Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Bridging ERA5 Reanalysis Data and Regulatory Air Dispersion Modelling: A Transparent Workflow Implemented through the WindRose Toolkit
Published: 2026-03-07
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Regulatory atmospheric dispersion models such as AERMOD and CALPUFF are widely adopted for Environmental Impact Assessments involving atmospheric emissions. Despite their scientific maturity and regulatory acceptance, the practical application of these modelling systems outside the North American context is often constrained by the limited availability of suitable meteorological datasets. In many [...]
Arctic summer cloud optical properties and annual sea-ice retreat
Published: 2026-03-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Changes in Arctic sea-ice areal coverage have major ecological, climate, and economic implications and are driven by diverse natural and anthropogenic forcings acting over a wide range of time scales. Cloud-related variability in atmospheric radiative budgets is suspected to be particularly important in year-to-year changes in ice melt. Here, we describe a decade of pan-Arctic satellite light [...]
Time-dependent forecast of large earthquakes from physics-informed probabilistic approach
Published: 2026-03-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The elastic energy that fuels large earthquakes accumulates heterogeneously along faults, resulting in complex earthquake occurrence patterns. Although earthquake cycle simulations help capture such complexity in seismic hazard models, their high computational cost prevents widespread use and uncertainty quantification. Here, we propose a physics-based probabilistic method to forecast the timing [...]
Characterization of the Kinematics of the Cordillera Blanca Normal Fault from InSAR
Published: 2026-03-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure
The Cordillera Blanca Normal fault (CBNF), located along the western margin of the Cordillera Blanca batholith in northern Peru, is a major extensional structure of the central Andes. Geological and geomorphological evidence indicates sustained slip over the past ~4 Ma, yet its present-day kinematics have not been quantified geodetically. Here, we use Sentinel-1 InSAR (Interferometric [...]
Assessing the medium-term risk to reef damage and rubble generation for the Great Barrier Reef
Published: 2026-03-06
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Life Sciences, Marine Biology, Natural Resources and Conservation, Oceanography, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Coral reef systems live in multi-hazard environments and are exposed to a wide range of disturbance events that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. We identify seven drivers derived from hazards that have and can result in reef damage in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR): waves, winds, bottom current velocity, coral bleaching, crown-of-thorns seastar outbreaks, ship groundings, and [...]
An analysis of landslides in Great Britain using soil texture, rainfall, and topography reveals contrasting failure conditions between organic and mineral soils
Published: 2026-03-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Soil Science
Rainfall-induced landslides cause millions of pounds in damage to infrastructure in Great Britain (GB) annually and occasionally result in human fatalities. However, there are limited guidelines or policies aimed at reducing landslide risk in GB and few studies have broadly characterized landslide incidence across the region. Furthermore, peat landslides, which are a phenomenon that occur almost [...]
Connectivity between primary and secondary subglacial drainage systems beneath a land-terminating outlet glacier of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Published: 2026-03-05
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The evolution and connectivity of subglacial drainage systems controls basal sliding and therefore modulates ice flow, yet direct observations of these systems remain limited. Here, we investigate hydraulic connectivity and its influence on ice motion at Isunnguata Sermia - a large land-terminating outlet glacier of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We use ‘Cryoegg’ wireless sensors to obtain moulin [...]
Deep-learning climate emulator ACE2 reveals a global decrease in tropical cyclone 5 frequency in the 15th Century under an El Niño-like sea surface temperature pattern
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The relatively short modern observational record limits our understanding of the relationship between global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and sea surface temperature (SST), resulting in uncertain future TC projections. Using novel deep-learning-based past-millennium simulations with the Ai2 Climate Emulator version 2 (ACE2), we provide insight into the connections between SSTs and TCs. ACE2 [...]
On the seasonal predictability of the 2020 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The 2020 Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) season was exceptionally active, producing over twenty named storms, yet several seasonal forecasts failed to predict such extreme activity across their ensemble spread. Even when forced with the observed 2020 sea surface temperatures (SSTs), physics-based models simulated only a moderately active season across their ensemble members. Using observations and [...]
Cube2sph-GPU: A GPU accelerated toolkit enabling flexible continental-scale regional and teleseismic full waveform inversion
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We present Cube2sph-GPU, a GPU-accelerated framework for continental-scale regional and teleseismic full-waveform inversion (FWI). Building upon the capabilities of SPECFEM3D_Cartesian, the toolkit introduces: (1) a flexible hybrid simulation scheme for tele-seismic simulations; (2) curvilinear C-PML; (3) spherical PDE-based kernel smoothing; and (4) highly optimized GPU kernels and I/O [...]
Accounting for uncertainty from internal variability in global-temperature based attribution of climate extremes with single realisations
Published: 2026-03-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Attribution of regional climate change to anthropogenic forcing within the single realisation available from observations is an important but challenging goal for statistical methods in climate science. Correlating regional conditions with global temperatures is a popular approach, especially for attributing downstream impacts on human health or the economy. However, the influence of internal [...]
Water-efficient Indian rice cultivation boosts exports despite high carbon footprints
Published: 2026-03-03
Subjects: Agriculture, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Sciences, Plant Sciences
Most agricultural sustainability efforts adopt a national-scale view, masking regional trade-offs between crop yields and environmental footprints. To measure trade-offs, satellite remote sensing based life cycle assessment of rice agroecosystems across India from 2004 to 2021 was conducted revealing pivotal shifts of four cultivation typologies, termed as unsustainable, conventional, productive, [...]
Resonant Activation of Oxygen as a Hypothetical Method for Low-Temperature Oxidation of Methane in Coal Seams: Theoretical Analysis, Parametric Modeling, and Regime Maps
Published: 2026-03-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This paper presents a comprehensive theoretical study of a hypothetical method for low-temperature oxidation of methane directly within a coal seam. The method is based on resonant excitation of molecular oxygen by an electromagnetic field at ∼1.6 MHz, corresponding to its EPR transition in the Earth's geomagnetic field. The work includes calculation of a priori determinable parameters (resonant [...]
Proof-of-Concept: Vertical Wind Profile Reconstruction from Ground-Based Optical Sensors Using Machine Learning
Published: 2026-03-01
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Mathematics, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Vertical wind profiles are critical for weather forecasting, aviation safety, and atmospheric research, yet remain sparsely observed due to the high cost of radiosondes (€100–200 per launch) and wind profiler radars (€100,000–1,000,000). We present a proof-of-concept demonstrating that ground-based optical measurements from low-cost amateur radio sensors can predict upper-air wind speeds across [...]
Quantifying Wave Setup Climatology along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts using a Coupled Hydrodynamic-Wave Model
Published: 2026-02-28
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Wave setup, the increase in coastal mean water level due to wave breaking, is an important but understudied component of coastal sea-level long-term variability. This study quantifies the wave setup climatology along the U.S. East and Gulf of Mexico coasts using high-resolution hydrodynamic (ADCIRC) and wave (SWAN) models. The models are forced with hourly surface pressure and wind fields, total [...]