Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Shifting velocity of temperature extremes under climate change
Published: 2019-08-19
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Rapid changes in climatic conditions threaten both socioeconomic and ecological systems, as these might not be able to adapt or to migrate at the same pace as that of global warming. In particular, an increase of weather and climate extremes can lead to increased stress on human and natural systems, and a tendency for serious adverse effects. Relying on the EURO-CORDEX simulations, we compare the [...]
High-resolution terrestrial climate, bioclimate and vegetation for the last 120,000 years
Published: 2019-08-14
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Paleobiology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The variability of climate has profoundly impacted a wide range of macroecological processes in the Late Quaternary. Our understanding of these has greatly benefited from palaeoclimate simulations, however, high-quality reconstructions of ecologically relevant climatic variables have been limited to a few selected time periods, thus impeding continuous time analyses. Here, we present a 0.5° [...]
A century of reduced ENSO variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly
Published: 2019-08-12
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Climate model simulations of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) behavior for the last millennium demonstrate interdecadal to centennial changes in ENSO variability that can arise purely from stochastic processes internal to the climate system. That said, the instrumental record of ENSO does not have the temporal coverage needed to capture the full range of natural ENSO variability observed in [...]
Bayesian calibration of the Mg/Ca paleothermometer in planktic foraminifera
Published: 2019-08-06
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Mg/Ca ratio of planktic foraminifera is a widely-used proxy for sea-surface temperature, but is also sensitive to other environmental factors. Previous work has relied on correcting Mg/Ca for non-thermal influences. Here, we develop a set of Bayesian models for Mg/Ca in four major planktic groups -- Globigerinoides ruber (including both pink and white chromotypes), Trilobatus sacculifer, [...]
Vertical Eddy Iron Fluxes Support Primary Production in the Open Southern Ocean
Published: 2019-08-04
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The primary productivity of the Southern Ocean ecosystem, and associated biological carbon pump, is limited by the availability of the micronutrient iron. Riverine sediments and atmospheric dust supply iron at the ocean margins, but in the vast open ocean, iron reaches phytoplankton primarily when iron-rich sub-surface waters enter the euphotic zone, linking vertical transport processes to [...]
Interannual, probabilistic prediction of water resources over Europe following the heatwave and drought 2018
Published: 2019-08-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The year 2018 was one of the hottest and driest years in Europe having a large impact on agriculture, ecosystems and society. The associated drought in central and northern Europe underpins the need for water resources predictions at the seasonal to interannual time scale. In this study, we propose a probabilistic, terrestrial prediction system including water resources utilizing the Terrestrial [...]
Analog forecasting of extreme-causing weather patterns using deep learning
Published: 2019-07-31
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences, Computational Engineering, Computer Sciences, Engineering, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models require ever-growing computing time/resources, but still, have difficulties with predicting weather extremes. Here we introduce a data-driven framework that is based on analog forecasting (prediction using past similar patterns) and employs a novel deep learning pattern-recognition technique (capsule neural networks, CapsNets) and impact-based [...]
Tornado damage ratings estimated with cumulative logistic regression
Published: 2019-07-18
Subjects: Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Empirical studies have led to improvements in evaluating and quantifying the tornado threat. However more work is needed to put the research onto a solid statistical foundation. Here the authors begin to build this foundation by introducing and then demonstrating a statistical model to estimate damage rating probabilities. A goal is to alert researchers to available statistical technology for [...]
The contribution of submesoscale over mesoscale eddy iron transport in the open Southern Ocean
Published: 2019-07-18
Subjects: Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In order to examine the roles of ocean dynamics in supplying iron, the limiting nutrient in the open Southern Ocean, to the surface where it can be effectively utilized for photosynthesis, we run a flat-bottom zonally re-entrant channel model configured to represent the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region and couple it to a full biogeochemical model. The model was forced with monthly varying [...]
Can barrier islands survive sea-level rise? Quantifying the relative role of tidal deltas and overwash deposition
Published: 2019-07-18
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Geology, Geomorphology, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology
Accepted open-access publication available at: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085524 Barrier island response to sea-level rise depends on their ability to transgress and move sediment onto and behind the barrier, either through flood-tidal delta deposition, or via overwash. Our understanding of these processes over decadal or longer timescales, however, is limited. Here we [...]
The Baltic TRANSCOAST approach – investigating shallow coasts as terrestrial-marine interface of water and matter fluxes
Published: 2019-07-16
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Biology, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Life Sciences, Marine Biology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Plant Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Plant Sciences, Soil Science
In Baltic TRANSCOAST we study the physical, biogeochemical, and biological processes at the land-ocean interface. The coastal zone is heavily impacted by various human activities as well as by geomorphological and climatic processes – on both the land and the sea side. Land-sea interactions at low lying coastal areas that are often dominated by peatlands, and are a common feature along the Baltic [...]
Assessing Climate Model Projections of Anthropogenic Warming Patterns
Published: 2019-07-16
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Projections of future anthropogenic climate change and their uncertainties are determined by analyzing large ensembles of numerical climate models. Since the late 1980s, transient climate models have projected a pronounced global warming, with relatively high warming in the Arctic and over land and low warming over the Southern Ocean. In general, confidence in climate model projections is based [...]
Southern Ocean Phytoplankton Blooms Observed by Biogeochemical Floats
Published: 2019-07-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The spring bloom in the Southern Ocean is the rapid-growth phase of the seasonal cycle in phytoplankton. Many previous studies have characterized the spring bloom using chlorophyll estimates from satellite ocean color observations. Assumptions regarding the chlorophyll-to-carbon ratio within phytoplankton and vertical structure of biogeochemical variables lead to uncertainty in satellite-based [...]
Heat distribution in the Southeast Pacific is only weakly sensitive to high-latitude heat flux and wind stress
Published: 2019-07-16
Subjects: Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Southern Ocean features regionally-varying ventilation pathways that transport heat and carbon from the surface ocean to the interior thermocline on timescales of decades to centuries, but the factors that control the distribution of heat along these pathways are not well understood. In this study, we use a global ocean state estimate (ECCOv4) to (1) define the recently ventilated interior [...]
The sensitivity of Southeast Pacific heat distribution to local and remote changes in ocean properties
Published: 2019-07-16
Subjects: Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Southern Ocean features ventilation pathways that transport surface waters into the subsurface thermocline on timescales of decades to centuries, sequestering anomalies of heat and carbon away from the atmosphere and thereby regulating the rate of surface warming. Despite its importance for climate sensitivity, the factors that control the distribution of heat along these pathways are not [...]