Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Atmospheric Sciences
Coherent subsiding structures in large eddy simulations of atmospheric boundary layers
Published: 2023-07-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Coherent structures are characterized in high-resolution simulations of three atmospheric boundary layers: dry convection, marine cumulus, and stratocumulus. Based on radioactive-decaying tracers emitted at different altitudes (surface, top of well-mixed layer, and cloud top), a object-oriented methodology allows individual characterization of coherent tridimensional plumes within the flow. [...]
Last Glacial Maximum pattern effects reduce climate sensitivity estimates
Published: 2023-07-14
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Here, we show that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provides a stronger constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the global warming from increasing greenhouse gases, after accounting for temperature patterns. Feedbacks governing ECS depend on spatial patterns of surface temperature (“pattern effects”); hence, using the LGM to constrain future warming requires quantifying how [...]
A gridded inventory of annual 2012-2018 U.S. anthropogenic methane emissions
Published: 2023-06-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences
Nationally reported greenhouse gas inventories are a core component of the Paris Agreement transparency framework. Comparisons with emission estimates derived from atmospheric observations help identify improvements to reduce uncertainties and increase confidence in reported values. To facilitate comparisons over the contiguous United States, we present a 0.1°×0.1° gridded inventory of annual [...]
Global 1km Land Surface Parameters for Kilometer-Scale Earth System Modeling
Published: 2023-06-28
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Climate, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Earth system models (ESMs) are progressively advancing towards the kilometer scale (k-scale). However, the surface parameters for Land Surface Models (LSMs) within ESMs running at the k-scale are typically derived from coarse resolution and outdated datasets. This study aims to develop a new set of global land surface parameters with a resolution of 1 km for multiple years from 2001 to 2020, [...]
Single-blind test of nine methane-sensing satellite systems from three continents
Published: 2023-06-28
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Other Civil and Environmental Engineering
Satellite-based remote sensing enables detection and mitigation of large point sources of climate-warming methane. These satellites will have the greatest impact if stakeholders have a clear-eyed assessment of their capabilities. We performed a single-blind test of nine methane-sensing satellites from three continents and five countries, including both commercial and government satellites. Over [...]
Projected Changes in Hot, Dry and Compound Hot-Dry Extremes over Global Land Regions
Published: 2023-06-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The impacts of hot, dry and compound hot-dry extremes are significant for societies, economies and ecosystems worldwide. Such events therefore need to be assessed in the light of anthropogenic climate change so that suitable adaptation measures can be implemented by governments and stakeholders. Here we show a comprehensive analysis of hot, dry and compound hot-dry extremes over global land [...]
Assessing Decadal Variability of Subseasonal Forecasts of Opportunity using Explainable AI
Published: 2023-06-07
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Identifying predictable states of the climate system allows for enhanced prediction skill on the generally low-skill subseasonal timescale via forecasts with higher confidence and accuracy, known as forecasts of opportunity. This study takes a neural network approach to explore decadal variability of subseasonal predictability, particularly during forecasts of opportunity. Specifically, this work [...]
Exponential life-threatening rise of the global temperature
Published: 2023-05-23
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Nature and Society Relations
Global temperatures are rising. This paper demonstrates for the first time that the global temperature increase has not been linear but is exponential with a doubling time of about 25 years. Both the amount of carbon dioxide produced by the combustion of fossil fuels and the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have also risen exponentially, with a similar doubling time. The exponential [...]
Strategic Logic of Unilateral Climate Intervention
Published: 2023-05-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, International and Area Studies, Other Statistics and Probability, Risk Analysis
Climate change and unabated greenhouse gas emissions are increasing the possibility that the world will turn to climate intervention to curb ever-increasing global temperatures. To date, most work on this topic has imagined that an international organization like the United Nations or an international coalition of states will synchronize their efforts to deploy climate intervention at ideal [...]
Evaluating the spatial patterns of NOx emissions in polluted areas with TROPOMI NO2
Published: 2023-05-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Monitoring
Satellite datasets are increasingly used to evaluate NOx emissions inventories. Such studies often require the use of a chemical transport model or a complex statistical framework to account for meteorological factors that can complicate the comparison. Here, we apply a novel method to compare inventory-based emissions directly to Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) NO2 data without a [...]
Ammonia emissions from a dairy housing and a wastewater treatment plant quantified with an inverse dispersion method accounting for deposition loss
Published: 2023-04-17
Subjects: Agriculture, Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Engineering
Ammonia (NH3) emissions negatively impact air, soil, and water quality, hence human health and biodiversity. Significant emissions, including the largest sources, originate from single or multiple structures, such as livestock facilities and wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). The inverse dispersion method (IDM) is effective in measuring total emissions from such [...]
Assessment of simulations of a polar low with the Canadian Regional Climate Model
Published: 2023-04-14
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology
Polar lows (PLs), which are intense maritime polar mesoscale cyclones, are associated with severe weather conditions. Due to their small size and rapid development, PL forecasting remains a challenge. Convection-permitting models are adequate to forecast PLs since, compared to coarser models, they provide a better representation of convection as well as surface and near-surface processes. A PL [...]
High-resolution methane mapping with the EnMAP satellite imaging spectroscopy mission
Published: 2023-04-06
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Monitoring
Methane mitigation from anthropogenic sources such as fossil fuels and waste management has been found as one of the most promising strategies to curb global warming in the near future. Satellite-based imaging spectrometers have demonstrated to be well-suited to detect and quantify these emissions at high spatial resolution. These instruments produce so-called hyperspectral data cubes of the [...]
Ground ozone rise caused by the larger emission reduction of nitrogen oxides than volatile organic components
Published: 2023-04-05
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences
Ground-level ozone (O3) pollution has shifted from being a scientific topic to a governmental imperative in China. We analyze the mechanism for the O3 rise observed in Shanghai during the lockdown in the spread of COVID-19 in 2022 by combining utilizing ground-level observed data, an observation-based model, and a chemical transport model. We find that the increase in O3 can be mainly [...]
Did hydroclimate conditions contribute to the political dynamics of Majapahit? A preliminary analysis
Published: 2023-02-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geography, Human Geography, Nature and Society Relations, Physical and Environmental Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Majapahit was the largest Hindu-Buddhist empire that ruled the Indonesian archipelago from the late 13th to mid-16th centuries CE. Only now there is still a lot of history surrounding the Majapahit era that has yet to be revealed. One is about how environmental factors influenced the political dynamics at that time. This study tries to discuss the influence of hydroclimate regimes using the Paleo [...]