Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Atmospheric Sciences

Global identification of solid waste methane super emitters using hyperspectral satellites

Xin Zhang, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Javier Roger, et al.

Published: 2024-11-01
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Sciences

Solid waste is the third largest source of anthropogenic methane and mitigating emissions is crucial for addressing climate change. We combine three high-resolution (30–60 m) hyperspectral satellite imagers (EMIT, EnMAP, and PRISMA) to quantify emissions from 38 strongly-emitting disposal sites across worldwide urban methane hotspots. The imagers give consistent emission estimates, with EMIT and [...]

Evidence supporting a broader than previously thought influence of solar activity over Earth system’s processes. Discussion of a possible mechanism.

Héctor Sacristán

Published: 2024-09-08
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Earth Sciences, Tectonics and Structure, Volcanology

In this article, I show lines of evidence supporting a modulation of volcanic activity and some weather phenomena by solar wind conditions in the near-Earth environment. On a daily timescale, a correlation is found between the LP earthquake activity of Kilauea volcano, related to magma transport, and the Bx component of the interplanetary magnetic field as measured in the OMNI database for [...]

Signal-to-noise errors in early winter Euro-Atlantic predictions caused by weak ENSO teleconnections and pervasive North Atlantic jet biases

Christopher O'Reilly

Published: 2024-09-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Long-range winter predictions over the Euro-Atlantic sector have demonstrated significant skill but suffer from systematic signal-to-noise errors. In this study we examine early winter seasonal predictability in 16 state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems. Models demonstrate skill in the hindcasts of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in early winter, which mostly projects onto the East [...]

On the link between weather regimes and energy shortfall during winter for 28 European countries

Emmanuel Rouges, Marlene Kretschmer, Theodore G Shepherd

Published: 2024-08-23
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences

Increasing the proportion of energy generation from renewables is one of the necessary steps towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are highly weather sensitive, leading to a challenge when balancing energy demand and energy production. Identifying periods of high shortfall, here defined as when demand exceeds production by renewables, [...]

Dynamical controls on intensity-duration characteristics of heatwaves in an idealised model

Abel Shibu, Joy Merwin Monteiro

Published: 2024-08-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate

An idealised climate model is used to study the contribution of the atmospheric circulation to the intensity-duration characteristics of heatwaves. Using the observed correlation between near-surface temperature and lower tropospheric dry static energy (DSE), we study the energetics of the lower troposphere during heatwaves in the model. We observe that, remarkably, the intensity-duration [...]

More biomass burning aerosol is being advected westward over the southern tropical Atlantic since 2003

Tyler Tatro, Paquita Zuidema

Published: 2024-07-26
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate

Each year, agricultural fires in southern continental Africa emit approximately one third of the world’s biomass burning aerosol. This is advected westward by the prevailing circulation winds over a subtropical stratocumulus cloud deck. The radiative effects from the aerosol and aerosol-cloud interactions impact regional circulations and hydrology. Here we examine how concurrent changes in the [...]

Amplifying Exploration of Regional Climate Risks: Clustering Future Projections on Regionally Relevant Impact Drivers Not Emission Scenarios

Franciscus Eduard Buskop, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Bart van den Hurk

Published: 2024-07-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Hydrology, Meteorology, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis

Climate impacts will continue to evolve over the coming decades, requiring regions worldwide to obtain actionable climate information. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to explore future conditions, but the variability of projections among GCMs complicates regional climate risk assessments. This variability in future projections is only partly explained by the often-used emission [...]

Satellite survey sheds new light on global solid waste methane emissions

Matthieu Dogniaux, Joannes D. Maasakkers, Marianne Girard, et al.

Published: 2024-07-09
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Sciences

Anthropogenic methane emissions are the second most important contributor to climate change, and their rapid reductions could help decrease near-term warming. Solid waste emits methane through the decay of organic material, which amounts to about 10% of total anthropogenic methane emissions. Satellite instruments enable monitoring of strong methane hotspots, including many strongly emitting urban [...]

