Preprints
There are 8000 Preprints listed.
Constructing Prospective Multiregional Input--Output Tables via Scenario-Constrained Optimization for Future Environmental Footprint Assessment
Published: 2026-07-11
Subjects: Environmental Engineering
Prospective multi-regional input--output (MRIO) tables that integrate scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs) support forward-looking environmental footprint analysis, but the trade-off between historical structural fidelity and scenario compliance has not been quantified. We constructed 12 prospective MRIO tables from the EXIOBASE 2019 and IMAGE SSP2 scenario for 2035, including a [...]
Assessing and Correcting Bias in Gridded Reference Evapotranspiration over Agricultural Lands Across the Contiguous United States
Published: 2026-02-19
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Climate, Environmental Monitoring, Geographic Information Sciences, Hydrology, Multivariate Analysis, Remote Sensing, Spatial Science, Water Resource Management
Gridded reference evapotranspiration (ETₒ) data are widely used for agricultural water management and remote sensing evapotranspiration (RSET) models, but biases can arise where coarse meteorological inputs fail to capture agricultural microclimates. We investigated biases in the gridMET ETₒ product across irrigated agricultural areas of the contiguous United States using ETₒ calculated from 793 [...]
Historical biogeography of Middle-East mangroves: paleobotanical evidence
Published: 2026-06-11
Subjects: Paleontology
This paper reconstructs the origin, diversification, and decline of Middle East (ME) mangroves from the Late Cretaceous to the present using the MESMA database, a comprehensive compilation of fossil pollen and macrofossil records integrated with paleogeographic, tectonic, climatic and sea-level evidence. To date, global paleobiogeographical and evolutionary syntheses of mangroves have emphasized [...]
Ocean-driven reactivation of basal melt and dynamic instability beneath Pine Island Glacier ice shelf since 2018
Published: 2026-07-17
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Pine Island Glacier (PIG) is Antarctica's largest contributor to sea-level rise and a major source of mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Its ice shelf is vulnerable to incursions of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) and has experienced rapid grounding-line retreat, flow acceleration, and increased ice discharge since the 1990s. Here, we reconstruct a 20-year record of basal melt rates [...]
El Niño amplified food insecurity in early modern Europe
Published: 2025-12-18
Subjects: Social and Behavioral Sciences
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant source of global inter annual climate variability, yet its long-term influence on food security remains comparatively underexplored. Drawing on a recently compiled dataset of 160 European famines and a new high-resolution ENSO reconstruction, we show a robust correspondence between positive ENSO anomalies (El Niño events) and subsistence [...]
Permafrost degradation as a heterogeneous mosaic of tipping and non-tipping behaviour
Published: 2026-08-04
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geomorphology, Other Earth Sciences
Permafrost thaw can occur as widespread gradual thaw, or as abrupt thaw. Abrupt thaw can occur on decadal or shorter timescales and produce large, often irreversible changes to landscapes, ecosystems, and infrastructure. These changes are frequently described as tipping points, yet the underlying mechanisms differ substantially in their feedback structure, reversibility, and capacity for [...]
Coupling between Walker and Hadley circulations mediated by low cloud feedback
Published: 2026-08-28
Subjects: Atmospheric Sciences, Climate
The tropical Pacific hosts the primary region of deep convection and forms the shared ascending branch of the Walker and Hadley circulations, which regulate the distribution of energy, angular momentum, and moisture across the climate system. Despite their importance and spatial entanglement, the dynamical coupling between these two circulations remains poorly understood. Here we show that the [...]
An efficient method for deriving volatility basis sets from thermodenuder and particle levitation data.
Published: 2026-06-12
Subjects: Environmental Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Transport Phenomena
Deriving a volatility basis set (VBS) from measurements of particle evaporation in a thermodenuder or single-particle levitation apparatus has traditionally relied on repeated numerical solution of the evaporation equations to find the VBS that best reproduces observed particle sizes. This approach is computationally demanding and offers little insight into the factors that control the retrieval. [...]
Interdisciplinary large-scale research to advance the science and management of drying river networks facing climate change
Published: 2026-08-28
Subjects: Biodiversity
Drying River Networks (DRNs) are increasingly widespread due to climate change and human pressures, yet their ecological and societal importance has long been underestimated. This paper synthesizes the interdisciplinary outcomes of the DRYvER (Securing Biodiversity, Functional Integrity and Ecosystem Services in Drying River Networks) project, which developed an innovative framework for [...]
On the retreat of lagoon-terminating glaciers: sometimes fresh, sometimes salty
Published: 2026-07-12
Subjects: Geomorphology, Glaciology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Coastal lagoon-terminating glaciers flow into water bodies of variable salinity and temperature, shaped by mixing meltwater, ocean water, and ice. They remain understudied yet increasingly important as coastal glacier margins retreat globally. Lagoon salinity influences circulation through interactions with buoyant subglacial discharge. Water temperature, modulated by ocean connectivity and [...]
Scale-Aware Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Gold Prospectivity Mapping: Evidence-Range Audits for Exploration Targeting
Published: 2026-08-04
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Mineral exploration is expensive because most land has not been tested directly. A missing deposit record is therefore not the same as a true absence record. This paper develops a scale-aware positive-unlabeled learning framework for gold prospectivity mapping using public geological and mineral-occurrence data. The main method is the Non-Gold Evidence Transfer Field (NGETF). NGETF removes every [...]
Large-Scale Mapping and Graph-Theoretic Characterization of Arctic Tundra Capillary Networks From Submeter Satellite Imagery
Published: 2026-06-24
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Abstract— Tundra capillary networks (TCNs) are visible surface-drainage features associated with ice-wedge polygon terrain that can influence lateral surface-water redistribution across Arctic landscapes. However, TCN systems remain poorly characterized at regional scales because their narrow morphology, variable surface expression, and submeter scale have limited the development of scalable [...]
Where to Watch the Water: Multi-Sensor Network Design Optimization for Inland Flood Detection
Published: 2026-06-24
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Geomorphology, Hydrology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Water Resource Management
Inland flood detection is often constrained less by sensor availability than by where sensors are placed along branching river networks, especially in ungauged headwaters where floods often initiate. We present a three-phase, decisionfocused framework for designing basin-by-basin multi-sensor flood detection networks that coordinate water-level, discharge, and camera sensors while explicitly [...]
GSDD, A Catchment-Scale Global Streamflow Drought Database based on Observed Daily Discharge
Published: 2026-06-13
Subjects: Engineering
Streamflow droughts increasingly threaten global water security, hydropower production, and freshwater ecosystems. Understanding observed streamflow drought characteristics is key to water supply management, energy and food production. However, global drought datasets primarily rely on meteorological indicators (e.g., precipitation and evapotranspiration), while a few offers grid-based [...]
Large-scale evidence of behavioral responses and adaptation to wildfire smoke
Published: 2026-06-27
Subjects: Environmental Public Health, Environmental Studies, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Using 371 million bikeshare trips across 12 US cities from 2010 to 2024, we find that wildfire smoke reduces urban cycling substantially and nonlinearly, and that populations with more prior smoke exposures avoid cycling more, not less - a pattern consistent with adaptation rather than habituation. Leveraging day-to-day variation in smoke in a distributed lag nonlinear model with high-dimensional [...]