Preprints
There are 7999 Preprints listed.
A scoping review to map research gaps and opportunities relating to heat-related health hazards in countries surrounding Lake Victoria, Africa.
Published: 2026-06-11
Subjects: Climate, Environmental Public Health, Physical and Environmental Geography, Sustainability
Urban populations in sub-Saharan Africa are at rising risks of climate-related health hazards due to global climate change and uncontrolled rapid urbanization. Despite the increasing recognition of these challenges, the extent to which urban climates impact health outcomes in Africa remains poorly understood. East African countries surrounding the Lake Victoria Basin (Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, [...]
Model Construction and Retrospective Validation of Large Earthquake Prediction
Published: 2026-06-26
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Based on the hypothesis that gravity-driven crustal displacement generates earthquakes and facilitates crustal material migration, and following the general law that the velocity of generalized flow in a steady-state system is proportional to the driving force and inversely proportional to the system’s internal resistance, a relationship between the frequency of large earthquakes and crustal [...]
Deep learning identification of SST teleconnections driving early-winter North Atlantic climate
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate, Meteorology, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Seasonal predictability over the North Atlantic-European (NAE) sector is strongly modulated by the background climate state, particularly in early winter. In this season, different ENSO teleconnections have been reported before and after the 1990s. However, these studies rely on linear analysis, and the reasons for this lack of stationarity and its implications for seasonal forecasting have not [...]
A 10,000-Year Global Stochastic Tropical Cyclone Catalog with Wind-Dependent Track Transitions (WHITS)
Published: 2026-05-21
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Risk Analysis
Reliable assessment of tropical cyclone risk is limited by the short and spatially uneven historical record, especially for rare, high-intensity landfalls that dominate insured loss. We present WHITS, the Wind-focused Hurricane Interactive Track Simulator, a non-parametric semi-Markov model that generates a 10,000-year global synthetic catalog of tropical cyclone tracks. WHITS builds new storms [...]
Optimal Modeling and County-Level Applications for the Spatial Prediction of Soil Organic Matter: A Case Study of Thirteen Counties in the Yellow River Basin
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Civil and Environmental Engineering
Soil organic matter (SOM) is a key indicator for assessing soil health and the carbon sequestration potential, and its precise spatial prediction is vital for ensuring sustainable agricultural development. Machine learning has emerged as a core tool in digital soil mapping. However, in complex landscapes such as the Yellow River Basin, the selection of models and the translation of their [...]
Seasonal ice dynamics control the timing of crevasse drainage at a fast-flowing outlet glacier
Published: 2025-10-07
Subjects: Glaciology
Crevasse field drainage transfers at least half of the seasonal runoff from the surface to the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet, but the patterns of drainage are complex and spatio-temporally heterogenous. To better understand controls on crevasse drainage processes, we use an automated deep learning method to map the seasonal filling and drainage of water-filled crevasses at Sermeq Kujalleq (Store [...]
Measurement and Tracking of Blowing and Falling Snow Particles Using an Automotive 1550 nm LiDAR
Published: 2026-06-26
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Fresh Water Studies, Glaciology, Hydrology, Meteorology
The prevalence and affordability of fast-scanning commercially available LiDARs are increasing due to the rapid expansion of the autonomous vehicle industry. These LiDAR units can provide >1 Hz measurements of millions of laser reflections at ranges of hundreds of meters with high precision. In this study we investigate the often overlooked 1550 nm wavelength LiDAR for measurements of airborne [...]
A Stable Column ΔXCH₄/ΔXCO₂ Ratio over Los Angeles (2011–2025): An Inventory-Independent Test of Urban Methane Policy
Published: 2026-10-05
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We extend the column-averaged CH₄ and CO₂ (XCH₄, XCO₂) record from the California Laboratory for Atmospheric Remote Sensing (CLARS) through July 2025, spanning 15 years over the Los Angeles megacity. CLARS retrievals show persistent enhancements of both gases above the free-tropospheric background, with a strong excess correlation (R = 0.93) and an emission ratio ΔXCH₄/ΔXCO₂ ≈ 5.1 ppb ppm⁻¹ that [...]
