Preprints
There are 7084 Preprints listed.
Overshoot pathways of 1.5°C: reversible biophysical change, irreversible socioeconomic impacts
Published: 2026-04-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Exceedance of 1.5°C in the near term is now unavoidable. Among pathways consistent with the remaining carbon budget, an overshoot pathway, in which exceedance is followed by decline to or below 1.5°C through net-negative emissions, is the best case of what remains achievable. Permanent exceedance produces strictly worse outcomes, yet even an overshoot pathway leaves lasting legacies. We propose a [...]
Species specific mangrove habitat suitability and scenario dependent blue carbon modeling under uncertainty in Soc Trang Province, Vietnam
Published: 2026-04-26
Subjects: Engineering, Life Sciences
This study develops an integrated framework for species specific mangrove habitat suitability and scenario dependent blue carbon planning in Soc Trang Province, Vietnam. The spatial model translates ecological zonation evidence for 11 mangrove taxa into local rules based on coastal distance and elevation, then tests those rules across 19 spatial scenarios. The carbon model carries the resulting [...]
Evidence of non-additional pig manure offset projects
Published: 2026-04-26
Subjects: Geography
Each carbon offset represents the claim that one ton of CO₂ emissions has been avoided or removed from the atmosphere. For offsets to deliver real climate benefits, the emission reductions they represent must be “additional,” meaning they would not have occurred without financial support from the carbon market. Despite its importance, additionality has proven difficult to achieve in practice. [...]
Agricultural Fallowing Drives Extreme Anthropogenic Dust and Visibility Degradation During the October 2021 Dust Event in California’s Central Valley
Published: 2026-04-26
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences
Anthropogenic dust aerosols from agricultural land affect regional air quality, visibility, and radiation, yet they are often ignored in atmospheric models. Here, we investigate the role of fallow croplands in driving anthropogenic dust emissions during the October 11, 2021, wind-driven dust event over California’s Central Valley (CV). The simulation without fallow croplands fails to reproduce [...]
Spatial Assessment of Soil Erosion Risk Using RUSLE and GIS in Upland Agricultural Barangays of Candelaria, Quezon, Philippines
Published: 2026-04-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study integrated Geographic Information System (GIS) and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model, A= R • K • LS • C • P, to assess soil loss and propose soil conservation strategies in Candelaria, Quezon, Philippines, addressing increasing erosion evidenced by collapsing hillsides, sedimentation, and soil displacement from construction. The RUSLE model, with adjustments in the [...]
Evaluation of H2O-CO2 solubility models in silicate melts: Precision and accuracy of vapor saturation pressure and composition
Published: 2026-04-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Solubility models for H2O and CO2 in silicate melt are crucial in igneous petrology and volcanology, in particular for calculating the pressure of vapor saturation of melts from their dissolved volatile content as a barometer, as well as melt and vapor compositions and proportions during degassing. We assessed the accuracy and precision of the calculated pressure of vapor saturation and [...]
Microphysical Evolution of Precipitation During Convective Storm Life-Cycles and Implications for Radar QPE: Combined Radar–Disdrometer Observations from Kolkata, Eastern India
Published: 2026-04-25
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Through dedicated observations with a Joss–Waldvogel disdrometer at Dumdum (22.65°N, 88.43°E) and the S-band Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) (22.57°N, 88.35°E) over Kolkata, this study provides in-depth analysis of drop size distribution (DSD) evolution over each stage from initiation to decay of contrasting convective storms over Kolkata, eastern India due to its complicated terrain in monsoon [...]
Exploratory MPAS Sensitivity Experiments on Rainforest Biogenic Salt Aerosols, Tropical Rainfall, and Poleward Moisture Transport
Published: 2026-04-25
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Planetary Hydrology
Rainforest ecosystems emit biologically influenced aerosol particles, including potassium-rich and other hygroscopic components that may affect warm-rain microphysics. While tropical biogenic aerosols have been studied extensively, their sensitivity within coarse-resolution global models remains incompletely characterized, particularly under differing background aerosol states. Here we present [...]
Melt-dominated mid-crust in the 575–500 Ma Damara Orogen: Field constraints on an interconnected migmatite–granite system
Published: 2026-04-25
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Stratigraphy, Tectonics and Structure
Modern thermomechanical models emphasise the role of partial melting and granite magmatism on the structural and tectonic evolution of orogenic belts. Partially molten mid-crust can trigger a change from localised deformation to distributed ductile flow, while also accommodating chemical differentiation of the crust. In the southern Central Zone of Namibia’s Damara Orogen, it is unclear whether [...]
Statistics of curvature in the submesoscale surface ocean
Published: 2026-04-25
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Ocean submesoscale (1--10\,km) variability is hypothesised to contribute substantially to upper-ocean vertical exchange and heat fluxes, but the three-dimensional turbulent nature of the variability makes it difficult to interpret submesoscale variability dynamically. Statistics of velocity gradients are often analyzed to characterize the nature of submesoscale dynamics. Previous analyses show [...]
Continuous Water Surface Elevation Estimates Using Deep Learning with Legacy Altimetry and Surface Water and Ocean Topography Data
Published: 2026-04-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
We present the development of a high-temporal-resolution global dataset of daily river water surface elevation (WSE), spanning January 2008 through May 2025. By utilizing a deep learning framework to integrate legacy satellite altimetry and the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission data, we produced a continuous record covering 9,184 river reaches, 5,926 rivers, and 1,342 basins. The [...]
Airborne imaging spectrometer measurements of methane releases under turbulent conditions
Published: 2026-04-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Other Earth Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics
Methane plume detection and quantification from airborne and spaceborne platforms offers a promising approach for monitoring localized greenhouse gas emissions. Its performance must be demonstrated under realistic but controlled conditions. An airborne demonstrator of a compact shortwave infrared imaging spectrometer developed for the AIRMO Earth observation mission was therefore evaluated during [...]
The biodiversity paradox: declining conservation discourse amid ecological crisis in global urban policies
Published: 2026-04-24
Subjects: Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Despite escalating biodiversity crises, conservation discourse in urban environmental policies has declined, revealing a governance paradox in which ecological urgency is inversely correlated with policy representation. We analyzed 202 urban environmental policies from 85 countries spanning 1984-2025 using computational text analysis (LDA, NMF, hierarchical clustering). The results reveal an [...]
Upper Crustal Control on Nearshore Subduction Mechanics in Cascadia
Published: 2026-04-24
Subjects: Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Tectonics and Structure
Along-strike upper plate heterogeneity is widely observed at subduction margins, but its direct influence on slab geometry and interseismic deformation remains debated. Here, we investigate the effect of upper-crustal geological segmentation on nearshore subduction mechanics at the Cascadia margin. Using a high-resolution, shore-crossing 3-D seismic tomography model from central to southern [...]
Between extraction and protection: Public support for natural resource regulation and environmental governance across Africa, a continental analysis with West Africa as a case study
Published: 2026-04-24
Subjects: Environmental Studies
Natural resource extraction is central to development strategies across Africa, yet it generates persistent conflicts over environmental costs, benefit distribution, and governance legitimacy. Public attitudes toward this trade-off have remained largely unmeasured at the continental scale. This paper provides the first cross-national quantitative analysis of citizen preferences for environmental [...]