Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Atmospheric Sciences

Air Quality-Related Equity Implications of U.S. Decarbonization Policy

Paul D Picciano, Sebastian David Eastham, Minghao Qiu, et al.

Published: 2022-10-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Sustainability

We quantify potential air pollution exposure reductions resulting from U.S. federal carbon policy, and consider the implications of resulting health benefits for exposure disparities across racial/ethnic groups. We assess reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of 50% in 2030 relative to 2005 levels, comparable in magnitude to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. Using energy-economic scenarios [...]

North African dust absorbs less solar radiation than estimated by models and remote-sensing retrievals

Adeyemi A Adebiyi, Yue Huang, Bjørn H. Samset, et al.

Published: 2022-10-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate

Desert dust accounts for a large fraction of shortwave radiation absorbed by aerosols, which adds to the climate warming produced by greenhouse gases. However, it remains uncertain exactly how much shortwave radiation dust absorbs. We leverage in-situ measurements of dust single-scattering albedo to constrain absorption at mid-visible wavelength by North African dust, which accounts for [...]

Skilful forecasts of summer rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin from November

Philip Bett, Nick Dunstone, Nicola Golding, et al.

Published: 2022-10-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate

Variability in the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) brings the risk of heavy flooding or drought to the Yangtze River Basin, with potentially devastating impacts. Early forecasts of the likelihood of enhanced or reduced monsoon rainfall can enable better management of water and hydropower resources by decision-makers, supporting livelihoods and major economic and population centres across Eastern [...]

Characteristics of Dust Storms Generated by Trapped Waves in the Lee of Mountains

Amato Tomas Evan, William Porter, Rachel Clemsha, et al.

Published: 2022-09-29
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

Dust storms are ubiquitous in the Earth's atmosphere, yet the physical processes underlying dust emission and subsequent transport are not always understood, in-part due to the wide variety of meteorological processes that can generate high winds and dust. Here we use in-situ measurements and numerical modeling to demonstrate that vertically trapped atmospheric waves generated by air flowing over [...]

Rapid estimation of climate-air quality interactions in integrated assessment using a response surface model

Sebastian David Eastham, Erwan Monier, Daniel Rothenberg, et al.

Published: 2022-09-15
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Public Health, Environmental Studies

Air quality and climate change are substantial and linked sustainability challenges, and there is a need for improved tools to assess the implications of addressing them in combination. High-fidelity chemistry-climate simulations can capture combined climate-air quality responses to policy change, but computational cost has prevented integration of accurate air quality impacts into integrated [...]

Unified theoretical framework for mixing state of black carbon

Jiandong Wang, Jiaping Wang, Runlong Cai, et al.

Published: 2022-08-31
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences

Black carbon (BC) plays an important role in the climate system due to its strong warming effect, yet the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain due to the complex mixing state of aerosols. Here we build a unified theoretical framework to describe BC’s mixing states, linking dynamic processes to BC coating thickness distribution, and show its self-similarity for sites in diverse [...]

Thermal forcing expected to modulate convection in a mechanically forced stationary wave

William R. Boos, Salvatore Pascale

Published: 2022-08-16
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

This is a reply to the comment by Lofverstrom and Thirumalai on our publication in Nature. That comment and this reply underwent peer review at Nature, and Nature declined to publish the exchange

Distinct roles of cyclones and anticyclones in setting the midwinter minimum of the North Pacific eddy activity. Part II: Eulerian eddy statistics and energetics

Satoru Okajima, Hisashi Nakamura, Yohai Kaspi

Published: 2022-08-14
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences

The characteristics and dynamics of midlatitude storm-tracks have been long investigated. Nevertheless, our understandings of the storm-tracks, especially the midwinter minimum of the North Pacific storm-track activity, are still limited, partly because Eulerian eddy statistics are incapable of separating cyclonic and anticyclonic contributions. Here we investigate the detailed seasonal evolution [...]

