Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Earth Sciences
Seafloor Geodesy Unveils Seismogenesis of Large Subduction Earthquakes in México
Published: 2025-03-26
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seafloor geodesy may lead to deep understanding of subduction systems and seismogenesis. Based on measurements of near-trench deformations of the oceanic and overriding plates, in this investigation we elucidate the tectonic and mechanical processes leading to the Mw7.0 Acapulco, Mexico, earthquake in 2021 at the heart of the Guerrero seismic gap. We exploit unprecedented ocean-bottom [...]
Frequency-dependent seismic radiation process of the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake from teleseismic P-wave back-projection
Published: 2025-03-26
Subjects: Earth Sciences
A large devastating earthquake of Mw 7.5 struck the Noto Peninsula, Japan, on January 1st, 2024. Persistent seismic swarms have preceded the main rupture around the hypocenter since 2020, likely driven by crustal fluids migrating upward from the lower crust. In this study, we investigated the frequency-dependent seismic radiation process using multi-frequency teleseismic P-wave back projection. [...]
Three times accelerated glacier area loss in Svalbard revealed by deep learning
Published: 2025-03-22
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The rapid warming in polar regions highlights the need to monitor climate change impacts such as glacier retreat and related global sea level rise. Glacier area is an essential climate variable but its tracking is complicated by the labour-intensive manual digitisation of satellite imagery. Here we introduce ICEmapper, a deep learning model that maps glacier outlines from Sentinel-1 time series [...]
Weakening of AMOC linked to past Greenland Ice Sheet retreat
Published: 2025-03-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Paleontology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
A weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is predicted to occur under multiple scenarios of future warming. However, the effect of meltwater from a decaying Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) on AMOC is uncertain. Using a basin-wide network of North Atlantic sediment cores, we show that the largescale melting of the GrIS during a previous interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 11c [...]
Timing of a future glaciation in view of anthropogenic climate change
Published: 2025-03-20
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences
Human activities are expected to delay the next glacial inception because of the long atmospheric lifetime of anthropogenic CO2. We present the first Earth system model simulations for the next 200,000 years with dynamic ice sheets and interactive atmospheric CO2, exploring how emissions will impact a future glacial inception. Historical emissions (500 PgC) are unlikely to delay inception, [...]
Warm deep ocean temperatures from clumped isotopes suggest high climate sensitivity in early Cenozoic hothouse
Published: 2025-03-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry
The early Cenozoic was characterized by the warmest climates and highest atmospheric CO2 levels of the past 85 Myrs. Reconstructions of deep ocean temperatures based on benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope records are typically used to infer Earth’s global climate state during this hothouse world. However, this approach requires uncertain assumptions, regarding the seawater isotope composition [...]
Resolved tropical cyclones trigger CO2 uptake and phytoplankton bloom in an Earth system model simulation
Published: 2025-03-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The ocean carbon cycle is directly impacted by storms in the atmosphere. Tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly, are known to drive intense air-sea CO2 fluxes and to trigger phytoplankton blooms. However, the latest generation of Earth system models (ESM) cannot realistically represent TCs due to their coarse spatial resolution (typically 100-200 km grid spacing). Here, we present the first [...]
Reflections on the first State of the Map Conference in Malawi
Published: 2025-03-15
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geographic Information Sciences, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science
State of the Map (SotM) conferences are important events that enable OpenStreetMap (OSM) contributors and users to present and discuss their work. However, when international SotM conferences are held in the Global North countries, participation by African geospatial scientists is not guaranteed due to various barriers, including travel costs and visa restrictions. Conversely, locally held SotM [...]
Embracing Large Language Model (LLM) Technologies in Hydrology Research
Published: 2025-03-15
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology
The growing complexity of hydrological systems necessitates innovative approaches to data management, knowledge management, and model development. Large Language Models (LLMs) have great potential to revolutionize hydrological research by unifying and advancing these three critical aspects. In this perspective work, we review recent advances and applications of LLMs and exemplify using LLMs in [...]
Mercury budget in global rivers at present-day: impacts from reservoirs and dams
Published: 2025-03-14
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Water Resource Management
Many world rivers are currently polluted by mercury (Hg) compounds, leading to the bioaccumulation of methylmercury (MeHg) in the food web, which poses potential health risks to humans. However, the riverine Hg budgets of global scale remain poorly understood due to limited observations, complicating efficient environmental governance. Here, we employ a process-driven Hg model to track its [...]
Plausible global emissions scenario for the 2℃-target aligned with China’s net-zero pathway
Published: 2025-03-11
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Due to sizeable anthropogenic CO2 emissions, China’s transition towards carbon neutrality will fundamentally alter global CO2 emissions, providing critical insights into warming levels, extreme events, overshoot, tipping points, and regional climate impacts. Existing emission scenarios that fail to reflect this transition increasingly diverge from reality. To bridge this gap, we developed an [...]
Modern Cave Monitoring Informs Interpretations of Past Climate Change: Applications to Titan Cave, Wyoming
Published: 2025-03-10
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Speleology
Monitoring of cave environments is an essential process for deciphering records of past climate change preserved in the geochemical composition of speleothems, or mineral cave deposits. This study presents data from a multi-year monitoring effort in Titan Cave, Wyoming, a site of interest due to the abundance of speleothems suitable for paleoclimate reconstruction. Titan Cave exhibits annual cave [...]
Fracturing during freezing in salty ice: preliminary analysis using a low-cost model system
Published: 2025-03-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The fracture properties of saline water ice play an important role in governing the mechanical behavior of sea ice, marine ice sheets, and icy planetary bodies. Here, we design a low-cost experimental system based on a simple observation: fractures form when freshwater is frozen in a plastic bag, but do not form when a small amount of NaCl salt (several g/L) is added before freezing. We [...]
Drastic Changes in Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Led to Biological Mass Extinction and Explosion
Published: 2025-03-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Paleontology
When the area of polar ice caps expands to a certain threshold, a positive feedback effect will occur. Due to the strong reflection of sunlight by ice and snow, the global climate will become cold and dry. CO₂ in the atmosphere will be rapidly sequestered in the seabed and permafrost through the biological carbon pump, thereby affecting plant photosynthesis, reducing NPP and the nutritional value [...]
Improved LA-Q-ICP-MS U-Pb Zircon Age Estimates for Young (< 10 Ma) Zircons & Quantification of Bias in CL Guided Spot Selection
Published: 2025-03-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We present a new approach to reducing U-Pb data from zircons obtained by laser ablation-quadrupole-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-Q-ICP-MS), with emphasis on young (< 10 Ma) zircons. In young zircons the 207Pb yield is extremely low, generating a relatively high abundance of zero values during analyses. This impacts the use of 207Pb/206Pb in application of Tera-Wasserburg [...]