Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Risk Analysis
Strategic Logic of Unilateral Climate Intervention
Published: 2023-05-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, International and Area Studies, Other Statistics and Probability, Risk Analysis
Climate change and unabated greenhouse gas emissions are increasing the possibility that the world will turn to climate intervention to curb ever-increasing global temperatures. To date, most work on this topic has imagined that an international organization like the United Nations or an international coalition of states will synchronize their efforts to deploy climate intervention at ideal [...]
Global multi-hazard risk assessment in a changing climate
Published: 2023-04-20
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Risk Analysis
Natural hazards pose significant risks to people and assets in many regions of the world. Quantifying associated risks is crucial for many applications such as adaptation option appraisal and insurance pricing. However, traditional risk assessment approaches have focused on the impacts of single hazards, ignoring the effects of multi-hazard risks and potentially leading to underestimations or [...]
Has Tropical Cyclone Disaster Risk Increased in Bangladesh: Retrospective Analysis of Storm Information, Disaster Statistics, and Mitigation Measures
Published: 2023-03-31
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Tropical cyclone (TC) disaster risk has likely increased in Bangladesh since the beginning of the 21st century. It is primarily due to the cumulative impact of rising coastal exposures such as population, insufficient funding to address disaster risks, and ineffective utilization of century-old early warning signals for TC. From 2000 to 2020, the average number of people affected by a Category [...]
Geo-Spatial Analysis of Built-Environment Exposure to Flooding: Iowa Case Study
Published: 2023-03-15
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Risk Analysis
Flooding is the most frequent type of natural disaster, inducing devastating damages at large and small spatial scales. Flood exposure analysis is a critical part of flood risk assessment. While most studies analyze the exposure elements separately, it is crucial to perform a multi-parameter exposure analysis and consider different types of flood zones to gain a comprehensive understanding of the [...]
A Web-based Analytical Urban Flood Damage and Loss Estimation Framework
Published: 2022-12-04
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Risk Analysis, Systems and Communications
Information and communication technology serves a crucial role in communicating flood risk and consequences to a broad range of stakeholders and facilitating mitigation decisions. While studies extensively utilize flood inundation maps for communicating flood risks, there is a need to integrate a broad spectrum of physical vulnerability parameters into risk estimates at various spatial scales. [...]
Fire From Volcanic Activity: Quantifying the threat from an understudied hazard
Published: 2022-10-30
Subjects: Risk Analysis, Volcanology
Fire from volcanic activity (FFVA) is a highly dangerous and largely understudied hazard arising from volcanic activity. FFVA can be caused by a variety of volcanic hazards and can greatly compound the damage and losses associated with volcanic activity, in addition to creating complications for event response and mitigation. In this study, we develop a FFVA ignition probability model underpinned [...]
Meteorological Drivers of Resource Adequacy Failures in Current and High Renewable Western U.S. Power Systems
Published: 2022-08-31
Subjects: Climate, Meteorology, Power and Energy, Risk Analysis
Power system resource adequacy (RA), or its ability to continually balance energy supply and demand, underpins human and economic health. How meteorology affects RA and RA failures, particularly with increasing penetrations of renewables, is poorly understood. We characterize large-scale circulation patterns that drive RA failures in the Western U.S. at increasing wind and solar penetrations by [...]
Rising hazard of storm surge is consistent with sea level trend and caused by intensification and widening of tropical cyclone in Japan
Published: 2022-08-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Risk Analysis
Variability in storminess, storm surge, and mean sea level (MSL) can substantially alter coastal hazards associated with extreme sea levels (ESL). However, detection and attribution of past changes in tropical cyclone (TC) and related storm surge activity are hampered by inhomogeneous TC records due to changes in observational capabilities. Here we investigate spatiotemporal changes in storm [...]
A Generalized Natural Hazard Risk Modelling Framework for Infrastructure Failure Cascades
Published: 2022-05-19
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Risk Analysis
Critical infrastructures are more exposed than ever to natural hazards in a changing climate. To understand and manage risk, failure cascades across large, real-world infrastructure networks, and their impact on people, must be captured. Bridging established methods in both infrastructure and risk modelling communities, we develop an open-source modelling framework which integrates a [...]
Multilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for assessing coastal flood risk
Published: 2022-03-14
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Risk Analysis, Statistical Methodology, Statistics and Probability
When choosing an appropriate hydrodynamic model, there is always a compromise between accuracy and computational cost, with high fidelity models being more expensive than low fidelity ones. However, when assessing uncertainty, we can use a multifidelity approach to take advantage of the accuracy of high fidelity models and the computational efficiency of low fidelity models. Here, we apply the [...]
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate risk modelling: an implementation in CLIMADA v.3.1.
Published: 2022-02-23
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Design of Experiments and Sample Surveys, Earth Sciences, Environmental Studies, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Nature and Society Relations, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Risk Analysis, Statistical Methodology
Modelling the risk of natural hazards for society, ecosystems, and the economy is subject to strong uncertainties, even more so in the context of a changing climate, evolving societies, growing economies, and declining ecosystems. Here we present a new feature of the climate risk modelling platform CLIMADA which allows to carry out global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. CLIMADA underpins [...]
Climate-Catchment-Soil Control on Hydrological Droughts in Peninsular India
Published: 2022-01-28
Subjects: Bioresource and Agricultural Engineering, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Mathematics, Risk Analysis
Most land surface system models and observational assessments ignore detailed soil characteristics while describing the drought attributes such as growth, duration, recovery, and the termination rate of the event. With the national-scale digital soil maps available for India, we assessed the climate-catchment-soil nexus using daily observed streamflow records from 98 sites in tropical [...]
Urban Flood Impact Assessment and Hazard Vulnerability Analysis: Iowa Case Study
Published: 2022-01-27
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Risk Analysis
Flooding is one of the most common natural disasters affecting communities worldwide. It is expected to persist with increasing magnitude and frequency as a result of climate change, resulting in both direct and indirect negative consequences. The flood impact assessment is considered as a key component of flood risk management strategies, such as benefit-cost analysis for mitigation planning. [...]
Flood Risk Assessment and Quantification at the Community and Property Level in the State of Iowa
Published: 2021-10-27
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Risk Analysis
Flood risk assessment contributes to identifying at-risk communities and supports mitigation decisions to maximize benefits from the investments. Large-scale risk assessments generate invaluable inputs for prioritizing regions for the distribution of limited resources. High-resolution flood maps and accurate parcel information are critical for flood risk analysis to generate reliable outcomes for [...]
Flood Mitigation Data Analytics and Decision Support Framework: Iowa Middle Cedar Watershed Case Study
Published: 2021-10-23
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Studies, Geographic Information Sciences, Risk Analysis
Flooding is one of the most frequent natural disasters, causing billions of dollars in damage and threatening vulnerable communities worldwide. Although the impact of flooding can never be diminished, minimizing future losses is possible by taking structural or non-structural mitigation actions. Mitigation applications are often costly practices. However, they can be more feasible for long-term [...]