Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Stable estimates of when global temperature thresholds will be crossed: least-squares fits as the end date of the fitted span is reduced
Published: 2026-07-07
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Reliable estimates of when global mean temperature will exceed the Paris Agreement's 2°C threshold1 are generally derived from emissions scenarios and climate models rather than from the observed temperature record itself. This study investigates whether the observed warming trajectory alone can provide a stable empirical estimate of the crossing date. Least-squares exponential, quadratic and [...]
Flood Risk Management Strategies for Bridgeport, Connecticut: AComparative Analysis of Infrastructure Hardening and Managed Retreat
Published: 2026-07-07
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study analyzes sea-level rise management options for Bridgeport, Connecticut, comparing infrastructurehardening and managed retreat using a mixed-methods approach that integrates geospatial analysis, policy analysis,and vulnerability assessment. Sea-level rise projections under NOAA scenarios range from 3.3 ft (low emission) to15.1 ft (extreme) by 2100, with the South End and East End [...]
CSUFlow25: Colorado Streamflow Ungaged Prediction Models
Published: 2026-07-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
CSUFlow25 is an updated set of statistical models for predicting streamflow in ungaged basins in Colorado, USA. It builds on the earlier CSUFlow18 models (Eurich et al., 2021) by extending the streamflow record from water years 2001–2018 to 2001–2024, expanding the pool of candidate predictor variables, and increasing the number of streamflow metrics predicted. Models were developed from a [...]
Surface, not exhaust: a multi-sensor satellite test bounds the local thermal footprint of hyperscale data centres
Published: 2026-07-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Whether hyperscale data centres (DCs) warm their surroundings has become a live policy question with directly conflicting answers: a coarse-resolution satellite preprint attributes ~2 °C of land-surface warming to facilities worldwide (Marinoni et al 2026), while peer-reviewed mobile transects near Phoenix measure +0.7-0.9 °C of near-ground air warming within a few hundred metres downwind (Sailor [...]
Leakage-audited machine learning versus ETAS for earthquake forecasting in the Sea of Marmara
Published: 2026-07-06
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Sea of Marmara hosts a seismic gap directly beneath a metropolitan region of some 18 million people, and the 23 April 2025 Mw 6.2 Kumburgaz earthquake renewed attention on whether short-term forecasting can add value there. We report a leakage-audited forecasting experiment built on a strictly causal, homogenized KOERI catalogue (31,329 model-box events, 2003–2026). Motivated by the finding [...]
When does array moveout help borehole phase picking? A leave-one-site-out, confound-free benchmark of array versus per-trace deep learning
Published: 2026-07-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Deep-learning phase pickers are increasingly deployed on borehole microseismic arrays, yet two questions central to operational monitoring remain poorly quantified: how well such models generalize to a site they were not trained on, and whether the cross-station moveout that an array provides actually improves that generalization. We give the first confound-free answer using the AMBER benchmark [...]
Transformer-based Reconstruction of Canopy Profiles from Large-Footprint Waveform LiDAR
Published: 2026-07-03
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Spaceborne laser scanning (SLS) presents a cost-effective means for frequent, global-scale monitoring of forest ecosystem parameters. Compared to airborne laser scanning (ALS), SLS offers substantially greater spatial coverage and revisit frequency, but at the cost of larger footprints, sparser sampling, and attenuated return signals. These constraints typically result in a loss of fine-scale [...]
Capturing Time-Resolved Prescribed Fire Emissions with TEMPO Special Observations
Published: 2026-07-02
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Prescribed fires are widely used for land management in the United States, but their emissions remain difficult to quantify due to their small spatial extent and short duration. We present here the first demonstration that high-resolution "special observations" from the TEMPO geostationary instrument resolve sub-hourly nitrogen dioxide NO2 column enhancements from individual prescribed fires in [...]
Geometrical Assessment of Climate Models in the Drake Passage Using Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis
Published: 2026-07-02
Subjects: Education, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Drake Passage is a narrow oceanic bottleneck that also acts as a geographic constriction. Here, both2 the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the Southern Westerly Winds are forced through a topographic gap3 between the Andes and the Antarctic Peninsula, reducing the system’s effective degrees of freedom. This4 study applies Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (M-SSA) to three surface [...]
Merge Satellite and Gauge Daily Precipitation Data for Areas with Sparse-Gauge and Rugged Terrain: A High-Accuracy Gridded Dataset CGS01 (2000-2024) across China
Published: 2026-07-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
High-precision quantiffcation of regional precipitation is the foundation of watershed water balance analysis and water resources management. However, current approaches are hindered by methodological diversity and inconsistent results, with limited accuracy, especially in gauge-sparse regions and areas with drastic topographic relief. This study proposes a dual thin-plate spline (TPS) fusion [...]
Data-Driven Extraction of Spatiotemporal Causal Networks of Extreme Snowfall Based on Long-Term Observations in the Japanese Archipelago
Published: 2026-07-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and long-term trends of extreme weather events is crucial for climate risk assessment. However, extracting causal network structures and underlying trends from observational data remains challenging due to large-scale common influences, spurious correlations, and historical missing values. In this study, we propose a generalized data-driven framework for [...]
Increased North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Risk in the Wake of a "Super" El Niño Event
Published: 2026-07-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is among the most influential modes of climate variability on Earth, dramatically reshaping global weather patterns. It is therefore a key driver of regional extremes and has been recognized as a key risk predictor for a wide range of natural hazards, from drought and wildfire to extreme rainfall and flooding. Considerable attention has been paid to the [...]
Does Free Allocation Slow Decarbonization ? Installation-Level Evidence from the EU ETS, Phases III and IV
Published: 2026-06-30
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Statistics and Probability
Installations at high risk of carbon leakage receive free allowances from the European Union Emissions Trading System. Free allowances are allocated to prevent energy-intensive factories from relocating outside the EU. However, whether free allocation slows decarbonization remains an open question. In this paper, I test this question directly. The panel was built at the installation-level. The [...]
Climate-mode-conditioned exposure of a sporting mega-event: an event-based assessment of Rugby World Cup 2027 in Australia
Published: 2026-06-30
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The environmental risk of sporting mega-events is usually assessed from host-city climatologies or, more recently, from tournament design (venue, date, kick-off time). Both overlook a distinct axis: the interannual state of the large-scale climate modes into which a given edition falls. We ask to what extent the phase of the El Ni\~no--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) [...]
ARGUS: A 17-ms End-to-End Deep Learning Pipeline for Real-Time Seismic Source Characterization and Ground Motion Prediction in Sparse-Network EGS/CCS Environments
Published: 2026-06-30
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We present ARGUS (Automated Real-time Geophysical Understanding System), an end-to-end deep-learning pipeline that jointly estimates hypocenter location, centroid moment tensor (CMT), and peak ground acceleration (PGA) distribution from sparse seismic networks, targeting induced-seismicity monitoring in enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) and carbon capture and storage (CCS). From as few as four to [...]