Increasingly seasonal jet stream raises risk of co-occurring flooding and extreme wind in Great Britain

John Hillier, Hannah Bloomfield, Colin Manning, et al.

Published: 2024-07-03
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Hydrology, Multivariate Analysis

Insurers and risk managers for critical infrastructure such as transport or power networks typically do not account for flooding and extreme winds happening at the same time in their quantitative risk assessments. We explore this potentially critical underestimation of risk from these co-occurring hazards through studying events using the regional 12 km resolution UK Climate Projections for a [...]

How Will Precipitation Characteristics Associated with Tropical Cyclones in Diverse Synoptic Environments Respond to Climate Change?

Katherine E Hollinger Beatty, Gary M. Lackmann, Jared H. Bowden

Published: 2024-06-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) can produce large rainfall totals which lead to devastating flooding, loss of life, and significant damage to infrastructure. Here we focus on three North Atlantic TCs that impacted the southeastern United States: Hurricanes Floyd (1999), Matthew (2016), and Florence (2018). While these storms were impactful when they occurred, how might the impacts of similar [...]

Exploring coastal climate adaptation through storylines: Insights from Cyclone Idai in Beira, Mozambique

Henrique Moreno Dumont Goulart, Karin van der Wiel, Bart van den Hurk, et al.

Published: 2024-06-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Hydraulic Engineering, Hydrology, Meteorology, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Water Resource Management

Coastal settlements, facing increasing flood risk from Tropical Cyclones (TCs) under climate change, need local and detailed climate information for effective adaptation. Analysis of historical events and their impacts provides such information. This study uses storylines to evaluate adaptation strategies, focusing on Cyclone Idai’s impact on Beira, Mozambique, under different climate [...]

The Overlooked Sub-Grid Air-Sea Flux in Climate Models

Julius Busecke, Dhruv Balwada, Paige Martin`, et al.

Published: 2024-05-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Oceanography

Understanding air-sea interaction is crucial for our ability to predict future states of the climate system, and to inform economic and societal decision-making. However, the representation of air-sea interactions in climate models is limited by structural errors associated with model resolution. Coarse-resolution climate models do not resolve small-scale structures in the air-sea state, which, [...]

Mercury records from natural archives reveal ecosystem responses to changing atmospheric deposition

Qinqin Chen, Qingru Wu, Yuying Cui, et al.

Published: 2024-05-15
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Geography, Physical and Environmental Geography

Global ecosystems face mercury contamination, yet long-term data is scarce, hindering understanding of ecosystem responses to atmospheric Hg input changes. To bridge data gap and assess ecosystem responses, we compiled and compared a mercury accumulation database from peat, lake, ice, and marine deposits worldwide with atmospheric mercury deposition modeled by GEOS-Chem, focusing on trends, [...]

Numerical simulation of the 2D trajectory of a non-buoyant fluid parcel under the influence of inertial oscillation

Sandy Hardian Susanto Herho, Iwan Pramesti Anwar, Katarina Evelyn Permata Herho, et al.

Published: 2024-04-24
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Oceanography

The trajectory of non-buoyant fluid parcels under the influence of inertial oscillations is a pivotal phenomenon in geophysical fluid dynamics, impacting processes such as tracer transport, pollutant dispersion, and the dynamics of marine organisms. This study presents a comprehensive numerical investigation of the two-dimensional trajectory of a non-buoyant fluid parcel subjected to inertial [...]

Moist convective scaling: Insights from an idealised model

Lokahith Narendra Agasthya, Caroline Muller, Mathis Cheve

Published: 2024-04-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences

The response of clouds and moist-convective processes to heat-loss to space by long-wave radiative cooling is an important feedback in the earth's atmosphere. It is known that moist convection increases roughly in equilibrium with radiative cooling, an assumption often made in simplified models of the tropical atmosphere. In this study, we use an idealised 2D model of the atmosphere introduced by [...]

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