, Medicine and Health Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Antimicrobials are composed of medications such as antibiotics and antivirals which are widely used to ensure human and animal health. However, inappropriate use of antimicrobials is a major driver of antimicrobial resistance. AMR arises from complex interactions between humans, animals, microbial organisms, medicines, wildlife and the environment. Once in the wastewater stream, antibiotics are [...]
Diagnosing subseasonal and seasonal drivers of European and North African winter extremes using information theory
Published: 2026-05-08
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Diagnosing subseasonal and seasonal drivers of European and North African winter extremes using information theory
Chemical and meteorological drivers of ozone extremes during the 2019 UK summer heatwaves
Published: 2026-05-08
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Heatwave-associated air pollution episodes are increasingly recognized as a public health threat. Studies have observed a positive correlation between extreme temperature and extreme surface ozone concentrations. However, the underpinning chemical and physical drivers and their interconnections are not well quantified and may vary across regions and individual heatwave events. The 2019 UK summer [...]
Comparative Machine Learning approach to seasonal ENSO Forecasting with Time-Series Performance Evaluation
Published: 2026-05-07
Subjects: Education, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important climate phenomena that affects weather conditions worldwide. It influences monsoon seasons, droughts, and crop productivity. Forecasting of ENSO processes is rather difficult since the system is inherently nonlinear. Moreover, the Spring Predictability Barrier limits the predictive capacity of forecasters during the boreal [...]
Facility scale detection and quantification of gas flaring using imaging spectrometers
Published: 2026-05-07
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Globally, over 140 billion cubic meters of natural gas are flared each year, according to the VIIRS Nightfire (VNF) data product derived from satellite observations by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), the most widely used instrument for global flare monitoring. Although VIIRS routinely tracks global flaring activity through nighttime observations, its coarse spatial [...]
From 2D labels to 3D structure: Scalable label transfer and benchmarking of 3D vegetation models in rangeland ecosystems
Published: 2026-05-03
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Biogeochemistry, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Natural Resources and Conservation, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Remote Sensing
Three-dimensional (3D) characterisation of vegetation structure at the level of individual growth forms is critical for understanding ecosystem function and resilience, yet remains challenging in rangelands because vegetation is sparse, low-stature, and structurally heterogeneous. Recent 3D deep-learning models perform strongly in forests, but their transfer beyond closed-canopy benchmarks is [...]
A Mechanism Criterion Replaces Coupling Magnitude for Rainfall Inhibitory Skill Across Three Indo-Pacific Forcing Modes
Published: 2026-05-03
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
CPAdry — the Conditional Precipitation Anomaly, dry phase — detects rainfall inhibitory mechanism failure across three forcing modes: the MJO (intraseasonal), ENSO, and IOD (interannual). Twenty assessments at eighteen Indo-Pacific sites using two-track methodology establish the governing principle: CPAdry returns meaningful skill only where the forcing mode imposes locally active inhibition — [...]