Operationalising EMS-98 Damage Classification: A UAV-to-GIS Pipeline for Macroseismic Survey Support
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Databases and Information Systems, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Nature and Society Relations, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science
Post-earthquake macroseismic surveying often relies on ground-based visual inspections that are slow, costly, and difficult to scale in the immediate aftermath of a seismic event. Deep-learning damage detectors have advanced substantially in recent years, yet their outputs are rarely translated into operational deployment tools that yield a georeferenced dataframe of buildings aligned with the [...]
Deforestation Edge Effects on Soil Moisture Persistence in the Amazon Basin: Observational Evidence for Lateral Hydrological Degradation and Minimum Viable Restoration Scales
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Environmental Monitoring, Forest Sciences, Hydrology
Deforestation in the Amazon basin degrades not only the cleared land but also the hydrological function of adjacent intact forest. Here we combine 10 years of SMAP Level 4 root-zone soil moisture (9 km, 2015 to 2024) with Hansen Global Forest Change data (30 m) to quantify how proximity to deforestation edges affects soil moisture persistence in intact forest across the Amazon basin. We classify [...]
First Observational Evidence That Biological Giant CCN Control Urban Rainfall Character: A Natural Experiment from Islamabad's Paper Mulberry Removal
Published: 2026-05-22
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Earth Sciences, Hydrology, Meteorology
Modeling studies predict that biological aerosol, specifically pollen acting as giant cloud condensation nuclei (GCCN), can modify precipitation character by initiating collision-coalescence and warm rain in shallow cloud (Steiner et al., 2015; Wozniak et al., 2018; Paukert et al., 2025). No observational study has tested this prediction. We exploit a natural experiment, the removal of ~29,000 [...]
The influence of speed and scale of carbon dioxide removal on overshoot peak temperature and duration
Published: 2026-06-11
Subjects: Other Earth Sciences, Other Physical Sciences and Mathematics
CO2 emissions are pushing global temperatures higher, with the Paris Agreement temperature target of limiting warming to no more than 1.5°C above the preindustrial average likely to be exceeded within the next two decades. Overshooting this target before reducing global temperature by the end of the century is increasingly viewed as a potential pathway to still meet the Paris Agreement target, [...]
The limits of ecological decodability of a geospatial foundation-model embedding: a registered evaluation of AlphaEarth over shallow Great Barrier Reef habitats
Published: 2026-08-25
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Annual satellite embedding fields compress a year of multi-sensor observation into one vector per 10 m pixel, worldwide. We test what ecological information the AlphaEarth embedding holds about shallow (< 10 m) Great Barrier Reef habitats, and where its limits lie. Every candidate output was registered with a pass gate before testing, evaluated under one fixed protocol, and reported pass or [...]
EARLY PLIOCENE DRAWDOWN AND EXPANSION OF THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA ICE SHEET IN MARGUERITE BAY
Published: 2026-06-01
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Glaciology, Sedimentology, Stratigraphy
The Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet (APIS) is situated in a rapidly and persistently warming region of Antarctica and its behavior under warmer conditions projected for Earth’s future remains poorly constrained. Interpretations of stratigraphic records of ice-sheet change from periods of warmth in Earth’s past are essential in providing boundary conditions for estimates of future ice loss and its [...]
A regional assessment of methane emissions from natural gas production in the Transylvanian Basin, Romania
Published: 2026-10-21
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Romania hosts one of the largest and oldest natural gas production sectors in Europe, yet direct measurements of methane emissions from its principal gas-producing region, the Transylvanian Basin, remain limited. Here, we present the first basin-scale, measurement-based assessment of methane emissions from natural gas production facilities in the Transylvanian Basin based on 160 methane emission [...]