Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Atmospheric Sciences
Global identification of solid waste methane super emitters using hyperspectral satellites
Published: 2024-11-01
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Sciences
Solid waste disposal facilities are the third largest anthropogenic source of methane, and mitigating their emissions is crucial for addressing global climate change. We combine three high-resolution (30–60 m) hyperspectral satellite imagers (EMIT, EnMAP, and PRISMA) to quantify and monitor emissions from 38 disposal sites. These facilities are selected based on urban methane hot spots identified [...]
Evidence supporting a broader than previously thought influence of solar activity over Earth system’s processes. Discussion of a possible mechanism.
Published: 2024-09-08
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Tectonics and Structure, Volcanology
In this article, I show lines of evidence supporting a modulation of volcanic activity and some weather phenomena by solar wind conditions in the near-Earth environment. On a daily timescale, a correlation is found between the LP earthquake activity of Kilauea volcano, related to magma transport, and the Bx component of the interplanetary magnetic field as measured in the OMNI database for [...]
Signal-to-noise errors in early winter Euro-Atlantic predictions caused by weak ENSO teleconnections and pervasive North Atlantic jet biases
Published: 2024-09-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Long-range winter predictions over the Euro-Atlantic sector have demonstrated significant skill but suffer from systematic signal-to-noise errors. In this study we examine early winter seasonal predictability in 16 state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems. Models demonstrate skill in the hindcasts of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in early winter, which mostly projects onto the East [...]
On the link between weather regimes and energy shortfall during winter for 28 European countries
Published: 2024-08-23
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences
Increasing the proportion of energy generation from renewables is one of the necessary steps towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are highly weather sensitive, leading to a challenge when balancing energy demand and energy production. Identifying periods of high shortfall, here defined as when demand exceeds production by renewables, [...]
Dynamical controls on intensity-duration characteristics of heatwaves in an idealised model
Published: 2024-08-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
An idealised climate model is used to study the contribution of the atmospheric circulation to the intensity-duration characteristics of heatwaves. Using the observed correlation between near-surface temperature and lower tropospheric dry static energy (DSE), we study the energetics of the lower troposphere during heatwaves in the model. We observe that, remarkably, the intensity-duration [...]
More biomass burning aerosol is being advected westward over the southern tropical Atlantic since 2003
Published: 2024-07-26
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Each year, agricultural fires in southern continental Africa emit approximately one third of the world’s biomass burning aerosol. This is advected westward by the prevailing circulation winds over a subtropical stratocumulus cloud deck. The radiative effects from the aerosol and aerosol-cloud interactions impact regional circulations and hydrology. Here we examine how changes in the coupled [...]
Amplifying Exploration of Regional Climate Risks: Clustering Future Projections on Regionally Relevant Impact Drivers Not Emission Scenarios
Published: 2024-07-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Hydrology, Meteorology, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis
Climate impacts will continue to evolve over the coming decades, requiring regions worldwide to obtain actionable climate information. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to explore future conditions, but the variability of projections among GCMs complicates regional climate risk assessments. This variability in future projections is only partly explained by the often-used emission [...]
Satellite survey sheds new light on global solid waste methane emissions
Published: 2024-07-09
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Sciences
Anthropogenic methane emissions are the second most important contributor to climate change, and their rapid reductions could help decrease near-term warming. Solid waste emits methane through the decay of organic material, which amounts to about 10% of total anthropogenic methane emissions. Satellite instruments enable monitoring of strong methane hotspots, including many strongly emitting urban [...]
Increasingly seasonal jet stream drives stormy episodes with joint wind-flood risk in Great Britain
Published: 2024-07-03
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Hydrology, Multivariate Analysis
Ignoring a correlation between flooding and extreme winds underestimates risk to insurers or providers of critical infrastructure such as railways or electricity. We explore this potential underestimation for Northwest Europe, illustrated using Great Britain (GB), using an event-based analysis in regional 12 km UK Climate Projections (UKCP18, 1981-1999, 2061-2079 – RCP8.5). We derive a new [...]
How Will Precipitation Characteristics Associated with Tropical Cyclones in Diverse Synoptic Environments Respond to Climate Change?
Published: 2024-06-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) can produce large rainfall totals which lead to devastating flooding, loss of life, and significant damage to infrastructure. Here we focus on three North Atlantic TCs that impacted the southeastern United States: Hurricanes Floyd (1999), Matthew (2016), and Florence (2018). While these storms were impactful when they occurred, how might the impacts of similar [...]
Exploring coastal climate adaptation through storylines: Insights from Cyclone Idai in Beira, Mozambique
Published: 2024-06-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Hydraulic Engineering, Hydrology, Meteorology, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Water Resource Management
Coastal settlements, facing increasing flood risk from Tropical Cyclones (TCs) under climate change, need local and detailed climate information for effective adaptation. Analysis of historical events and their impacts provides such information. This study uses storylines to evaluate adaptation strategies, focusing on Cyclone Idai’s impact on Beira, Mozambique, under different climate [...]
The Overlooked Sub-Grid Air-Sea Flux in Climate Models
Published: 2024-05-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Oceanography
Understanding air-sea interaction is crucial for our ability to predict future states of the climate system, and to inform economic and societal decision-making. However, the representation of air-sea interactions in climate models is limited by structural errors associated with model resolution. Coarse-resolution climate models do not resolve small-scale structures in the air-sea state, which, [...]
Global mercury records from natural archives reveal ecosystem responses to changing atmospheric deposition
Published: 2024-05-15
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Geography, Physical and Environmental Geography
Global ecosystems face mercury contamination, yet long-term data is scarce, hindering understanding of ecosystem responses to atmospheric Hg input changes and policy evaluation. To address this gap, this study compiled a global mercury accumulation flux database using 221 cores from peat, lake, ice, and marine deposits. From 1700 to 2012, global averaged fluxes in peat, lake, ice, and marine [...]
Numerical simulation of the 2D trajectory of a non-buoyant fluid parcel under the influence of inertial oscillation
Published: 2024-04-24
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Oceanography
The trajectory of non-buoyant fluid parcels under the influence of inertial oscillations is a pivotal phenomenon in geophysical fluid dynamics, impacting processes such as tracer transport, pollutant dispersion, and the dynamics of marine organisms. This study presents a comprehensive numerical investigation of the two-dimensional trajectory of a non-buoyant fluid parcel subjected to inertial [...]
Moist Internally Cooled Convection
Published: 2024-04-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences
The response of clouds and moist-convective processes to heat-loss to space by long-wave radiative cooling is an important feedback in the earth's atmosphere. It is known that moist convection increases roughly in equilibrium with radiative cooling, an assumption often made in simplified models of the tropical atmosphere. In this study, we use an idealised 2D model of the atmosphere introduced by [...]