Preprints
There are 5603 Preprints listed.
Impact of data density and endmember definitions on long-term trends in ground cover fractions across European grasslands
Published: 2024-12-17
Subjects: Life Sciences
Long-term monitoring of grasslands is pivotal for ensuring continuity of many environmental services and for supporting food security and environmental modelling. Remote sensing provides an irreplaceable source of information for studying changes in grasslands. Specifically, Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA) allows for quantification of physically meaningful ground cover fractions of grassland [...]
Leaky faults modulated magma ascent and seismicity during the 2022 São Jorge (Azores) volcanic unrest
Published: 2024-12-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure, Volcanology
Understanding the signatures and mechanisms of failed volcanic eruptions is vital for mapping magma plumbing systems and forecasting volcanic hazards. Geological structures like fractures and faults are key to guiding magma, but their mechanisms remain unclear due to limited 3-D mapping of faults in volcanic regions and sufficiently precise earthquake locations. The triple-junction setting of the [...]
3D dynamic rupture modeling of the 2021 Haiti earthquake used to constrain stress conditions and fault system complexity
Published: 2024-12-17
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The 2021 Mw7.2 Haiti earthquake was a devastating event which occurred within the Enriquillo Plantain Garden Fault Zone (EPGFZ). It is not well-understood why neither the 2021 nor the prior Mw7.0 2010 earthquake were simple strike slip events and, instead, ruptured with distinct patches of dip slip and strike slip motion on largely separate fault planes. We develop several 3D dynamic rupture [...]
Development of a dynamic true triaxial electromagnetic Hopkinson bar system
Published: 2024-12-16
Subjects: Engineering
Subsurface rock masses and rock engineering are subjected to multiaxial static stresses and often also bear additional multi-directional dynamic disturbances generated by seismic activity, blast waves and vibration, etc. It is therefore of great importance to study and understand the dynamic mechanical behaviors and failure mechanisms of rocks under multiaxial and multidirectional dynamic [...]
An Analytical Model for CO2 Surface Forcing, with Application to the Direct Precipitation Response
Published: 2024-12-15
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
If temperature is held constant, increasing atmospheric CO2 reduces atmospheric radiative cooling and suppresses precipitation. Global Climate Models suggest this “direct” precipitation response ranges from -2% to -3% per CO2 doubling and hence contributes significantly to the net precipitation response of +3% to +9% per CO2 doubling. Our study aims to explain the magnitude and state-dependence [...]
Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C
Published: 2024-12-15
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Glaciers adapt slowly to changing climatic conditions, resulting in long-term changes in their mass with implications for sea level rise and water supply, even if the climate were to stabilize. Using eight glacier evolution models, we simulate global glacier evolution over multi-centennial timescales, allowing glaciers to equilibrate with climate under various constant global temperature [...]
Potential impacts of plant pests and diseases on trees and forests in the UK
Published: 2024-12-13
Subjects: Forest Biology, Forest Management, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
Plant pests and diseases (PPDs) pose a serious threat to trees and forests globally. In the wake of the ash dieback epidemic, the UK Government instigated the UK Plant Health Risk Register (PHRR) to provide semi-quantitative estimates of invasion probability and impact on host plants for PPDs thought to pose a risk to the UK to help prioritize biosecurity activities. The PHRR currently contains [...]
Modest, not extreme, northern high latitude amplification during the Miocene shown by coccolith clumped isotopes
Published: 2024-12-13
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Accurate predictions of the future climate response to CO2 depend on the ability of climate models to simulate past analog warmer climates, like the Miocene. However, one key unresolved issue in paleoclimate modeling is reproducing the pronounced high-latitude warmth and relatively flat latitudinal temperature gradients inferred from proxy records. Here, we use clumped isotope thermometry—a [...]
A critical evaluation of fossil pollen records from the mangrove tree Pelliciera beyond the Neotropics: biogeographical and evolutionary implications
Published: 2024-12-13
Subjects: Paleontology
Pelliciera is a Neotropical mangrove tree restricted to a small region around the Panama Isthmus. In the past, this taxon was distributed across much of the Neotropics, reaching its maximum extent during the Oligo-Miocene. The occurrence of Pelliciera outside the Neotropics had been debated based on a few fossil pollen records from Africa and Europe, though many of these records have been [...]
Gaia, revisited: atmospheric carbon dioxide as a symptom of a vegetation ozone driven climate cycle
Published: 2024-12-13
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
A synoptic analysis of the history of climate science introduces all potential climate drivers. It is demonstrated that the Keeling curve can be seen to reflect yearly ocean CO2 emission minus yearly ocean CO2 uptake. It is also shown that the global carbon equation (GCE), at the foundation of present day climate models is not an equilibrium. This disequilibrium pertains to the neglect of the [...]
Situating place-based, community-engaged watershed research at Xwulqw'selu Sta'lo'
Published: 2024-12-12
Subjects: Environmental Engineering, Environmental Studies
Xwulqw'selu Sta'lo' is a culturally significant and salmon-bearing river facing significant challenges which Cowichan Tribes and the British Columbia Provincial Government are addressing with a first-of-its-kind watershed plan. Our research is deeply situated at Xwulqw'selu Sta'lo' and is grounded in interdisciplinary academic spheres of place-based research, water monitoring and modeling, [...]
Groundwater connected art: practicing arts-based research to enrich how hydrogeology engages people, place and other disciplines
Published: 2024-12-12
Subjects: Environmental Studies, Hydrology, Other Geography
Groundwater depletion, contamination, and governance challenges persist despite decades of groundwater research. Scientific methods are crucial yet seem insufficient to inspire the deep emotional and cultural connections needed for real change – groundwater challenges and opportunities are not reaching enough hearts and minds. This article calls for a bold shift: integrating arts-based research [...]
Doing conferences differently: a decentralised multi-hub approach for ecological and social sustainability
Published: 2024-12-11
Subjects: Environmental Studies
Conferences are invaluable for career progression, offering unique opportunities for networking, collaboration, and learning. However, there are challenges associated with the traditional in-person conference format. For example, there is a significant ecological impact from attendees’ travel behaviour, and there are social inequities in conference attendance, with historically marginalised [...]
Evaluation and prediction of the Effects of Planetary Orbital Variations to Earth’s Temperature Changes
Published: 2024-12-11
Subjects: Education, Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Existing climate studies mainly assessed the effect of greenhouse gases and aerosols, among other forcings on Earth’s temperature. None of them has not evaluated the effect of the planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature. Here, we deconvolved the effects of greenhouse gases and planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature and to forecast the latter at different time scales. Our [...]
Demise of the Barra Honda carbonate shoal (Costa Rica) at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary linked to climate change and forearc tectonics
Published: 2024-12-11
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The latest Cretaceous(?)–Paleocene Barra Honda Formation represents one of the largest carbonate shoals (>900 km2, 350 m thick) of the convergent margin of Costa Rica. Although the mode of formation of the carbonate shoal is well understood, how environmental and tectonic factors interacted to cause its demise near the Paleocene-Eocene boundary remains poorly constrained. Stable isotopic, [...]