Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Earth Sciences
Methodological and conceptual shortcomings of MEECC limit its transparency and policy relevance
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Kanitkar, Jayaraman & Lavanyaa (KJL from here on) introduce the Model for Energy Equity and Climate Compatibility (MEECC_V.1), an analytical tool positioned as an alternative integrated assessment framework. MEECC is intended to facilitate the construction of scenarios to operationalize climate-compatibility, equity, and feasibility. The attention to the development-mitigation nexus and [...]
Recent Changes in Lake Chad’s Surface Water Extent: A Remote Sensing Assessment Using Sentinel-2 Land Cover Data (2017-2025)
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Physical and Environmental Geography, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science
Lake Chad is an endorheic freshwater lake located at the junction of four countries; Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon in West-Central Africa. Lake Chad, once one of Africa’s largest freshwater bodies, has experienced significant hydrological fluctuations over the past decades. While long-term historical analyses highlight a severe 90% surface area contraction since the 1960s, short-term [...]
Three-Dimensional Numerical Modeling of Glacier Flow and U-Shaped Valley Evolution in Subtropical Taiwan
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Glacial erosion plays a critical role in shaping alpine topography,yet the coupled effects of ice deformation, basal sliding, andbedrock erosion on millennial-scale valley morphodynamics remainchallenging to quantify. This study presents three-dimensionalsimulations of glacier dynamics and bed evolution in Xue MountainGlacial Cirque No.~2, Taiwan, over an effective glaciation timescaleof 9~ka. [...]
P-T-t-d history of the Greater Himalayan Sequence in the Zanskar Shear Zone, NW India
Published: 2026-09-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure
We present a synthesis of pressure-temperature-time-deformation (P-T-t-d) conditions that track the evolution of the Greater Himalaya Sequence (GHS) exhumed along the Zanskar Shear Zone (ZSZ), the western arm of the South Tibetan Detachment and that spans the entirety of the Himalayan range. The dominant mineralogy is Qz + Kfs + Pl + Bt + Grt + Ilm + Sil(Fi) ± Ms ± Ky ± St. P-T paths constructed [...]
Skillful Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction with AI Weather--Climate Models Forced by Dynamically Predicted SSTs
Published: 2026-09-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
AI weather-climate models are far cheaper than dynamical seasonal prediction models and have shown skillful tropical cyclone (TC) prediction under persisted sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, but their skill under dynamically predicted ocean boundary conditions, benchmarked against an established dynamical seasonal prediction system, is untested. We evaluate eight seasonal hindcast [...]
Assessing Spatial and Temporal Variability of Vertical Land Motion Along Coastal Massachusetts Using Sentinel-1 InSAR and GNSS Time Series Analysis
Published: 2026-09-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Vertical land motion (VLM) is a critical component of relative sea-level rise (RSLR) assessments and can vary substantially across local to regional scales and over multi-year to decadal timescales due to differences in geology, natural processes, and anthropogenic influences. Coastal Massachusetts (MA) is a low-lying, geologically diverse region encompassing densely urbanized shorelines, [...]
Early Hadean Earth conditions were ideal for prebiotic chemistry
Published: 2026-09-22
Subjects: Earth Sciences
The time at which surface conditions favorable for prebiotic chemistry were established on Earth remains debated. Following magma-ocean solidification, high atmospheric pressure modulated the release of water from Earth’s primary crust. Here, we model the coupled formation of early oceans and felsic crust under these conditions. Our calculations show that a hydrated primary crust forms, resulting [...]
Characterizing and Predicting Change in the Global Ocean Biosphere: A Four-Dimensional Observing Strategy for the 2028–2037 Decadal Survey
Published: 2026-09-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Ocean ecosystems constitute the largest habitable volume on Earth and regulate climate, support fisheries and a global Blue Economy valued at an estimated $1.5 trillion annually and provide services on which human wellbeing depends. Four decades of satellite ocean color observations have transformed understanding of phytoplankton distribution, biodiversity, and productivity, and NASA's PACE [...]
Topology-Aware Quality Control of Triangulated Terrain Models Using Local Euler Curvature and Elevation-Filtration Curves
Published: 2026-09-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geomorphology, Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Triangulated irregular networks (TINs) are widely used to represent topography and bathymetry, but their quali-ty control is usually dominated by geometric criteria such as minimum angle and aspect ratio, which do not test whether connectivity errors have changed the topology of the mesh. We present a topology-aware quali-ty-control framework based on a local Euler-curvature identity and on [...]
Can a Data Repository Survive a Crisis? Development of the Repository Crisis Scorecards
Published: 2026-09-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Disaster scenarios are not usually considered by scientists when publishing or archiving data. The goal is often to satisfy more immediate needs and requirements of funders, journal publishers, or collaborators. Yet, recent events around the globe, combined with the increased need for high-quality data to solve large-scale problems, have highlighted the vulnerability of data stored in [...]
Compound Supershear Rupture During the 2026 Venezuela Earthquake Doublet
Published: 2026-09-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The 24 June 2026 Venezuela earthquake doublet occurred along a complex transform-fault system. Teleseismic P waves encompassing both cataloged events were analyzed using potency density tensor inversion with seven structure models. All models indicate predominantly eastward rupture over approximately 220 km, including several stages of supershear propagation. Three apparent rupture stalls [...]
The single-pair unwrapping ceiling is a property of the track, not of the radar: Sentinel-1 evidence from rock–ice avalanches at Langtang Lirung and Ronti Peak
Published: 2026-09-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology
This study asks what single-pair satellite data can detect before rock–ice avalanches, such as the Langtang Lirung (Nepal) and Ronti Peak (Chamoli, India) failures. The single-pair line-of-sight limit of 0.42 m yr⁻¹ for 12-day Sentinel-1 pairs is treated as a property of the radar, but the downslope ceiling depends on the track. I measure sensitivity to downslope motion f across Copernicus GLO-30 [...]
New insights into rift evolution from data-constrained burial and thermal histories at the northern South China Sea margin
Published: 2026-09-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology
The evolution of the rifted margin of the northern South China Sea challenges predictions of previous models but a knowledge gap still exists regarding how thermal history varies at different locations and times of rifting. International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expeditions 367/368/368X collected samples of sediment that can be used to model the thermal evolution at different rifting stages [...]
Seasonal variation of earthquake source characteristics of the long-duration Palghar swarm, western India
Published: 2026-09-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure
A swarm sequence initiated in November 2018 in the Palghar region near the western coast of India, and continued with high intensity for two years. About 8300 earthquakes were found with horizontal and depth uncertainties of ≤ 1.5 km after relocation. The earthquakes were distributed along two narrow N-S oriented clusters, separated by ~5 km. We performed time-domain regional waveform full moment [...]
Unlocking Blue Carbon's Potential Requires Targeted Uncertainty Reductions
Published: 2026-09-19
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Oceanography, Sustainability
Coastal “blue” carbon ecosystems like swamps and marshes are among the most efficient natural carbon sinks on Earth. Consequently, restoring and conserving these wetlands is gaining interest from private and government stakeholders as a nature-based solution to offset greenhouse gas emissions and generate revenue through carbon credits. However, the financial viability of blue carbon crediting is [...]