Preprints
Filtering by Subject: Risk Analysis
Integrating Climate Risk into Long-Term Energy Planning: A Critical Review
Published: 2023-07-14
Subjects: Civil Engineering, Earth Sciences, Power and Energy, Risk Analysis
Electricity systems face substantial and growing climate risks which are escalating due to electrification, renewable energy intermittency, population changes, and the intensifying impacts of climate change such as extreme temperatures and weather-induced infrastructure damage. This critical review investigates climate risks to the electricity sector and scrutinizes the methodologies used to [...]
CLIMATIC DETERMINANTS OF COVID-19 CASES AND DEATHS IN UGANDA: 2020-2022
Published: 2023-07-13
Subjects: Risk Analysis
Background: Infectious diseases have proven to be among the greatest challenges to life in the Anthropocene era. Their repeated and cyclical occurrences coupled with varying variants, and rapidly changing climatic conditions within this century threaten to take the world back to the “pre-development era” in the absence of corrective measures. We designed a research study to determine the [...]
Assessing Precipitation Trends that may inform Aging Dam Overtopping across the USA
Published: 2023-07-07
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Climate, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Risk Analysis
In many cases, persistent or recurrent synoptic circulation patterns lead to multiple wet days that precede an extreme rainfall event. The joint occurrence of high antecedent rainfall and extreme rainfall defines a compound event that may pose a high risk for overtopping of aging dams. Our novel analysis assesses whether there are significant trends across the conterminous United States (CONUS) [...]
OpenStreetMap for Multi-Faceted Climate Risk Assessments
Published: 2023-06-28
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Geographic Information Sciences, Risk Analysis
Natural hazards pose significant risks to human lives, infrastructure, and ecosystems, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of climate risks for effective adaptation planning and risk management. However, climate risk assessments mostly focus on economic asset values and infrastructures such as roads and buildings, because publicly available data on more diverse exposures are scarce. The [...]
Global protection from tropical cyclones by coastal ecosystems - past, present, and under climate change
Published: 2023-06-27
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Nature and Society Relations, Risk Analysis
Coastal ecosystems have the potential to contribute to disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. While previous studies have estimated the value of current coastal ecosystems for reducing coastal risk, there have been relatively few studies that look at changes in ecosystem service provision, in the past and under climate change. We employ the probabilistic, event-based CLIMADA [...]
Non-structural Flood Mitigation Optimization at Community Scale: Middle Cedar Case Study
Published: 2023-06-07
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Risk Analysis
Flooding is the leading natural hazard in Iowa and has resulted in billions of dollars of damage to properties and critical infrastructure over the past couple of decades. Land alterations, urbanization, and changing precipitation regimes increase the magnitude and frequency of flood events. Considering the increasing risk, flood mitigation efforts are significant to reduce future losses. In this [...]
Strategic Logic of Unilateral Climate Intervention
Published: 2023-05-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, International and Area Studies, Other Statistics and Probability, Risk Analysis
Climate change and unabated greenhouse gas emissions are increasing the possibility that the world will turn to climate intervention to curb ever-increasing global temperatures. To date, most work on this topic has imagined that an international organization like the United Nations or an international coalition of states will synchronize their efforts to deploy climate intervention at ideal [...]
Global multi-hazard risk assessment in a changing climate
Published: 2023-04-20
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Numerical Analysis and Scientific Computing, Risk Analysis
Natural hazards pose significant risks to people and assets in many regions of the world. Quantifying associated risks is crucial for many applications such as adaptation option appraisal and insurance pricing. However, traditional risk assessment approaches have focused on the impacts of single hazards, ignoring the effects of multi-hazard risks and potentially leading to underestimations or [...]
Has Tropical Cyclone Disaster Risk Increased in Bangladesh: Retrospective Analysis of Storm Information, Disaster Statistics, and Mitigation Measures
Published: 2023-03-31
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Tropical cyclone (TC) disaster risk has likely increased in Bangladesh since the beginning of the 21st century. It is primarily due to the cumulative impact of rising coastal exposures such as population, insufficient funding to address disaster risks, and ineffective utilization of century-old early warning signals for TC. From 2000 to 2020, the average number of people affected by a Category [...]
Geo-Spatial Analysis of Built-Environment Exposure to Flooding: Iowa Case Study
Published: 2023-03-15
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Risk Analysis
Flooding is the most frequent type of natural disaster, inducing devastating damages at large and small spatial scales. Flood exposure analysis is a critical part of flood risk assessment. While most studies analyze the exposure elements separately, it is crucial to perform a multi-parameter exposure analysis and consider different types of flood zones to gain a comprehensive understanding of the [...]
A Web-based Analytical Urban Flood Damage and Loss Estimation Framework
Published: 2022-12-03
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering, Engineering, Risk Analysis, Systems and Communications
Information and communication technology serves a crucial role in communicating flood risk and consequences to a broad range of stakeholders and facilitating mitigation decisions. While studies extensively utilize flood inundation maps for communicating flood risks, there is a need to integrate a broad spectrum of physical vulnerability parameters into risk estimates at various spatial scales. [...]
Fire From Volcanic Activity: Quantifying the threat from an understudied hazard
Published: 2022-10-30
Subjects: Risk Analysis, Volcanology
Fire from volcanic activity (FFVA) is a highly dangerous and largely understudied hazard arising from volcanic activity. FFVA can be caused by a variety of volcanic hazards and can greatly compound the damage and losses associated with volcanic activity, in addition to creating complications for event response and mitigation. In this study, we develop a FFVA ignition probability model underpinned [...]
Meteorological Drivers of Resource Adequacy Failures in Current and High Renewable Western U.S. Power Systems
Published: 2022-08-31
Subjects: Climate, Meteorology, Power and Energy, Risk Analysis
Power system resource adequacy (RA), or its ability to continually balance energy supply and demand, underpins human and economic health. How meteorology affects RA and RA failures, particularly with increasing penetrations of renewables, is poorly understood. We characterize large-scale circulation patterns that drive RA failures in the Western U.S. at increasing wind and solar penetrations by [...]
Rising hazard of storm surge is consistent with sea level trend and caused by intensification and widening of tropical cyclone in Japan
Published: 2022-08-23
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Risk Analysis
Variability in storminess, storm surge, and mean sea level (MSL) can substantially alter coastal hazards associated with extreme sea levels (ESL). However, detection and attribution of past changes in tropical cyclone (TC) and related storm surge activity are hampered by inhomogeneous TC records due to changes in observational capabilities. Here we investigate spatiotemporal changes in storm [...]
A Generalized Natural Hazard Risk Modelling Framework for Infrastructure Failure Cascades
Published: 2022-05-19
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Risk Analysis
Critical infrastructures are more exposed than ever to natural hazards in a changing climate. To understand and manage risk, failure cascades across large, real-world infrastructure networks, and their impact on people, must be captured. Bridging established methods in both infrastructure and risk modelling communities, we develop an open-source modelling framework which integrates a [...]