Preprints
There are 6224 Preprints listed.
Constraining On- and Off-Fault Nonlinear Dynamic Rupture Parameters via Hierarchical Bayesian Inversion for the 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest Earthquake
Published: 2025-09-20
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
We present the first multilevel Bayesian inversion to quantify uncertainties and correlations among on- and off-fault dynamic rupture parameters for the 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake. The inversion is constrained by multidisciplinary surface deformation data, including fault-parallel offsets from satellite imagery, high-rate GNSS time series, and static GNSS displacements, and is enabled by [...]
Understanding and addressing temperature impacts on mortality
Published: 2025-09-20
Subjects: Climate, Natural Resource Economics
A large literature documents how ambient temperature affects human mortality. Using decades of detailed data from 30 countries, we revisit and synthesize key findings from this literature. We confirm that ambient temperature is among the largest external threats to human health, and is responsible for a remarkable 5-12% of total deaths across countries in our sample, or hundreds of thousands of [...]
Beyond the mangroves: a global synthesis of tidal forested wetland types, drivers and future information needs
Published: 2025-09-20
Subjects: Biodiversity, Forest Management, Forest Sciences, Other Forestry and Forest Sciences, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
There is increasing awareness of the global diversity of tidal forested wetlands (TFWs) and their significance in the provision of ecosystem services. These ecosystems, including mangrove forests, tidal freshwater forested wetlands, supratidal forests and transitional forests together span tropical to temperate climatic zones and occur across diverse geomorphic, inundation and salinity regimes. [...]
Unreliable Results of a Commercial Real-Time Water Quality Sensor in Identifying Fecal Contamination of Drinking Water
Published: 2025-09-20
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering
Low-cost technologies are increasingly being explored and marketed as capable of filling gaps in global water quality monitoring (WQM), especially in resource-limited settings. This study evaluates a commercially available, low-cost triboelectric-based sensor that is marketed for real-time detection of E. coli in drinking and environmental waters. A result of 0 indicates contaminated water, [...]
Machine Learning Generated Streamflow Drought Forecasts for the Conterminous United States (CONUS): Developing and Evaluating an Operational Tool to Enhance Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Streamflow Drought Early Warning for Gaged Locations
Published: 2025-09-19
Subjects: Hydrology, Water Resource Management
Forecasts of streamflow drought, when streamflow declines below typical levels, are notably less available than for floods or meteorological drought, despite widespread impacts. To address this gap, we apply machine learning (ML) models to forecast streamflow drought 1-13 weeks into the future at > 3,000 streamgage locations across the conterminous United States (CONUS). We applied two ML [...]
Minkowski Functionals as Analytical Predictors of Permeability in Porous Microstructures
Published: 2025-09-19
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Materials Science and Engineering, Mechanical Engineering
Understanding the relationship between microstructure and macroscopic properties in porous media remains crucial for numerous applications in geoscience and engineering. For example, accurate predictability of permeability is essential for optimizing fluid flow processes in applications such as hydrocarbon recovery, groundwater management, and carbon or energy storage. The Kozeny-Carman equation [...]
Detection of coastal flooding with TinyCamML: a low-cost, privacy-preserving cellular-connected camera with onboard ML
Published: 2025-09-19
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Other Civil and Environmental Engineering, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Systems and Communications
Chronic flooding is an issue for low-lying coastal communities globally, and it is expected to worsen with rising sea levels. In contrast to floods driven by extreme storms, predicting when and where these floods occur can be difficult as they can be hyper-local and short-lived, depending on the flood drivers (e.g., tides, rain). These factors make it difficult to measure the full spatial and [...]
Spatiotemporal Urban Flood Expansion and Propagation by Percentage of Node in Flood Assessment (PNFA)
Published: 2025-09-18
Subjects: Environmental Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering, Other Civil and Environmental Engineering
Urban pluvial flooding is a complex process shaped by rainfall intensity, drainage system capacity, and urban infrastructure. While previous studies have mapped flood extents, the spatiotemporal evolution of drainage saturation and overflow propagation remain insufficiently explored. This study introduces the Percentage of Node in Flood Assessment (PNFA), integrating the Flood Expansion Rate [...]
