Preprints
There are 8001 Preprints listed.
Megathrust Earthquakes Amplify Coastal Wave Hazards in Cascadia Under Rising Sea Levels
Published: 2026-08-31
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Along the Cascadia Subduction Zone, destructive megathrust earthquakes represent a significant coastal hazard. These events generate abrupt coseismic subsidence, instantaneously increasing relative sea level. In the coming decades, global sea level rise will continue to shift baseline coastal conditions, potentially enhancing earthquake-driven hazards. Here, we model how sea level rise, wave [...]
Hydrodynamic controls on mineral precipitation in porous media: From pore-scale clogging to continuum permeability upscaling
Published: 2026-08-20
Subjects: Hydrology
Mineral precipitation can sharply reduce permeability in reactive porous media, yet continuum models commonly represent this effect using fixed porosity-permeability relationships that do not account for hydrodynamic controls on precipitation localisation. Here we use pore-scale reactive transport simulations of calcite precipitation in six synthetic two-dimensional porous structures to examine [...]
Linking Hemispheric Warming Asymmetry to Anthropogenic Waste Heat
Published: 2026-10-15
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Physics
This paper proposes a potential link between the observed hemispheric warming asymmetry and the distribution of population and per capita energy consumption. Nearly 87% of the world’s population resides in the northern hemisphere, where per capita energy consumption has also been substantially higher than in the southern hemisphere. Consequently, anthropogenic waste heat discharged into the [...]
Annual 30 m leaf-on daytime land surface temperature composites across China from 2000 to 2024
Published: 2026-10-06
Subjects: Geography, Remote Sensing
Long-term, spatially detailed land surface temperature (LST) records are needed to compare thermal environments across heterogeneous landscapes, but combining fine spatial detail with nationwide coverage over decades remains challenging. We present Chinatherm30, annual 30 m leaf-on daytime LST composites across China for 2000--2024. Quality-screened Terra MODIS thermal targets were combined with [...]
A kinematic rupture generator for ground-motion simulations: Validation and scenarios in South Iceland
Published: 2026-06-04
Subjects: Civil Engineering, Tectonics and Structure
Physics-based ground-motion simulation can reduce epistemic uncertainty in regions with sparse strong-motion data, but hazard applications require rupture ensembles that are physically plausible, statistically controlled, and computationally efficient. We present a modular kinematic rupture generator for physics-based simulations (PBS) in which final slip, rupture speed ratio (VR/VS), and peak [...]
Lithologic Period Predicts Yttrium Enrichment in Western United States Stream Sediments
Published: 2026-11-01
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Design of Experiments and Sample Surveys, Earth Sciences, Geochemistry, Geology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Statistical Methodology, Statistical Models, Statistics and Probability
Screening ground for heavy rare earth prospecting potential at regional scale depends upon archived geochemistry, because favorable intrusive terrain in the western U.S. greatly exceeds what any drilling program could evaluate directly. This research examined whether the lithologic period of intrusive igneous terrain can reliably predict acid-leachable yttrium using only the stream sediment [...]
A Global Event-Based Benchmark for Tide and Surge Models Beyond the Tide Gauge
Published: 2026-09-18
Subjects: Oceanography, Other Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology
Coastal flood hindcasting and forecasting form the foundation of effective risk management in coastal regions. They drive emergency response efforts and inform the design of coastal defenses, adaptation strategies, and evidence-based policy. Global coastal sea level models are traditionally validated using time-series regression metrics (i.e., Root Mean Square Error [RMSE], Mean Absolute Error [...]
Transferability of ML emulators for polar RCM surface melt under different forcings: Limitations and recommendations
Published: 2026-09-30
Subjects: Climate, Glaciology
Machine learning emulators provide a computationally efficient alternative to physically based regional climate and surface mass balance models, but their applicability depends on their ability to generalize beyond training conditions. In this study, we assess the transferability of a melt emulator trained on output from the regional climate model HIRHAM5 forced by ERA-Interim, CESM2, and [...]
