Preprints
There are 8001 Preprints listed.
Characterizing and Predicting Change in the Global Ocean Biosphere: A Four-Dimensional Observing Strategy for the 2028–2037 Decadal Survey
Published: 2026-09-19
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Ocean ecosystems constitute the largest habitable volume on Earth and regulate climate, support fisheries and a global Blue Economy valued at an estimated $1.5 trillion annually and provide services on which human wellbeing depends. Four decades of satellite ocean color observations have transformed understanding of phytoplankton distribution, biodiversity, and productivity, and NASA's PACE [...]
The trench pull force: constraints from elasto-plastic bending models
Published: 2024-11-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The negative buoyancy of subducting slabs is generally regarded as a principal source of plate-driving force, but its mechanical coupling to trailing plates remains uncertain. The conventional slab-pull model represents slab pull as a tension-like stress resultant transmitted through the subduction hinge, where it acts as an edge force on the trailing plate. A distinct contribution arises from [...]
Evaluations of Climate-Informed Early Warning Systems for Foodborne, Waterborne, and Vector-Borne Diseases: A Scoping Review
Published: 2026-09-16
Subjects: Public Health
Climate change is altering infectious disease risk over time and across geographies. These changing risks can negatively impact human health and pose challenges to health systems. Anticipating outbreaks before they happen and implementing adaptive measures can help reduce the burden of climate-sensitive infectious diseases. Climate-informed early warning systems (CIEWS) are integrated systems of [...]
ZDR Column Behavior in Real and Simulated X-band Radar Observations of Potentially Tornadic Storms
Published: 2026-02-03
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The primary objective of this research is to characterize distinct differential reflectivity (ZDR) column behavior with respect to height, intensity, and aerial coverage prior to tornadogenesis (failure) in X-band radar observations of supercells. ZDR observations of three supercells observed at high spatiotemporal resolution with X-band polarimetric radar, two tornadic and one nontornadic, are [...]
A Unified Forearc Subsidence Model Based on the Three-Arc Unjoined Structure of the Honshu Arc
Published: 2026-09-06
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study reinterprets the subsidence, uplift, fault activity, and geomorphic development observed in the Nōbi Plain, Ise Bay, Lake Biwa, Wakasa Bay, and Osaka Bay through a new structural framework in which the Honshu Arc is understood as an incompletely joined system of three arcs. The Southwest Japan Arc (narrow sense), the Hida–Tamba Terrane, and the Northeast Japan Arc approached each other [...]
Comparing the effect of organic matter quality on aerobic and anaerobic greenhouse gas production in a temperate peatland
Published: 2026-09-16
Subjects: Environmental Sciences
Peatlands have an outsized contribution to both carbon storage and methane (CH4) emissions relative to their land surface area. The factors controlling these fluxes are uncertain, but critical to predicting the future trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions from peatlands. While the biochemical composition of organic matter (termed organic matter “quality”) has been shown to be correlated with its [...]
Station spacing bounds the recovery of rainfall extremes by interpolation: an independent-network test with consequences for landslide thresholds
Published: 2026-09-06
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Gridded rainfall products interpolated from gauge networks underpin landslide early warning, and a common view holds that their main deficiency in mountains is the omission of orographic enhancement. This study tests that view using an independent network: 464 mountain stations operated by the Korea Forest Service that do not enter the operational grid of the Korea Meteorological Administration. [...]
Perceptions of Drought Risk Management in Zambia: Reflections from the Historic 2023/2024 Drought
Published: 2026-09-21
Subjects: International and Area Studies
Drought risk management depends not only on understanding the physical characteristics of drought but also on how drought is experienced, interpreted, and anticipated by affected institutions and communities. This study examines perceptions of drought and their implications for risk management in Zambia using the severe 2023/2024 drought as a case study. Guided by Taylor’s perception framework [...]
Storm-Level Independent Verification of Operational Cloud Seeding: Seven Seasons of Utah's Program, 2016-2025
Published: 2026-10-20
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Fresh Water Studies, Meteorology
Operational winter cloud seeding programs claim precipitation increases of 3-15%, but the evaluations supporting these claims are produced by program operators using target/control methods that cannot separate seeding effects from operator storm selection: storms are seeded precisely when atmospheric conditions favor the target areas. This study performs, to the author's knowledge, the first [...]
Can human seismologists verify machine-learning detected earthquakes?
Published: 2026-09-08
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Routine seismic network catalogues are reviewed event by event by analysts, whereas machine-learning catalogues, which contain five to fifty times more events, leave most of their detections unexamined. Whether those detections are earthquakes can nevertheless be measured, because each one can be checked blind against its own waveforms. Human seismologists returned 4,800 blind verdicts on 1,200 [...]
Cloud Cover and Structural Observation Gaps in African Agricultural Earth Observation: Evidence from Six Agroecological Zones
Published: 2026-09-07
Subjects: Agriculture, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Remote Sensing
Optical Earth observation underpins a growing number of agricultural-monitoring and agri-fintech services across Africa, all of which need a usable view of a field often enough to track its condition. Cloud gaps in that record are usually treated as random missing data; we test whether they are instead structurally biased. Using three growing seasons (2022–2024) of Sentinel-2 scene-classification [...]
Global isotopic proxy records for Ordovician temperature reconstruction
Published: 2026-09-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy
The Ordovician represents a critical interval in the Phanerozoic, marked by two profound biological events: the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event (GOBE), with an unprecedented tenfold increase in marine species diversity, which was abruptly terminated by the Late Ordovician Mass Extinction (LOME), one of the most severe extinction events in Earth's history, wiping out approximately 85% of [...]
Assessment of adjacency effect correction methods for Sentinel-2 MSI observations over mid-latitude lakes
Published: 2026-10-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Fresh Water Studies, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Accurate retrieval of remote-sensing reflectance (Rrs) from lakes requires separating water-leaving radiance from atmospheric, surface and adjacency contributions. We assessed adjacency effect correction (AEC) methods for Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) imagery using 329 satellite--insitu matchups from four mid-latitude lakes: Greifensee, Lake Geneva, Lake Garda and Lake Trasimeno. The [...]
SCI-VIS: Lightweight Visibility Tagging for Coastal Camera Monitoring
Published: 2026-07-29
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Oceanography, Remote Sensing
Observations and measurements made from coastal cameras are conditional on the frame being interpretable. Sea fog, glare, rain and condensation on the housing, haze and low light each degrade the imagery, and the shoreline positions, wave measurements and counts derived from a degraded frame are corrupted or spurious. This paper evaluates a per-frame visibility classifier, based on a compact [...]
Boxology: the isobar–thickness box count as an exact advection integral, and its rendering
Published: 2026-08-24
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
"Boxology" is the hand-analysis practice of reading thermal advection from the angle at which mean-sea-level-pressure isobars cross 1000-500 hPa thickness contours: steep crossings cut the chart into small quadrilaterals and imply strong advection, parallel families imply none. This note shows the practice is an identity within geostrophic balance rather than a rule of thumb, and implements it as [...]