Preprints
There are 5541 Preprints listed.
Estimating Ocean Surface Currents from Satellite Observable Quantities with Machine Learning
Published: 2021-03-03
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Global surface currents are usually inferred from directly observed quantities like sea-surface height, wind stress by applying diagnostic balance relations (like geostrophy and Ekman flow), which provide a good approximation of the dynamics of slow, large-scale currents at large scales and low Rossby numbers. However, newer generation satellite altimeters (like the upcoming SWOT mission) will [...]
Seasonal dispersal of fjord meltwaters as an important source of iron to coastal Antarctic phytoplankton
Published: 2021-03-03
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Glacial meltwater from the western Antarctic Ice Sheet is hypothesized to be an important source of cryospheric iron, fertilizing the Southern Ocean, yet its trace metal composition and factors which control its dispersal remain poorly constrained. Here we characterize meltwater iron sources in a heavily glaciated western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) fjord. Using dissolved and particulate ratios of [...]
Research 339: High-resolution climate projections for Ireland. A multi-model ensemble approach
Published: 2021-03-02
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The method of regional climate modelling was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the 21st-century climate of Ireland. The regional climate model (RCM) simulations were run at high spatial resolution (3.8 and 4 km), the first systematic study of its kind at this scale, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, [...]
Extending full-plate tectonic models into deep time: Linking the Neoproterozoic and the Phanerozoic
Published: 2021-03-02
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Recent progress in plate tectonic reconstructions has seen models move beyond the classical idea of continental drift by attempting to reconstruct the full evolving configuration of tectonic plates and plate boundaries. A particular problem for the Neoproterozoic and Cambrian is that many existing interpretations of geological and palaeomagnetic data have remained disconnected from younger, [...]
Closure of the Proterozoic Mozambique Ocean was instigated by a late Tonian plate reorganization event
Published: 2021-03-02
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Plate reorganization events involve fundamental changes in lithospheric plate-motions and can influence the lithosphere-mantle system as well as both ocean and atmospheric circulation through bathymetric and topographic changes. Here, we compile published data to interpret the geological record of the Neoproterozoic Arabian-Nubian Shield and integrate this with a full-plate tectonic [...]
Birth of a large volcanic edifice offshore Mayotte via lithosphere-scale dike intrusion
Published: 2021-03-02
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Volcanic eruptions shape Earth’s surface and provide a window into deep Earth processes. How the primary asthenospheric melts form, pond and ascend through the lithosphere is, however, still poorly understood. Since 10 May 2018, magmatic activity has occurred offshore eastern Mayotte (North Mozambique channel), associated with large surface displacements, very-low-frequency earthquakes and [...]
Strike-slip overprinting of initial co-axial shortening within the toe region of a submarine landslide: a case study from the Angoche Basin, offshore Mozambique.
Published: 2021-03-01
Subjects: Engineering
Submarine landslides (slides) are some of the most voluminous sediment gravity-flows on Earth and they dominate the stratigraphic record of many subaqueous basins. The general kinematics and internal structure of slides are relatively well-understood, although the way in which they increase in volume and internally deformed as they evolve, and how these processes relate to the development of [...]
Hydro-Meteorological Aspects of the 2021 South Kalimantan Flood: Topography, Tides, and Precipitation
Published: 2021-03-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology
The 2021 South Kalimantan flood was recorded as the most serious ever to have taken place in the province. It occurred due to high-intensity rain during the period 10-19 January, accompanied by a spring tide. This study provides an overview of the disaster, with reference to the hydro-meteorological conditions (topography, tides, and precipitation). The method used was the analysis of the [...]
An uncertainty-focused database approach to extract spatiotemporal trends from qualitative and discontinuous lake-status histories
Published: 2021-03-01
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Longitudinal Data Analysis and Time Series, Other Earth Sciences, Sedimentology, Statistical Methodology, Stratigraphy
Changes in lake status are often interpreted as palaeoclimate indicators due to their dependence on precipitation and evaporation. The Global Lake Status Database (GLSDB) has since long provided a standardised synopsis of qualitative lake status over the last 30,000 14C years. Potential sources of uncertainty however are not recorded in the GLSDB. Here we present an updated and improved [...]
Is there a Speed Limit for the Thermal Steady-State Assumption in Continental Rifts?
Published: 2021-03-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The lithosphere is often assumed to reside in a thermal steady-state when quantitatively describing the temperature distribution in continental interiors and sedimentary basins, but also at active plate boundaries. Here, we investigate the applicability limit of this assumption at slowly deforming continental rifts. To this aim, we assess the tectonic thermal imprint in numerical experiments that [...]
How unprecedented was the February 2021 Texas cold snap?
Published: 2021-02-28
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Risk Analysis
Winter storm Uri brought severe cold to the southern United States in February 2021, causing a cascading failure of interdependent systems in Texas where infrastructure was not adequately prepared for such cold. In particular, the failure of interconnected energy systems restricted electricity supply just as demand for heating spiked, leaving millions of Texans without heat or electricity, many [...]
Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in the Extreme Summer of 2020
Published: 2021-02-27
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
Seasonal forecasts for Yangtze River basin rainfall in June, May–June–July (MJJ) and June–July–August (JJA) 2020 are presented, following successful forecasts in previous years. The 3-month forecasts are based on dynamical predictions of an East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) index, which is transformed into regional-mean rainfall through linear regression. The June rainfall forecasts for the [...]
Temperature variability and extremes both affect economic growth
Published: 2021-02-26
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Changes in temperature averages, variability, and extremes may all independently affect economic growth under climate change. Kotz et al. (2021) show that temperature variability reduces growth, but find no significant effect of temperature extremes. Recreating their results, here we show that temperature extremes do indeed affect growth independently from the effects of variability. Our results [...]
3D modeling of long-term slow slip events along the flat slab segment in the Guerrero Seismic Gap, Mexico
Published: 2021-02-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
During the last two decades, quasi-periodic long-term slow-slip events (SSEs) of magnitudes up to Mw7.5 have been observed about every 4 years in the Guerrero Seismic Gap. Here we present numerical simulations of the long-term SSE cycles along the 3D slab geometry of central Mexico. Our model accounts for the hydrated oceanic crust in the framework of rate-and-state friction. The modeled SSE [...]
Reassessing Eastern Mediterranean tectonics and earthquake hazard from the AD 365 earthquake
Published: 2021-02-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The hallmark of great earthquakes (Mw ≈ 8.3-8.5) in the Mediterranean is the 21 July AD 365 earthquake and tsunami that destroyed cities and killed thousands of people throughout the Eastern Mediterranean. This event is intriguing because most Mediterranean subduction forearcs exhibit pervasive crustal extension and minimal definitive evidence exists for great subduction megathrust earthquakes, [...]