Preprints
There are 7999 Preprints listed.
The case for continuing VIPER - a critical milestone on the journey back to the Moon
Published: 2025-07-02
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Planetary Sciences
NASA's VIPER mission was designed to explore the Moon's south pole region, with a primary objective of identifying and characterising volatile compounds such as water ice. Despite having been fully built and having passed all preflight environmental testing, the mission was cancelled by NASA in July 2024, and the rover remains in storage. In this paper we outline why it remains crucial that a [...]
Modeling Daily Plume Specific Smoke Concentrations for Health Effects Studies with Estimates of Fire Size, Plume Age, and Fuel Type
Published: 2025-05-15
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Health and Protection, Environmental Public Health, Statistical Models, Transport Phenomena
Inhaling smoke PM2.5 can cause adverse health effects ranging from acute (e.g., lung irritation) to chronic (e.g., lung cancer). Acute health effects have immediate implications for public health, requiring rapid response to minimize harm during an exposure window. Estimating acute health effects requires short-term (e.g., daily) estimates of fire-specific smoke PM2.5 concentrations at ground [...]
Most bivalves and gastropods calcify indistinguishably from dual clumped isotope equilibrium
Published: 2025-05-14
Subjects: Education
Molluscan shell-carbonates are extensively used to reconstruct paleo-temperatures at sub-annual resolution. The accurate application of two widely used temperature proxies, the shell carbonate oxygen isotope (ẟ18O) and carbonate clumped isotope (Δ47) composition, is based on the assumption that kinetics in the DIC-H2O-CaCO3 system were either absent or invariant during shell formation and/or [...]
Climate Change Impacts on Inland and Black Sea Marine Fisheries: Risks, Adaptation, and Sustainable Investment Pathways
Published: 2025-05-16
Subjects: Agriculture, Animal Sciences, Other Life Sciences
This paper explores climate adaptation and sustainable investment strategies within the fisheries and aquaculture sectors, with a focus on vulnerable regions such as the Black Sea basin. As climate change intensifies environmental pressures and socioeconomic vulnerabilities, building resilience requires an integrated approach combining localized adaptation, mitigation and strategic investment. [...]
The evolution of methane production rates from young to mature thermokarst 1 lakes
Published: 2025-03-31
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Thermokarst lakes, formed by permafrost thaw in the Arctic, are hotspots for methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and are expected to double permafrost carbon emissions by the end of the century. While the implications of ongoing permafrost thaw on methane dynamics within these lakes have been modeled, here we provide empirical data on methane production dynamics as lakes evolve from [...]
Holocene deglaciation of Prudhoe Dome, northwest Greenland
Published: 2025-05-16
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology
Projections of future sea-level rise benefit from understanding the response of past ice sheets to interglacial warmth. Constraints on the extent of inland Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) recession during the Middle Holocene (~8 – 4 ka) are limited because geological records of a smaller-than-modern phase largely remain beneath the modern ice sheet. We drilled through 509 m of firn and ice at Prudhoe [...]
The Largest Crop Production Shocks: Magnitude, Causes and Frequency
Published: 2025-09-04
Subjects: Agricultural Science, Agriculture, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Food Science, Risk Analysis
Food is the foundation of our society. We often take it for granted, but stocks are rarely available for longer than a year, and food production can be disrupted by catastrophic events, both locally and globally. To highlight such major risks to the food system, we analyzed FAO crop production data from 1961 to 2023 to find the largest crop production shock for every country and identify its [...]
Accuracy and realism of CMIP6 candidate models in capturing dry, moist, and extreme precipitation anomalies in the Laurentian Great Lakes.
Published: 2025-05-15
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Great Lakes are the world’s largest freshwater system, and understanding how Great Lakes precipitation dynamics will be modified by climate change is of critical importance. As the Great Lakes straddles a semi-arid to humid transitional region, trustworthy precipitation predictions must be generated by models that can accurately capture both thermodynamical and dynamical drivers of regional [...]
Bayesian reconstruction of sea-level and hydroclimates from coastal landform inversion: application to Santa Cruz (US) and Gulf of Corinth app
Published: 2024-02-10
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geology, Geomorphology, Tectonics and Structure
Quantifying Quaternary sea-level changes and hydroclimatic conditions is an important challenge given their intricate relation with paleo-climate, ice-sheets and geodynamics. The world’s coastlines provide an enormous geomorphologic archive, from which forward landscape evolution modelling studies have shown their potential to unravel paleo sea-levels, albeit at the cost of assumptions on the [...]
How to deal w___ missing input data
Published: 2025-03-14
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Hydrology, Water Resource Management
Deep learning hydrologic models have made their way from research to applications. More and more national hydrometeorological agencies, hydro power operators, and engineering consulting companies are building Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models for operational use cases. All of these efforts come across similar sets of challenges—challenges that are different from those in controlled scientific [...]
Peak loads, health, and energy equality. The effects of demand-side electricity efficiency interventions
Published: 2025-05-16
Subjects: Engineering, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Sustainability
Electrification is key for climate change mitigation but, if unmanaged, risks increasing energy poverty, inequalities, and peak electricity demand. While demand response to reduce peak electricity demand has been the subject of extensive research, the effects of energy efficiency interventions for wider health system and socioeconomic outcomes are less studied. This study assesses the impact of [...]
Well-log Analysis of Shale Gas Reservoirs
Published: 2026-07-08
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Well-logs provide continuous information about rocks and their pore fluid properties. Typical well-logs such as gamma-ray, density, neutron, sonic, and resistivity logs have been traditionally used to estimate shale volume, porosity, lithology, and fluid saturation in conventional oil and gas exploration, where shale formations are treated as hydrocarbon source rock and sandstone and carbonate [...]
Peak demand, consumer costs, and socioeconomic effects: Considerations for distributed generation and energy storage
Published: 2025-05-16
Subjects: Engineering, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Sustainability
Electrification is a key approach for reducing greenhouse gas emissions but will increase peak demand, challenging electricity systems. Distributed generation (DG) from solar photovoltaic (PV) panels and battery storage are often offered as potential solutions. This study uses a previously validated agent-based model of residential electricity demand to assess the impact of solar DG on peak [...]
The Motion and Tilts of Subsurface Floats due to Surface Waves
Published: 2025-05-16
Subjects: Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Subsurface and nearly neutrally-buoyant floats can be stable, well-behaved platforms for measuring ocean dynamics in the near-surface wave zone. Here, we measure and model the wave-induced tilt of one such platform. We use data from Lagrangian floats built at the Applied Physics Laboratory (APL/UW) and carrying a Nortek Signature1000 Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler with an AHRS (Attitude and [...]
Future changes in seasonal drought in Australia
Published: 2024-05-30
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Climate change is expected to exacerbate the frequency and intensity of drought in many water-limited regions. However, future drought changes in Australia –the driest inhabited continent on Earth– have remained stubbornly uncertain due to a lack of model agreement in projected precipitation changes in most regions. We use an ensemble of future projections from the National Hydrological [...]