Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Earth Sciences
Seismic Efficiency during Volcanic Unrest: Insights from the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull Eruption
Published: 2026-02-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Volcanology
Identifying patterns in precursory signals may aid forecasting over month to year timescales. Here we examine the relationship between seismicity and ground deformation during unrest prior to the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption. We find that the ratio between seismic moment and horizontal GPS ground displacement is constant within two distinct phases, but with a step increase from one to the [...]
Sub-pixel mapping of disturbance and tree mortality dynamics from Sentinel-2 time series around the globe
Published: 2026-02-24
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Biogeochemistry, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Natural Resources and Conservation, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Elevated forest disturbances and excess tree mortality are increasingly reported worldwide. Yet existing assessments are either based on patchy terrestrial observations or on large-scale satellite products, which are limited in resolution to pixel-level, binary tree loss detection. This leaves a blind spot on fine-scale disturbances where only a few trees are declining in an otherwise intact [...]
Backstress governs transient postseismic creep in the continental lithospheric mantle
Published: 2026-02-22
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Mineral Physics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Understanding the physical processes that control how the continental lithospheric mantle responds to sudden stress changes during the earthquake cycle is essential for interpreting postseismic deformation and constraining the rheological behaviour of the mantle. Laboratory studies have revealed that long-range elastic interactions among dislocations generate backstresses that strongly influence [...]
Projected spatial reorganization of Köppen–Geiger climate zones under climate change and consequences for population and economic exposure
Published: 2026-02-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Sustainability
Climate change is expected to reorganize macro-climatic regimes at the planetary scale, with implications that extend beyond physical climate variables to the spatial configuration of human systems. While projected shifts in temperature and precipitation are well documented, their translation into categorical climate-regime transitions and associated socio-economic exposure remains insufficiently [...]
The Role of Flexure Margins in Controlling Open Fracture Distribution: Insights from Analogue Modeling of Orthogonal Rift and Pull-Apart Systems
Published: 2026-02-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure
Hydrocarbon exploration in Basement Fracture Reservoirs faces significant challenges in predicting fracture connectivity below seismic resolution. This study utilizes analogue sandbox modeling to compare the spatial distribution of open fractures in orthogonal normal fault systems and pull-apart basins. Methodological innovation is implemented through the use of a 1 mm thick gypsum layer atop 8 [...]
Basal Melt Dominance in Grounding-Line Dynamics: SAR Interferometry Reveals How Ocean Thermal Forcing Outpaces Tidal and Seasonal Controls in Antarctic Ice Shelves
Published: 2026-02-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The grounding line hinge position for the Fimbul Ice Shelf (Antarctic Peninsula) was determined using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Interferometric data from June 2023 through October 2024. The data were used to determine the hinge position over eight different time intervals (i.e., SAR Pairs) at an average spatial resolution of 20 meters. The Fimbul Ice Shelf area of interest (AOI) was defined [...]
Channel Change and Sediment Transport in the Puyallup River Watershed through 2022
Published: 2026-02-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
The Puyallup River drains a 990 square mile watershed in western Washington, with headwaters on the glacier-covered flanks of Mount Rainier. Major tributaries include the White, Carbon, and Mowich Rivers. In the levee-confined reaches of the lower watershed, loss of flood conveyance due to sand and gravel deposition has been a chronic issue. Over much of the 20th century, flood conveyance was [...]
Filling the monitoring gap: Aquatic ecosystem metabolism as a cost-effective, scalable tool for assessing marine carbon dioxide removal
Published: 2026-02-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) is an emerging climate mitigation solution increasingly recognized as necessary to supplement greenhouse gas emission reductions. Various mCDR methods, from biotic to abiotic measures, are being piloted, fueled by enthusiasm from governments and the private sector. As companies start to sell carbon credits, standards for monitoring, reporting, and verification [...]
Biotite/melt trace-element, lithium, and F-OH partitioning in silicate magmas
Published: 2026-02-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Inorganic Chemistry, Materials Chemistry, Other Earth Sciences
Biotite is a key hydrous silicate mineral in evolved magmatic systems, but its control on the behaviour of minor- and trace-elements, in particular Li, Nb, F and the REE is not well understood. Here, we quantify that control in sodic (per)alkaline H2O-saturated magmas with variable F-content through crystallisation experiments at 650–800◦C and 200 MPa total pressure, at log f O2 ≈ FMQ +1. [...]
Potential groundwater recharge during floods
Published: 2026-02-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering
Groundwater constitutes 30% of fresh water reserves on Earth. It is important as a source for drinking water and irrigation due to its good quality. For many aquifers in arid regions, long-term groundwater extraction has put in risk its sustainable use. Thus, it is relevant to understand and quantify processes that contribute to sustainable groundwater recharge. Most recharge to aquifers in [...]
Multi-Sensor Fusion of Sentinel-2 Imagery and ICESat-2 Satellite Laser Bathymetry for Benthic Habitat Classification in Key Largo, Florida Keys
Published: 2026-02-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Hydrology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Multispectral imagery has traditionally been used to classify benthic habitats; however, many challenges exist when using this method alone including the overlap of spectral signatures among habitat types, and the loss of signal due to water depth in coastal areas. The authors propose an innovative method that combines multispectral imagery from Sentinel-2 (Tile 17RNJ, January 30, 2024) with [...]
Compositional Reservoir Simulation Sensitivity Studies: Grid, Permeability, and Well Configuration Analysis Using OPM Flow
Published: 2026-02-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Other Earth Sciences, Petroleum Engineering
This technical report presents a comprehensive parametric sensitivity analysis of compositional reservoir simulation using the open-source OPM Flow simulator, extending previous gas injection feasibility studies (Padder, 2026) through three systematic investigations: (1) grid refinement analysis comparing coarse (7×7×3, 147 cells) and refined (14×14×6, 1,176 cells) spatial discretization under [...]
Two-thirds of global coastline affected by climate-driven saline groundwater intrusion by end of century, reaching far inland by 2300
Published: 2026-02-13
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Fresh groundwater is a vital resource along global coastlines where already over a third of the world’s population lives. Saline groundwater intrusion, driven by sea-level rise, groundwater abstraction, and reduced recharge, threatens the potability of coastal groundwater. Yet, the global potential for intrusion remains uncertain. Using a global groundwater model, we assess climate-driven saline [...]
Multiple-Well Monitoring Site Adjacent to the Midway- Sunset and Buena Vista Oil Fields, Kern County, California
Published: 2026-02-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Groundwater quality in and around oil fields in the Southern San Joaquin Valley is of interest to many California residents that rely heavily on groundwater for domestic, commercial, and agricultural use. To help assess the effects of historical oil-field activities and natural geologic sources on groundwater near the southwest margins of the Kern County Groundwater Subbasin, a multiple-well [...]
Shifting the Paradigm: Redefining the Chronostratigraphy of the Triassic Rewan Group, Bowen Basin, Australia
Published: 2026-02-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Tectonics and Structure
The Triassic continental Rewan Group in the northern Bowen Basin, Queensland, Australia, consisting of the Sagittarius Sandstone and the Arcadia Formation, preserves a key record of terrestrial environments and faunas that have been assumed to document recovery following the end‑Permian mass extinction (EPME). The Rewan Group accumulated in a retroarc foreland basin during the Hunter–Bowen [...]