Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Risk Analysis
What has Global Sensitivity Analysis ever done for us? A systematic review to support scientific advancement and to inform policy-making in earth system modelling
Published: 2019-04-08
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Life Sciences, Mathematics, Medicine and Health Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability
Computer models are essential tools in the earth system sciences. They underpin our search for understanding of earth system functioning and support decision- and policy-making across spatial and temporal scales. To understand the implications of uncertainty and environmental variability on the identification of such earth system models and their predictions, we can rely on increasingly powerful [...]
Matlab/R workflows to assess critical choices in Global Sensitivity Analysis using the SAFE toolbox
Published: 2019-04-05
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability
Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) is a set of statistical techniques to investigate the effects of the uncertainty in the input factors of a mathematical model on the model’s outputs. The value of GSA for the construction, evaluation, and improvement of earth system models is reviewed in a companion paper by Wagener and Pianosi [n.d.]. The present paper focuses on the implementation of GSA and [...]
Vulnerability of Louisiana’s coastal wetlands to present-day rates of relative sea-level rise
Published: 2018-09-30
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Sedimentology, Soil Science, Stratigraphy, Sustainability
Coastal Louisiana has lost about 5,000km2 of wetlands over the past century and concern exists whether remaining wetlands will persist while facing some of the world’s highest rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Here we analyse an unprecedented data set derived from 274 rod surface-elevation table-marker horizon stations, to determine present-day surface-elevation change, vertical accretion [...]
HYRISK: An R package for hybrid uncertainty analysis using probability, imprecise probability and possibility distributions
Published: 2018-08-31
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Engineering, Ordinary Differential Equations and Applied Dynamics, Other Applied Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis
Uncertainty analysis is an unavoidable risk assessment task (for instance for natural hazards, or for environmental issues). In situations where data are scarce, incomplete or imprecise, the systematic and only use of probabilities can be debatable. Over the last years, several alternative mathematical representation methods have been developed to handle in a more flexible manner the lack of [...]
Communicating Unnatural Disasters
Published: 2018-01-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Studies, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Off the back of the 2017 hurricanes we extend the notion of human-influenced meteo-hydro hazards to include deeper geophysical events. We question where to place Human responsibility in a changing world, and we outline ways to bridge the gaps between scientist’s technical knowledge and ‘meaning’ as it is understood by people at risk. This short Op-ed has been rejected by Science after two rounds [...]
A general model for the helical structure of geophysical flows in channel bends
Published: 2017-10-31
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Fluid Dynamics, Geology, Geomorphology, Geophysics and Seismology, Hydrology, Life Sciences, Natural Resources and Conservation, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics, Risk Analysis, Sedimentology
Meandering channels host geophysical flows that form the most extensive sediment transport systems on Earth (i.e. rivers and submarine channels). Measurements of helical flow structures in bends have been key to understanding sediment transport in rivers. Turbidity currents differ from rivers in both density and velocity profiles. These differences, and the lack of field measurements of turbidity [...]