Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Risk Analysis
Tropical cyclone risk to global electricity supply
Published: 2025-09-11
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical and Environmental Geography, Power and Energy, Risk Analysis
To analyse the risks from Tropical Cyclones (TC) to electricity supply, we have combined a large ensemble of TC simulations with a spatial model of power networks and people served, for the entire TC belt globally. The model of electricity power failure, measured in terms of population disrupted, was calibrated against nighttime lights satellite imagery of historic TC events. Use of spatially [...]
The Largest Crop Production Shocks: Magnitude, Causes and Frequency
Published: 2025-09-04
Subjects: Agricultural Science, Agriculture, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Food Science, Risk Analysis
Food is the foundation of our society. We often take it for granted, but stocks are rarely available for longer than a year, and food production can be disrupted by catastrophic events, both locally and globally. To highlight such major risks to the food system, we analyzed FAO crop production data from 1961 to 2023 to find the largest crop production shock for every country and identify its [...]
Assessing uncertainty of source rock properties using Monte Carlo basin modeling – Application to Canning Basin, Australia
Published: 2025-07-24
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability, Stratigraphy
This study presents a Monte Carlo basin modeling framework for quantifying uncertainty in source rock property predictions by integrating geological, geophysical, and geochemical inputs. The approach accounts for variability in petrological parameters from rock physics inversion, paleo-erosion magnitudes, organic facies properties, and boundary conditions to simulate source rock properties such [...]
Screening Global Solar and Wind Energy Investment Potential Accounting for Drought and Surplus
Published: 2025-07-15
Subjects: Environmental Engineering, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Risk Analysis, Sustainability
Climate-induced variability of solar and wind energy impacts renewable electricity scaling. Long duration renewable energy droughts, i.e., extended periods of renewable supply deficits, lead to contract penalties or use of thermo-electric sources, while long duration surpluses result in curtailment or in low energy prices and revenue. We present the first global assessment of the implied [...]
Remote sensing for sustainable river management: Evaluating watershed vulnerability for Ganga, the world’s most densely populated river basin
Published: 2025-05-30
Subjects: Risk Analysis
When standing water mixes with wastewater, it can create serious public health and environmental concerns. This scenario is particularly dangerous in densely populated urban areas with inadequate infrastructure. Such contamination threatens to cause major public health crises in the Ganga River basin where monsoonal flooding, which is exacerbated by climate change, converges with 6 billion liters [...]
Climate Resilient Agriculture Vulnerability Mapping of Indian Districts – Directions for Future Policy Planning
Published: 2025-05-30
Subjects: Risk Analysis
Climate change poses significant risks to agriculture, especially in agro-dependent, climate-vulnerable regions and states of India. This study applies a machine learning-based Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to assess agricultural risks, climate vulnerability in various Indian states with diverse climatic variables to address India's 2070 net-zero goal. It addresses the existing research [...]
Nuclear Winter Could Sever Urban Water Access Across the Northern Hemisphere
Published: 2025-04-03
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Risk Analysis, Water Resource Management
The continuous functioning of the underground water supply networks is essential for many aspects of modern civilization. Therefore, it is essential to keep such critical infrastructure safe from disasters. However, existing risk assessment studies often assume relatively stable climate conditions. Abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios, such as those caused by a nuclear war, a large volcanic [...]
Catastrophic “Hyperclustering” and Recurrent Losses: Diagnosing U.S. Flood Insurance Insolvency Triggers
Published: 2025-03-28
Subjects: Environmental Engineering, Environmental Studies, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Risk Analysis, Systems Engineering
Although a cornerstone of U.S. flood risk preparedness since 1968, the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), is burdened by insolvency. Despite pricing and risk assessment reforms, systemic failures persist, resulting in accumulation of billions in federal debt. This study presents an interdisciplinary framework integrating qualitative synthesis, unsupervised machine learning, and game theory [...]
City-Scale Digital Twin Framework for Flood Impact Analysis: Integrating Urban Infrastructure and Real-time Data Analytics
Published: 2025-03-17
Subjects: Computer Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Risk Analysis, Transportation Engineering
Urban areas are increasingly vulnerable to flooding due to climate change and rapid urbanization. Traditional mapping and decision-support tools lack the capability to integrate real-time data or analyze cascading disruptions across interconnected urban systems. Digital twins offer a promising solution by enabling real-time monitoring, simulation, and optimization of urban environments. This [...]
Understanding Flood Risk in Public Transit Systems: Insights from Accessibility and Vulnerability Analysis in Iowa
Published: 2025-03-14
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering, Risk Analysis, Spatial Science, Transportation Engineering
Flooding is a major challenge for urban transportation systems, hindering access to essential services and jobs, especially for vulnerable populations. This study examines the impact of large flood extents on public transportation in Johnson and Linn counties, Iowa, United States, focusing on flood-prone bus routes, reduced service frequency, and access to job locations. Using Geographic [...]
Beyond Single Hazard Framework: Multi-Hazard Worst Case Scenarios from Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
Published: 2025-02-21
Subjects: Environmental Engineering, Hydrology, Meteorology, Oceanography, Risk Analysis
Ensemble forecasting is a powerful tool for supporting informed decision-making in managing multi-hazard risks associated with tropical cyclones (TCs). Although TC ensemble forecasts are widely used in operational numerical weather prediction systems, their potential for disaster prediction and management has not been fully exploited. Here we propose a novel, efficient, and practical method to [...]
AI-Driven Decision-Making for Water Resources Planning and Hazard Mitigation Using Automated Multi Agents
Published: 2024-12-27
Subjects: Civil Engineering, Computational Engineering, Computer and Systems Architecture, Computer Engineering, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Education, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Geotechnical Engineering, Higher Education, Hydraulic Engineering, Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering, Risk Analysis, Scholarship of Teaching and Learning, Systems Engineering, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology, Transportation Engineering
This project simulates the Multi-Hazard Tournament (MHT) framework, a decision support system designed for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, using AI agents to enhance decisionmaking processes for flood mitigation and water resource management. The objective of the framework is to develop optimal strategies for protecting water resources, habitats, and communities within a defined budget. The [...]
Global industrial disruption following nuclear war
Published: 2024-12-05
Subjects: Agriculture, International and Area Studies, Other Geography, Risk Analysis
Nuclear war poses catastrophic risks not only through its immediate effects and potential nuclear winter, but also through the disruption of industrial production on which modern civilization depends. In this study we estimate the reduction in global industrial output following a US-Russia nuclear war, as well as a more limited India-Pakistan exchange, by combining geospatial analysis with [...]
Exposure to compound climate hazards transmitted via global agricultural trade networks
Published: 2024-11-15
Subjects: Agriculture, Climate, Environmental Studies, Risk Analysis
Compound climate hazards, such as co-occurring temperature and precipitation extremes, substantially impact people and ecosystems. Internal climate variability combines with the forced global warming response to determine both the magnitude and spatial distribution of these events, and their consequences can propagate from one country to another via many pathways. We examine how exposure to [...]
Flooding, nonlinear dynamics and Jensen’s inequality: Analyzing the damping and amplification of inundation extent with river discharge nonstationarity
Published: 2024-11-13
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Hydrology, Risk Analysis