Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

Stronger Atlantic hurricanes: Validating Elsner et al. (2008)

James B Elsner

Published: 2019-12-04
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Using satellite derived wind speed estimates from tropical cyclones over the 25-year period 1981--2006, Elsner et al. (2008) showed the strongest tropical cyclones getting stronger. They related the increasing intensity to rising ocean temperatures consistent with theory. Oceans continued to warm since that paper was published so the intensity of the strongest cyclones should have continued [...]

Estimation of surface and deep flows from sparse SSH observations of geostrophic ocean turbulence using Deep Learning

Georgy Manucharyan, Lia Siegelman, Patrice Klein

Published: 2019-12-04
Subjects: Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Satellite altimeters provide global observations of sea surface height (SSH) and present a unique dataset for advancing our theoretical understanding of upper ocean dynamics and monitoring its variability. Considering that mesoscale SSH patterns of 50--300 km in size can evolve on timescales comparable to or shorter than satellite return periods, it is challenging to accurately reconstruct the [...]

An interpreted language implementation of the Vaganov-Shashkin tree-ring proxy system model

Kevin Anchukaitis, Michael N Evans, Malcolm Hughes, et al.

Published: 2019-12-04
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

We describe the implementation of the Vaganov-Shashkin tree-ring growth model (VSM) in MATLAB. VSM, originally written in Fortran, mimics subdaily and daily resolution processes of cambial growth as a function of soil moisture, air temperature, and insolation, with environmental forcing modeled as the principle of limiting factors. The re-implementation in a high level interpreted language, [...]

Evaluation and comparison of a machine learning cloud identification algorithm for the SLSTR in polar regions

Caroline Poulsen, Ulrik Egede, Daniel Robbins, et al.

Published: 2019-12-04
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

A Feed Forward Neural Net (NN) approach to distinguish between clouds and the surface has been applied to the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer in polar regions. The masking algorithm covers the Arctic, Antarctic and regions typically classified as the cryosphere such as northern hemisphere permafrost. The mask has been trained using collocations with the CALIOP active lidar, which in [...]

Spatiotemporal correlation analysis of noise-derived seismic body waves with ocean wave climate and microseism sources

Lei Li, Pierre Boue, Lise Retailleau, et al.

Published: 2019-12-04
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Seismic signals can be extracted from ambient noise wavefields by the correlation technique. Recently, a prominent P‐type phase was observed from teleseismic noise correlations in the secondary microseism period band. The phase is named Pdmc in this paper, corresponding to its origin from the interference between the direct P waves transmitting through the deep mantle and the core (P and PKPab [...]

Local and remote influences on the heat content of Southern Ocean mode water formation regions.

Emma Joan Douglas Boland, Dan Jones, Andrew Meijers, et al.

Published: 2019-12-04
Subjects: Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The Southern Ocean (SO) is a crucial region for the global ocean uptake of heat and carbon. There are large uncertainties in the observations of fluxes of heat and carbon between the atmosphere and the ocean mixed layer, which leads to large uncertainties in the amount entering into the global overturning circulation. In order to better understand where and when fluxes of heat and momentum have [...]

The economic implications of using a truly preindustrial climate baseline

Dmitry Yumashev, Christopher M Brierley

Published: 2019-12-04
Subjects: Climate, Geography, Human Geography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences

The pervasive impacts of climate change can result in scientific decisions having unforeseen societal implications. To demonstrate this, we explore the global and regional economic implications of adopting an earlier preindustrial baseline of 1400-1800 for climate policy targets instead of the commonly used early industrial period of 1850-1900 for which we have observational data. Because of [...]

Bayesian Models for Deriving Biogeochemical Information from Satellite Ocean Color

Susanne Elizabeth Craig, Erdem M. Karaköylü

Published: 2019-12-04
Subjects: Life Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

In this study, we present Bayesian machine learning approaches to predict the spectral phytoplankton absorption coefficient - a proxy of phytoplankton biomass - from top of atmosphere measurements of ocean color. This presents a significant advance in ocean color research as it permits the bypassing of conventional atmospheric correction, which is notoriously challenging in optically complex [...]

Fossil fuel combustion is driving indoor CO2 toward levels harmful to human cognition

Kristopher Karnauskas, Shelly Miller, Anna Schapiro

Published: 2019-12-03
Subjects: Climate, Cognitive Neuroscience, Life Sciences, Neuroscience and Neurobiology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Human activities are elevating atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations to levels unprecedented in human history. The majority of anticipated impacts of anthropogenic CO2 emissions are mediated by climate warming. Recent experimental studies in the fields of indoor air quality and cognitive psychology and neuroscience, however, have revealed significant direct effects of indoor CO2 levels on [...]

A 2,000-year Bayesian NAO reconstruction from the Iberian Peninsula

Armand Hernández, Guiomar Sánchez-López, Sergi Pla-Rabes, et al.

Published: 2019-11-27
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major atmospheric mode that controls winter European climate variability because its strength and phase determine regional temperature, precipitation and storm tracks. The NAO spatial structure and associated climatic impacts over Europe are not stationary making it crucial to understanding its past evolution in order to improve the predictability of [...]

Wind-driven evolution of the North Pacific subpolar gyre over the last deglaciation

William Robert Gray, Robert C. Jnglin Wills, James W.B. Rae, et al.

Published: 2019-11-27
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

North Pacific atmospheric and oceanic circulations are key missing pieces in our understanding of the reorganisation of the global climate system since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Here, using a basin-wide compilation of planktic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes, we show that the North Pacific subpolar gyre extended ~3° further south during the LGM, consistent with sea surface temperature and [...]

Methane, Monsoons, and Modulation of Millennial-scale Climate

Kaustubh Thirumalai, Steven Clemens, Judson Partin

Published: 2019-11-20
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Speleology

Earths orbital geometry exerts a profound influence on climate by regulating changes in incoming solar radiation. Superimposed on orbitally-paced climate change, Pleistocene records reveal substantial millennial-scale variability characterized by trends, tipping points, and rapid swings. However, the extent to which orbital forcing modulates the amplitude and timing of these millennial variations [...]

Deep learning to infer eddy heat fluxes from sea surface height patterns of mesoscale turbulence

Tom George, Georgy Manucharyan, Andrew Thompson

Published: 2019-11-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics, Planetary Sciences

Oceans play a major role in Earths climate by storing and transporting heat via turbulent currents called mesoscale eddies. However, direct monitoring of eddy-driven heat fluxes is currently impossible because it requires simultaneous surface and subsurface observations of velocity and heat content, while only surface properties of mesoscale eddies can be comprehensively measured by satellites in [...]

Coherent streamflow variability in Monsoon Asia over the past eight centuries---links to oceanic drivers

Hung Tan Thai Nguyen, Sean W.D. Turner, Brendan Martin Buckley, et al.

Published: 2019-11-13
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The Monsoon Asia region is home to ten of the world’s biggest rivers, supporting the lives of 1.7 billion people who rely on streamflow for water, energy, and food. Yet, a synoptic understanding of multi-centennial streamflow variability for this region is lacking. Here we produce the first large scale streamflow reconstruction over Monsoon Asia (63 stations in 16 countries), using a novel [...]

Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Current are synchronized

Tsubasa Kohyama, Hiroaki Miura, Shoichiro Kido

Published: 2019-11-05
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Observational records show that sea surface temperatures along the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio tend to synchronize at decadal time scales. This synchronization, which we refer to as the Boundary Current Synchronization (BCS), is reproduced in global climate models with high spatial resolution. Both in observations and model simulations, BCS is associated with meridional migrations of the atmospheric [...]

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