Preprints
There are 6976 Preprints listed.
SIM4Action: An Interactive Platform for Social-Environmental Systems Mapping and Causal Analysis
Published: 2026-03-25
Subjects: Environmental Engineering, Environmental Studies, Hydraulic Engineering, Life Sciences
SIM4Action is an open-source, browser-based platform for participatory analysis of complex socio-environmental systems through interactive causal network graphs. Existing systems mapping tools require practitioners to combine separate software for map construction, network analysis, and causal simulation; none provides an integrated workflow accessible to non-technical stakeholders. SIM4Action [...]
Comparative Machine Learning approach to seasonal ENSO Forecasting with Time-Series Performance Evaluation
Published: 2026-05-07
Subjects: Education, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important climate phenomena that affects weather conditions worldwide. It influences monsoon seasons, droughts, and crop productivity. Forecasting of ENSO processes is rather difficult since the system is inherently nonlinear. Moreover, the Spring Predictability Barrier limits the predictive capacity of forecasters during the boreal [...]
ForestCast: Forecasting Deforestation Risk at Scale with Deep Learning
Published: 2025-10-31
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Environmental Monitoring
Deforestation is a major threat to biodiversity and the stability of the climate. Current monitoring solutions provide reactive alerts only after deforestation has occurred, rendering them inadequate for prevention. Proactive deforestation prevention necessitates forecasting at-risk areas; however, previous forecasting efforts have been constrained by their reliance on simple statistical models [...]
Diagnosing subseasonal and seasonal drivers of European and North African winter extremes using information theory
Published: 2026-05-08
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Diagnosing subseasonal and seasonal drivers of European and North African winter extremes using information theory
The effectiveness and potential cost-savings of operator select to manage brush and thin longleaf pine stands
Published: 2025-08-11
Subjects: Forest Management, Other Forestry and Forest Sciences
We present a case study where loggers thinned and managed brush in longleaf pine stands that went unmanaged for a lengthy period in Trinity County, Texas, USA. Stands were overstocked and had a dense, shrubby understory from years of fire exclusion. Our main objectives were to compare the outcomes and cost-savings of loggers selecting trees to thin, or “operator select”, versus timber marking, [...]
From Impact Chains to Decision-Support: Designing CRISP, a Climate Risk Planning Tool for Agri-Food Systems
Published: 2026-04-01
Subjects: Risk Analysis
Systematically integrating climate risk considerations into development planning remains a persistent challenge, particularly where a lot of information needs to be gathered and practical, accessible tools and databases are lacking. Existing climate risk assessment approaches are often complex, resource-intensive, or not designed for specific sectoral contexts. To address this gap, the Climate [...]
Climate variability introduces uncertainty into future emissions pathways
Published: 2026-04-11
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Uncertainty in long-term climate outcomes arises not only from physical processes but also from societal responses to climate variability and change. Here we embed a range of temperature anomalies into an empirically-informed, coupled climate–social model to investigate how natural temperature variability shapes global emissions trajectories. Using Monte Carlo ensembles spanning social, [...]
Learning-Based Methods and the Future of Numerical Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling
Published: 2026-04-11
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The field of operational oceanography is undergoing a significant evolution with the increasing integration of artificial intelligence (AI) methods, which are complementing and, in some cases, redefining traditional numerical modeling approaches. This review explores how AI methods—particularly model-based autoregressive emulators, hybrid modeling, and end-to-end model-free approaches—are [...]
AI-Assisted Voice Enabled Computing Framework for Hydrological Analysis
Published: 2025-07-01
Subjects: Civil Engineering, Computer and Systems Architecture, Environmental Engineering, Higher Education
This work presents a web-based, voice-enabled, no-code platform for AI-assisted hydrological analysis. The system allows users to interact through natural language—via both text and speech—to retrieve data, utilize hydrological functions, and visualize spatial and analytical outputs. Core components include a conversational AI assistant utilizing Large Language Models, a modular analysis engine [...]
Origin of Silicic Magmas at Kibblewhite Volcano: Implications for Bimodal Volcanism in the Kermadec Arc
Published: 2025-03-29
Subjects: Geochemistry, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Volcanology
Bimodal volcanism of basaltic and rhyolitic magmas in the Kermadec Arc has been attributed to the fractional crystallization of basaltic sources. However, new evidence from the Kibblewhite Volcano reveals two distinct differentiation pathways originating from mantle-derived basaltic and andesitic primary magmas. Here we employ geothermobarometric estimations, mass-balance calculations, and [...]
Geodynamic Model Description for Ptolemy’s Germania Magna
Published: 2026-05-13
Subjects: Analysis, Astrophysics and Astronomy, Dynamical Systems, Dynamic Systems, Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Mathematics, Other Applied Mathematics, Other Astrophysics and Astronomy, Other Earth Sciences, Other Planetary Sciences, Planetary Geology, Planetary Geophysics and Seismology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability, Stratigraphy, Tectonics and Structure, The Sun and the Solar System, Volcanology
This model proposes that the well-documented geodynamic and climatic disruption of the 6th century AD involved a reactivation of the ancient Caledonian Deformation Front (CDF) and the Trans-European Suture Zone (TESZ), most likely triggered by cosmic events in the form of impacts or airbursts. Large-scale inversion tectonics, driven by Alpine compressive forces, are argued to have caused [...]
On the assessment of sinking particle fluxes from in situ particle size distributions
Published: 2024-12-16
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences, Other Earth Sciences
The biological carbon pump is a vital component of the global carbon cycle, particularly through sinking of particulate organic carbon (POC) to the ocean interior. Particle size distribution (PSD) observations from the Underwater Vision Profiler (UVP) have been widely used to quantify sinking POC fluxes. This approach assumes that the sinking POC flux is a function of the PSD multiplied by a [...]
Sustainable Design from Waste Up: Irradiated Graphite Disposal Assessments to Inform Reactor Design and Operation
Published: 2026-03-24
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering
As Gen IV graphite-moderated reactor technologies advance to demonstration and deployment, the question must be answered of how, where, and when to dispose of the irradiated graphite waste produced from the operation of these facilities. This work presents an integrated assessment involving the entire graphite lifecycle in nuclear power production: impurity measurement of graphite grades, reactor [...]
Statistics of curvature in the submesoscale surface ocean
Published: 2026-04-25
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Ocean submesoscale (1--10\,km) variability is hypothesised to contribute substantially to upper-ocean vertical exchange and heat fluxes, but the three-dimensional turbulent nature of the variability makes it difficult to interpret submesoscale variability dynamically. Statistics of velocity gradients are often analyzed to characterize the nature of submesoscale dynamics. Previous analyses show [...]
Variation in Dissolved Oxygen Levels Between Agricultural and Protected Streams in Loudoun County, Virginia
Published: 2026-04-01
Subjects: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
Agricultural runoff can reduce dissolved oxygen (DO) in streams and increase the risk of hypoxia for aquatic organisms. We monitored four streams in Loudoun County, Virginia for four weeks to compare DO dynamics between two agricultural sites and two protected forested sites, and to observe the response to a 1.3 inch storm event. Sites were sampled twice daily for DO and related water quality [...]