Preprints
There are 7764 Preprints listed.
Asthenosphere rheology and the continental-scale interseismic deformation driven by repeated megathrust earthquakes: Insights from the South American plate
Published: 2026-09-04
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology
This study presents a framework for quantifying large-scale interseismic deformation of a tectonic plate overlying a viscoelastic asthenosphere. We explain and compare four common methods for modelling upper-plate surface deformation induced by time-dependent slip on the subduction interface. One method is a widely used, purely elastic model. The other three are viscoelastic models, in which slip [...]
Typhoons reseal mountain groundwater systems after earthquake damage
Published: 2026-09-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Bedrock groundwater supplies drinking water to half the global population, and earthquakes can disrupt this resource for years by changing subsurface permeability. Previous studies proposed several mechanisms to explain coseismic permeability changes but lacked an observational tool to distinguish them; moreover, all assumed an immediate onset. Here, we analyse groundwater and seismic data from [...]
Isochrone overturning in steady glacier flow
Published: 2026-09-04
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Ancient ice recovered at Allan Hills extends into the Miocene, but steep layers, age reversals and folds complicate its interpretation. Whether steady glacier flow can overturn initially ordered layers remains uncertain. Here, we track the horizontal order of particles deposited sequentially at the surface. This order is measured by a signed Jacobian that is equivalent to the inverse [...]
Reimagining Multifunctional Green Space Design Approaches in Climate Resilient Cities
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Sciences, Sustainability
Urban landscapes exacerbate the impacts of extreme temperatures and weather, and are hotspots for air pollution, flooding, and temperature spikes. Natural systems such as multifunctional green spaces can play a key role in protecting vulnerable urban landscapes while also improving urban livability.
Automated identification, industrial attribution and conditional emission-rate quantification of recurrent CO enhancement source regions from TROPOMI observations
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Remote Sensing
The TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) repeatedly measures global carbon monoxide (CO) total columns, but industrial CO studies generally begin with known cities or facilities; a general method is therefore needed to discover where enhancements recur globally. We developed an automated workflow that searches without facility coordinates. A weakly supervised model screens scenes for [...]
Simulation analysis method of drainage system of tideland paddy zone
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The tideland paddy zone drainage system plays an important role in preventing flood damage and protecting the tideland paddy zone by draining the rainwater from the paddy zones and the surrounding catchments in good time. Therefore, scientific design of drainage system and accurate assessment of drainage capacity in tideland paddy zones are important for sustainable development in agricultural [...]
Modelling Winter Atmospheric River Frequency over the Western Himalayas Using Large-Scale Climate Modes Via Statistical Approach
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Winter Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) contribute substantially to precipitation in the Western Himalayas, but how large-scale climate modes jointly influence their frequency remains unclear. In this study, we use a statistical method that combines correlation, phase-composite analysis of Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT), and predictive models such as linear regression, Generalized Linear Models (GLMs), [...]
The importance of ice shelf melt rate distributions in modelling of Antarctic ice loss
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Glaciology, Oceanography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Ocean-induced basal melting of ice shelves is a major cause of Antarctic ice loss. It is well known that the magnitude of this melt is an important factor to consider when modelling the future evolution of the ice sheet, and values of total melt volume or mean melt rates are often quoted for ice shelves. The finer detail of the distribution of this melt is usually given less attention. Here we [...]
Evaluating forecast baselines and network representativeness for daily PM2.5 in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Environmental Monitoring, Meteorology
An order-fair attribution of daily PM2.5 predictability in the Kathmandu Valley assigns 72% of achievable error reduction to persistence, 19% to meteorology and 9% to day-of-year climatology, with the latter two largely redundant; no fitted model, including random forests and gradient boosting tuned by nested chronological cross-validation, outperforms an unfitted lag-1 forecast (11.22 µg m-3). [...]
Multi-Sensor Satellite-Based Retrospective Early-Warning Assessment of the 26 August 2026 Flood Event in the Langtang Region of Nepal
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences
Rapid-onset floods in high-mountain environments can be difficult to anticipate because their triggering mechanisms may involve interactions among precipitation, glacierized terrain, surface-water dynamics, and sudden geomorphological disturbances. This study presents a retrospective multi-sensor satellite assessment of the flood event reported in the Langtang region of Nepal on 26 August 2026. [...]
Fault roughness as a driver of rupture complexity in fluid-induced microearthquakes
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Subsurface fluid-injection can induce microearthquakes whose rupture complexity and arrest mechanisms remain poorly understood, limiting our ability to assess the seismic hazard associated with geo-energy applications. We investigate how fault roughness modulates the response of fluid-pressurized faults using an ensemble of 1395 3D dynamic rupture simulations on self-similar rough faults, varying [...]
The Elastic Stiffness C13 in Transversely Isotropic Shales
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Shales are often anisotropic due to fine-scale layering and preferred alignment of clay particles with bedding. They may be approximated as transversely isotropic (TI) media with symmetry axis (x3) perpendicular to bedding. TI media have five independent elastic stiffnesses C11, C33, C55, C66 and C13, with C12 = C11−2C66. While C11, C33, C55 and C66 may be estimated from velocities measured [...]
ENSO, weather regimes, and U.S. heating degree days
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Heating degree days (HDDs; the number of degrees by which average daily temperature falls below 65°F) quantify heating demand and are used to manage weather-related financial risk. Here we examined the relation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with U.S. cold-season HDDs over the period 1979–2026 in NOAA Climate Division data and observations from stations that are used to settle publicly [...]
Post-Fire Resuspension of Metal Toxins at the Wildland–Urban Interface
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Medicine and Health Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
After wildland–urban interface (WUI) fires, the severe destruction leaves metal-containing materials on the ground. During post-fire recovery, wind, debris removal, vehicle movement, and reconstruction can disturb these residues and release these materials into the air. However, what toxic metals are released into the air from fire-altered materials and what controls their airborne release are [...]
Experiential and Collective Responses to Health Implications of Extreme Weather Events
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Education, Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Extreme weather events, including wildfires, are becoming more frequent, intense, and consequential for human health. Scientific advances have improved our ability to characterize hazards and the socioeconomic constraints shaping exposure, but these dimensions are not always integrated throughout the development of environmental health knowledge. Meanwhile, broader publics, although often not [...]