Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Risk Analysis
Measured or assumed? Regulatory defaults, ownership, and the measurement content of the U.S. greenhouse gas inventory
Published: 2026-09-04
Subjects: Environmental Studies, Nature and Society Relations, Risk Analysis
Municipal solid waste landfills are the third-largest anthropogenic source of methane in the United States, and the national inventory for this source is assembled almost entirely from facility self-reports filed under Subpart HH of the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP). Airborne and satellite surveys estimate actual emissions at 1.4 to 2.7 times reported levels, but remote sensing alone [...]
Manufactured vulnerability in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta: engineered drivers and coastal displacement in south-west Bangladesh
Published: 2026-08-29
Subjects: Life Sciences, Marine Biology, Risk Analysis, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Displacement from the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta in south-west Bangladesh is usually attributed to sea-level rise, cyclones and salinity. The evidence assembled here points to a jointly produced process, in which hazards act together with engineered landscape change, governance arrangements and the interval households spend unable to return. Peer-reviewed and grey literature for Khulna, [...]
CRS Methodology to the Realmonte Salt mine, southwestern Sicily: an application for hydrogen storage potential site in Italy.
Published: 2026-08-23
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Geology, Mining Engineering, Multivariate Analysis, Risk Analysis, Sustainability
As Sicily expands its renewable energy portfolio, the need for large-scale energy storage becomes increasingly urgent to ensure supply-demand balance. Hydrogen storage in salt caverns represents a promising solution in this context. This study presents the first real-world application of the Common Risk Segment (CRS) methodology, originally developed for oil and gas exploration and recently [...]
Adalar at the Eastern Marmara Seismic Gap: The August 2026 Earthquake Cluster and Its Implications for Seismic Hazard near Istanbul
Published: 2026-08-21
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering Science and Materials, Environmental Sciences, Geotechnical Engineering, Higher Education, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Engineering, Risk Analysis, Science and Mathematics Education, Structural Engineering
The eastern Marmara Sea and Adalar sector lie close to İstanbul and the western North Anatolian Fault, where earthquake-source processes interact with strong basin and site effects. This study integrates a reconciled earthquake catalog, waveform-quality measures, spatial statistics, trial hypocentral relocation, reconnaissance focal mechanisms, point-source Coulomb stress screening, and published [...]
Mineral stability and porosity dynamics in Halite- and Kainite-bearing rocks after hydrogen batch reaction test: a case study of Realmonte mine, Sicily (Italy)
Published: 2026-08-21
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Mineral Physics, Mining Engineering, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Risk Analysis, Stratigraphy, Sustainability
Underground hydrogen storage in salt caverns is among the most mature geological storage options, yet the behaviour of potash-salt lithologies under hydrogen exposure remains entirely uncharacterised. This study presents a multi-technique characterisation, performed on selected representative samples, of Messinian halite and kainite-bearing evaporites from the Realmonte mine (Sicily) subjected to [...]
ECMWF SEAS5 Seasonal Precipitation Outlook and Hydrological-Hydrogeological Assessment for the Middle East: August 2026-January 2027
Published: 2026-08-17
Subjects: Agriculture, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Food Science, Higher Education, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Risk Analysis
This preprint presents a regional hydrological and hydrogeological interpretation of the ECMWF SEAS5 System 51 ensemble-mean precipitation forecast initialized on 1 August 2026 for the Middle East and adjacent portions of the analysis domain. The supplied NetCDF field is time-mean total precipitation rate (tprate; m s^-1), converted to monthly precipitation depth (mm/month) using the actual [...]
ECMWF SEAS5 Seasonal Precipitation Outlook and Preliminary Rainfall-Based Flood Screening for Iraq: October 2026–January 2027
Published: 2026-08-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Risk Analysis
This preprint provides a hydrological and hydrogeological interpretation of ECMWF SEAS5 monthly precipitation forecasts for Iraq from October 2026 through January 2027. The analysis uses the ECMWF System 51 ensemble mean initialized on 1 August 2026. The downloaded time-mean total precipitation rate was converted from metres per second to monthly precipitation depth in millimetres using the [...]
