Preprints
There are 5726 Preprints listed.
Tectonic Studies Group Equality Diversity and Inclusion report 2021
Published: 2021-05-28
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Tectonics and Structure
In 2021, the TSG Annual Meeting was held online due to the coronavirus pandemic. To build on our 2019 gender diversity report, we wanted to begin gathering diversity data proactively and anonymously. This will enable us to be more inclusive of marginalised genders, avoid mis-gendering participants and to collect a wider range of diversity data. We ran a survey of the presenters and session chairs [...]
European carbon storage resource requirements of climate change mitigation targets
Published: 2021-05-28
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
As a part of climate change mitigation plans in Europe, CO2 storage scenarios have been reported for the United Kingdom and the European Union with injection rates reaching 75 – 330 MtCO2 yr-1 by 2050. However, these plans are not constrained by geological properties or growth rates with precedent in the hydrocarbon industry. We use logistic models to identify growth trajectories and the [...]
Novel sensor array helps to understand submarine cable faults off West Africa
Published: 2021-05-28
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seabed telecommunication cables can be damaged or broken by powerful seafloor flows of sediment (called turbidity currents), which may runout for hundreds of kilometres into the deep ocean. These flows have the potential to affect multiple cables near-simultaneously over very large areas, so it is more challenging to reroute traffic or repair the cables. However, cable-breaking turbidity currents [...]
Flood Markup Language – A Standards-based Exchange Language for Flood Risk Communication
Published: 2021-05-28
Subjects: Engineering
Flooding is one of the most common natural disasters. There are extensive amounts of studies on understanding and predicting flooding to support preparedness and response. It is critical to share and communicate flood forecasting and modeling datasets generated by different systems and organizations. Most of the organizations share flood risk data for operational purposes with limited metadata [...]
Deep-water syn-rift stratigraphy as archives of Early-Mid Pleistocene palaeoenvironmental signals and controls on sediment delivery
Published: 2021-05-27
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy
The timing and character of coarse siliciclastic sediment delivered to deep-water environments in active rift basins is governed by the complicated interactions of tectonics, climate, eustasy, hinterland geology, and shelf process regime. The stratigraphic archives of deep-water syn-rift basin-fills provide records of palaeoenvironmental changes (e.g. climate and vegetation) in onshore [...]
Quantifying the influence of conduit inclination on Taylor Bubble behaviour in basaltic magmas.
Published: 2021-05-27
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
The ascent of single Taylor bubbles suspended in a range of Newtonian liquids, scaled to mimic basaltic magmas, within vertical and inclined tubes has been studied experimentally over the range 0° to 70° (where 0° is vertical and 90° is horizontal). Using measurements of Taylor bubble parameters (ascent velocity and film thickness) and morphology, alongside dimensionless numbers, we show that [...]
Projecting long-term armed conflict risk: an underappreciated field of inquiry?
Published: 2021-05-27
Subjects: Environmental Studies, Human Geography, Nature and Society Relations, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Little research has been done on projecting long-term conflict risks in response to climate change. Such projections are currently neither included in the development of socioeconomic scenarios or climate change impact assessments nor part of global agenda-setting policy processes. In contrast, in other fields of inquiry, long-term projections and scenario studies are established and relevant for [...]
Non-stationary analysis of rogue wave probability over a shoal
Published: 2021-05-27
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Non-equilibrium evolution of wave fields, as occurring over sudden bathymetry variations, can produce rogue seas with anomalous wave statistics. We handle this process by modifying the Rayleigh distribution through the energetics of second-order theory and a weakly non-stationarity reformulation of the Khintchine theorem. The probability model in unsteady conditions is then probed against [...]
Kinematic interaction between stratigraphically discrete salt layers; the structural evolution of the Corrib gas field, offshore NW Ireland
Published: 2021-05-27
Subjects: Tectonics and Structure
The kinematic interaction of thin salt layers during basin evolution has received little attention to date, despite there being several basins which contain multiple thin salt layers across NW Europe. This study utilises high-quality 3D seismic reflection data coupled with borehole data to investigate the evolution of the structure containing the Corrib gas field which is composed of two distinct [...]
Advancing flood warning procedures in ungauged basins with machine learning.
Published: 2021-05-27
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Hydrology
Flood prediction across scales and more specifically in ungauged areas remains still a great challenge that limits the efficiency of flood risk mitigation strategies and disaster preparedness. Building upon the recent success of Machine Learning (ML) models on streamflow prediction, this work presents a prototype ML-based framework for flood warning and flood peak prediction. The fundamental [...]
Quantifying the impact of lagged hydrological responses on the effectiveness of groundwater conservation
Published: 2021-05-27
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Many irrigated agricultural areas seek to prolong the lifetime of their groundwater resources by reducing pumping. However, it is unclear how lagged responses, such as reduced groundwater recharge caused by more efficient irrigation, may impact the long-term effectiveness of conservation initiatives. Here, we use a variably saturated, simplified surrogate groundwater model to: 1) analyze aquifer [...]
Non-deterministic effects in modelling the tidal currents in a high-energy coastal site
Published: 2021-05-27
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Oceanography
Numerical models are commonly employed for predicting tidal stream resource, since harmonic analysis is typically insufficient for representing tidal currents. This is particularly true in regions of high-energy flow and complex bathymetric and coastline features, resulting in highly nonlinear dynamics. Within this work, we demonstrate that non-deterministic effects pose a further barrier to [...]
The importance of threshold in alluvial river channel geometry and dynamics
Published: 2021-05-27
Subjects: Fluid Dynamics, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Sedimentology, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics, Water Resource Management
Many cities and settlements are organized around alluvial rivers, which are self-formed channels composed of gravel, sand and mud. Much of the time alluvial river channels are oversized, in that they could accommodate greater water flow; yet during extreme storms they are woefully undersized, and potentially catastrophic flooding can occur. Considering widely varying hydroclimates, sediment [...]
Detection of Interannual Ensemble Forecast Signals over the North Atlantic and Europe using Atmospheric Circulation Regimes
Published: 2021-05-27
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
To study the forced variability of atmospheric circulation regimes, the use of model ensembles is often necessary for identifying statistically significant signals as the observed data constitute a small sample and are thus strongly affected by the noise associated with sampling uncertainty. However, the regime representation is itself affected by noise within the atmosphere, which can make it [...]
Uncertainty analysis in machine learning for lithofacies classification and porosity prediction
Published: 2021-05-27
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Recently, machine learning has been widely and successfully used by geoscientists to solve typical inverse problems. However, the uncertainty related to the learned model is not properly analysed, and sometimes a simple activation function is applied to provide posterior probability. To address this problem, variance of machine learning models is calculated that can provide additional information [...]