Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Risk Analysis
Fire From Volcanic Activity: Quantifying the threat from an understudied hazard
Published: 2022-10-30
Subjects: Risk Analysis, Volcanology
Fire from volcanic activity (FFVA) is a highly dangerous and largely understudied hazard arising from volcanic activity. FFVA can be caused by a variety of volcanic hazards and can greatly compound the damage and losses associated with volcanic activity, in addition to creating complications for event response and mitigation. In this study, we develop a FFVA ignition probability model underpinned [...]
Meteorological Drivers of Resource Adequacy Failures in Current and High Renewable Western U.S. Power Systems
Published: 2022-08-31
Subjects: Climate, Meteorology, Power and Energy, Risk Analysis
Power system resource adequacy (RA), or its ability to continually balance energy supply and demand, underpins human and economic health. How meteorology affects RA and RA failures, particularly with increasing penetrations of renewables, is poorly understood. We characterize large-scale circulation patterns that drive RA failures in the Western U.S. at increasing wind and solar penetrations by [...]
Rising hazard of storm surge is consistent with sea level trend and caused by intensification and widening of tropical cyclone in Japan
Published: 2022-08-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Risk Analysis
Variability in storminess, storm surge, and mean sea level (MSL) can substantially alter coastal hazards associated with extreme sea levels (ESL). However, detection and attribution of past changes in tropical cyclone (TC) and related storm surge activity are hampered by inhomogeneous TC records due to changes in observational capabilities. Here we investigate spatiotemporal changes in storm [...]
A Generalized Natural Hazard Risk Modelling Framework for Infrastructure Failure Cascades
Published: 2022-05-19
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Risk Analysis
Critical infrastructures are more exposed than ever to natural hazards in a changing climate. To understand and manage risk, failure cascades across large, real-world infrastructure networks, and their impact on people, must be captured. Bridging established methods in both infrastructure and risk modelling communities, we develop an open-source modelling framework which integrates a [...]
Multilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for assessing coastal flood risk
Published: 2022-03-14
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Risk Analysis, Statistical Methodology, Statistics and Probability
When choosing an appropriate hydrodynamic model, there is always a compromise between accuracy and computational cost, with high fidelity models being more expensive than low fidelity ones. However, when assessing uncertainty, we can use a multifidelity approach to take advantage of the accuracy of high fidelity models and the computational efficiency of low fidelity models. Here, we apply the [...]
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate risk modelling: an implementation in CLIMADA v.3.1.
Published: 2022-02-23
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Design of Experiments and Sample Surveys, Earth Sciences, Environmental Studies, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Nature and Society Relations, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Risk Analysis, Statistical Methodology
Modelling the risk of natural hazards for society, ecosystems, and the economy is subject to strong uncertainties, even more so in the context of a changing climate, evolving societies, growing economies, and declining ecosystems. Here we present a new feature of the climate risk modelling platform CLIMADA which allows to carry out global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. CLIMADA underpins [...]
Climate-Catchment-Soil Control on Hydrological Droughts in Peninsular India
Published: 2022-01-28
Subjects: Bioresource and Agricultural Engineering, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Mathematics, Risk Analysis
Most land surface system models and observational assessments ignore detailed soil characteristics while describing the drought attributes such as growth, duration, recovery, and the termination rate of the event. With the national-scale digital soil maps available for India, we assessed the climate-catchment-soil nexus using daily observed streamflow records from 98 sites in tropical [...]
Urban Flood Impact Assessment and Hazard Vulnerability Analysis: Iowa Case Study
Published: 2022-01-27
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Risk Analysis
Flooding is one of the most common natural disasters affecting communities worldwide. It is expected to persist with increasing magnitude and frequency as a result of climate change, resulting in both direct and indirect negative consequences. The flood impact assessment is considered as a key component of flood risk management strategies, such as benefit-cost analysis for mitigation planning. [...]
Flood Risk Assessment and Quantification at the Community and Property Level in the State of Iowa
Published: 2021-10-28
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Risk Analysis
Flood risk assessment contributes to identifying at-risk communities and supports mitigation decisions to maximize benefits from the investments. Large-scale risk assessments generate invaluable inputs for prioritizing regions for the distribution of limited resources. High-resolution flood maps and accurate parcel information are critical for flood risk analysis to generate reliable outcomes for [...]
Flood Mitigation Data Analytics and Decision Support Framework: Iowa Middle Cedar Watershed Case Study
Published: 2021-10-23
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Risk Analysis
Flooding is one of the most frequent natural disasters, causing billions of dollars in damage and threatening vulnerable communities worldwide. Although the impact of flooding can never be diminished, minimizing future losses is possible by taking structural or non-structural mitigation actions. Mitigation applications are often costly practices. However, they can be more feasible for long-term [...]
The Impact of Neglecting Climate Change and Variability on ERCOT’s Forecasts of Electricity Demand in Texas
Published: 2021-09-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Studies, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Risk Analysis
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) manages the electric power across most of Texas. They make short-term assessments of electricity demand based on historical weather over the last decade or two, thereby ignoring the effects of climate change and the possibility of weather variability outside of the recent historical range. In this paper, we develop an empirical methodology to [...]
Tropical Cyclones Affecting Tokyo and Changing Storm Surge Hazard since 1980
Published: 2021-09-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Risk Analysis
This study investigated tidal records and landfall tropical cyclone (TC) best tracks in Japan from 1980 to 2019 to determine changes in storm surge heights in coastal regions of eastern Japan, including Tokyo. The results indicate that annual mean storm surge heights have increased in the last 20 years (2000–2019) compared to those in 1980–1999, and that these changes are noteworthy, particularly [...]
De-risking the energy transition by quantifying the uncertainties in fault stability
Published: 2021-07-26
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Other Engineering, Risk Analysis
The operations needed to decarbonise our energy systems increasingly involve faulted rocks in the subsurface. To manage the technical challenges presented by these rocks and the justifiable public concern over induced seismicity, we need to assess the risks. Widely used measures for fault stability, including slip and dilation tendency and fracture susceptibility, can be combined with Response [...]
A new tropical cyclone surge index incorporating the effects of coastal geometry, bathymetry and storm information
Published: 2021-06-14
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Risk Analysis
This study presents a new storm surge hazard potential index (SSHPI) for estimating tropical cyclone (TC) induced maximum surge levels at a coast. The SSHPI incorporates parameters that are often readily available at real-time: intensity in 10-minute maximum wind speed, radius of 50-kt wind, translation speed, coastal geometry, and bathymetry information. The inclusion of translation speed and [...]
How unprecedented was the February 2021 Texas cold snap?
Published: 2021-02-28
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Risk Analysis
Winter storm Uri brought severe cold to the southern United States in February 2021, causing a cascading failure of interdependent systems in Texas where infrastructure was not adequately prepared for such cold. In particular, the failure of interconnected energy systems restricted electricity supply just as demand for heating spiked, leaving millions of Texans without heat or electricity, many [...]