Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Earth Sciences
Krasheninnikov eruption facilitated by M8.8 Kamchatka earthquake and hidden critical state
Published: 2026-09-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
Large earthquakes can trigger volcanic eruptions, but the required conditions and mechanisms remain uncertain. Here, we investigate whether the August 2025 eruption of Krasheninnikov volcano, Russia, was facilitated by the July 29th, 2025, Mw 8.8 Kamchatka megathrust earthquake. InSAR observations from 2016 to 2025 show no pre-earthquake inflation and satellite SO2 data indicate no detectable [...]
Estimating CO2 Leakage Fluxes along Legacy Wells Using a Rapid Physics-Based Screening Approach
Published: 2026-09-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Geology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Petroleum Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Achieving net-zero targets demands the rapid expansion of CO2 geological storage, but legacy wells in mature petroleum provinces represent a significant containment risk when engineered barriers degrade. At the early assessment stage, storage projects need to rapidly bound plausible leakage magnitudes across large legacy-well inventories when integrity data are sparse; however, suitable modelling [...]
Investigation of Drivers and Sources of Potential Harmful Algal Blooms in Lake Anna, Virginia, 2023–24
Published: 2026-09-02
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
Algal blooms in freshwater reservoirs are an increasing concern because of the risk to aquatic ecosystem health, recreational use, and water quality. Among the taxa that comprise an algal bloom, cyanobacteria are of particular concern due to the potential to produce toxic compounds which can cause acute and chronic illness in humans if ingested through contaminated water or shellfish. When toxins [...]
Unsupervised Clustering for Identifying Dusty Days and Their Sources: A Long-Term Data Study in Sanandaj, Iran
Published: 2026-09-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences
Dust storms are a persistent environmental hazard in the Middle East, yet long-term monitoring remains limited by sparse ground observations and the lack of objective, reproducible event definitions. This study develops a transferable, data-driven framework for objectively identifying dusty days in data-scarce regions and explicitly addresses two key issues: defining dust events using defensible [...]
A cascade, not a flood: testing the competing accounts of the 26 August 2026 Lhende Khola–Bhote Koshi disaster
Published: 2026-09-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Glaciology, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
On 26 August 2026 a rock–ice mass detached above the Lhende Khola on the China–Nepal border, blocked the channel, and released a flow that travelled about 100 km down the Bhote Koshi and Trishuli, killing hundreds of people and removing about a tenth of Nepal's generating capacity in a single morning. Reporting produced mutually incompatible accounts of the cause, while the agency best placed to [...]
Structural and dynamical properties of hydrous magmatic liquids at high pressure: insights from Raman spectroscopy observations during diamond anvil cell experiments
Published: 2026-08-31
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Silicate liquids play a central role in the differentiation and internal dynamics of terrestrial planets by controlling the transport of heat and matter. One of their key properties is viscosity, which can be strongly influenced by pressure. Currently, there is not enough data to develop general models of viscosity at high pressure. Besides, data on the short and medium range order structure of [...]
Landslide Susceptibility Modelling and Infrastructure Exposure in the Zillertal, Austrian Alps
Published: 2026-08-31
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Geomorphology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Spatial Science
Landslides are a major threat in alpine regions, as steep terrain, complex geology and locally concentrated infrastructure increase societal exposure to landslide hazards. This study develops a landslide susceptibility model for the Zillertal (Tyrol, Austria), utilizing a Random Forest modelling approach. A high-resolution landslide susceptibility map was created using seven geomorphometric, [...]
Deep-learning-based denoising and interpolation of small displacements caused by fault slip using InSAR and GNSS data: Application to the 2019 Mw 6.2 Hyuga-nada earthquake
Published: 2026-08-31
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences
In recent years, deep learning techniques have become important tools in Solid Earth science, including geodesy. Previous studies have applied deep learning techniques to synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) or Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data, which are two major observation techniques of satellite geodesy, to mitigate noise or detect small signals. Because InSAR and [...]
Super El Niño Winters and the Arctic Polar Vortex: Response Heterogeneity, QBO Modulation, and a Prospectively Defined Test for Winter 2026/27
Published: 2026-08-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In the three strongest El Niño winters of the instrumental record (1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16) the Arctic polar vortex did not collapse in a major midwinter sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). This study starts from the premise that the observation is not a paradox: 58% of El Niño winters contain at least one major SSW, so the chance probability of three consecutive SSW-free winters is 0.42³≈0.07, [...]
Deep Learning-Based Meteorological Data Downscaling: A Comparative Study with Physics Informed CNN and a Component-Level Ablation Analysis
Published: 2026-08-29
Subjects: Computer Engineering, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Meteorological statistical downscaling is a critical technique for deriving high-resolution climate information from coarse global reanalysis products. This experiment investigates the application of five representative deep learning architectures for downscaling ERA5 reanalysis 2m temperature fields from 1° to 0.25° spatial resolution (4x upscaling factor) over the China region, spanning the [...]
The Bhote Koshi–Trishuli flash flood of 26 August 2026, Rasuwa, Nepal: warning latency exceeded flood travel time
Published: 2026-08-29
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Hydrology
An ice-rock mass detached from the northern flank of the Langtang massif, Nepal, at 08:37:10 Nepal Time on 26 August 2026. It blocked the Lhende Khola and released a cascade that killed more than 500 people along the Bhote Koshi-Trishuli-Narayani corridor. This study measures the warning chain end to end, timing the front at six stations from ten-minute stage series recovered from the river-watch [...]
Space-based InSAR with sub-daily temporal baselines
Published: 2026-08-29
Subjects: Aerospace Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) underpins the Surface Deformation and Change observable prioritized by the 2018 decadal survey, yet the temporal sampling of current assets aliases many transient geophysical processes. For single-satellite repeat-pass InSAR, satellite orbits accommodate temporal baselines at integer nodal day intervals down to a single nodal day. Processes that [...]
Desert pavements stabilise arid vegetation patterns
Published: 2026-08-26
Subjects: Desert Ecology, Earth Sciences, Geomorphology
Some vegetation patterns have aridity-dependent morphology. On low-angle arid hillslopes, vegetation organises into bands which follow topographic contours. Terraces emerge with these bands due to vegetation’s drag on sediment-laden runoff, creating a topographic signature of life diagnostic of precipitation rate. Another widespread feature of arid environments is desert pavement, surficial [...]
Data Test of a Hydro-Kinematic State Graph for Landslide Forecasting
Published: 2026-08-26
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Geomorphology, Statistics and Probability
A graph model can make landslide-monitoring relationships explicit, but a graph is not automatically more informative than a well-regularized time-series model. This study tests that distinction on the publicly released Lamosano landslide record from northeastern Italy. The processed dataset contains 161 observations of 11-day horizontal InSAR differential displacement and rainfall from 10 April [...]
Numerical modeling and hazard analysis of Kuwait dust storm events using WRF Chemistry model
Published: 2026-08-26
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Dust storms have a negative impact on socio-economic events in Kuwait, including traffic accidents, seaport closures, airport shutdowns, and flight delays, and agriculture degradation. From the diurnal analysis of weather parameters, it was noticed that dust storms were more severe from noon to late evening hours and gradually slowed down during the night hours. Sometimes, these strong dust [...]