Preprints
There are 5428 Preprints listed.
Spatiotemporal forecast of extreme events in a chaotic dynamical model of slow slip events
Published: 2024-03-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Seismic and aseismic slip events result from episodic slips on faults and are often chaotic due to stress heterogeneity. Their predictability in nature is a widely open question. In this study, we forecast extreme events in a numerical model. The model, which consists of a single fault governed by rate-and-state friction, produces realistic sequences of slow events with a wide range of magnitudes [...]
Reconciling ultra-emitter detections from two aerial hyperspectral imaging surveys in the Permian Basin
Published: 2024-03-16
Subjects: Engineering
Reducing methane emissions from oil and gas operations is key to minimizing the climate impact of fossil fuels. Two comprehensive aerial studies in 2019 in the Permian Basin revealed excess emissions compared to official estimates. Although both studies suggested high emissions, the estimates from the two aerial surveys seemed to differ greatly: one study measured 153 (+12/-10, 95% CI) metric [...]
On evaporation kinetics of multicomponent aerosols: Characteristic times and implications for volatility measurements.
Published: 2024-03-16
Subjects: Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Transport Phenomena
This paper presents a theoretical analysis of the evaporation of individual compounds from an aerosol in vapor-free conditions, demonstrating that the evaporation of mixture components is interconnected via the ratio of their characteristic times. These characteristic times are proportional to the square of the initial particle diameter and inversely proportional to the compound saturation vapor [...]
ND70 Series Basaltic Glass Reference Materials for Volatile Element (H2O, CO2, S, Cl, F) Measurement and the C Ionisation Efficiency Suppression Effect of Water in Silicate Glasses in SIMS
Published: 2024-03-16
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We present a new set of reference materials, the ND70-series, for in situ measurement of volatile elements (H2O, CO2, S, Cl, F) in silicate glass of basaltic composition. The materials were synthesised in piston cylinders at pressures of 1 to 1.5 GPa under volatile-undersaturated conditions. They span mass fractions from 0 to 6% m/m H2O, from 0 to 1.6% m/m CO2 and from 0 to 1% m/m S, Cl and F. [...]
Executive Summary: The Anthropocene Epoch and Crawfordian Age: proposals by the Anthropocene Working Group
Published: 2024-03-15
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This is the Executive Summary of a report produced by the membership of the Anthropocene Working Group as part of a submission to the Subcommission on Quaternary Stratigraphy to seek formalisation of the Anthropocene as an epoch of geological time. It summarises the content of two reports and their associated appendices which provide a background to: the history of usage of the term Anthropocene, [...]
Brittle origin of off-fault fractures during the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence
Published: 2024-03-15
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure
According to the classical Mohr-Coulomb-Anderson theory, faults form at an angle from the largest regional compressive stress that is approximately 30° for most rocks. However, real settings are more complex and faults often present orientations inconsistent with the angles predicted by the classical theory applied to the present-day regional stress field. The Ridgecrest region hosts a young [...]
Experimental method for quantifying macroplastic fragmentation in rivers
Published: 2024-03-14
Subjects: Life Sciences
Direct field measurements of macroplastic fragmentation during its transport in rivers are unavailable, and there is no method to perform such measurements. Recent theoretical works have hypothesised that river channels may be hotspots of macroplastic fragmentation. Here, we propose a methodology for quantifying riverine macroplastic fragmentation by conducting repeated measurements of tagged [...]
A Multiplex Rupture Sequence under Complex Fault Network due to Preceding Earthquake Swarms during the 2024 Mw 7.5 Noto Peninsula, Japan, Earthquake
Published: 2024-03-14
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
A devastating earthquake with moment magnitude 7.5 occurred in the Noto Peninsula in central Japan on 1 January 2024. We estimate the rupture evolution of this earthquake from teleseismic P-wave data using the potency-density tensor inversion method, which provides information on the spatiotemporal slip distribution including fault orientations. The results show a long and quiet initial rupture [...]
Assessing the mean output rate (MOR) of past effusive basaltic eruptions - a look at the postglacial volcanism of the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland
Published: 2024-03-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
Volcanological approaches for assessing the effusion rate of past effusive volcanism are of great importance, to enable proper evaluation of the eruption magnitude and past tectono-magmatic conditions which are relevant for mitigating future volcanism. The reactivation of volcanism on the Reykjanes peninsula in 2021 after an 800-year hiatus, has incited the need for assessing the potential scale [...]
Different growth response of mountain rangeland habitats to annual weather fluctuations
Published: 2024-03-13
Subjects: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
An accurate long-term monitoring of mountain rangelands is of primary importance for biodiversity conservation and sustainability of pastoral land use. In this study, we investigate how the seasonality of growth in nine habitats composing the alpine rangeland ecosystem responds to differences in weather conditions from year to year and how these changes occur along the elevation profile. We apply [...]
Turbulence and mixing from neighbouring stratified shear layers
Published: 2024-03-13
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Studies of Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (KHI) have typically modeled the initial mean flow as an isolated stratified shear layer. However, geophysical flows frequently exhibit multiple layers. As a step towards understanding these flows, we examine the case of two adjacent stratified shear layers {\color{black} using both linear stability analysis and direct numerical simulation}. With [...]
Carbon dioxide migration along faults at the Illinois Basin – Decatur Project revealed using time shift analysis of seismic monitoring data
Published: 2024-03-13
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences
Large scale geological storage of CO2 is being deployed worldwide to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere. Previous modelling studies have investigated the potential for CO2 migration along faults. We observe such migration at a commercial-scale, demonstration CO2 storage project, including subsequent emergence of the CO2 into overlying permeable layers. Previous attempts at [...]
Geospatial Modeling and Mapping of Soil Erosion in India
Published: 2024-03-13
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering
Soil erosion generally removes the topmost fertile layer of soil, affecting agricultural productivity on a larger scale. As a significant portion of the Indian economy depends on agricultural productivity, granular assessment of the impact of soil erosion becomes critical. However, a national-scale assessment of soil erosion and an impact classification system currently doesn’t exist over India. [...]
Wildfire smoke exposure and mortality burden in the US under future climate change
Published: 2024-03-13
Subjects: Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Sciences, Public Health, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Wildfire activity has increased in the US and is projected to accelerate under future climate change. However, our understanding of the impacts of climate change on wildfire smoke and health remains highly uncertain. Here we quantify the mortality burden in the US due to wildfire smoke fine particulate matter (PM2.5) under future climate change. We construct an ensemble of statistical and machine [...]
The Virtual Water Gallery: Art as a catalyst for transforming knowledge and behaviour in water and climate
Published: 2024-03-13
Subjects: Environmental Studies
Water is life. Water-related challenges, such as droughts, floods, water quality degradation, permafrost thaw and glacier melt, exacerbated by climate change, affect everyone. It is challenging, yet of critical importance, to communicate science on such difficult highly volatile topics. Art is a more approachable medium to traditional scientific outlets that has the potential to diversify voices [...]