Preprints
There are 7955 Preprints listed.
Trigger or driver? Tracing the role of climate variability since the Little Ice Age in the abandonment of mountain villages in the Eastern Pyrenees: evidence from historical documents
Published: 2026-10-01
Subjects: Environmental Studies
In recent decades, rural depopulation has emerged as a widespread phenomenon across much of Europe, driven by shared underlying processes but shaped by region-specific dynamics. Understanding how climate variability interacts with socioeconomic dynamics to drive long-term settlement abandonment is critical in the context of current global change. High-mountain regions are particularly sensitive [...]
Soil pore architecture regulates carbon persistence via anaerobic microsites
Published: 2026-09-30
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Soil Science
Enhancing soil organic carbon (SOC) persistence in agricultural soils is a promising lever for climate mitigation, but realizing this potential depends on management practices that reliably promote SOC stabilization. Physical protection of organic compounds within soil aggregates is widely invoked to explain carbon stabilization under no-till farming, yet the role of pore architecture in [...]
Can recovered data-centre heat supply solid-sorbent direct air capture regeneration? A thermodynamic and carbon-accounting review of the proposed DACR–HSDC coupling, with falsifiable deployment gates
Published: 2026-09-30
Subjects: Education, Engineering, Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Abstract Background. Direct air capture (DAC) using temperature-vacuum swing adsorption requires electricity and low- to medium-temperature regeneration heat. Data centres reject heat that may be available for this purpose, but the temperature, timing and emissions intensity of that heat determine whether integration produces additional net atmospheric removal. An earlier design document by the [...]
Metal Toxin Signatures in the Smoke of Wildland–Urban Interface Fires
Published: 2026-09-30
Subjects: Medicine and Health Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Wildland–urban interface (WUI) fires burn natural and built environments simultaneously, generating smoke from vegetation, soil, buildings, vehicles, and infrastructure. Airborne metals can provide source signatures and pose inhalation hazards, yet the sources and physicochemical properties of these metals in WUI fire smoke remain poorly resolved. This uncertainty limits identification of burned [...]
Earthquake damage mapping from Sentinel-1 modeling against coherence damage proxy
Published: 2026-09-30
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This paper tests whether a supervised model that uses the same Sentinel-1 signal as the coherence damage proxy can rank earthquake damage better than the proxy itself. Damage grades from Copernicus EMS for four earthquakes are joined to 783 635 OpenStreet- Map footprints over 28 assessed areas, and the coherence drop is aggregated to buildings, morphological blocks and cells of 50 m to 400 m. A [...]
Super El Niño can raise coastal extreme sea-level risk tenfold
Published: 2026-09-30
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
El Niño-Southern Oscillation is a dominant mode of global climate variability with a range of societally relevant impacts. However, its effect on global coastal sea-level extremes remains poorly quantified, especially for very strong ("super") El Niños, which are rare. Here we analyse global reanalyses, hindcasts, and reconstructions to quantify how El Niño alters extreme sea level frequencies [...]
Transferability of ML emulators for polar RCM surface melt under different forcings: Limitations and recommendations
Published: 2026-09-30
Subjects: Climate, Glaciology
Machine learning emulators provide a computationally efficient alternative to physically based regional climate and surface mass balance models, but their applicability depends on their ability to generalize beyond training conditions. In this study, we assess the transferability of a melt emulator trained on output from the regional climate model HIRHAM5 forced by ERA-Interim, CESM2, and [...]
Annual mean methane emissions from individual oil-gas point sources worldwide inferred from multi-satellite plume-imaging observations
Published: 2026-09-30
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Plume-imaging satellite instruments routinely reveal large methane point source emissions from oil and gas systems. But the observations are for instantaneous plumes, and the instruments have limited detection and revisit capabilities, making it challenging to infer time-averaged emission rates as needed for emission inventories and reporting. Here we develop a general method to infer the [...]
Light- and CO2-dependent carbon isotope fractionation in the β-cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp. PCC 7002
Published: 2026-09-30
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Earth Sciences
Carbon isotope fractionation during photosynthetic carbon fixation by phytoplankton (εₚ) underpins proxies for reconstructing past atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. The interpretation of εₚ is commonly based on steady-state flux-balance models that link isotopic fractionation to the balance between cellular carbon demand and supply, with Rubisco carboxylation providing the primary fractionating [...]
From Pixels to Mobile Pastoral Households: Scale Mismatch, Exposure Measurement, and Inference in Mongolian Rangeland Research
Published: 2026-09-30
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences
Spatially explicit Earth-observation products and machine-learning models increasingly support detailed monitoring of vegetation productivity and land-surface dynamics across Mongolia. Yet the spatial unit observed by a satellite, the area actually grazed by a mobile herd, the administrative unit used in official statistics, and the household unit used in socioeconomic surveys are rarely [...]
Vulnerability to flood-sensitive environmentally persistent zoonoses: a scoping review
Published: 2026-09-29
Subjects: Public Health
Background Environmentally persistent zoonoses (EPZs), such as leptospirosis and melioidosis, are caused by pathogens that can survive outside of a host for over 48 hours. Their transmission is sensitive to climate hazards such as flooding, which can disperse pathogens and increase opportunities for spillover. Risk of exposure to EPZs during flooding is influenced by the vulnerability of exposed [...]
Seasonal water-source transitions across livelihood systems in Somalia: Spatial heterogeneity and household correlates
Published: 2026-09-29
Subjects: Geography
Water access in dryland settings is commonly represented by a single primary drinking-water source, although households may reorganize their water supply as rainfall, source availability, mobility, and market access change between seasons. This study examines rainy-to-dry water-source transitions across livelihood systems in Somalia using the nationally representative 2022 Somalia Integrated [...]
Fit for purpose evapotranspiration measurements: A multi-site comparison of lower-cost approaches across croplands and shrublands
Published: 2026-09-29
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Evapotranspiration (ET) links the water and energy cycles, yet research-grade eddy covariance (EC) systems may not be the best option to deploy operationally for water management. Emerging lower-cost ET approaches may expand fit-for-purpose observations, but their reliability across contrasting ecosystems, climates, and instrumentation configurations remains uncertain. Here, we evaluate [...]
Fractures and Floods: Small-scale spatial and temporal processes driving change in a relic ice-shelf basal channel
Published: 2026-09-29
Subjects: Glaciology
Basal channels, which form beneath ice shelves due to localized warm or fast-moving water, may weaken ice shelves by localizing deformation that promotes crevasse formation. Here, we test this hypothesis and investigate the role of fracturing and melt generation in the evolution of an ice shelf basal channel. We use ground-based ice-penetrating radar imaging of change over 3 years for the [...]
Forecasting the moisture content of live forest fuels with a transformer machine learning model and Sentinel-2 satellite data
Published: 2026-09-29
Subjects: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Environmental Monitoring, Forest Biology, Forest Sciences, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Other Plant Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Hydrology, Planetary Sciences, Plant Sciences, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) provides an indicator of vegetation flammability, the potential for canopy dieback from drought, and habitat quality for arboreal fauna. Recent advances in artificial intelligence have increased the potential in meteorological forecasts for Earth surface forecasting. Combining weather forecasts with remotely sensed LFMC offers a promising avenue for short and [...]