Preprints

Filtering by Subject: Climate

Amplifying Exploration of Regional Climate Risks: Clustering Future Projections on Regionally Relevant Impact Drivers Not Emission Scenarios

Franciscus Eduard Buskop, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Bart van den Hurk

Published: 2024-07-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Hydrology, Meteorology, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis

In the upcoming decades, climate change impacts will increasingly emerge, requiring regions worldwide to obtain actionable climate information. Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to explore future conditions, but the variability of projections among GCMs complicates regional climate risk assessments. Often, multi-model means of climate responses to various emission scenarios are used to [...]

Skilful probabilistic predictions of UK floods months ahead using machine learning models trained on multimodel ensemble climate forecasts

Simon Moulds, Louise Slater, Louise Arnal, et al.

Published: 2024-07-11
Subjects: Climate, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Seasonal streamflow forecasts are an important component of flood risk management. Hybrid forecasting methods that predict seasonal streamflow using machine learning models driven by climate model outputs are currently underexplored, yet have some important advantages over traditional approaches using hydrological models. Here we develop a hybrid subseasonal to seasonal streamflow forecasting [...]

Climate equivalence metrics for airline contrail mitigation

Henri Cornec, Zachary Wendling, Marc Shapiro, et al.

Published: 2024-07-10
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Studies, Sustainability

The aviation sector faces a significant challenge in mitigating climate change due to the dual impact of CO2 emissions and contrail formation. Contrails, which form under specific atmospheric conditions, contribute to global warming. Mitigating contrails, however, can require flight path diversions, leading to increased fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. This study evaluates various climate [...]

Increasingly seasonal jet stream drives stormy episodes with joint wind-flood risk in Great Britain

John Hillier, Hannah Bloomfield, Colin Manning, et al.

Published: 2024-07-03
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Hydrology, Multivariate Analysis

Ignoring a correlation between flooding and extreme winds underestimates risk to insurers or providers of critical infrastructure such as railways or electricity. We explore this potential underestimation for Northwest Europe, illustrated using Great Britain (GB), using an event-based analysis in regional 12 km UK Climate Projections (UKCP18, 1981-1999, 2061-2079 – RCP8.5). We derive a new [...]

State-dependency of dynamic and thermodynamic contributions to effective precipitation changes

Laura Braschoss, Nils Weitzel, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, et al.

Published: 2024-06-26
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

Reliable projections of the future hydrological cycle are needed for designing adaptation and mitigation measures under global warming. However, uncertainties in the projected sign and magnitude of effective precipitation changes (precipitation minus evaporation, P-E) remain high. Here, we examine the state-dependency of circulation, temperature, and relative humidity contributions to P-E changes [...]

How Will Precipitation Characteristics Associated with Tropical Cyclones in Diverse Synoptic Environments Respond to Climate Change?

Katherine E Hollinger Beatty, Gary M. Lackmann, Jared H. Bowden

Published: 2024-06-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) can produce large rainfall totals which lead to devastating flooding, loss of life, and significant damage to infrastructure. Here we focus on three North Atlantic TCs that impacted the southeastern United States: Hurricanes Floyd (1999), Matthew (2016), and Florence (2018). While these storms were impactful when they occurred, how might the impacts of similar [...]

Detecting methane emissions from palm oil mills with airborne and spaceborne imaging spectrometers

Adriana Valverde, Javier Roger, Javier Gorroño, et al.

Published: 2024-06-21
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Water Resource Management

Methane (CH4) emissions from human activities are a major cause of global warming, necessitating effective mitigation strategies. In particular, the palm oil industry generates palm oil mill effluent (POME), which continuously emits methane into the atmosphere. Satellites are becoming a powerful tool to detect and quantify methane emissions, but there is no evidence of their ability to monitor [...]

Exploring coastal climate adaptation through storylines: Insights from Cyclone Idai in Beira, Mozambique

Henrique Moreno Dumont Goulart, Karin van der Wiel, Bart van den Hurk, et al.