A Technical Overview of the North Carolina ECONet

Sheila M. Saia, Sean P. Heuser, Myleigh D. Neill, et al.

Published: 2022-07-20
Subjects: Agricultural Science, Agriculture, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Education, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Public Health, Environmental Sciences, Forest Management, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Plant Sciences

Regional weather networks–also referred to as mesonets–are imperative for filling in the spatial and temporal data gaps between nationally supported weather stations. The North Carolina Environment and Climate Observing Network (ECONet) fills this regional role; it is a mesoscale network of 44 (as of 2022) automated stations collecting 12 environmental variables every minute across North [...]

Single-blind validation of space-based point-source methane emissions detection and quantification

Evan David Sherwin, Jeffrey S Rutherford, Yuanlei Chen, et al.

Published: 2022-07-14
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences

Satellites are increasingly seen as a tool for identifying large greenhouse gas point sources for mitigation, but independent verification of satellite performance is needed for acceptance and use by policy makers and stakeholders. We conduct to our knowledge the first single-blind controlled methane release testing of satellite-based methane emissions detection and quantification, with five [...]

Advecting Superspecies: Efficiently Modeling Transport of Organic Aerosol with a Mass-Conserving Dimensionality Reduction Method

Patrick Obin Sturm, Astrid Manders, Ruud Janssen, et al.

Published: 2022-06-26
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The chemical transport model LOTOS-EUROS uses a volatility basis set (VBS) approach to represent the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) in the atmosphere. Inclusion of the VBS approximately doubles the dimensionality of LOTOS-EUROS and slows computation of the advection operator by a factor of two. This complexity limits SOA representation in operational forecasts. We develop a [...]

Potential for Perceived Failure of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Deployment

Patrick W Keys, Elizabeth A Barnes, Noah S Diffenbaugh, et al.

Published: 2022-06-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Sustainability

As anthropogenic activities warm the Earth, the fundamental solution of reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains elusive. Given this mitigation gap, global warming may lead to intolerable climate changes as adaptive capacity is exceeded. Thus, there is emerging interest in solar radiation modification, which is the process of deliberately increasing Earth's albedo to cool the planet. [...]

Robust Probabilities of Detection and Quantification Uncertainty for Aerial Methane Detection: Examples for Three Airborne Technologies

Bradley Mark Conrad, David R Tyner, Matthew R Johnson

Published: 2022-06-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Mechanical Engineering, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models

Thorough characterization of probabilities of detection (POD) and quantification uncertainties is fundamentally important to understand the place of aerial measurement technologies in alternative means of emission limitation (AMEL) or alternate fugitive emissions management programs (Alt-FEMP); monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) efforts; and surveys designed to support [...]

Validation of glacial-interglacial rainfall variations in southwest Sulawesi using Mg/Ca and δ18O in speleothems

Alena K Kimbrough, Michael Gagan, Gavin Dunbar, et al.

Published: 2022-06-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Hydrology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Speleology

Speleothem δ18O is widely used as a proxy for rainfall amount in the tropics on glacial-interglacial to interannual scales. However, uncertainties in the interpretation of this renowned proxy pose a vexing problem in tropical paleoclimatology. Here, we present paired measurements of Mg/Ca and δ18O for multiple stalagmites from southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia, that that confirm changes in rainfall [...]

Sub-seasonal Prediction of Central European Summer Heatwaves with Linear and Random Forest Machine Learning Models

Elizabeth Weirich Benet, Maria Pyrina, Bernat Jiménez Esteve, et al.

Published: 2022-06-02
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences

Heatwaves are extreme near-surface temperature events that can have substantial impacts on ecosystems and society. Early Warning Systems help to reduce these impacts by helping communities prepare for hazardous climate-related events. However, state-of-the-art prediction systems can often not make accurate forecasts of heatwaves more than two weeks in advance, which are required for advance [...]

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