Preprints
There are 8000 Preprints listed.
ECMWF SEAS5 Seasonal Precipitation Outlook and Preliminary Rainfall-Based Flood Screening for Iraq: October 2026–January 2027
Published: 2026-08-12
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Risk Analysis
This preprint provides a hydrological and hydrogeological interpretation of ECMWF SEAS5 monthly precipitation forecasts for Iraq from October 2026 through January 2027. The analysis uses the ECMWF System 51 ensemble mean initialized on 1 August 2026. The downloaded time-mean total precipitation rate was converted from metres per second to monthly precipitation depth in millimetres using the [...]
A technical review on underground hydrogen storage potential in porous media: A dynamic reservoir simulation approach
Published: 2026-07-17
Subjects: Education, Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
As the global demand for energy continues to climb and the urgency for carbon-neutral alternatives grows, hydrogen becomes increasingly prominent as a clean energy source [1], [2]. The research reviewed underground hydrogen storage potentials, discussing the distinction between the working gas and cushion gas that are critical in maintaining pressure and optimal injection conditions. Emphasis on [...]
How Pre-Existing Strength Heterogeneities and Differential Extension Shaped Rift Initiation and Propagation in the South China Sea: An Analog Perspective
Published: 2026-07-02
Subjects: Earth Sciences
Continental rifting rarely occurs synchronously along strike and with uniform width. Instead, it commonly involves diachronous, progressive opening and rift propagation resulting in V-shaped rifts. Rotational, scissor‐like opening is a common model explaining V‐shaped rifts near plate tectonic rotational poles with steep extension gradients along-strike. However, the mechanisms driving V‐shaped [...]
Out of Afar: the first hominin migration? Long-term landscape changes in the Afar region and implications for hominin bipedalism
Published: 2025-07-18
Subjects: Paleontology
Tectonic and geomorphological processes in East Africa have long shaped the environments within which hominins evolved, with the Afar Depression and adjacent Main Ethiopian Rift, created through rifting and plate reorganisation, providing an important setting in which landscape isolation may have influenced evolutionary opportunity. Climate change in Africa has traditionally been regarded as the [...]
Machine learning versus ETAS for earthquake forecasting in the Sea of Marmara: a leakage-audited negative result and a closed-form scoring artifact
Published: 2026-07-06
Subjects: Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
We ask whether machine learning adds 30-day earthquake-forecasting value beyond modern ETAS in the Sea of Marmara, a locked seismic gap beneath Istanbul, once leakage and scoring artifacts are controlled. On a homogenized KOERI catalog, feature causality is machine-checkable, and comparisons follow a pre-specified rule: paired block-bootstrap intervals on likelihood and ranking must agree. The [...]
Bacterial tetraether lipid biosynthesis links membrane adaption to paleoclimate proxies
Published: 2026-06-15
Subjects: Life Sciences
Membrane-spanning tetraether lipids are best known as an adaptive mechanism of archaea for stabilizing their membranes under extreme conditions. Bacteria typically rely on bilayer-forming phospholipids, making the occurrence of membrane-spanning branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) in some bacteria highly unusual. BrGDGTs occur globally in soils and sediments and exhibit [...]
Samoa Basin Abyssal Mapping: Box Coring Leg
Published: 2026-06-15
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
This cruise report describes work from leg three of the NOAA American Samoa Abyssal Mapping effort, OPR-T900-KR-26. Leg one preceded this effort and collected ship-based acoustic data. Leg two collected autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) data and began before, continued contemporaneously, and finished subsequently to leg three. The USGS field activity number assigned to this expedition is [...]
Three gaps for foundation models to address in satellite remote sensing of inland waters
Published: 2026-10-09
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Fresh Water Studies, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Long-term Earth observation of inland waters depends on continuity between satellite missions, adequate combinations of spectral, spatial and temporal resolution, and representative calibration and validation datasets. Discontinuities and trade-offs in these components constrain the records available for studying inland waters and their change. We examine three gaps affecting inland water remote [...]
Experiential and Collective Responses to Health Implications of Extreme Weather Events
Published: 2026-09-03
Subjects: Education, Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Extreme weather events, including wildfires, are becoming more frequent, intense, and consequential for human health. Scientific advances have improved our ability to characterize hazards and the socioeconomic constraints shaping exposure, but these dimensions are not always integrated throughout the development of environmental health knowledge. Meanwhile, broader publics, although often not [...]
Teaching geomedia literacy in school geography: Teachers’ perspectives on students’ interpretive and productive skills
Published: 2026-06-25
Subjects: Education, Educational Methods, Geographic Information Sciences, Geography, Language and Literacy Education, Other Geography, Science and Mathematics Education, Spatial Science
Maps, diagrams, images, and visualisations are central to how geographical knowledge is learned and communicated in school. Drawing on 20 interviews with Finnish lower and upper secondary geography teachers, this article analyses geomedia literacy as disciplinary literacy through an abductive, theory-informed thematic analysis. Teachers described geomedia as the everyday representational language [...]
Ecosystem Metabolism as an Early Warning Indicator of Lake Algal Blooms
Published: 2026-06-15
Subjects: Environmental Sciences, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology
Algal blooms represent ecosystem state shifts that degrade drinking water, restrict recreation, threaten public health, and lower property values. Detecting blooms in advance on management relevant timescales of days to weeks can support proactive intervention. Early warning statistics derived from indicator time series offer a framework for detecting state shifts, but the use of lake metabolic [...]
Coupled geophysical and technoeconomic growth constraints on geological carbon storage scaleup with an application to the UK
Published: 2026-07-06
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Engineering
Geological carbon dioxide storage is central to meeting many national climate change commitments. Yet large-scale deployment remains poorly constrained by both techno-economic limits on how rapidly the technology can scale and physics-based constraints imposed by the behavior of the subsurface. We here develop a modelling framework to identify feasible CO2 storage scaleup trajectories constrained [...]
Climate-mode-conditioned exposure of a sporting mega-event: an event-based assessment of Rugby World Cup 2027 in Australia
Published: 2026-06-30
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Studies, Geography, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The environmental risk of sporting mega-events is usually assessed from host-city climatologies or, more recently, from tournament design (venue, date, kick-off time). Both overlook a distinct axis: the interannual state of the large-scale climate modes into which a given edition falls. We ask to what extent the phase of the El Ni\~no--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) [...]
Globally expanding lithium mining could threaten endemic species in biodiversity hotspots
Published: 2026-07-01
Subjects: Biodiversity, Environmental Sciences, Sustainability
Electric vehicles (EVs) are widely framed as a technological solution to the climate crisis. However, the mineral extraction supplying EV battery production can cause serious environmental damage, threatening ecosystems and biodiversity from local to global scales. Lithium, a key EV battery component, is experiencing an enormous mining boom, which could drive species population declines and [...]
Data-Driven Extraction of Spatiotemporal Causal Networks of Extreme Snowfall Based on Long-Term Observations in the Japanese Archipelago
Published: 2026-07-01
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and long-term trends of extreme weather events is crucial for climate risk assessment. However, extracting causal network structures and underlying trends from observational data remains challenging due to large-scale common influences, spurious correlations, and historical missing values. In this study, we propose a generalized data-driven framework for [...]