Published: 2024-06-10
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Hydraulic Engineering, Hydrology, Meteorology, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Water Resource Management

Coastal settlements, facing increasing flood risk from Tropical Cyclones (TCs) under climate change, need local and detailed climate information for effective adaptation. Analysis of historical events and their impacts provides such information. This study uses storylines to evaluate adaptation strategies, focusing on Cyclone Idai’s impact on Beira, Mozambique, under different climate [...]

Spatial Patterns of Urban Heat Islands and Green Space Cooling Effects in the Urban Microclimate of Karachi

Aly Muhammad Gajani

Published: 2024-05-22
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Sciences, Forest Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sustainability

With rapid urbanization and the increasing threats of climate change, metropolitan cities like Karachi, Pakistan, are encountering greater challenges due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon. Understanding the cooling potential of urban green spaces (UGS) is crucial for mitigating heat stress and enhancing urban resilience. This study aims to analyze the thermal dynamics and cooling efficacy [...]

The Overlooked Sub-Grid Air-Sea Flux in Climate Models

Julius Busecke, Dhruv Balwada, Paige Martin`, et al.

Published: 2024-05-18
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Oceanography

Understanding air-sea interaction is crucial for our ability to predict future states of the climate system, and to inform economic and societal decision-making. However, the representation of air-sea interactions in climate models is limited by structural errors associated with model resolution. Coarse-resolution climate models do not resolve small-scale structures in the air-sea state, which, [...]

Global Warming is Industrially Suppressed Middle-School Science

Ferren MacIntyre

Published: 2024-05-15
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics

The 15\% of the American public that denies global warming probably used middle-school science texts in which the topic was omitted at the behest of Big Oil. We attempt to remedy this with a simple explanation of the process, in which the 33°C difference between the Stefan-Bolzmann astrophysical -18°C temperature of the solar-heated planet and the Weather Bureau's comfortable 15°C sea-level [...]

Carcass locations implicate cyanobacterial toxicity in a mass elephant mortality event in Botswana

Davide Lomeo, Emma Tebbs, Nlingisisi Dombole Babayani, et al.

Published: 2024-05-07
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Microbiology and Microbial Ecology Life Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Physical and Environmental Geography, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology

The 2020 mass mortality of 350 African elephants (Loxodonta africana) in Botswana sparked global concern. These deaths have been linked to cyanobacterial toxins (cyanotoxins) in local watering holes (pans), but evidence remains inconclusive. Our study presents the first detailed spatial analysis that explores the relationship between the ecohydrology of 3,389 regional pans with the locations of [...]

Advancing forest aboveground biomass mapping by integrating GEDI with other Earth Observation data using a cloud computing platform: A case study of Alabama, United States

Janaki Sandamali, Lana Narine

Published: 2024-04-06
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Forest Management, Other Forestry and Forest Sciences

Forest aboveground biomass (AGB) is a crucial indicator for monitoring carbon and requires accurate quantification. This study aimed to advance AGB estimation using open access Earth observation (EO) data and cloud computing, focusing on Alabama, USA. The specific objectives were to: (1) develop a workflow for creating a 30 m forest AGBD map with GEDI, using GEE, (2) evaluate and compare [...]

Improving Urban Climate Adaptation Modelling in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Through Transient Urban Surface Albedo Representation

Yuan Sun, Bowen Fang, Keith W Oleson, et al.

Published: 2024-04-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Civil Engineering, Climate, Computational Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences

Increasing the albedo of urban surfaces, through strategies like white roof installations, has emerged as a promising approach for urban climate adaptation. Yet, modelling these strategies on a large scale is limited by the use of static urban surface albedo representations in the Earth system models. In this study, we developed a new transient urban surface albedo scheme in the Community Earth [...]

Problems with Greenhouse Gas Life Cycle Analyses of U.S. LNG Exports and Locally Produced Coal

Robert L Kleinberg

Published: 2024-04-01
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Oil, Gas, and Energy

Exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States are growing rapidly, and the United States government must balance a multiplicity of interests in deciding to what extent the growth of LNG exports should be further encouraged. Its decisions must be consistent with the Natural Gas Act, which mandates that exports of natural gas be in the public interest. In the current administration, [...]

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