Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Earth Sciences
Accessible Climate and Impact Model Output for Studying the Human and Environmental Impacts of Nuclear Conflict
Published: 2025-10-03
Subjects: Agriculture, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Nuclear winter refers to the suite of physical and biological consequences that may follow nuclear conflict, particularly the cooling and darkening of Earth’s surface due to black carbon soot in the upper atmosphere. While the associated changes in temperature, precipitation, and food system productivity have been the subject of climate modeling for decades, the outputs of models used to project [...]
From Complex SDG Systems to Network Models: an Ontology-Based Eight-Step Framework
Published: 2025-10-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Studies, Sustainability
With only 18% of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) on track for 2030, systems-based approaches to understanding their interdependencies are essential. Network science can reveal leverage points and guide prioritisation, yet it is often applied without sufficient domain integration, obscuring rather than clarifying sustainability dynamics. We present an eight-step framework for evaluating [...]
Mechanisms of Lithospheric Dripping in Earth’s Convecting Mantle: Implications for Tectonic Switching
Published: 2025-10-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Tectonics and Structure
Gravity-driven dripping is a key recycling process of lithospheric materials into the underlying mantle reservoir. Here, we use 2D computational fluid dynamic (CFD) thermo-chemical simulations to unveil how such dripping process occurs by modulating the thermal convection in Earth’s mantle. Our simulations incorporate the following variables: lithospheric buoyancy contrasts (B), metamorphic [...]
Planetary analog sites in the Indian subcontinent and the Indian Ocean: Underexplored environments suited for astrobiological and space research
Published: 2025-09-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Microbiology and Microbial Ecology Life Sciences, Other Planetary Sciences
A central objective of astrobiology is to evaluate the habitability of other planetary bodies, and given the high cost and logistical complexity of space missions, preliminary investigations of planetary analog sites are a critical step in supporting and de-risking future exploration efforts. Planetary analog sites are extreme environments on Earth that exhibit one or more environmental, [...]
Satellite-Derived Approaches for Coal Mine Methane Estimation: A Re-view
Published: 2025-09-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences
Methane emissions from coal mines, especially surface operations, are spatially diffuse, presenting signif-icant challenges for accurate quantification. Satellites such as TROPOMI, GHGSat, PRISMA, Gaofen-5, and GOSAT have been extensively used for detecting methane emissions at various scales, from individual point sources to regional and global assessments. Despite various advancements, methane [...]
Paleoecology indicates wave climate as key factor in coral reef development
Published: 2025-09-24
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Stratigraphy
The Last Interglacial (~125,000 years ago) experienced global temperatures warmer than today, making it a natural analog for future climate scenarios. Contemporary coral reefs preserve ecological signals that offer valuable insights into past climate dynamics. Here, we examine the fossil reefs of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao to reconstruct wind and wave conditions during this period. While modern [...]
The implications of overshooting 1.5°C on Earth system tipping elements - a review
Published: 2025-09-22
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Other Earth Sciences, Other Planetary Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Sciences, Sustainability
Due to insufficient emission reductions in recent years, it is increasingly likely that global warming will exceed the 1.5 °C temperature limit in the coming decades. As a result, several Earth system tipping elements could, at least temporarily, have their tipping points surpassed, posing risks of large-scale and profound structural change. Tipping does not always occur immediately upon crossing [...]
Global hyper-resolution groundwater dataset for assessing historical and future groundwater dynamics
Published: 2025-09-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Planetary Hydrology, Planetary Sciences
Sustainable management of global groundwater is a key societal challenge and central to Sustainable Development Goals. To address limited observations and coarse global models, we present a global hyper-resolution dataset of monthly groundwater heads and water table depth at 30 arc-seconds (~1 km), simulated by GLOBGM, a global groundwater flow model. The data set follows ISIMIP protocols and [...]
Efficient Self-Attention Based Joint Optimization for Lithology and Petrophysical Parameter Estimation in the Athabasca Oil Sands
Published: 2025-09-17
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Earth Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology
Accurately identifying lithology and petrophysical parameters, such as porosity and water saturation, are essential in reservoir characterization. Manual interpretation of well-log data, the conventional approach, is not only labor-intensive but also susceptible to human errors. To address these challenges of lithology identification and petrophysical parameter estimation in the Athabasca Oil [...]
FLOCCULATION, GRAVITY FLOWS, AND TOTAL ORGANIC CARBON HOTSPOTS IN LAKE: INSIGHTS FROM FLUME EXPERIMENTS
Published: 2025-09-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Lakes serve as one of the significant sinks for organic carbon. For lake deposits, it is generally accepted that water depth is a primary control on the spatial distribution of total organic carbon (TOC) accumulation because the deeper part of a lake potentially has a higher organic population to be settled. However, lake TOC distribution is often spatially variable regardless of water depth, and [...]
Coastal groundwater level trends reveal global susceptibility to seawater intrusion
Published: 2025-09-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Coastal groundwater is a vital source of freshwater that is threatened by overabstraction and rising sea levels. Yet, our understanding of where global coastal groundwater levels (GWLs) are declining and what regions are susceptible to future seawater intrusion (SWI) remains limited. Here, we present the first global, observation-based assessment of coastal GWL trends, using more than 550,000 [...]
A Hybrid Iron/Green-Rust-Urea Model for Prebiotic Chemistry: A Synthesis of Testable Pathways for Planetary Astrobiology
Published: 2025-09-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Planetary Geochemistry, Planetary Geology, Planetary Hydrology, Planetary Sciences
We propose a quantitative, testable framework for abiogenesis that links submarine alkaline vents, which supply H₂, ΔpH, and Fe/Fe–S catalysis, to subaerial hot-spring fields that provide wet–dry concentration and UV-driven photoredox chemistry. To bridge dilution between environments, we specify mobile “holding pens” (green-rust/iron flocs, silica mats, pumice rafts, and sea-surface [...]
South Atlantic Anomaly Influence on Jet‑Stream Dynamics and Surface Climate
Published: 2025-09-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physics
This work proposes a novel causal framework for recent climate change, departing fundamentally from greenhouse-gas-centric models. The central hypothesis is that the primary driver of global warming and biospheric stress is the degradation of Earth’s magnetic shielding—most clearly manifested in the progressive enlargement of the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA), expanding ~5% per two decades within [...]
Multi-proxy approach in tracking circulation change in the western North Atlantic during the Little Ice Age
Published: 2025-09-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Little Ice Age (LIA), a period from ~1400 CE to 1900 CE, was characterized by colder winter and more frequent extreme weather event, particularly in the Northern hemisphere. While the exact causes of the Little Ice Age remain a topic of ongoing research, evidence suggests that changes in ocean circulation patterns likely played a role in the observed global cooling, although the specific [...]
Strategic crop relocation could substantially mitigate nuclear winter yield losses
Published: 2025-09-11
Subjects: Agriculture, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Food Science
Nuclear war could inject millions of tonnes of soot into the stratosphere, cooling the Earth and devastating crop yields. We assess crop relocation—switching which crops are grown where—as an adaptation strategy. Using the Mink crop model, we simulate six major crops under three nuclear winter scenarios (16, 47, and 150 Tg of soot). Without adaptation, global caloric production falls 23%, 53%, [...]