Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Using sediment geochemical records to infer past lake water total phosphorus concentrations at a site with high internal P loading, Lake Søbygaard, Denmark
Published: 2022-06-23
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In lakes where phosphorus (P) supply is dominated by external loads, long-term mean lake water TP concentrations can be successfully reconstructed from sediment P profiles and dating using the SI-TP (Sediment Inferred lake water Total Phosphorus) mass balance model. However, it has not yet been shown that the model is applicable at lakes with high internal P loading, where sediment diagenesis [...]
Bioenergy with or without carbon dioxide removal: influence of functional unit choice and parameter variability
Published: 2022-06-21
Subjects: Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
PURPOSE. Bioenergy with carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is increasingly presented as an efficient way to mitigate climate change. This study set out to determine under which circumstances and methodological choices CDR bioenergy systems are preferable over a reference bioenergy system from a climate change mitigation perspective. In addition, the CDR systems investigated were compared to each [...]
Variational and numerical modelling strategies for cost-effective simulations of driven free-surface waves
Published: 2022-06-17
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
A new, cost-effective and widely applicable tool is developed for simulating three-dimensional (3D) water-wave motion in the context of the maritime-engineering sector, with specific focus on the formation and analysis of extreme waves generated within in-house experimental wave tanks. The resulting ``numerical wave tank'' is able to emulate realistic sea states in which complex wave-wave or [...]
Validation of glacial-interglacial rainfall variations in southwest Sulawesi using Mg/Ca and δ18O in speleothems
Published: 2022-06-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Hydrology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Speleology
The final version of this article is now published with Communications. Earth and Environment. To view this open access article, please use the Published Article DOI. Speleothem δ18O is widely used as a proxy for rainfall amount in the tropics on glacial-interglacial to interannual scales. However, uncertainties in the interpretation of this renowned proxy pose a vexing problem in tropical [...]
Quantifying baseline costs and cataloging potential optimization strategies for kelp aquaculture carbon dioxide removal
Published: 2022-06-17
Subjects: Engineering, Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
To keep global surface warming below 1.5 °C by 2100, the portfolio of cost-effective CDR technologies must expand. To evaluate the potential of macroalgae CDR, we developed a kelp aquaculture bio-techno-economic model in which large quantities of kelp would be farmed at an offshore site, transported to a deep water "sink site", and then deposited below the sequestration horizon (1,000 m). We [...]
Standing on the shoulder of a giant landslide: an InSAR look at a slow-moving hillslope under melting glaciers in the western Karakoram
Published: 2022-06-15
Subjects: Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Understanding the cascading effects of glacier melting in terms of large slope deformation in high mountainous areas could come from the use of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) techniques. In this work, we investigate a slow moving, extremely large landslide (~20 km2) in the Chitral region in Northern Pakistan, which threatens several villages. Our InSAR analyses, using Sentinel-1 [...]
The Mechanisms of Tsunami Amplification and the Earthquake Source of the 2021 M7 Acapulco, Mexico, Earthquake
Published: 2022-06-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Here we show a slip model for the 2021 M7 Acapulco, Mexico, earthquake produced by inversion of strong motion, GNSS, tide gauge, and InSAR data. The earthquake occurs within the Guerrero gap, identified as a region of concern for its seismogenic potential and paucity of large events. We find that rupture was compact, constrained to depths between 10 and 20 km and consistent of two main slip [...]
Space-time landslide hazard modeling via Ensemble Neural Networks
Published: 2022-06-02
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
For decades, a full numerical description of the spatio-temporal dynamics of a landslide could be achieved only via physics-based models. The part of the geomorphology community focusing on data-driven model has instead focused on predicting where landslides may occur via susceptibility models. Moreover, they have estimated when landslides may occur via models that belong to the [...]
Uniformitarian prediction of early-Pleistocene atmospheric CO2
Published: 2022-06-02
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
A number of groups attempted to predict atmospheric CO2 concentrations between 420 to 800 ka prior to publication of the Dome C ice-core record by the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica, EPICA. The predictions that fared best assumed that the relationships between CO2 and proxies of air temperature remained consistent over the past 800 ky [7]. Here we extend predictions of atmospheric [...]
Thermal forcing modulates North American Monsoon intensity
Published: 2022-06-02
Subjects: Climate, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Understanding the response of monsoon dynamics to climatic forcing is cru- cial for anticipating future shifts in freshwater availability across the global tropics. In this regard, a recent study [1] concludes that precipitation within the core of the North American Monsoon (NAM) should be understood as “convectively enhanced orographic rainfall in a mechanically forced stationary wave, not as a [...]
MAGEMin, an efficient Gibbs energy minimizer: application to igneous systems
Published: 2022-05-31
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Prediction of stable mineral equilibria in the Earth’s lithosphere is critical to un- ravel the tectonomagmatic history of exposed geological sections. While the recent ad- vances in geodynamic modelling allow us to explore the dynamics of magmatic trans- fer in solid mediums, there is to date no available thermodynamic package that can eas- ily be linked and efficiently accounts for the [...]
Magnetic fabrics of rhyolite ignimbrites reveal complex emplacement dynamics of pyroclastic density currents, an example from the Altenberg–Teplice Caldera, Bohemian Massif
Published: 2022-05-31
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) is commonly used to infer the flow dynamics, source areas, and post-emplacement processes of pyroclastic density currents (PDC) of young calderas (i.e. Cenozoic). At older calderas, the primary record is often obscured by post-emplacement deformation and/or long-term erosion. Here, we focus on the ~314–313 Ma welded ignimbrites inside the [...]
Mantle plumes and their interactions
Published: 2022-05-31
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Hotspots are regions of intraplate volcanism or especially strong volcanism along plate boundaries, and many of them are likely caused by underlying mantle plumes – localized hot upwellings from deep inside the Earth. It is still uncertain, whether all plumes or just some of them rise from the lowermost mantle, and to what extent and where they entrain chemically different materials. Also, [...]
Bayesian modelling of piecewise trends and discontinuities to improve the estimation of coastal vertical land motion
Published: 2022-05-31
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
One of the major sources of uncertainty affecting vertical land motion (VLM) estimations are discontinuities and trend changes. Trend changes are most commonly caused by seismic deformation, but can also stem from long-term (decadal to multidecadal) surface loading changes or from local origins. Although these issues have been extensively addressed for Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) [...]
Efficient Probabilistic Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification of Hurricane Surge and Inundation
Published: 2022-05-31
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study proposes a methodology for efficient probabilistic prediction of near-landfall hurricane-driven storm surge, tide, and inundation. We perturb forecasts of hurricane track, intensity, and size according to quasi-random low-discrepancy Korobov sequences of historical forecast errors with assumed Gaussian and uniform statistical distributions. These perturbations are run in an ensemble of [...]