Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Atmospheric Sciences
Advecting Superspecies: Efficiently Modeling Transport of Organic Aerosol with a Mass-Conserving Dimensionality Reduction Method
Published: 2022-06-26
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The chemical transport model LOTOS-EUROS uses a volatility basis set (VBS) approach to represent the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) in the atmosphere. Inclusion of the VBS approximately doubles the dimensionality of LOTOS-EUROS and slows computation of the advection operator by a factor of two. This complexity limits SOA representation in operational forecasts. We develop a [...]
Potential for Perceived Failure of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Deployment
Published: 2022-06-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Sustainability
As anthropogenic activities warm the Earth, the fundamental solution of reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains elusive. Given this mitigation gap, global warming may lead to intolerable climate changes as adaptive capacity is exceeded. Thus, there is emerging interest in solar radiation modification, which is the process of deliberately increasing Earth's albedo to cool the planet. [...]
Robust Probabilities of Detection and Quantification Uncertainty for Aerial Methane Detection: Examples for Three Airborne Technologies
Published: 2022-06-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Mechanical Engineering, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models
Thorough characterization of probabilities of detection (POD) and quantification uncertainties is fundamentally important to understand the place of aerial measurement technologies in alternative means of emission limitation (AMEL) or alternate fugitive emissions management programs (Alt-FEMP); monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) efforts; and surveys designed to support [...]
Validation of glacial-interglacial rainfall variations in southwest Sulawesi using Mg/Ca and δ18O in speleothems
Published: 2022-06-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Hydrology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Speleology
The final version of this article is now published with Communications. Earth and Environment. To view this open access article, please use the Published Article DOI. Speleothem δ18O is widely used as a proxy for rainfall amount in the tropics on glacial-interglacial to interannual scales. However, uncertainties in the interpretation of this renowned proxy pose a vexing problem in tropical [...]
Sub-seasonal Prediction of Central European Summer Heatwaves with Linear and Random Forest Machine Learning Models
Published: 2022-06-02
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences
Heatwaves are extreme near-surface temperature events that can have substantial impacts on ecosystems and society. Early Warning Systems help to reduce these impacts by helping communities prepare for hazardous climate-related events. However, state-of-the-art prediction systems can often not make accurate forecasts of heatwaves more than two weeks in advance, which are required for advance [...]
Efficient Probabilistic Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification of Hurricane Surge and Inundation
Published: 2022-05-31
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study proposes a methodology for efficient probabilistic prediction of near-landfall hurricane-driven storm surge, tide, and inundation. We perturb forecasts of hurricane track, intensity, and size according to quasi-random low-discrepancy Korobov sequences of historical forecast errors with assumed Gaussian and uniform statistical distributions. These perturbations are run in an ensemble of [...]
Development of a machine learning approach for local-scale ozone and PM2.5 forecasting: Application to multiple AQS sites in the Pacific Northwest
Published: 2022-05-24
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences
A machine learning (ML) based modeling framework has been successfully used to provide operational forecasts of O3 at Kennewick, WA. This paper shows its performance when applied to other observation locations to predict O3 and PM2.5 concentrations. The 10-time, 10-fold cross-validation method was used to evaluate the model performance in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Similar to Kennewick, ML1 [...]
Automated machine learning to evaluate the information content of tropospheric trace gas columns for fine particle estimates over India: a modeling testbed
Published: 2022-03-20
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Atmospheric Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
India is largely devoid of high-quality and reliable on-the-ground measurements of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Ground-level PM2.5 concentrations are estimated from publicly available satellite Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) products combined with other information. Prior research has largely overlooked the possibility of gaining additional accuracy and insights into the sources of PM using [...]
Complex multi-source emissions quantification results for the PoMELO vehicle measurement system, test results from the CSU METEC facility
Published: 2022-03-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering, Other Engineering, Petroleum Engineering, Systems Engineering
Methane emissions from oil and gas sites are often characterized by mixed plumes from multiple sources in close proximity. This presents a challenge for screening methods that rely on emissions quantification to direct and prioritize follow-up inspections. Here, we present results from experiments evaluating mixed-source quantifications using the University of Calgary Portable Methane Leak [...]
2021 North American Heatwave Amplified by Climate-Change-Driven Nonlinear Interactions
Published: 2022-02-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Heat conditions in North America in summer 2021 exceeded prior heatwaves by margins many would have considered impossible under current climate conditions. Associated severe impacts highlight the need for understanding the heatwave’s physical drivers and relations to climate change, to improve the projection and prediction of future extreme heat risks. Here, we find that slow- and fast-moving [...]
Vertically Resolved Convective/Stratiform Echo Type Identification and Convectivity Retrieval for Vertically Pointing Radars
Published: 2022-01-27
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Using data from the airborne HIAPER Cloud Radar (HCR), a partitioning algorithm (ECCO-V) that provides vertically resolved convectivity and convective vs stratiform radar echo classification is developed for vertically pointing radars. The algorithm is based on the calculation of reflectivity and radial velocity texture fields that measure the horizontal homogeneity of cloud and precipitation [...]
Two decades of changing anthropogenic mercury emissions in Australia: inventory development, trends, and atmospheric implications
Published: 2022-01-27
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeochemistry, Environmental Health and Protection
Mercury is a toxic environmental pollutant emitted into the atmosphere by both natural and anthropogenic sources. In Australia, previous estimates of anthropogenic mercury emissions differ by up to a factor of three, with existing inventories either outdated or inaccurate and several lacking Australia-specific input data. Here, we develop a twenty-year inventory of Australian anthropogenic [...]
Using satellites to uncover large methane emissions from landfills
Published: 2021-12-28
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences
As atmospheric methane concentrations increase at record pace, it is critical to identify individual emission sources with high potential for mitigation. Landfills are responsible for large methane emissions that can be readily abated but have been sparsely observed. Here we leverage the synergy between satellite instruments with different spatiotemporal coverage and resolution to detect and [...]
A continuous vertically resolved ozone dataset from the fusion of chemistry climate models with observations using a Bayesian neural network
Published: 2021-12-14
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences
Continuous historic datasets of vertically resolved stratospheric ozone, support the case for ozone recovery, are necessary for the running of offline models and increase understanding of the impacts of ozone on the wider atmospheric system. Vertically resolved ozone datasets are typically constructed from multiple satellite, sonde and ground-based measurements that do not provide continuous [...]
Geographically-resolved social cost of anthropogenic emissions accounting for both direct and climate-mediated effects
Published: 2021-11-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Sciences, Physical and Environmental Geography, Sustainability
The magnitude and distribution of physical and societal impacts from long-lived greenhouse gases are insensitive to the emission source location; the same is not true for major co-emitted short-lived pollutants like aerosols. Here we combine novel global climate model simulations with established response functions to show that identical aerosols emitted from different regions (Brazil, China, [...]