Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Data-Driven Extraction of Spatiotemporal Causal Networks of Extreme Snowfall Based on Long-Term Observations in the Japanese Archipelago
Published: 2026-07-02
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and long-term trends of extreme weather events is crucial for climate risk assessment. However, extracting causal network structures and underlying trends from observational data remains challenging due to large-scale common influences, spurious correlations, and historical missing values. In this study, we propose a generalized data-driven framework for [...]
Increased North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Risk in the Wake of a "Super" El Niño Event
Published: 2026-07-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is among the most influential modes of climate variability on Earth, dramatically reshaping global weather patterns. It is therefore a key driver of regional extremes and has been recognized as a key risk predictor for a wide range of natural hazards, from drought and wildfire to extreme rainfall and flooding. Considerable attention has been paid to the [...]
Does Free Allocation Slow Decarbonization ? Installation-Level Evidence from the EU ETS, Phases III and IV
Published: 2026-07-01
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Statistics and Probability
Installations at high risk of carbon leakage receive free allowances from the European Union Emissions Trading System. Free allowances are allocated to prevent energy-intensive factories from relocating outside the EU. However, whether free allocation slows decarbonization remains an open question. In this paper, I test this question directly. The panel was built at the installation-level. The [...]
Climate-mode-conditioned exposure of a sporting mega-event: an event-based assessment of Rugby World Cup 2027 in Australia
Published: 2026-07-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The environmental risk of sporting mega-events is usually assessed from host-city climatologies or, more recently, from tournament design (venue, date, kick-off time). Both overlook a distinct axis: the interannual state of the large-scale climate modes into which a given edition falls. We ask to what extent the phase of the El Ni\~no--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) [...]
ARGUS: A 17-ms End-to-End Deep Learning Pipeline for Real-Time Seismic Source Characterization and Ground Motion Prediction in Sparse-Network EGS/CCS Environments
Published: 2026-06-30
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We present ARGUS (Automated Real-time Geophysical Understanding System), an end-to-end deep-learning pipeline that jointly estimates hypocenter location, centroid moment tensor (CMT), and peak ground acceleration (PGA) distribution from sparse seismic networks, targeting induced-seismicity monitoring in enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) and carbon capture and storage (CCS). From as few as four to [...]
Coastal plain retention modulates flashflood chlorophylla anomalies in the Red Sea: a CPRI based multisite analysis
Published: 2026-06-30
Subjects: Biodiversity, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Sciences, Food Science, Life Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Sciences, Research Methods in Life Sciences
The eastern Red Sea coastal margin is among the most oligotrophic large marine ecosystems on Earth, where episodic nutrient pulses from flash floods can transiently fuel phytoplankton blooms. Yet, the extent to which upstream coastal-plain geomorphology modulates the magnitude of these flood-driven chlorophylla (Chla) responses remains poorly quantified. We tested the hypothesis that narrower [...]
Spectrally structured CNN encoding for interpretable and edgeready fractional vegetation cover mapping using UAS multispectral and imaging spectroscopy
Published: 2026-06-30
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Biogeochemistry, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Natural Resources and Conservation, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Remote Sensing
Fractional vegetation cover (FVC) is a key indicator of semi-arid ecosystem condition, but non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV) remains difficult to map because dry or senescent vegetation, litter, woody debris, and standing dead material can overlap spectrally with photosynthetic vegetation (PV) and bare ground (BE), especially where shadows, exposed bare earth surfaces, and mixed vegetation-soil [...]
Overshoot pathway fingerprints persist after global temperature stabilization
Published: 2026-06-29
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Exceedance of global warming thresholds under overshoot, peak and decline pathways may leave regional climate legacies that persist even after global temperature stabilization. This study examines whether such overshoot pathway fingerprints remain detectable after stabilization at similar global warming levels by comparing two multi-century CMIP6 simulations with different magnitudes and [...]
Shape of storms facilitates energy transfer from weather to deep ocean
Published: 2026-06-29
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Near inertial internal waves (NIWs) play a key role in transferring energy from extratropical storms into the ocean interior, where they drive turbulence that influences large scale circulation and climate. Efficient downward propaga- tion of NIW energy requires horizontal wavelengths of order 100 km, yet NIWs are conventionally assumed to be generated with much longer scales near 1000 [...]
IGM: an accessible, modular, differentiable, and GPU-accelerated high-order ice flow model
Published: 2026-06-29
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We present the Instructed Glacier Model (IGM, v3.2), an open-source framework for simulating glacier evolution from single-glacier to mountain-range scales. IGM is built on a single design principle: all physical processes, including ice flow, surface mass balance, thermodynamics, and mass conservation, are expressed as short sequences of operations on raster grids. This workflow runs natively on [...]
Direct Dating of Lithic Cuts Using Cosmogenic Nuclides: A Methodological Proposal to Establish the Construction Chronology of Megalithic Megastructures
Published: 2026-06-28
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
ABSTRACT The chronology of megalithic megastructures is currently established through the analysis of organic matter — charcoal, bone, fibers — found in proximity to the constructions. This method dates the most recently documented human presence in the vicinity of a structure. It does not date the act of construction. If a temporal gap existed between the moment of construction and the moment of [...]
Denoising teleseismic data for deep Earth studies using a supervised deep-learning auto-encoder: a case study of diffracted waves from ULVZs
Published: 2026-06-27
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seismic noise, particularly the microseism generated by the oceans, is a fundamental limitation on using short period (1 - 10 s) teleseismic data to study the deep Earth. Deep learning auto-encoders have proven effective at denoising seismic data in other applications. Here, we provide a demonstration of their potential for improving the quality of deep Earth seismic data, using Sdiff [...]
Analytical prediction of active-layer thaw and subsidence under seasonal thermal forcing: application to Svalbard permafrost
Published: 2026-06-27
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seasonal thaw of the active layer and the resulting ground subsidence strongly influence Arctic hydrology, soil-carbon release, and the stability of northern infrastructure. Lunardini (1987) derived an exact similarity solution for one-dimensional thaw in frozen soil that consolidates as it thaws. Although physically elegant, the solution has remained difficult to use in practice: usable limiting [...]
Automated landslide detection in SAR wrapped interferograms using a geomorphology-constrained YOLO CNN
Published: 2026-06-27
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Slow-moving landslides pose significant hazards in mountain environments, requiring improved detection and monitoring capabilities. Traditional mapping is accurate but time-consuming, while multitemporal InSAR approaches are limited by data complexity and velocity constraints. Wrapped dual-pass DInSAR interferograms offer an alternative by preserving deformation signals without phase unwrapping, [...]
Model Construction and Retrospective Validation of Large Earthquake Prediction
Published: 2026-06-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Based on the hypothesis that gravity-driven crustal displacement generates earthquakes and facilitates crustal material migration, and following the general law that the velocity of generalized flow in a steady-state system is proportional to the driving force and inversely proportional to the system’s internal resistance, a relationship between the frequency of large earthquakes and crustal [...]