Preprints
There are 7999 Preprints listed.
The Response of Onset and Withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon to Volcanic Aerosols
Published: 2026-03-05
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology
Large volcanic eruptions are a source of climate variability, affecting the seasonal mean precipitation of the Indian summer monsoon. However, the extent to which changes in seasonal precipitation can be attributed to variations in monsoon length vs. monsoon intensity has remained unclear. Using large ensemble simulations of idealised volcanic eruptions at varying latitudes, we find that the [...]
Frictional weakening in the highly mobile 2025 Blatten (Switzerland) rock–ice avalanche
Published: 2026-03-17
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Dynamics and Dynamical Systems, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Geotechnical Engineering, Multivariate Analysis, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Planetary Geomorphology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Risk Analysis
Cascading slope failures in alpine environments are intensifying as glaciers retreat and slope stability adjusts to a warming climate. Yet, the mechanisms governing such large, rapidly evolving events remain poorly understood. The 28 May 2025 rock–ice avalanche from Birch Glacier, Switzerland ($\approx9.3\times10^{6}~\mathrm{m^3}$), which devastated part of the village of Blatten, provides a [...]
An analysis of landslides in Great Britain using soil texture, rainfall, and topography reveals contrasting failure conditions between organic and mineral soils
Published: 2026-03-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Soil Science
Rainfall-induced landslides cause millions of pounds in damage to infrastructure in Great Britain (GB) annually and occasionally result in human fatalities. However, there are limited guidelines or policies aimed at reducing landslide risk in GB and few studies have broadly characterized landslide incidence across the region. Furthermore, peat landslides, which are a phenomenon that occur almost [...]
Super El Niño Winters and the Arctic Polar Vortex: Response Heterogeneity, QBO Modulation, and a Prospectively Defined Test for Winter 2026/27
Published: 2026-08-30
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Earth Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
In the three strongest El Niño winters of the instrumental record (1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16) the Arctic polar vortex did not collapse in a major midwinter sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). This study starts from the premise that the observation is not a paradox: 58% of El Niño winters contain at least one major SSW, so the chance probability of three consecutive SSW-free winters is 0.42³≈0.07, [...]
A comprehensive calibration framework for the Northwest River Forecast Center
Published: 2025-04-19
Subjects: Civil Engineering, Hydrology, Other Civil and Environmental Engineering
We present a comprehensive framework developed by the Northwest River Forecast Center for calibrating hydrologically diverse basins. The framework includes models for snow, soil moisture, routing, channel loss, and consumptive use. Data inputs include a wide range of open-access datasets for meteorology, land use, topography, and land cover. The framework uses conceptual hydrologic models to [...]
Calibrated spatial uncertainty for Earth observation foundation models via Matérn-motivated latent stochastic regularization
Published: 2026-05-17
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models
Earth observation foundation models produce dense spatial embeddings that support transfer learning across sensors and regions, yet these representations carry no explicit spatial statistical model for covariance, smoothness, or uncertainty. Existing deep learning uncertainty methods produce per-pixel variance estimates that ignore spatial dependence, and their calibration is rarely assessed [...]
A Multi-year Analysis of Supraglacial Lake Seasonal Dynamics in the Karakoram
Published: 2026-03-10
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Supraglacial lakes are a key feature of many debris-covered glaciers in the Karakoram region. These lakes are highly dynamic, often forming and draining rapidly on seasonal timescales. However, due to their small size and transient nature, they are largely absent from regional and global glacial lake inventories. In this study, we used Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to examine [...]
Does Free Allocation Slow Decarbonization ? Installation-Level Evidence from the EU ETS, Phases III and IV
Published: 2026-07-01
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Statistics and Probability
Installations at high risk of carbon leakage receive free allowances from the European Union Emissions Trading System. Free allowances are allocated to prevent energy-intensive factories from relocating outside the EU. However, whether free allocation slows decarbonization remains an open question. In this paper, I test this question directly. The panel was built at the installation-level. The [...]
Spatial Assessment of Urban Flood Vulnerability in Polk County, Iowa Using a Social–Ecological–Technological Framework
Published: 2026-04-03
Subjects: Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Geographic Information Sciences
Flood impacts are shaped not only by environmental or economic consequences but also by the social, ecological, and infrastructural conditions that influence how communities experience and recover from hazards. This study aims to assess multi-domain flood vulnerability across Polk County, Iowa utilizing a Social–Ecological–Technological Systems (SETS) framework. Eighteen indicators were [...]
Unravelling sustainable development at the sub-national scale in India
Published: 2024-11-07
Subjects: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Studies, Life Sciences, Nature and Society Relations
India's diverse socioeconomic landscape and environmental challenges make it a complex case for implementing the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Despite India's federal structure, comprehensive research on subnational SDG progress is lacking. This study analysed progress, challenges, interlinkages, and spatial disparities in individual and grouped SDGs (environmental, social, and [...]
SpecFWAT: Specfem3D-based Full-waveform Adjoint Tomography Package for High-resolution Lithospheric Imaging
Published: 2026-02-27
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
We present SpecFWAT, a high-performance, open-source software package designed for full-waveform adjoint tomography at the lithospheric scale using multiple data types. Building upon the spectral-element forward solver SPECFEM3D, SpecFWAT introduces a modernized inversion framework featuring an object-oriented Fortran design and a CMake-based build environment. To enhance usability and [...]
Community-Oriented Data Integration and Communication Framework for Streamflow Forecast Models and Flood Inundation Map Products
Published: 2025-12-24
Subjects: Civil Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering, Water Resource Management
Access to critical flood risk information is often limited by expert-driven workflows that require specialized software, creating a barrier to stakeholder engagement and effective science communication. This study presents a generalized web-based framework that integrates federal datasets to support real-time, scenario-based flood forecasting and mapping across the continental United States. By [...]
HIGH-RESOLUTION DIGITAL TERRAIN MODEL FOR THE ITALIAN TERRITORY
Published: 2026-03-12
Subjects: Agriculture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Engineering Education, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geography, Life Sciences, Mining Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Social and Behavioral Sciences
High-resolution digital terrain models are essential for environmental planning and territorial analyses, and provide foundations for geomorphological and hydrological applications, including flood and landslide modelling and geo-hydrological hazard and risk assessments. In Italy, airborne LiDAR surveys have improved the representation of terrain morphology in the last decade, but their coverage [...]
Structural Shifts in Urban Air Pollution Patterns in Trinidad After COVID-19: Evidence from Diurnal and Weekday/Weekend PM Profiles, 2022-2024
Published: 2026-02-27
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The COVID-19 pandemic temporarily reduced air pollution by disrupting human mobility. This study tests whether particulate pollution patterns in Trinidad and Tobago underwent lasting structural change during the post-pandemic period 2022-2024. We analyse continuous PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ observations from four Environmental Management Authority monitoring sites representing distinct source environments: [...]
HydroBlox: AI-Assisted Visual Programming Framework for Enhanced Scientific Reproducibility in Hydrology
Published: 2025-06-21
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computational Engineering, Education, Environmental Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering, Science and Mathematics Education
Scientific workflow reproducibility for hydrological and environmental analyses remains a challenge due to the heterogeneity of data sources, analysis protocols, and evolving visualization needs. This study introduces HydroBlox, a client-side browser-based framework that supports the creation, execution, and export of hydrological workflows using a visual programming interface. The platform [...]