A vertical vegetation structure model of the Earth
Published: 2026-10-06
Subjects: Computer Sciences, Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Forest Biology, Forest Management, Forest Sciences, Other Forestry and Forest Sciences, Research Methods in Life Sciences, Wood Science and Pulp, Paper Technology
Knowing the global distribution of vegetation structure is an essential prerequisite to better quantify, model, and manage carbon, water, energy, and biodiversity in the Earth system. Despite its recognized importance, vertical structure measurements remain sparse at global scales, limiting our understanding of the links between structure and ecosystem functions and resilience. Here we present [...]
Inside the Extinction Envelope: A Systemic Review and Meta-Analysis of Paleoclimate Extinction Markers with Comments on the Necessary Array of Last-Threshold Interventions
Published: 2026-09-14
Subjects: Life Sciences, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences
Every element of the causal chain that produced the five largest mass extinctions of the last half-billion years is presently active in the Earth system. The rate of the modern perturbation exceeds every peer-reviewed paleoclimate reference case. A six-intervention portfolio, deployed together at wartime industrial scale beginning now, is the physically necessary and sufficient response. The [...]
Comparing UNet and HRNet for Geomorphic Feature Extraction from Digital Terrain Model-Derived Land Surface Parameters
Published: 2026-08-20
Subjects: Environmental Monitoring, Geology, Geomorphology, Remote Sensing
Automated extraction of geomorphic features from high spatial resolution terrain data is important for environmental monitoring, geohazard assessment, and landscape change analysis. This study compares two convolutional neural network architectures, UNet and High-Resolution Network (HRNet), for semantic segmentation of mine benches and sinkholes from lidar-derived digital terrain models and land [...]
Super El Niño can raise coastal extreme sea-level risk tenfold
Published: 2026-09-30
Subjects: Physical Sciences and Mathematics
El Niño-Southern Oscillation is a dominant mode of global climate variability with a range of societally relevant impacts. However, its effect on global coastal sea-level extremes remains poorly quantified, especially for very strong ("super") El Niños, which are rare. Here we analyse global reanalyses, hindcasts, and reconstructions to quantify how El Niño alters extreme sea level frequencies [...]
Thermal time dominates satellite predictors for within-season wheat biomass estimation under spatial cross-validation
Published: 2025-12-18
Subjects: Agriculture, Life Sciences
Satellite imagery combined with machine learning (ML) is widely used to estimate crop above-ground biomass (AGB), but model accuracy at sites not used for training is rarely compared with simple phenological baselines. We evaluated how much Sentinel-1 (S1) backscatter, Sentinel-2 (S2) and PlanetScope (PS) spectral predictors, precipitation, and soil moisture add to accumulated growing degree days [...]
Fitful but sustained rupture of the 2026 Mw 7.6 Venezuela earthquake
Published: 2026-10-20
Subjects: Earth Sciences, Geophysics and Seismology, Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The devastating 2026 Venezuela earthquake was cataloged as a doublet of \Mw~7.2 and 7.5 events. Combining NISAR and ALOS-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar data, teleseismic source imaging, and ensemble Kalman inversion of multiple moment tensors and dynamic rupture simulations, we show that the 2026 Venezuela earthquake was instead a single \Mw~7.6 event with variable rupture speed and seismic moment [...]
Deep-learning-based denoising and interpolation of small displacements caused by fault slip using InSAR and GNSS data: Application to the 2019 Mw 6.2 Hyuga-nada earthquake
Published: 2026-08-31
Subjects: Applied Statistics, Earth Sciences
In recent years, deep learning techniques have become important tools in Solid Earth science, including geodesy. Previous studies have applied deep learning techniques to synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) or Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data, which are two major observation techniques of satellite geodesy, to mitigate noise or detect small signals. Because InSAR and [...]