Preprints
There are 6976 Preprints listed.
Increasing lifetime exposure to extreme fire weather under climate change in Europe
Published: 2026-05-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Climate change increases fire weather globally. Hot, dry and windy conditions raise the likelihood of fires igniting and spreading and make suppression more challenging. With further warming, fire weather is projected to intensify across Europe, yet implications for today’s young generations remain unclear. Here, we analyse lifetime exposure to extreme fire weather across Europe using an ensemble [...]
High-ambition climate action in all sectors can achieve a 59% greenhouse gas emissions reduction in Korea by 2035
Published: 2025-08-13
Subjects: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Under the Paris Agreement’s ratchet mechanism, countries are expected to enhance their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), including new targets for 2035. For Korea, one of the world’s largest CO2 emitters, the challenge is to strengthen its existing policy framework to not only ensure the achievement of its 2030 NDC but also support a more ambitious 2035 pathway. This study employs an [...]
Validation of ICESat-2 ATL13 Version 7 Water Surface Elevation on Small High-Latitude Rivers: A Case Study of the River Dee and River Don, Aberdeenshire, Scotland
Published: 2026-03-07
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Hydrology, Remote Sensing, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Spatial Science
Satellite Laser Altimetry represents an attractive opportunity to supplement the sparsely distributed in situ gauge network used to monitor rivers. The performance of satellite laser altimetry on small, high latitude streams has however been characterized as being poor. This research will be validating ICESat-2 ATL13 version 7 measured water surface elevations (WSE) for the River Dee (average [...]
Beyond universal access: mapping regional inequalities and spatial coldspots in India’s WaSH sector toward SDG 6
Published: 2026-04-17
Subjects: Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
National averages can conceal significant sectoral disparities and long-standing subnational injustices, despite the fact that India’s flagship programs had significantly improved access to water and sanitation. This report provided a thorough, data-driven evaluation of the water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) in all 37 Indian states and union territories (UTs) using 25 indicators. Pearson’s [...]
Source effects in higher-order ambient seismic field correlations
Published: 2025-12-05
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Seismic interferometry of the ambient seismic field is widely used for surface wave imaging. It typically requires synchronous station recordings and assumes uniform noise source distributions. Higher-order correlations, such as the re-correlation of direct waves (C2), enable imaging with asynchronous data and have been shown to improve an incomplete source distribution. Using field data and [...]
Statistical rock physics inversion for assessing source rock properties from seismic signatures: an application to the Canning Basin, Australia
Published: 2025-07-15
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistics and Probability
Quantifying source rock properties is essential for subsurface characterization but remains a high-dimensional and nonlinear inverse problem. A statistical rock physics inversion workflow is implemented to efficiently estimate source rock properties from seismic and well-log data and quantify associated uncertainty. A thermal-maturation-dependent rock physics model is calibrated through Monte [...]
MACROM: An Optimal Control Model for Balancing Climate Change Abatement and Damage Trade-offs
Published: 2026-02-11
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, Climate, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment
The current pace of global emissions reduction is inadequate to meet the Paris Agreement temperature target of 1.5°C. While carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is increasingly viewed as necessary to meet these targets, questions remain about the optimal scale and timing of deployment when both costs and climate damages are considered. Here we present MACROM, an optimal control climate-economic model [...]
Global warming strengthens atmospheric ducting
Published: 2026-03-29
Subjects: Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Atmospheric ducts (ADs) provide efficient electromagnetic wave channels for beyond line-of-sight (BLOS) propagation and can serve as a sensitive diagnostic factor for the change of lower atmosphere. Based on the ERA5 model-level reanalysis data (1979–2024), a global-scale assessment of the response of AD evolution to global warming has been revealed for the first time. The occurrence probability, [...]
Scholte-wave Adjoint Tomography for Building Low-frequency, Offshore Shear-wave Velocity Models
Published: 2026-02-12
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology
Field observations have shown that low-frequency (sub-1 Hz) Scholte waves retrieved from ocean-bottom node (OBN) data are strongly influenced by large-scale velocity heterogeneities such as salt bodies, underscoring their potential for offshore model building. However, procedures for translating this sensitivity into reliable subsur- face velocity models remains poorly understood. Motivated by [...]
Global hyper-resolution groundwater dataset for assessing historical and future groundwater dynamics
Published: 2025-09-18
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Planetary Hydrology, Planetary Sciences
Sustainable management of global groundwater is a key societal challenge and central to Sustainable Development Goals. To address limited observations and coarse global models, we present a global hyper-resolution dataset of monthly groundwater heads and water table depth at 30 arc-seconds (~1 km), simulated by GLOBGM, a global groundwater flow model. The data set follows ISIMIP protocols and [...]
Assessing uncertainty in source rock properties using Monte Carlo basin modeling: Application to the Canning Basin, Australia
Published: 2025-07-23
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Geophysics and Seismology, Oil, Gas, and Energy, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Risk Analysis, Statistics and Probability, Stratigraphy
This study presents a Monte Carlo basin modeling framework for quantifying uncertainty in source rock property predictions by integrating geological, geophysical, and geochemical inputs. The approach accounts for variability in petrological parameters from rock physics inversion, paleo-erosion magnitudes, organic facies properties, and boundary conditions to simulate source rock properties such [...]
Decadal Evolution of Supraglacial Hydrology on the Nivlisen Ice Shelf: From Localized Ponding to Spatially Synchronized Hydrofracture Forcing (2015-2026)
Published: 2026-03-27
Subjects: Computational Engineering, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Materials Science and Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, Physics
Understanding the mechanical response of Antarctic ice shelves to surface meltwater is critical for evaluating their structural stability. This study presents 11 austral summer seasons (AS 2015-2016 to AS 2025-2026) assessment of supraglacial melt pond dynamics and their mechanical implications for the Nivlisen Ice Shelf grounding zone using Landsat-8/9 imagery combined with in-situ validation [...]
A quantitative assessment of the reliability and feasibility of process-based urban stormwater quality models: Towards new evaluation criteria
Published: 2026-02-13
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering
Hydrologic models have been increasingly used as a numerical tool to support urban stormwater management. Evaluation of modeling approaches helps identify the strength and weakness of a model to meet end-user requirements. However, traditional model evaluations only focus on the technical performance of a model, whereas very few studies have been conducted to quantitatively evaluate practical [...]
MJO Phase-Response Diagnostic Skill Reflects Convective Regime Contingency Beyond Coupling Strength Across Tropical Sites
Published: 2026-03-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
MJO phase composites are the standard tool for building tropical rainfall diagnostic frameworks. The coupling strength between the MJO phase and local rainfall is routinely used to justify their application. Whether coupling strength alone guarantees diagnostic skill — or whether the nature of the underlying convective regime is the additional governing condition — has not been examined. We [...]
GEOCHEMICAL DIAGNOSTICS OF COAL GENOTYPES: METHOD, CALIBRATION, AND BASIN TYPOLOGY
Published: 2026-03-10
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This study presents a geochemical method for discriminating coal types based on vitrinite maceral composition (telinite vs. collinite), using trace element ratios normalized to a reference aluminum content of 1.5%. Analysis of 146 samples from 13 coal basins demonstrates that conventional geochemical proxies (V/Ni, Ni/Co, U/Th, V/Cr) are unreliable for paleoenvironmental interpretation, whereas [...]