Preprints
There are 6136 Preprints listed.
Virunga Volcanoes Supersite Biennial Report: 2017- 2019
Published: 2025-08-09
Subjects: Education, Engineering, Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Virunga Volcanoes is the first Supersite established on the African continent in a highly populated Multi-hazards region. This permanent Supersite was established in a critical context as little was known about the Virunga hazards sources and their dynamics, and little done as measures to evaluate, mitigate and reduce their impacts. Similarly, the active volcanoes are poorly studied and [...]
Analysis of geomagnetic secular variation for the last 1.5 Ma recorded by volcanic rocks of the Trans Mexican Volcanic Belt: new data from Sierra de Chichinautzin, Mexico
Published: 2025-08-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology
The great wealth of volcanism along the Trans Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) and the need to improve the secular variation curve of the Earth magnetic field of the region is the aim of this research. 300 oriented cores from 33 sites and 21 individual cooling units were acquired from Sierra de Chichinautzin volcanic field (ChVF) and Sierra de Santa Catarina (SSC). Directional analysis and rock [...]
Technological Adaptation Outpaces Climate Impacts on Aviation: Evidence from Three Decades of Warming
Published: 2025-08-08
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Environmental Studies, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Climate impact assessments frequently prioritize projections over empirical validation of operational outcomes. We introduce and apply a generalizable empirical validation framework that (i) separates operational encounters from safety outcomes and (ii) tests climate → operations linkages via physical mechanism validation with explicit detectability bounds. Using 33 years (1991–2023) of U.S. [...]
22 Years Later: Evaluating Glover & Smith’s 2003 Predictions of the 2025 Deep-Sea Ecosystem
Published: 2025-08-07
Subjects: Life Sciences, Marine Biology
Earth’s deep-sea ecosystem remains one of the least explored and understood ecosystems on the planet. Human interest in the resources available in the deep-sea must be balanced with potential harm to the deep-sea ecosystem. Accurately predicting the effect on human impact on the deep-sea floor can help guide policies and actions today. This research evaluates prior predictions of human impact on [...]
Prioritizing wildfire fuel management in California
Published: 2025-08-07
Subjects: Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Sciences, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The resources available for managing wildfire risk are insufficient and ultimately finite, while the risk of catastrophic fires is enormous and growing. Prioritization of responses is thus critical, but the basis for comparing the costs and societal benefits of alternative investments in wildfire mitigation is inadequate. Here, we assess and compare the costs of landscape-scale fuel treatment in [...]
The Global Woody Surface: A Planetary Interface for Biodiversity, Ecosystem Function, and Climate
Published: 2025-08-07
Subjects: Biogeochemistry, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Forest Sciences, Natural Resources and Conservation
Global woody surfaces span an area nearly equivalent to Earth’s terrestrial land surface and mediate CO2 fluxes three times larger than global fossil fuel emissions and methane uptake comparable to the global soil sink, yet remain absent from ecological research and Earth system models despite their critical roles in biodiversity and ecosystem services.
Controls on Mg isotopic fractionation between deep mantle phases and relict signatures of a terrestrial magma ocean
Published: 2025-08-07
Subjects: Geochemistry, Mineral Physics
We use density functional theory to investigate the fractionation of Mg isotopes between phases in the lower mantle. Our results support previous work and show that coordination number plays an important role in controlling isotopic fractionation, with bridgmanite (perovskite-structured MgSiO3) preferentially incorporating lighter Mg isotopes into its highly coordinated site compared to periclase [...]
Climate driven hydrologic nonstationarity patterns across the Contiguous United States
Published: 2025-08-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We calculated metrics of climate change, land use-land cover change, and hydrologic nonstationarity in 671 catchments across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) that are known not to have relatively little urbanization and anthropogenic land cover. Climate change is correlated with hydrologic nonstationarity in these basins. Land use-land cover change has no correlation with hydrologic [...]
Comment on "Mineral-water reactions in Earth's mantle: Predictions from Born theory and ab initio molecular dynamics" by Fowler et al. 2024 (Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 372, 111-123)
Published: 2025-08-07
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics
This comment addresses discrepancies in dielectric constant calculations of water under extreme conditions ( ~10 GPa and 1000 K) between Fowler et al.'s recent study [Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 372, 111-123 (2024)] and the earlier work by Pan et al. [Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 110, 6646–6650 (2013)]. Through reproduced ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations using the CP2K code with extended [...]
wave-attenuation-1d: An idealized one-dimensional framework for wave attenuation through coastal vegetation using Numba-accelerated shallow water equations
Published: 2025-08-07
Subjects: Applied Mechanics, Environmental Engineering, Fluid Dynamics, Numerical Analysis and Computation, Oceanography
Coastal vegetation provides crucial wave attenuation for shoreline protection, yet existing models are either computationally prohibitive or lack transparency for educational purposes. This study presents wave-attenuation-1d, an open-source Python package implementing linearized shallow water equations with vegetation-induced drag to simulate wave propagation through coastal vegetation. The [...]
Subsurface Lithologic Controls on Off-Fault Deformation and Multi-Fault Slip During the 2016 Mw 6.5 Norcia Earthquake Revealed by Satellite Geodesy
Published: 2025-08-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Understanding the mechanisms controlling deformation localization is crucial for our understanding of fault mechanics and improving seismic hazard assessment, but has not been extensively studied for normal-faulting earthquakes. Here, we present a thorough analysis of the 2016 Mw 6.5 Norcia, Italy, earthquake using high-resolution satellite geodesy. We investigate the degree of deformation [...]
The influence of historical sea-surface temperature patterns on regional precipitation trends
Published: 2025-08-06
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
State-of-the-art coupled global climate models (GCMs) fail to simulate key features of observed seasonal precipitation trends since 1980, including drying of the southwestern US, the southeastern US, East Africa, and subtropical South America, as well as wetting of the Maritime Continent and the Amazon. They also fail to simulate the sea-level pressure (SLP) trends since 1980 associated with a [...]
On the Origin of Slow and Large Earthquakes in South-Central Mexico
Published: 2025-08-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Slow slip events (SSEs) in Guerrero and Oaxaca, Mexico, have likely triggered five of the last six M7+ earthquakes in the region since 2012. This interaction, however, is non-systematic, as evidenced by the preceding 17 years of large earthquake quiescence, when multiple SSEs occurred without consequence. The Mexican catalog since 1800 reveals that large earthquakes cluster in time every ~15 [...]
DASNordicSLR - Sea Level Projections for Northern Europe
Published: 2025-08-05
Subjects: Oceanography
Sea level rise is an inevitable consequence and one of the most significant threats posed by climate change, increasing the risk of flooding in low-lying areas along the German coast. Based on the IPCC 6th Assessment Report (AR6) projections we aim to deliver improved projections of relative sea level change for Northern Europe’s coastal regions. These projections are available as spatial data up [...]
Geomodelling of multi-scenario non-stationary reservoirs with enhanced GANSim
Published: 2025-08-05
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Hydrology, Mining Engineering, Natural Resources and Conservation, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy
Reservoir geomodelling is critical for groundwater management, CO₂ storage, geothermal exploitation, and hydrocarbon exploration, yet traditional geostatistical methods like multiple-point statistics (MPS) struggle with simulating complex geological patterns. GANSim, a Generative Adversarial Networks-based geomodelling method, has proven effective for single-scenario stationary reservoirs, but [...]