Preprints
There are 6168 Preprints listed.
An Analytical Model for CO2 Surface Forcing, with Application to the Direct Precipitation Response
Published: 2024-12-15
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
If temperature is held constant, increasing atmospheric CO2 reduces atmospheric radiative cooling and suppresses precipitation. Global Climate Models suggest this “direct” precipitation response ranges from -2% to -3% per CO2 doubling and hence contributes significantly to the net precipitation response of +3% to +9% per CO2 doubling. Our study aims to explain the magnitude and state-dependence [...]
Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C
Published: 2024-12-15
Subjects: Climate, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Glaciers adapt slowly to changing climatic conditions, resulting in long-term changes in their mass with implications for sea level rise and water supply, even if the climate were to stabilize. Using eight glacier evolution models, we simulate global glacier evolution over multi-centennial timescales, allowing glaciers to equilibrate with climate under various constant global temperature [...]
Potential impacts of plant pests and diseases on trees and forests in the UK
Published: 2024-12-13
Subjects: Forest Biology, Forest Management, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
Plant pests and diseases (PPDs) pose a serious threat to trees and forests globally. In the wake of the ash dieback epidemic, the UK Government instigated the UK Plant Health Risk Register (PHRR) to provide semi-quantitative estimates of invasion probability and impact on host plants for PPDs thought to pose a risk to the UK to help prioritize biosecurity activities. The PHRR currently contains [...]
Modest, not extreme, northern high latitude amplification during the Miocene shown by coccolith clumped isotopes
Published: 2024-12-13
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Accurate predictions of the future climate response to CO2 depend on the ability of climate models to simulate past analog warmer climates, like the Miocene. However, one key unresolved issue in paleoclimate modeling is reproducing the pronounced high-latitude warmth and relatively flat latitudinal temperature gradients inferred from proxy records. Here, we use clumped isotope thermometry—a [...]
A critical evaluation of fossil pollen records from the mangrove tree Pelliciera beyond the Neotropics: biogeographical and evolutionary implications
Published: 2024-12-13
Subjects: Paleontology
Pelliciera is a Neotropical mangrove tree restricted to a small region around the Panama Isthmus. In the past, this taxon was distributed across much of the Neotropics, reaching its maximum extent during the Oligo-Miocene. The occurrence of Pelliciera outside the Neotropics had been debated based on a few fossil pollen records from Africa and Europe, though many of these records have been [...]
Gaia, revisited: atmospheric carbon dioxide as a symptom of a vegetation ozone driven climate cycle
Published: 2024-12-13
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
A synoptic analysis of the history of climate science introduces all potential climate drivers. It is demonstrated that the Keeling curve can be seen to reflect yearly ocean CO2 emission minus yearly ocean CO2 uptake. It is also shown that the global carbon equation (GCE), at the foundation of present day climate models is not an equilibrium. This disequilibrium pertains to the neglect of the [...]
Situating place-based, community-engaged watershed research at Xwulqw'selu Sta'lo'
Published: 2024-12-12
Subjects: Environmental Engineering, Environmental Studies
Xwulqw'selu Sta'lo' is a culturally significant and salmon-bearing river facing significant challenges which Cowichan Tribes and the British Columbia Provincial Government are addressing with a first-of-its-kind watershed plan. Our research is deeply situated at Xwulqw'selu Sta'lo' and is grounded in interdisciplinary academic spheres of place-based research, water monitoring and modeling, [...]
Groundwater connected art: practicing arts-based research to enrich how hydrogeology engages people, place and other disciplines
Published: 2024-12-12
Subjects: Environmental Studies, Hydrology, Other Geography
Groundwater depletion, contamination, and governance challenges persist despite decades of groundwater research. Scientific methods are crucial yet seem insufficient to inspire the deep emotional and cultural connections needed for real change – groundwater challenges and opportunities are not reaching enough hearts and minds. This article calls for a bold shift: integrating arts-based research [...]
Doing conferences differently: a decentralised multi-hub approach for ecological and social sustainability
Published: 2024-12-11
Subjects: Environmental Studies
Conferences are invaluable for career progression, offering unique opportunities for networking, collaboration, and learning. However, there are challenges associated with the traditional in-person conference format. For example, there is a significant ecological impact from attendees’ travel behaviour, and there are social inequities in conference attendance, with historically marginalised [...]
Evaluation and prediction of the Effects of Planetary Orbital Variations to Earth’s Temperature Changes
Published: 2024-12-11
Subjects: Education, Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Existing climate studies mainly assessed the effect of greenhouse gases and aerosols, among other forcings on Earth’s temperature. None of them has not evaluated the effect of the planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature. Here, we deconvolved the effects of greenhouse gases and planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature and to forecast the latter at different time scales. Our [...]
Demise of the Barra Honda carbonate shoal (Costa Rica) at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary linked to climate change and forearc tectonics
Published: 2024-12-11
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The latest Cretaceous(?)–Paleocene Barra Honda Formation represents one of the largest carbonate shoals (>900 km2, 350 m thick) of the convergent margin of Costa Rica. Although the mode of formation of the carbonate shoal is well understood, how environmental and tectonic factors interacted to cause its demise near the Paleocene-Eocene boundary remains poorly constrained. Stable isotopic, [...]
Joint effects of submesoscale lateral dispersion and biological reactions on biogeochemical flux
Published: 2024-12-11
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Submesoscale dynamics, operating at spatial scales of O(1−10 km) and temporal scales of O(1 day), are particularly important for marine ecosystems as they occur on similar timescales as phytoplankton growth, enabling biophysical feedbacks. While submesoscale dynamics are known to impact biological fluxes by modifying nutrient upwelling, horizontal transport has traditionally been assumed to only [...]
Climate-Induced Sea-Level Rise Implications on Archaeological Taonga at Te Pokohiwi ō Kupe – The Wairau Bar, Aotearoa New Zealand
Published: 2024-12-11
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
The northwest portion of Te Pokohiwi ō Kupe (the Wairau Bar) in the Marlborough Region is where one of Aotearoa New Zealand’s earliest archaeological heritage sites dating back to the early 1300’s is located. This paper describes a baseline study to map the effects of present-day and future sea-levels on archaeological heritage land at Te Pokohiwi ō Kupe. Results suggest that approximately 20% of [...]
Small pluton construction through sills stacking, amalgamation and differentiation: Insight from the Beauvoir granite (Massif Central, France)
Published: 2024-12-11
Subjects: Earth Sciences
The kinematics, modes of assembly, and the processes governing the evolution of magmas shape plutonic intrusions. Granite bodies have been suggested to emplace incrementally, with successive magmatic batches locally solidified as dikes or sills. Yet, the complexity and longevity of large-scale plutons hinders a unified model for their emplacement and concomitant differentiation. This is [...]
Systemic impacts of low-carbon transition policies for housing in Innsbruck: Mapping the intersections of vulnerability and social justice with affected citizens and stakeholders
Published: 2024-12-11
Subjects: Human Geography
Decarbonizing the building sector is a key priority in the European energy transition, as it is responsible for more than a third of the EU's GHG emissions. To boost energy renovation rates and efforts to phase out fossil fuel-based heating systems, current energy policy directives tar-get in particular the promotion of energy efficiency. However, implementing technology-oriented solutions for [...]