Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Atmospheric Sciences
Signal-to-noise errors in early winter Euro-Atlantic predictions caused by weak ENSO teleconnections and pervasive North Atlantic jet biases
Published: 2024-09-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Long-range winter predictions over the Euro-Atlantic sector have demonstrated significant skill but suffer from systematic signal-to-noise errors. In this study we examine early winter seasonal predictability in 16 state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems. Models demonstrate skill in the hindcasts of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in early winter, which mostly projects onto the East [...]
On the link between weather regimes and energy shortfall during winter for 28 European countries
Published: 2024-08-23
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences
Increasing the proportion of energy generation from renewables is one of the necessary steps towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are highly weather sensitive, leading to a challenge when balancing energy demand and renewable energy production, and therefore in managing energy shortfall. Identifying periods of high shortfall, here [...]
Large-scale controls on intensity-duration characteristics of heatwaves in an idealised model
Published: 2024-08-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
The relationship between the large-scale structure of the atmospheric circulation and the mean intensity and duration of heatwaves is studied in an idealised climate model. Using the tight relationship between near-surface temperature and lower tropospheric dry static energy (DSE) in the model, we study the energetics of the lower troposphere during heatwaves in the model. This analysis leads to [...]
More biomass burning aerosol is being advected westward over the southern tropical Atlantic since 2003
Published: 2024-07-26
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
Each year, agricultural fires in southern continental Africa emit approximately one third of the world’s biomass burning aerosol. This is advected westward by the prevailing circulation winds over a subtropical stratocumulus cloud deck. The radiative effects from the aerosol and aerosol-cloud interactions impact regional circulations and hydrology. Here we examine how concurrent changes in the [...]
Amplifying Exploration of Regional Climate Risks: Clustering Future Projections on Regionally Relevant Impact Drivers Not Emission Scenarios
Published: 2024-07-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Hydrology, Meteorology, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis
Climate impacts will continue to evolve over the coming decades, requiring regions worldwide to obtain actionable climate information. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to explore future conditions, but the variability of projections among GCMs complicates regional climate risk assessments. This variability in future projections is only partly explained by the often-used emission [...]
Satellite survey sheds new light on global solid waste methane emissions
Published: 2024-07-09
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Sciences
Anthropogenic methane emissions are the second most important contributor to climate change, and their rapid reductions could help decrease near-term warming. Solid waste emits methane through the decay of organic material, which amounts to about 10% of total anthropogenic methane emissions. Satellite instruments enable monitoring of strong methane hotspots, including many strongly emitting urban [...]
Increasingly seasonal jet stream raises risk of co-occurring flooding and extreme wind in Great Britain
Published: 2024-07-03
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Hydrology, Multivariate Analysis
Insurers and risk managers for critical infrastructure such as transport or power networks typically do not account for flooding and extreme winds happening at the same time in their quantitative risk assessments. We explore this potentially critical underestimation of risk from these co-occurring hazards through studying events using the regional 12 km resolution UK Climate Projections for a [...]
How Will Precipitation Characteristics Associated with Tropical Cyclones in Diverse Synoptic Environments in the Southeast United States Respond to Climate Change?
Published: 2024-06-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Tropical cyclones (TCs) can produce large rainfall totals which lead to devastating flooding, loss of life, and significant damage to infrastructure. Many studies have examined future changes in TC precipitation; however, few have considered changes owing to differences in the synoptic environment during landfall. Here, we focus on three North Atlantic TCs that impacted the southeastern United [...]
Exploring coastal climate adaptation through storylines: Insights from Cyclone Idai in Beira, Mozambique
Published: 2024-06-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Hydraulic Engineering, Hydrology, Meteorology, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Water Resource Management
Coastal settlements, facing increasing flood risk from Tropical Cyclones (TCs) under climate change, need local and detailed climate information for effective adaptation. Analysis of historical events and their impacts provides such information. This study uses storylines to evaluate adaptation strategies, focusing on Cyclone Idai’s impact on Beira, Mozambique, under different climate [...]
The Overlooked Sub-Grid Air-Sea Flux in Climate Models
Published: 2024-05-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Oceanography
Understanding air-sea interaction is crucial for our ability to predict future states of the climate system, and to inform economic and societal decision-making. However, the representation of air-sea interactions in climate models is limited by structural errors associated with model resolution. Coarse-resolution climate models do not resolve small-scale structures in the air-sea state, which, [...]
Mercury records from natural archives reveal ecosystem responses to changing atmospheric deposition
Published: 2024-05-15
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Geography, Physical and Environmental Geography
Global ecosystems face mercury contamination, yet long-term data is scarce, hindering understanding of ecosystem responses to atmospheric Hg input changes. To bridge data gap and assess ecosystem responses, we compiled and compared a mercury accumulation database from peat, lake, ice, and marine deposits worldwide with atmospheric mercury deposition modeled by GEOS-Chem, focusing on trends, [...]
Numerical simulation of the 2D trajectory of a non-buoyant fluid parcel under the influence of inertial oscillation
Published: 2024-04-24
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Oceanography
The trajectory of non-buoyant fluid parcels under the influence of inertial oscillations is a pivotal phenomenon in geophysical fluid dynamics, impacting processes such as tracer transport, pollutant dispersion, and the dynamics of marine organisms. This study presents a comprehensive numerical investigation of the two-dimensional trajectory of a non-buoyant fluid parcel subjected to inertial [...]
Moist convective scaling: Insights from an idealised model
Published: 2024-04-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences
The response of clouds and moist-convective processes to heat-loss to space by long-wave radiative cooling is an important feedback in the earth's atmosphere. It is known that moist convection increases roughly in equilibrium with radiative cooling, an assumption often made in simplified models of the tropical atmosphere. In this study, we use an idealised 2D model of the atmosphere introduced by [...]
Improving Urban Climate Adaptation Modelling in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Through Transient Urban Surface Albedo Representation
Published: 2024-04-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Civil Engineering, Climate, Computational Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences
Increasing the albedo of urban surfaces, through strategies like white roof installations, has emerged as a promising approach for urban climate adaptation. Yet, modelling these strategies on a large scale is limited by the use of static urban surface albedo representations in the Earth system models. In this study, we developed a new transient urban surface albedo scheme in the Community Earth [...]
An optimized methane retrieval approach based on Kalman filter for mapping methane point emissions from spaceborne imaging spectrometer
Published: 2024-02-29
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences
Methane (CH4) emissions from point sources in the energy sector plays a crucial role in global CH4 budget. Spaceborne imaging spectrometer has shown superior ability for monitoring these emission events over large spatial coverages and extended timeframes. Presently, the Matched Filter (MF), which is a data-driven method, is widely employed for satellite-based retrieval of CH4 emission flux [...]