Global hyper-resolution groundwater dataset for assessing historical and future groundwater dynamics
Published: 2025-09-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Planetary Hydrology, Planetary Sciences
Sustainable management of global groundwater is a key societal challenge and central to Sustainable Development Goals. To address limited observations and coarse global models, we present a global hyper-resolution dataset of monthly groundwater heads and water table depth at 30 arc-seconds (~1 km), simulated by GLOBGM, a global groundwater flow model. The data set follows ISIMIP protocols and [...]
Support for Forest Conservation Imperatives: A Robust Approach for Multi-dimensional, Spatially Explicit Resilience Assessment
Published: 2025-09-18
Subjects: Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Forest Management, Natural Resources and Conservation, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
Forest ecosystems are ecologically, socially, and culturally valuable, and are arguably considered essential to global sustainability. Climate change and altered disturbance regimes are threatening the future of forests around the globe. Many countries are coming together to support and implement conservation and monitoring initiatives to improve future prospects for the restoration and [...]
Nonlinear longitudinal stress coupling in glacier and ice sheet flow
Published: 2025-09-18
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Fluid Dynamics, Glaciology, Non-linear Dynamics
The Greenland and Antarctic Ice sheets exhibit high variability in flow speed, over multiple orders of magnitude. Faster flow in ice streams, marine terminating glaciers, and ice shelves is described by the Shallow Shelf/Shelfy-Stream Approximation (SSA), which requires a nonlocal balance between driving stress, friction at the ice-bed interface, and longitudinal/membrane stresses. Nonlocal [...]
Breaking the Cycle: Short Recurrence and Overshoot of an M9-class Kamchatka Earthquake
Published: 2025-09-18
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
M9-class megathrust earthquakes in subduction zones are generally thought to release slip deficits on the plate interface accumulated over centuries. However, the 2025 Kamchatka earthquake (Mw 8.8--8.9) ruptured nearly the same area as the 1952 Mw 9.0 event, as shown by the aftershock distribution. This unusually short recurrence interval challenges conventional seismic-cycle models used for [...]
Efficient Self-Attention Based Joint Optimization for Lithology and Petrophysical Parameter Estimation in the Athabasca Oil Sands
Published: 2025-09-18
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Earth Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology
Accurately identifying lithology and petrophysical parameters, such as porosity and water saturation, are essential in reservoir characterization. Manual interpretation of well-log data, the conventional approach, is not only labor-intensive but also susceptible to human errors. To address these challenges of lithology identification and petrophysical parameter estimation in the Athabasca Oil [...]
FLOCCULATION, GRAVITY FLOWS, AND TOTAL ORGANIC CARBON HOTSPOTS IN LAKE: INSIGHTS FROM FLUME EXPERIMENTS
Published: 2025-09-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Lakes serve as one of the significant sinks for organic carbon. For lake deposits, it is generally accepted that water depth is a primary control on the spatial distribution of total organic carbon (TOC) accumulation because the deeper part of a lake potentially has a higher organic population to be settled. However, lake TOC distribution is often spatially variable regardless of water depth, and [...]
DOZER: a toy model of coastal hazard mitigation during a storm
Published: 2025-09-18
Subjects: Dynamical Systems, Geomorphology, Nature and Society Relations, Other Civil and Environmental Engineering, Other Environmental Sciences, Physical and Environmental Geography, Science and Mathematics Education, Sustainability
Motivated by observations of emergency road-maintenance crews in coastal settings, DOZER is a video game in which the player uses a bulldozer to clear sand from a beachfront road during a storm. DOZER is also a toy model in a formal sense: a heuristic tool for insight into the dynamics of real-time intervention in the physical processes of a natural hazard. Here, I introduce DOZER as both a game [...]