Preprints
There are 5432 Preprints listed.
Projecting Future Heat Stress Disparities to 2100 in the Contiguous United States
Published: 2023-07-09
Subjects: Social and Behavioral Sciences
Global warming increases health risks from heat exposure. Historical evidence suggests disproportionate impacts of heat exposure in different regions across socioeconomic groups in the US. However, little is known about the scale of potential disparities and which populations stand to be most vulnerable under different future climate scenarios. Here, we assess county-level heat exposure, measured [...]
Mitigation effectiveness on groundwater-dependent ecosystems revealed by counterfactual AI
Published: 2023-07-09
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Environmental Engineering, Hydrology, Sustainability, Water Resource Management
Overexploitation of groundwater threatens groundwater-bound aquatic and terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem stability, underscoring the need to devise appropriate mitigation strategies. Yet, substantial scientific evidence that mitigation measures effectively protect groundwater ecosystems is presently nonexistent. We provide unique and compelling evidence, using counterfactual artificial [...]
Heuristic Data-inspired Scheme to Characterize Meteorological and Groundwater Droughts in Semi-arid Karstic Region under Warming Climate
Published: 2023-07-08
Subjects: Environmental Engineering, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Hydrology
Study region The Edwards Aquifer Region is located in south-central Texas, United States. Study focus The paper focuses on the development and implementation of a data-inspired heuristic drought identification scheme to (i) quantify the intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation deficit- and high temperature-driven meteorological droughts (PMet- and TMet-droughts), and (ii) link [...]
Optimising the value of a CO2 Water-Alternating-Gas injection project under geological and economic uncertainties using an improved artificial neural network.
Published: 2023-07-08
Subjects: Engineering, Other Engineering
The numerical simulations required for the robust optimisation of the alternating injection of water and CO2 in hydrocarbon reservoirs are computationally expensive due to engineering, geological, and economic uncertainties. Using approximation models of the desired objective function(s) can significantly decrease the cost associated with the optimisation routines while providing an adequate [...]
Moral Hazards and Geoengineering: Evidence from a Large-Scale Online Experiment
Published: 2023-07-08
Subjects: Social and Behavioral Sciences
Geoengineering (especially solar radiation management) may help to reduce the negative outcomes of climate change by minimising or reversing global warming. However, many express the worry that geoengineering may pose a moral hazard, i.e., that information about geoengineering may lead to a reduction in climate change mitigation efforts. In this paper, we report a large-scale pre-registered, [...]
Transporting Heat Flux From the US and Europe to Antarctica Guided by Regional Seismic Structure
Published: 2023-07-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Subglacial geothermal heat flux affects the dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet but is poorly known. We estimate heat flux across West Antarctica and the interior of East Antarctica by transporting heat flux observations from the contiguous US and Europe, based on seismic structure with a lateral resolution of about \qty{100}{km}. We transport with three Machine Learning models across a hierarchy [...]
Sequence stratigraphy of the Eocene-Miocene Mrayt Group, North-Western Rif (Morocco)
Published: 2023-07-07
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Detailed sequence stratigraphy of the Eocene-Miocene Mrayt Group in North-Western Rif (Morocco), allow identifying the nature and the sources of the sediment supplies, the sedimentary facies and the depositional environments as well as the factors that controlled the sedimentation. This work made it also possible to identify 16 facies sequences that have never been described before. facies [...]
Improved representation of laminar and turbulent sheet flow in subglacial drainage models
Published: 2023-07-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Subglacial hydrology models struggle to reproduce seasonal drainage patterns that are consistent with observed subglacial water pressures and surface velocities. We modify the standard sheet-flow parameterization within a coupled sheet--channel subglacial drainage model to smoothly transition between laminar and turbulent flow based on the locally computed Reynolds number in a physically [...]
Demystifying the Dynamics of Global and Regional Sea Level Trends from 1993 to 2021
Published: 2023-07-07
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Models
As global sea levels rise, questions persist about the robustness of trends and their dynamics. Here, we offer a fresh perspective by examining the dynamics of global and regional mean sea-level trends using a probabilistic framework applied to the altimetric record. We show that the global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise accelerated from 2.5 mm/yr (1993-2000) to 4.2 mm/yr (2014-2021) with an average [...]
Assessing Precipitation Trends that may inform Aging Dam Overtopping across the USA
Published: 2023-07-07
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Climate, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Risk Analysis
In many cases, persistent or recurrent synoptic circulation patterns lead to multiple wet days that precede an extreme rainfall event. The joint occurrence of high antecedent rainfall and extreme rainfall defines a compound event that may pose a high risk for overtopping of aging dams. Our novel analysis assesses whether there are significant trends across the conterminous United States (CONUS) [...]
Differential effects of climate change on average and peak demand for heating and cooling across the contiguous United States
Published: 2023-07-07
Subjects: Engineering
While most electricity systems are designed to handle peak demand during summer months, pathways to deep decarbonization generally electrify building heating, thus increasing electricity demand during winter. A key question is how climate variability and change will affect peak heating and cooling demand in an electrified future. We conduct a spatially explicit analysis of trends in [...]
Theoretical and experimental modeling of local scale CO2 flushing of hydrous rhyolitic magma
Published: 2023-07-07
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Flushing of hydrous silicic magmas with crustal carbonic fluid may be an important factor controlling the explosiveness of rhyolitic eruptions. We present combined theoretical and experimental study of the interaction of carbonic fluid with a hydrous silicic melt. The process of diffusional equilibration of a CO2 bubble with a silicic melt was simulated numerically in the spherical approximation. [...]
ANSEICCA: a Python package for seismic ambient noise source inversion by cross-correlation modelling
Published: 2023-07-06
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We present ANSEICCA, an open-source package for forward and inverse modelling of seismic ambient noise cross-correlations at local scales, where the effects of Earth's sphericity are negligible. The package implements a nonlinear finite-frequency inversion technique wherein measurements of cross-correlation energy are used to invert for the spatial distribution of ambient noise sources, under the [...]
Ensemble of land-surface air temperatures between 1880-2022 using a revised pair-wise homogenization algorithm
Published: 2023-07-06
Subjects: Climate, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Various observational estimates of historical land surface air temperature (LSAT) trends differ on account of differences in corrections. Relative to the most-recent estimate provided by NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network Monthly Version 4 (GHCNm4), an estimate by Berkeley Earth is 0.02°C warmer and one by the Climate Research Unit (CRUTEM5) is 0.14°C warmer between 1880–1940. Such [...]
Rebuilding Coral Reefs: How tourism can be a driver behind solutions in a changing ocean
Published: 2023-07-06
Subjects: Marine Biology
Coral reefs are threatened by multiple stressors that have driven a decline in the cover of reef-building coral species, resulting in a loss of reef structure and function. Restoration reef science provides useful conservation tools to preserve and restore the key species and ecological functions of these ecosystems. However, gaps remain in restoring ecosystem functions at large scales. This [...]