Preprints
There are 7221 Preprints listed.
First Observational Evidence That Biological Giant CCN Control Urban Rainfall Character: A Natural Experiment from Islamabad's Paper Mulberry Removal
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology
Modeling studies predict that biological aerosol, specifically pollen acting as giant cloud condensation nuclei (GCCN), can modify precipitation character by initiating collision-coalescence and warm rain in shallow cloud (Steiner et al., 2015; Wozniak et al., 2018; Paukert et al., 2025). No observational study has tested this prediction. We exploit a natural experiment, the removal of ~29,000 [...]
Dendritically-Drained Peat Plateaus: A Distinctive Thaw-Sensitive Organic-Rich Permafrost Landsystem in Northwestern Canada
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Peatlands in northwestern Canada comprise one of the most thaw-sensitive and carbon-rich permafrost landscapes of North America, and undergo rapid thaw due to surface disturbance and climate change. Dendritically-drained peat plateaus (DPPs) are a distinctive permafrost landform assemblage characterized by branching networks of channelized fens and bogs dissecting raised peat plateaus with [...]
Deep learning identification of SST teleconnections driving early-winter North Atlantic climate
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seasonal predictability over the North Atlantic-European (NAE) sector is strongly modulated by the background climate state, particularly in early winter. In this season, different ENSO teleconnections have been reported before and after the 1990s. However, these studies rely on linear analysis, and the reasons for this lack of stationarity and its implications for seasonal forecasting have not [...]
Global forest typology at 10-meter resolution for forest and land-use monitoring
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Forest Management, Forest Sciences, Life Sciences, Other Forestry and Forest Sciences, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
Distinguishing forest types---primary, naturally regenerating, planted, and plantation forests---from agricultural tree crops and other land uses is essential for carbon accounting, biodiversity assessment, conservation planning, and supply-chain regulation. However, no existing global dataset resolves this typology at high spatial resolution. We present the Forest Typology (ForTy) v1 dataset, a [...]
Persistent Future North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Risk in Two Contrasting CMIP6 Scenarios
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We analyze North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity using the Columbia HAZard (CHAZ) model to downscale 12 models from CMIP6 under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios --- those with the least and greatest anthropogenic forcing respectively. TC frequency increases along the Southeastern U.S. and declines along the Gulf under both SSPs. Greater TC frequency is not projected in the [...]
Operationalising EMS-98 Damage Classification: A UAV-to-GIS Pipeline for Macroseismic Survey Support
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Databases and Information Systems, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Nature and Society Relations, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science
Post-earthquake macroseismic surveying often relies on ground-based visual inspections that are slow, costly, and difficult to scale in the immediate aftermath of a seismic event. Deep-learning damage detectors have advanced substantially in recent years, yet their outputs are rarely translated into operational deployment tools that yield a georeferenced dataframe of buildings aligned with the [...]
Optimal Modeling and County-Level Applications for the Spatial Prediction of Soil Organic Matter: A Case Study of Thirteen Counties in the Yellow River Basin
Published: 2026-05-21
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering
Soil organic matter (SOM) is a key indicator for assessing soil health and the carbon sequestration potential, and its precise spatial prediction is vital for ensuring sustainable agricultural development. Machine learning has emerged as a core tool in digital soil mapping. However, in complex landscapes such as the Yellow River Basin, the selection of models and the translation of their [...]
A 10,000-Year Global Stochastic Tropical Cyclone Catalog with Wind-Dependent Track Transitions (WHITS)
Published: 2026-05-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Risk Analysis
Reliable assessment of tropical cyclone (TC) risk is limited by the brevity and spatial sparsity of the historical record, particularly for the rare, high-intensity landfalls that dominate insured loss. We present WHITS (Wind-focused Hurricane Interactive Track Simulator), a non-parametric semi-Markov track generator that extends the HITS framework of Nakamura et al. (2015) in three ways: [...]
Local refinement of a national-scale groundwater model
Published: 2026-05-21
Subjects: Planetary Hydrology, Water Resource Management
This method article presents a local refinement framework for a national-scale, machine learning-based groundwater model that predicts typical summer and winter water table depth at 10 × 10 m resolution at national scale of Denmark. While the existing baseline model provides high-resolution national coverage and is suitable for screening purposes, its accuracy remains insufficient for local [...]
Role of Fault Geometry in Generating Backward-migrating P-wave Radiation During the 2025 Mw 7.7 Myanmar Earthquake
Published: 2026-05-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology
The Mw 7.7 Myanmar earthquake of 28 March 2025 ruptured the Sagaing Fault system over ~450 km and exhibited complex rupture behavior, including intermittent supershear propagation and backward-migrating high-frequency (HF) P-wave radiation. We image the rupture evolution using multi-frequency teleseismic P-wave back-projection (BP) (0.05–0.5, 0.1–1.0, and 0.3–2.0 Hz) and compare the results with [...]
Climate Change Perceptions and Policy Priorities in Pakistan: A Community Survey Analysis and Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Perspective
Published: 2026-05-20
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Climate change constitutes a compound existential risk for Pakistan — a nation responsible for less than one percent of global greenhouse-gas emissions yet consistently ranked among the ten most climate-vulnerable states on earth (Germanwatch, 2021). Escalating heatwaves, intensifying monsoon floods, accelerating glacial retreat, chronic smog, and advancing desertification are not future [...]
Simulation-Based Sensitivity Analysis of Check-Dam Height Effects on Downstream Debris-Flow Depth for Structural Countermeasure Scenarios
Published: 2026-05-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering, Other Engineering, Risk Analysis
Check dams can influence debris-flow propagation, but their effects may depend on location, height, and local topographic conditions. This study evaluates the sensitivity of downstream debris-flow depth to check-dam height scenarios using numerical simulations of a mountainous catchment in Atami, Japan. Six hypothetical check-dam locations were placed along the torrent, and 4,877 valid cases were [...]
Snow water equivalent estimates from airborne radar in the St. Elias Mountains
Published: 2026-05-20
Subjects: Glaciology
Quantifying the input mass from snow accumulation on rapidly changing glaciers is critical to establishing baseline states and predicting responses to climate change. Some of the largest glaciers in the world are located in the St. Elias Mountains in Southeast Alaska and Southwest Yukon; however, the input mass to these glaciers is poorly constrained. Here we used airborne radar sounding combined [...]
Stratigraphy as a low-pass filter: selective preservation of spatial variability on a Holocene carbonate platform
Published: 2026-05-20
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Walther’s law, a fundamental principle in geoscience, predicts that laterally adjacent depositional environments become preserved as a vertical succession of layers (facies). As an expression of uniformitarianism, this law underpins interpretations of Earth’s history, yet it has not been quantitatively tested. We test this law and examine its limitations by quantifying multidecadal changes in [...]
Legacy brewery phosphorus as a management constraint in the Mashapaug Watershed: unresolved reservoirs and pathways in an urban pond cascade
Published: 2026-05-20
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Spectacle and Mashapaug Ponds have been listed as impaired waters in Rhode Island since 2002, with 20 public-health advisories issued since 2011. Phosphorus is treated as the primary limiting nutrient for harmful algal blooms in the watershed, and Spectacle Pond is the largest direct phosphorus source to Mashapaug Pond and the lower pond cascade. In February 2026, the Rhode Island Department of [...]