Atmospheric Mineral Carbonation and the Case against Ca(OH)₂ Dispersal: A Four-Barrier Feasibility Analysis
Published: 2026-07-16
Subjects: Risk Analysis
Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are essential for climate stabilization, yet chemical plausibility does not guarantee practical viability. The atmospheric dispersal of Ca(OH)₂ exemplifies this gap. While the carbonation reaction is permanent and chemically straightforward, its deployment faces four critical barriers: a carbon-positive production cycle, uncontrollable ecological [...]
A pipeline for representing buildings as fuels in wildland urban fire spread and risk modeling
Published: 2026-07-10
Subjects: Categorical Data Analysis, Databases and Information Systems, Engineering, Geographic Information Sciences, Mechanical Engineering, Nature and Society Relations, Other Engineering, Other Environmental Sciences, Other Mechanical Engineering, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physical and Environmental Geography, Risk Analysis, Software Engineering, Spatial Science
Wildfires pose an increasing risk to structures and communities located adjacent to or among vegetative landscapes. Yet most open landscape-scale fire modeling workflows still lack a reproducible way to represent buildings as combustible fuels rather than only as exposed assets or nonburnable developed land. This paper presents FireDX, a geospatial data engine that generates standardized, [...]
Beyond a Single Risk Score: Posterior Rank Uncertainty in Wildfire Exposure of Transmission Corridors
Published: 2026-07-09
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Risk Analysis
Transmission-line wildfire risk management frequently demands segment-level priority triage, whereas records regarding equipment status, power outages and routine inspections remain non-public. This study establishes a reproducible framework relying solely on publicly accessible datasets to conduct retrospective external wildfire exposure ranking for transmission line segments across California. [...]
Probabilistic Regional Conditioning of Natural Hazard Loss Models
Published: 2026-06-26
Subjects: Environmental Studies, Hydrology, Risk Analysis
Natural hazard risk models underpin decisions from insurance pricing to infrastructure investment, yet their accuracy depends on vulnerability functions rarely calibrated to local conditions. The most accurate vulnerability functions capture regional building characteristics through multi-variable models or large engineering-based loss-function databases, but need detailed asset-level data that [...]
A 10,000-Year Global Stochastic Tropical Cyclone Catalog with Wind-Dependent Track Transitions (WHITS)
Published: 2026-05-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Risk Analysis
Reliable assessment of tropical cyclone risk is limited by the short and spatially uneven historical record, especially for rare, high-intensity landfalls that dominate insured loss. We present WHITS, the Wind-focused Hurricane Interactive Track Simulator, a non-parametric semi-Markov model that generates a 10,000-year global synthetic catalog of tropical cyclone tracks. WHITS builds new storms [...]
Simulation-Based Sensitivity Analysis of Check-Dam Height Effects on Downstream Debris-Flow Depth for Structural Countermeasure Scenarios
Published: 2026-05-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Other Engineering, Risk Analysis
Check dams can influence debris-flow propagation, but their effects may depend on location, height, and local topographic conditions. This study evaluates the sensitivity of downstream debris-flow depth to check-dam height scenarios using numerical simulations of a mountainous catchment in Atami, Japan. Six hypothetical check-dam locations were placed along the torrent, and 4,877 valid cases were [...]
The Role of Humidity in Past and Future Fire Weather Trends in the Contiguous United States
Published: 2026-05-06
Subjects: Other Earth Sciences, Risk Analysis
There has been evidence of increasing fire activity in the United States since approximately the 1980s, now estimated to cause tens to hundreds of billions of dollars of damage per year. Weather is one of the key drivers of fire activity, with hot, dry, and windy weather commonly associated with high-risk conditions. We are still, however, developing an understanding of how these weather [...]
Towards Prospective Disaster Risk Management: Mapping Multi-hazard Urban Risk Dynamics Driven by Evolving Exposure and Vulnerability via Earth Observation
Published: 2026-04-30
Subjects: Categorical Data Analysis, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Geographic Information Sciences, Human Geography, Other Computer Sciences, Physical and Environmental Geography, Remote Sensing, Risk Analysis, Spatial Science, Structural Engineering
As local governments increasingly adopt geospatial Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA) to inform prospective public policy, the reliability of existing static risk intelligence is challenged by the continuous evolution of building exposure, population distribution, and physical vulnerability. Recent multi-temporal datasets of the built environment, derived from Earth Observation, have [...]