Preprints
There are 8001 Preprints listed.
A real time reservoir inflow forecast evaluation framework
Published: 2025-10-16
Subjects: Environmental Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering
Recent advances in hydrologic forecasting have produced a growing number of streamflow forecast products. Hydropower operators must determine whether they improve operations enough to justify their cost. We present a framework for comparing multiple reservoir inflow forecasts over a common period under real-time operating conditions. This design suits cases where hindcasts are infeasible, or [...]
Satellite-based Assessment of Continuous and Episodic Flaring Regimes across Major Oil and Gas-producing Basins
Published: 2026-10-22
Subjects: Oil, Gas, and Energy, Remote Sensing
Gas flaring wastes valuable natural gas while emitting large amounts of harmful air pollutants; however, existing flare inventories rarely distinguish the operational behavior across various basins and fuel types, namely oil- and gas-associated flaring.This limits their value for targeted mitigation efforts. Here, we present a satellite-based classification framework for characterizing flaring [...]
Deep Learning to Infer Ocean Dynamics
Published: 2026-09-20
Subjects: Oceanography
Inferring ocean dynamics remains challenging due to the complexity of multiscale nonlinear interactions, sparsity of observations, and limitations of numerical models. Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful data-driven framework that exploits nonlinear dependencies across heterogeneous datasets, complementing traditional approaches. Here, we review recent progress in applying DL to ocean [...]
Phanerozoic atmosphere and ocean conditions estimated by a continuous climate and multi-box ocean model
Published: 2026-09-15
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Geochemistry, Other Earth Sciences
The Phanerozoic Eon has witnessed marked fluctuations in Earth’s climate and the concentrations of elements conducive to life. Understanding what has driven these changes to the Earth system over such a long timeframe has traditionally used ‘box models’ which split the Earth into a small number of chemical reservoirs, with many models utilising a single, combined ocean-atmosphere reservoir. This [...]
Coral connectivity: How biophysical modelling choices shape connectivity inference
Published: 2026-09-15
Subjects: Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Understanding coral connectivity is essential for predicting metapopulation dynamics and guiding restoration under accelerating climate change. Connectivity facilitates the exchange of organisms among reefs and can promote recovery following disturbance. Biophysical models are widely used to predict and explore coral connectivity; however, their estimates carry substantial uncertainty arising [...]
Coseismic Shallow Landslide Distributions Reveal Patterns of Regolith Thickness in High Mountains
Published: 2025-12-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology
Earthquake‐triggered landslides are a major source of sediment mobilization in steep mountain landscapes, yet the controls that organize regional patterns of coseismic shallow failure remain incompletely understood. Because shallow landslides occur within regolith, their initiation and magnitude depend strongly on near‐surface material thickness, which is rarely measured directly in mountainous [...]
Quantitative palaeohydrology reveals fluvial response to early-mid Triassic climate change
Published: 2026-07-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy
Anthropogenic climate change represents the greatest modern forcing on global river dynamics. Investigating the sensitivity of rivers to past climate in the geological record is thus crucial in understanding future landscapes in a warming world. The Sherwood Sandstone Group, UK, a unit of early-middle Triassic (c. 248-239 Ma) dryland fluvial deposits, records the protracted climatic-biotic [...]
Methodological Bias between Trajectory Geometric Co-location and Air-Parcel Lagrangian Co-location: Evidence from UAV Re-penetration Observations over the Western Sichuan Plateau
Published: 2026-09-05
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology
Whether "trajectory geometric co-location" is equivalent to "air-parcel Lagrangian co-location" remains a methodological blind spot in evaluating UAV cloud-seeding re-penetration (the UAV performed a repeated cloud penetration—hereafter, re-penetration—to re-sample the same cloud volume). Using silver iodide (AgI) seeding observations from a Wing Loong-2 UAV flight over the Western Sichuan [...]
Rapid declines in UK PM2.5 reflect coordinated reductions in regional nitrate and continental influence
Published: 2026-09-15
Subjects: Life Sciences
Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a major environmental risk factor for premature mortality globally. Although PM2.5 concentrations have declined across Europe since the 1990s, recent progress has shown signs of slowing, raising concerns over the achievability of increasingly stringent ambient air quality targets. Ambient PM2.5 concentrations across the UK underwent a rapid and sustained decline [...]
Bottom-up estimation of CO2 emissions from container ships: a proof of concept using real operational data on the Brazil–Asia route
Published: 2026-10-06
Subjects: Sustainability
Granular quantification of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from maritime transport matters both for the assessment of decarbonisation strategies and for the attribution of the carbon footprint to logistics flows. This study proposes a bottom up approach that integrates operational reconstruction of the voyage, physical–energy modelling, Tank-to-Wake (TTW) and Well-to-Wake (WTW) assessment, and [...]
Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Urban Expansion in Awka and its Environs, Nigeria Using Sentinel-2 Satellite Imagery and Google Earth Engine (2021 to 2026)
Published: 2026-09-16
Subjects: Remote Sensing, Spatial Science
Abstract Rapid urbanization in secondary administrative and educational hubs across sub-Saharan Africa presents significant challenges for regional planning, infrastructure development, and sustainable resource allocation. This study evaluates the spatio-temporal dynamics of urban expansion in Awka and its environs Anambra State, Nigeria, between 2021 and 2026 using cloud-based remote sensing [...]
The Ill-Posed Question of Global Mean Temperature
Published: 2026-10-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The question "Does a global temperature exist?" was answered in the negative by C. Essex, R. McKitrick, and B. Andresen (EMA), who showed that different choices of mean yield different signs of the global temperature trend. We take EMA’s result as our point of departure and argue that its root cause is more fundamental than the particular data set or averaging formula employed: the very notion of [...]
Paraglider flight logs as hypsometers: daily temperature profiles of an Alpine valley, its diurnal heating, and the nearly level ceiling of thermals
Published: 2026-10-17
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
A paraglider flight recorder stores both pressure and GNSS altitude: together they turn routine flight logs into hypsometric measurements of layer-mean virtual temperature. From 86 369 IGC logs of the Valais, Swiss Alps, quality screening retains 13 520 dedicated-instrument flights on 437 days in 2011–2026; 392 days provide at least one profile layer supported by ten flights. At midday, between [...]
Biodiversity conservation policies alter the solution space of climate mitigation scenarios
Published: 2026-09-08
Subjects: Environmental Sciences
Conserving biodiversity while mitigating climate change is one of the defining sustainability challenges of this century. Paris-aligned mitigation pathways rely heavily on forest restoration and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). While forest restoration can simultaneously enhance wildlife habitat and increase carbon sequestration, large-scale biomass production for BECCS may [...]
Beyond climate-change risk: subjective attribution, multidimensional impact appraisal, and adaptation advocacy among Swedish forestry professionals
Published: 2026-09-07
Subjects: Environmental Studies, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Adaptation may depend on whether decision-makers recognise climate change, but also on whether they attribute experienced changes to climate change and how they appraise consequences across valued domains. We analysed survey data from 140 Swedish forestry professionals to examine whether stronger subjective attribution of experienced forest changes to climate change is associated with more [...]