Preprints
There are 7615 Preprints listed.
Statistical projections of the mean changes in intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over Zambia from the reference period 1971-2000 to the future 2021-2050.
Published: 2026-07-29
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
As the Earth continues to warm, extreme seasonal precipitation events such as dry spells, floods, and droughts are expected to become more frequent and severe worldwide, including in Zambia. Zambia's agricultural sector, heavily dependent on seasonal rainfall, is highly sensitive to such fluctuations, with longer dry spells and floods threatening farmer livelihoods and national food security. [...]
A community data commons for equitable Earth Science
Published: 2026-07-29
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences
Earth observation has entered an era of extraordinary data abundance, yet the analysis-ready, well-documented, reproducible datasets that climate, water, agriculture, and disaster research actually require remain scarce. Every research group that repeats the same preprocessing pays a last-mile cost that falls hardest on the institutions and communities least able to afford it. Here we describe [...]
Thermal Resilience During Prolonged Cooling Outages: A Multi-Zone Field Study of Disruption and Recovery in Arizona Apartments
Published: 2026-07-29
Subjects: Engineering, Other Engineering
Increasing frequency and severity of extreme heat events, and growing dependence on air-conditioning systems emphasize the need to evaluate thermal resiliency of buildings during cooling outages. Existing assessments often emphasize isolated metrics or steady state conditions and may not adequately characterize cumulative thermal exposure, thermal buffering, and post outage recovery. This study [...]
Manganese Oxidation States Reveal a Continental-Scale Climate-Driven Redox Gradient in Upland Soils
Published: 2026-07-29
Subjects: Biochemistry, Geochemistry, Soil Science
Soil redox conditions regulate soil organic carbon (SOC) persistence and nutrient availability, yet macroclimatic controls in uplands remain unclear because O2 depletion reflects the interactions of moisture, labile carbon, soil texture, and microbial demand. Here we pair manganese (Mn) oxidation state, an integrative redox proxy, with effective water balance (mean annual precipitation minus [...]
Revisiting Snoke’s (1987) Spectral Expressions: Coefficient Correction and Its Implications for Dynamic Insights
Published: 2026-07-29
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Source parameters such as seismic moment, corner frequency, stress drop, radiated energy, and apparent stress are often derived from the Brune (1970) source spectrum. Building on this, Andrews (1986) formulated analytical relations that link those parameters to spectral integrals of squared velocity and displacement, and Snoke (1987) introduced an approximation that enables their practical [...]
MUONITH v1.0 — A Fast Simulation Tool for Multi-directional Muography Observation Design
Published: 2026-07-29
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Multi-directional muography is a non-destructive technique for imaging the three-dimensional density structure of large objects such as volcanoes. Recent developments in detector technology—miniaturization, low-power operation, and weight reduction—are rapidly expanding the range of feasible observation sites, and detector deployment by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is also being studied; in [...]
Sub-pixel Canopy Phenology reveals divergent Spring transition sequences in Tropical Mixed Deciduous Forest
Published: 2026-07-29
Subjects: Biodiversity, Biology, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Forest Sciences
Vegetation phenology regulates terrestrial carbon uptake and land–atmosphere interactions, and is commonly inferred from satellite-derived vegetation indices such as the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). However, these observations represent spatially aggregated signals that mask phenological variability among individual tree canopies in [...]
Distributed Acoustic Sensing Recordings of Cryoseismicity Enable Seismic Imaging of Permafrost in Remote Arctic Regions
Published: 2026-07-29
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Geotechnical Engineering, Glaciology
Permafrost can be highly heterogeneous, and variability in its subsurface structure under climate warming remains poorly understood despite the critical role of permafrost in Arctic hydrology, ecosystems, and infrastructure stability. Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) provides a long-term method for dense seismic array monitoring in remote regions with passively recorded seismic activities. We [...]
Thin Ice DEM Model Based on Smoothed Elements: A 2.5-Dimensional DEM Approach for Ice–Structure Interaction Simulation
Published: 2026-07-29
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The user wants just the updated abstract in plain text format, with α removed.` We present a novel 2.5-dimensional Discrete Element Method (DEM) model, termed the Thin Ice Model (TIM), for efficient simulation of ice-structure interactions in broken and unbroken sea ice fields. The model is based on Voronoi tessellation of a single-layer ice sheet, where the ratio of element area to thickness [...]
SCI-VIS: Lightweight Visibility Tagging for Coastal Camera Monitoring
Published: 2026-07-29
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Oceanography, Remote Sensing
Observations and measurements made from coastal cameras are conditional on the frame being interpretable. Sea fog, glare, rain and condensation on the housing, haze and low light each degrade the imagery, and the shoreline positions, wave measurements and counts derived from a degraded frame are corrupted or spurious. This paper evaluates a per-frame visibility classifier, based on a compact [...]
Assessing the protective role of active agriculture in wildfire exposure in a Mediterranean region
Published: 2026-07-29
Subjects: Geography
Global change and rural abandonment are restructuring Mediterranean fire regimes, as landscapes once characterized by heterogeneous agricultural mosaics are progressively replaced by homogenized, drought-limited fuel complexes. This transformation increases the likelihood of high-intensity wildfire events and their associated impacts. This study applied a stochastic fire-spread modeling framework [...]
A Blueprint for Modern Floodplain Management: System Requirements and Architecture for AI-Ready Platforms
Published: 2026-07-29
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Computer Sciences, Engineering, Hydraulic Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
Floodplain managers play a critical role in mitigating flood risks and ensuring compliance with federal, state, and local regulations. Their daily work often depends on a patchwork of standalone tools, manual processes, and legacy systems that have evolved over time to meet regulatory and community needs. To establish a foundation for next-generation technological solutions, we synthesized [...]
Stress-Conditioned Lightweight Flash-Drought Detection in the US Corn Belt Using MODIS NDVI and ERA5-Land
Published: 2026-07-29
Subjects: Hydrology, Meteorology
Flash-drought monitoring by classical indices averages predictive signal across calm and stressed years, blunting the signal exactly where it matters. We show empirically that the coupling between precipitation, soil moisture, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and NDVI is stress-conditional: the hydrological pathway is visible when vegetation is already under stress (Spearman rho of about 0.18 for [...]
Northward Dust-Induced Shift of Tropical Atlantic Precipitation in CMIP6 Models
Published: 2026-07-29
Subjects: Life Sciences
Mineral dust has substantially increased since the pre-industrial period, particularly over North Africa and the Atlantic Ocean. However, the impacts of increased dust burden over the tropical Atlantic Ocean on the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and regional precipitation remain poorly resolved. Here, we analyze seven CMIP6 models participating in the Aerosol Chemistry [...]
Intermediate-Evidence Substitution: A Benchmark Design Methodology for Isolating Numerical Derivation from Protocol Execution in Deterministic Climate Verification
Published: 2026-07-29
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We introduce \textbf{Intermediate-Evidence Substitution (IES)}, a benchmark design methodology that changes evidence granularity while preserving task semantics: decisive aggregate statistics in benchmark evidence are replaced with the raw intermediate values from which they are derived, while task labels, decision protocols, thresholds, and evaluation criteria remain unchanged. IES functions as [...]