Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Earth Sciences
Shear localization as a key control on mass-transport complexes seal integrity: insights from geophysical datasets
Published: 2025-07-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Sedimentology
Mass-transport complexes (MTCs), existing in all sedimentary basins worldwide, can serve as effective seals for hydrocarbons and carbon dioxide storage due to shear-induced overcompaction. However, localized seal failure is occasionally observed in specific part of the MTCs, leading to hydrocarbon and carbon dioxide leakage and posing potential threats to seabed stability. Due to the scarcity of [...]
Assessing uncertainty of source rock properties using Monte Carlo basin modeling – Application to Canning Basin, Australia
Published: 2025-07-23
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability, Stratigraphy
This study presents a Monte Carlo basin modeling framework for quantifying uncertainty in source rock property predictions by integrating geological, geophysical, and geochemical inputs. The approach accounts for variability in petrological parameters from rock physics inversion, paleo-erosion magnitudes, organic facies properties, and boundary conditions to simulate source rock properties such [...]
Data Assimilation in Reduced-order Model of Chaotic Earthquake Sequences
Published: 2025-07-22
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Realistic models of earthquake sequences can be simulated by assuming faults governed by rate-and-state friction embedded in an elastic medium. Exploring the possibility of using such models for earthquake forecasting is challenging due to the difficulty of integrating Partial Differential Equation (PDE) models with sparse, low-resolution observational data. This paper presents a [...]
A new method of assessing Climate Sensitivity.
Published: 2025-07-22
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Planetary Sciences
Abstract— The IPCC regards carbon dioxide as the most relevant driver of climate warming and their Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) refines this to a likely range of 2.5°C to 4.0°C and a very likely range of 2.0°C to 5.0°C for climate sensitivity to a doubling of present levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Since this is a very large range the need exists to find a method to better quantify climate [...]
Tephra fallout and associated deposits (Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, 3rd edition, book chapter)
Published: 2025-07-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
The lifecycle of volcanic fall deposits begins with explosive fragmentation, continues as particles rise through the atmosphere, and culminates with sedimentation on the ground. This chapter explores how fall deposits can reveal the unique eruption and transport processes that shaped them. While we can directly observe modern eruptions to understand their dynamics, unobserved volcanic events are [...]
Holocene relative sea-level changes from the Atlantic coast of South America
Published: 2025-07-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology
Holocene sea-level changes along the Atlantic coast of South America reflect a complex interplay between glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA), regional tectonics, and local sedimentary processes. However, the uneven spatial and temporal resolution of existing sea-level data has hindered regional-scale assessments. Here, we compile and standardize 1108 relative sea-level (RSL) data points from [...]
Ice dynamic and hydrological response to ice-dammed lake drainages at Isunnguata Sermia, West Greenland
Published: 2025-07-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Ice-marginal lakes are increasingly common around Greenland and are important for modulating glacier runoff and dynamics. This study investigates the evolution of a ~3 km2 and up to ~100 m deep ice-dammed lake at Isunnguata Sermia, West Greenland. Satellite observations between 1987 and 2024, and field observations of a 2023 drainage using passive seismics, GNSS and time-lapse imagery reveal that [...]
Comments on “Osmosis Drives Explosions and Methane Release in Siberian Permafrost” by Morgado et al. 2024
Published: 2025-07-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences
This commentary addresses the model proposed by Morgado et al. (2024) in their paper, “Osmosis Drives Explosions and Methane Release in Siberian Permafrost.” The model explores the role of osmotic pressures in explaining the formation of gas escape craters in the Western Siberian permafrost. While it presents a novel perspective on permafrost dynamics under climate change, three significant [...]
Artificial Intelligence in Climate Science: A State-of-the-Art Review (2020–2025)
Published: 2025-07-15
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Statistics and Probability
Climate change is intensifying extreme weather events and posing complex challenges to human and natural systems. In parallel, rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) offer new tools to tackle climate science problems. AI can analyze vast climate datasets, improve forecasts, and optimize climate solutions at scales and speeds beyond traditional methods. For [...]
Statistical rock physics inversion for assessing source rock properties from seismic signatures: an application to the Canning Basin, Australia
Published: 2025-07-15
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Quantifying petrophysical properties and potentials of source rocks is important for subsurface modeling and characterization. However, predicting these properties using seismic signatures and well-log information is a high-dimensional, nonlinear inverse problem, and is subject to uncertainty due to data ambiguities. In this study, a statistical rock physics inversion workflow is proposed to [...]
Volcano-tectonic controls on magmatic evolution at Campi Flegrei, Italy: insights from thermodynamic modelling
Published: 2025-07-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
Campi Flegrei caldera (Naples, southern Italy) is one of the most hazardous volcanoes on Earth, having produced more than 70 eruptions in the past 15 kyr, and currently showing significant signs of unrest within a densely populated part of Europe. Post-15 ka eruptions span a range of eruptive styles and compositions, which broadly correlate with the spatial and structural location of vents within [...]
Regional Responses to Oceanic Variability Constrain Global Drought Synchrony
Published: 2025-07-11
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Synchronized droughts threaten global food security, with concerns about increased frequency and duration under climate change. However, their long-term evolution and physical limits remain unknown. We analyze 61 drought networks over 120 years (1901–2020) of scPDSI data, employing a suite of network synchronization measures and empirical orthogonal functions to unravel the physical drivers and [...]
Mapping Europe's Natural Hydrogen Potential: A Continental-Scale Geological Prospectivity Assessment
Published: 2025-07-10
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Natural hydrogen, generated by a range of geological processes in the Earth's crust, is emerging as a promising carbon-neutral energy source. However, systematic large-scale assessments of its subsurface occurrence remain limited. This study presents the first continental-scale prospectivity map of natural hydrogen in Europe, integrating geological indicators of hydrogen generation, reservoir [...]
Deglaciation history and relative sea level changes since the Last Glacial Maximum in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada
Published: 2025-07-10
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy
During the last glacial period, continents and surrounding shelves in high latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere were covered by ice sheets. Their retreat during the late Pleistocene and Holocene resulted in isostatic adjustments of the previously glaciated landmass, which influenced post-glacial changes in relative sea level (RSL). Many questions, however, remain about the timing and [...]
Constraining the paleoclimate and paleoecology of the Selandian – Thanetian transition in the Lower Wilcox, Texas Gulf Coast
Published: 2025-07-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy
The Selandian–Thanetian Transition Event (STTE) represents a relatively understudied interval of carbon cycle instability and environmental disruption during the Paleocene. This study presents a comprehensive sedimentological, palynological, and geochemical record of the STTE based on two shallow marine wells (Moczygemba VT #11 and Vogelsang Frieda #1) from the Texas Gulf Coast. Our multi-proxy [...]