Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Atmospheric Sciences
Weakening of the Indian Ocean Dipole in the mid-Holocene due to the mean oceanic climatology change
Published: 2023-01-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is one of the leading modes of interannual climate variability in the tropical Indian Ocean (IO). Paleoclimate provides real climate scenarios to examine IOD behaviors and the linkage to basic states. Based on 18 models from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 3 and 4 (PMIP 3/4), the IOD change from the preindustrial period to mid-Holocene is [...]
The Dry Sky: Futures for Humanity’s Modification of the Atmospheric Water Cycle
Published: 2022-12-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Fresh Water Studies, Hydrology, Meteorology, Natural Resource Economics, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Nature and Society Relations, Sustainability, Water Resource Management
Humanity is modifying the atmospheric water cycle, via land use, climate change, air pollution, and weather modification. Given the implications of this, we present a theoretical framing of atmospheric water as an economic good. Historically, atmospheric water was tacitly considered a ‘public good’ since it was neither actively consumed (rival) nor controlled (exclusive). However, given [...]
Air Quality-Related Equity Implications of U.S. Decarbonization Policy
Published: 2022-10-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Sustainability
We quantify potential air pollution exposure reductions resulting from U.S. federal carbon policy, and consider the implications of resulting health benefits for exposure disparities across racial/ethnic groups. We assess reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of 50% in 2030 relative to 2005 levels, comparable in magnitude to the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. Using energy-economic scenarios [...]
North African dust absorbs less solar radiation than estimated by models and remote-sensing retrievals
Published: 2022-10-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Desert dust accounts for a large fraction of shortwave radiation absorbed by aerosols, which adds to the climate warming produced by greenhouse gases. However, it remains uncertain exactly how much shortwave radiation dust absorbs. We leverage in-situ measurements of dust single-scattering albedo to constrain absorption at mid-visible wavelength by North African dust, which accounts for [...]
Skilful forecasts of summer rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin from November
Published: 2022-10-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Variability in the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) brings the risk of heavy flooding or drought to the Yangtze River Basin, with potentially devastating impacts. Early forecasts of the likelihood of enhanced or reduced monsoon rainfall can enable better management of water and hydropower resources by decision-makers, supporting livelihoods and major economic and population centres across Eastern [...]
Characteristics of Dust Storms Generated by Trapped Waves in the Lee of Mountains
Published: 2022-09-29
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Dust storms are ubiquitous in the Earth's atmosphere, yet the physical processes underlying dust emission and subsequent transport are not always understood, in-part due to the wide variety of meteorological processes that can generate high winds and dust. Here we use in-situ measurements and numerical modeling to demonstrate that vertically trapped atmospheric waves generated by air flowing over [...]
Rapid estimation of climate-air quality interactions in integrated assessment using a response surface model
Published: 2022-09-15
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Public Health, Environmental Studies
Air quality and climate change are substantial and linked sustainability challenges, and there is a need for improved tools to assess the implications of addressing them in combination. High-fidelity chemistry-climate simulations can capture combined climate-air quality responses to policy change, but computational cost has prevented integration of accurate air quality impacts into integrated [...]
Unified theoretical framework for mixing state of black carbon
Published: 2022-08-31
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences
Black carbon (BC) plays an important role in the climate system due to its strong warming effect, yet the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain due to the complex mixing state of aerosols. Here we build a unified theoretical framework to describe BC’s mixing states, linking dynamic processes to BC coating thickness distribution, and show its self-similarity for sites in diverse [...]
Thermal forcing expected to modulate convection in a mechanically forced stationary wave
Published: 2022-08-16
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This is a reply to the comment by Lofverstrom and Thirumalai on our publication in Nature. That comment and this reply underwent peer review at Nature, and Nature declined to publish the exchange
Distinct roles of cyclones and anticyclones in setting the midwinter minimum of the North Pacific eddy activity. Part II: Eulerian eddy statistics and energetics
Published: 2022-08-14
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences
The characteristics and dynamics of midlatitude storm-tracks have been long investigated. Nevertheless, our understandings of the storm-tracks, especially the midwinter minimum of the North Pacific storm-track activity, are still limited, partly because Eulerian eddy statistics are incapable of separating cyclonic and anticyclonic contributions. Here we investigate the detailed seasonal evolution [...]
A Technical Overview of the North Carolina ECONet
Published: 2022-07-20
Subjects: Agricultural Science, Agriculture, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Education, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Public Health, Environmental Sciences, Forest Management, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Plant Sciences
Regional weather networks–also referred to as mesonets–are imperative for filling in the spatial and temporal data gaps between nationally supported weather stations. The North Carolina Environment and Climate Observing Network (ECONet) fills this regional role; it is a mesoscale network of 44 (as of 2023) automated stations collecting 12 environmental variables every minute across North [...]
Single-blind validation of space-based point-source methane emissions detection and quantification
Published: 2022-07-14
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences
Satellites are increasingly seen as a tool for identifying large greenhouse gas point sources for mitigation, but independent verification of satellite performance is needed for acceptance and use by policy makers and stakeholders. We conduct to our knowledge the first single-blind controlled methane release testing of satellite-based methane emissions detection and quantification, with five [...]
Advecting Superspecies: Efficiently Modeling Transport of Organic Aerosol with a Mass-Conserving Dimensionality Reduction Method
Published: 2022-06-26
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The chemical transport model LOTOS-EUROS uses a volatility basis set (VBS) approach to represent the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) in the atmosphere. Inclusion of the VBS approximately doubles the dimensionality of LOTOS-EUROS and slows computation of the advection operator by a factor of two. This complexity limits SOA representation in operational forecasts. We develop a [...]
Potential for Perceived Failure of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Deployment
Published: 2022-06-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Sustainability
As anthropogenic activities warm the Earth, the fundamental solution of reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains elusive. Given this mitigation gap, global warming may lead to intolerable climate changes as adaptive capacity is exceeded. Thus, there is emerging interest in solar radiation modification, which is the process of deliberately increasing Earth's albedo to cool the planet. [...]
Robust Probabilities of Detection and Quantification Uncertainty for Aerial Methane Detection: Examples for Three Airborne Technologies
Published: 2022-06-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Mechanical Engineering, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models
Thorough characterization of probabilities of detection (POD) and quantification uncertainties is fundamentally important to understand the place of aerial measurement technologies in alternative means of emission limitation (AMEL) or alternate fugitive emissions management programs (Alt-FEMP); monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) efforts; and surveys designed to support [...]